Russian Regions Research Articles

Old Empires, Modern State: Legacies of Partitions on Voting Behaviour in the 2023 Polish Parliamentary Elections

Abstract The legacies of former partitions are still visible in today’s Poland in the economy, society and politics. Our article integrates the historical and geographical perspective into the study of electoral behaviour in Poland. We conduct a geographical description of electoral results in the 2023 parliamentary elections and determine how economic and cultural attributes related to different paths of development associated with the former partitions are reflected in the apparent spatial differences. We distinguish between direct and indirect influence. It is indirect when differences in economic development (e.g. changes in agrarian structures) or cultural transformations (e.g. secularisation) resulting from former policies are reflected in different electoral choices. The influence is direct if belonging to a former empire determines electoral behaviour regardless of the economic and cultural determinants of the vote. We found that the influence concerns primarily the former Russian and Austrian regions. The analysis is conducted at the county (powiat) level.

Regional Differences in the Spread of Pneumonia in Russia: A Comparative Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Situation in 2017–2021

Introduction: Pneumonia remains a respiratory disease of concern that keeps influencing morbidity and mortality throughout the world in the 21st century. Increased incidence rates of pneumonia have been registered in Russia for a long time. In this regard, regional surveillance seems relevant across the country for a better understanding of recent spatial differences in the disease spread and their fluctuations. Objective: To carry out a spatiotemporal analysis of regional differences in pneumonia prevalence in the adult population of Russia in 2017–2021 with a focus on pre- and COVID-19 pandemic periods, given the Russian long-term dynamics for 2010–2022. Materials and methods: The study covers the years 2017–2021 with sufficient data on pneumonia prevalence collected. Static and dynamic parameters were calculated for the compared pre- and pandemic periods. A series of cartograms developed using GIS tools made it possible to visualize the information obtained and assess the spatiotemporal situation of the process under study. Results: The long-term dynamics of pneumonia prevalence rates in the adult population in Russia was examined with the regional trends in 2017–2021 assessed. In 2017–2019, they rose in most regions of Russia but the growth rate did not exceed 30 %. In 2019–2021, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the pneumonia situation changed dramatically and the disease rates increased in most regions. A significant deterioration of the situation was observed in most of the European part of Russia with the growth rates ranging from 70 % to 90 %. The number of regions with a null increase in the pneumonia prevalence dropped from 25 to five. Conclusions: Changes in the regional differences in the disease prevalence in the adult population of Russia for 2017–2021 were assessed. The uneven interregional spread of pneumonia complicated during the pandemic compared with the pre-pandemic period. Increased growth rates of the disease prevalence of varying intensity were observed in 80 Russian regions.

ОЦЕНКА ПОТЕНЦИАЛА ЭНЕРГОСБЕРЕЖЕНИЯ В БЮДЖЕТНЫХ УЧРЕЖДЕНИЯХ В СИСТЕМЕ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ ЭНЕРГОРЕСУРСАМИ (СУЭР)

Developed and in operation since 2019, the information and analytical Energy Resources Management System of the Belgorod Region (ERMS) ensures the digitalization of processes related to the provision of measures to improve energy efficiency related to the powers of state authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments. The SEER uses methods for assessing the energy efficiency of large geographically distributed consumers of utility resources based on an individual analysis of the characteristics and heat consumption of individual buildings. Currently, the SEER includes information for 2,144 municipal and regional institutions in the Belgorod region, which operate in 5,332 buildings. Costs for energy resources and water in 2023 in these institutions amounted to 4.8 billion rubles; over the five years of operation of the SUER, they decreased by 8% under comparable conditions. Based on SEER data, the total savings potential that can be achieved in regional and municipal institutions of the Belgorod region is 14.3% of annual costs for energy resources and water, including 0.8% from organizational activities and 13.5% from technical measures with an average payback period of 6 years. During 2021–2024, pilot projects for the implementation of SEMS were implemented in 9 Russian regions and one organization, which showed savings potential ranging from 4.4 to 29.5%.

Two tales of Kushtau Hill movement: ethnic environmental mobilisation and perceived costs of neopatrimonialism

In recent years the number of environmental protests in Russian regions has been on the rise, despite the shrinking political opportunity structure. In the Bashkortostan republic, the Bashkir Soda Company's (BSC) decision to develop the Kushtau Hill for soda ash provoked an environmental campaign to save the mountain. The Kushtau Hill movement succeeded, despite the highly repressive response from regional government and its tight patrimonial link to the BSC - two conditions identified in the literature as unfavorable to protesters. How is environmental discontent successfully mobilised under a repressive government and embedded extractive practices? Drawing on semi-structured interviews with activists, I trace two interlinked pathways to successful mobilisation. The first one testifies to the role played by national organisations in sustaining environmental collective action. Under a shrinking opportunity structure for formal ENGOs, the Bashkir national organisation “Bashkort” provided the emerging movement with its experience of informal organisation. Its leadership successfully linked ethnic grievances to environmental mobilisation byclaiming the Bashkirs' special relation to the mountain. However, ethnic and neighbour ties did not prevent a repressive response from the regional government due to a limited scale of the mobilisation. The second story deals with framing processes that expand the scope of potential supporters beyond particularistic ties. Protesters highlighted the perceived costs of neopatrimonialism to justify their demands. This framing put the republic head as a scapegoat who secured interests of the federal centre and BSC, compromising the residents' ecological well-being. Therefore, Kushtau Hill activists attracted new members, not putting themselves into danger of being perceived as extremists that targeted a regime-dimension.

УПРАВЛЕНИЕ ЗАКУПОЧНОЙ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТЬЮ В НОВЫХ РЕГИОНАХ РОССИИ

In 2022, the sphere of public procurement was replenished with new entities - customers of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions, which became part of the Russian Federation. For obvious reasons, procurement regulation at the initial stage was established for them in a simplified manner. The paper analyzes the regulatory framework of procurement management in new regions of Russia, highlighting problematic issues arising for these customers from the change in the basis of legal regulation of the procurement of goods, works, services for state and municipal needs of these regions. It is noted that new Russian regions were able to achieve high results in terms of procurement volumes already in 2023. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that for the first time in Russian science, the legal regulation of procurement in new regions of the Russian Federation, which became part of it in 2022, was studied and analyzed. The purpose of the paper is to analyze law enforcement practice and develop recommendations for use in procurement activities by customers in new territories, as well as when training specialists in the field of procurement for these regions. The work uses general scientific research methods: comparison, analysis, and the method of expert assessments.

Time Series Forecasting of Cardiovascular Mortality: Machine Learning Based on State Economic and Local Medical Data.

This study focuses on the complex interplay of healthcare, economic factors, and population dynamics, addressing a research gap in regional-level models that integrate diverse features within a temporal framework. Our primary objective is to develop an advanced temporal model for predicting cardiovascular mortality in Russian regions by integrating global and local healthcare features with economic and population dynamics. Utilizing a dataset from the Almazov Center's Department of Mortality Performance Monitoring, covering 94 regions and 752 records from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2023, our analysis incorporates key parameters such as angioplasty procedures, population morbidity rates, Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) and Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) monitoring, and demographic data. Employing XGBoost and a regression model, our methodology ensures the model's robustness and generalizability.

MODELING THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT AND IMPORTS ON EMPLOYMENT IN RUSSIA

The aim of the paper is to assess the impact of technological development and international trade on the level and structure of employment in Russian regions for the period of 2005-2019. The structure of employment is measured in terms of education level, sectoral specialization, and gender of the employed population. The contribution of the work to the scientific literature is expressed in three aspects. First, we empirically estimate the relationship between imports and employment structure. Second, we attempt to econometrically identify the impact of technological development on several indicators of regional employment. Third, we consider the joint impact of technological development and international trade in the estimated models on employment due to the complementarity of these factors. Based on a systemic generalized method of moments we reveal that technological development has: 1) a positive effect on the share of the employed specializing in mining industry, in the activities of hotels and public catering; 2) a negative impact on the share of the employed with secondary vocational and secondary general education, in agriculture, logistics, health care sectors. In terms of demographic indicators, a similar negative impact of technological development on the employment rate of women and men was obtained. At the same time, with growing total imports in the regions the threat of job losses for the employed with secondary vocational and secondary general education, the urban population, as well as those specializing in healthcare sector increases. Expenditures on fundamental research through the innovative development of regions are a factor in job creation. Technological development and foreign economic openness of the region are associated with greater adaptation of the employed population to competition in international trade and technological development.

Development of Bio-Economics and Training Highly-Qualified HR in Russian Regions

Bibliographic and bibliometric analyses showed a serious growth in the number of investigations on bio-economics in 2016–2023. It was pointed out that for bio-economics development we need not only the generation of effective bio-technologies but also their translation – knowledge proliferation. Traditionally these functions are realized mainly through system of personnel training, which gives an opportunity to train highly-qualified workers capable of maintaining effectiveness of production forces at the advanced level. In view of this the present article compiled a sample of 36 Russian universities by ‘Bio-technology and bio-engineering’ and ‘Ecology’ ratings. In addition 10 more universities were included by ‘Economics’ rating. The entry of each university was fixed for subsequent visualization by cartography in order to find regions of prospective development of inter-disciplinary and convergent education programs. Later on a broader sample of leading home universities research was conducted on education programs aimed at training qualified personnel for developing ecologic bio-technologies based on new knowledge. Findings of the research demonstrate that Russia has got prospects for effective development of bioeconomics based on ecologic bio-technologies.

Политика реализации национальных проектов России в рамках здравоохранения

This article highlights the government policy of the Russian Federation within the framework of implementing the National Healthcare Project aimed at improving the health of the working-age population, increasing the average life expectancy of Russians to 80 years, reducing infant mortality, combating cardiovascular diseases, and the spread of malignant neoplasms. It is established that the Russian state actively participates in creating prerequisites for further modernization of the healthcare sector through the current implementation of the National Healthcare Project. However, additional and coordinated efforts of various subjects of the Russian Federation and regions in the implementation of the Healthcare Project are needed to achieve more effective results and fulfill the set tasks in time. Despite progress in healthcare reform, significant challenges persist. These include inadequate funding, especially in the public sector, which results in low salaries for healthcare professionals and limited access to essential medical equipment and facilities. Additionally, there is a shortage of skilled personnel, exacerbated by the preference of young doctors for private practice over public service. The aging population further strains healthcare resources, necessitating specialized care for elderly citizens. In conclusion, the successful implementation of National Healthcare Projects in Russia requires concerted efforts from government agencies, healthcare providers, and other stakeholders. Addressing funding shortages, improving workforce retention, and meeting the needs of an aging population are essential steps towards achieving the goals outlined in the National Healthcare Project.

FINANCIAL FACTORSOF FORMING NEW ENTERPRISES: MODEL OF RUSSIAN REGIONS

In the current geopolitical and economic situation, the relevance of developing domestic segment of entrepreneurs is increasing due to the accelerated formation of new enterprises capable of ensuring economic stability in the Russian regions. One of the most important factors determining the prospects for such formation is the financial conditions for starting an activity. The analysis of this problem is still poorly presented in domestic scientific literature, there are no systematic studies of it. This article eliminates this gap and aims to study the impact of bank lending volume, together with attracted funds of the population as a source of financing new entrepreneurship, on the dynamics of new entries. For the period of 2012–2021, the author reveals multidirectional trends of such dynamics in the segments of commercial companies and individual entrepreneurs in the Russian regions. A significant interregional differentiation has been established both in terms of the parameters forming new enterprises and regional financial conditions. The development of negative trends in the field of SME lending is stated. A model is proposed that substantiates a significant influence of financial factors on the dynamics of business entries in the segments of commercial companies and sole proprietors. This dynamics is also influenced by a number of other economic conditions – the state of regional labor markets, the population and its real incomes, the number of economic entities, etc. Against the background of negative expectations in the economy and a decline in business activity, a sharp deterioration in the financial security of new enterprises is viewed as possible. Regional policy should stimulate the development of entrepreneurship through simplifying the access of entrepreneurs to sources of financing, reducing the cost of borrowed funds. Anti-crisis government policies of 2022 also have a certain potential to solve the problems of financing new enterprises.

Elite cohesion and resilience of the Russian regions: the case of Belgorod Oblast

ABSTRACT What accounts for the ability of regional elites to respond to the challenges posed by the Russian war against Ukraine? This study argues that elite cohesion elevates the ability of subnational elites to cope and adapt to crises. It employs social network analysis of a novel biographical data set of elites’ connections in Belgorod Oblast, the border region that has been severely affected by the war. The analysis reveals that the war has made a relatively minor impact on the structure of the elite network as it has retained its original characteristics. Furthermore, it shows that the outsider governor has not only managed to strengthen his own position among the elites but also to reinforce elite cohesion. By bringing together different elite groups, the governor has enhanced their ability to perform under substantial stress. These findings advance our understanding of the sources of resilience in personalist autocracies.

Russian regions in wartime: fiscal and economic effects of the Russo-Ukrainian war

ABSTRACT This article addresses the economic and fiscal consequences of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine for subnational governments in Russia. Using annual fiscal and economic data, we study how different groups of regions have been affected by the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. Despite the Russian economy being more resilient to a sanctions shock than initially predicted, we document several important negative tendencies at the regional level, sometimes overlooked in policy discussions and the literature on economic sanctions. In this article, we present new regional data and focus on the effects of the war on overall regional tax collections in 2022–2023, as well as the dynamics of different types of regional and federal taxes. We identify several groups of “winners” (oil- and gas-extracting regions, weapons-producing regions, and the largest city-regions) and “losers” (regions that share a border with Ukraine and regions with sanctions-prone industrial specializations) and discuss the prospects of their resilience.

The effect of migration on economic and productivity growth in Russia

This research endeavors to delve into the impact of migration flows on the nation’s economic and productivity growth based on panel data from 80 Russian states for the period of 2015–2021. Our research aims to induce migration policies for the sustainable income and productivity growth of Russia. From the baseline regression analysis with state fixed effects and additional analysis with state random effects and the two-step system GMM, we found a positive impact of migration growth rate on per capita and TFP and the heterogeneity of its effects depending on the Russian regions. It indicates that migration outflows negatively influence the regional economies of Russia and suppress regional economic growth and the positive effects of migration inflows are the strongest shown in less populated states in the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts. This is evidence of the negative effects of migration outflows, which are summarized by the exodus of labor and the loss of tax revenues. The Russian government should implement migration policies both in international and domestic contexts to attract migrants, considering that Russia suffers from outflows of skilled workers to other countries and unbalanced domestic migration flows to west Russia. To reduce migration outflows of workers to other countries, quality jobs should be created (through an increase in R&D), and other incentives and subsidies can be provided to encourage emigrants to return to Russia. For the migration inflows of small regions in Russia, domestic and foreign investment should be promoted to create jobs and establish infrastructure, which can also help slow down immigration from these regions.

An Evaluation of the State of the Top-Priority and Socially Important Industries of Russian Regions: an Analysis Based on Digital Tax Calculator Data

An Evaluation of the State of the Top-Priority and Socially Important Industries of Russian Regions: an Analysis Based on Digital Tax Calculator Data

Household debt burden growth factors: Evidence from Russian regions

Subject. This article discusses the issues of social inequality, financial literacy of the population, and the peculiarities of the development of the banking system in some regions of Russia. Objectives. The article aims to assess the impact of economic, social, demographic, and religious factors on changes in the level of debt burden of residents of Russian regions. Methods. For the study, I used a regression analysis of the Rosstat and the Bank of Russia panel data. Results. The estimations show that a decrease in per capita incomes and an increase in the level of social inequality have a positive effect on the debt burden growth. The debt burden increases with an increase in the percentage of the population below working age and a decrease in the percentage of the population over working age, as well as an increase in the percentage of the employed with higher education. The level of debt burden is higher in regions with a wide spread of Buddhism and lower in regions with a wide spread of Islam. Conclusions. The upward trend in the debt burden of residents of regions characterized by a low level of economic development and high social inequality threatens to reduce the standard of living. However, the possibilities of neutralizing it by means of monetary and macroprudential policies and through the implementation of financial literacy programmes are limited. It is necessary to implement capital-intensive measures to develop the economic base of problem regions.

Geographical Peculiarities of Pinus sibirica Du Tour Natural Regeneration as Related to its Seed Crops

Forest ecology faces a significant challenge in understanding the dynamics of populations of forest-forming trees during their renewal phase, as it shapes the subsequent development and structure of forest ecosystems. The forest regeneration process relies on the dynamics of the seed yield of the woody plants and the unique characteristics of their distribution. In the case of the Cembrae sp. five-needled pines belonging, which have wingless seeds, their renewal is closely linked to the activities of Nucifraga sp. birds that scatter the seeds to create food reserves in the soil. This research aims to explore the geographical variations of Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) natural regeneration as a function of seed abundance. This study was conducted in three Russian mountain regions known for their forests predominated by Pinus sibirica: the Aldan Highlands, the Northern Urals, and the Khamar-Daban Mountains. It was discovered that each region exhibited distinct patterns in both cone yields and Pinus sibirica regeneration. The fluctuations in the thin-billed nutcracker (Nucifraga caryocatactes macrorhynchos Brehm C. L.) populations during the seed harvest season, influenced by the nature of the seed production dynamics in each region, we believed to play a major role in the quantity of Pinus sibirica seedlings appearing in the subsequent year. These findings explain the observed variations in the renewal dynamics of annual emergent seedlings of Pinus sibirica and its reliance on cone yield in the examined regions.

Economic complexity and income inequality in Russian regions

Although economic growth leads to a reduction in poverty, the growing income inequality and its possible consequences are of some concern. The level of economic complexity has recently been increasingly viewed as an important predictor of income inequality. In this paper, using pool and models with time fixed effects, the impact of the economic complexity index on income inequality in Russian regions for 2013 and 2015 was estimated. The results of the evaluation of econometric models show that regions with more complex economies showed a higher level of income inequality compared to others. The explanations for the effect obtained include an increase in demand for highly qualified labor as a result of the development of high-tech industries and an increase in wage differentiation between high-skilled and low-skilled workers, as well as the migration of high-skilled workers to economically more complex regions. The main conclusion is that economic complexity is a significant factor of the variation in income inequality and should also be taken into account while conducting economic and social policy in Russian regions.

Prevalence of stone fruit viruses in Russian regions and genetic analysis of PNRSV isolates

As part of monitoring works carried out by specialists of the All-Russian Plant Quarantine Center, samples of stone fruit crops collected in 20 Russian Federation subjects were tested by enzyme immunoassay for the presence of the following viruses: ACLSV, ApMV, APLPV, ArMV, CLRV, CRLV, PBNSPaV, PDV, PNRSV, PPV, PRMV, RpRSV, SLRSV, TBRV, ToRSV, and TRSV. The distribution of plum pox potyvirus (PPV), prunus necrotic ring spot ilarvirus (PNRSV), and prune dwarf ilarvirus (PDV) was determined across the area of 12, 12, and 8 Russian Federation subjects in 14.9 %, 11.9 %, and 1.7 % of test samples, respectively. The presence of these viruses was confirmed by polymerase chain reaction with subsequent sequencing of the amplification products obtained. The occurrence of these viruses was analyzed depending on the type of plantation, plant species, and region of distribution. The envelope protein gene region of 18 PNRSV isolates from five Russian Federation subjects was analyzed, which showed a significant genetic variability of this virus among the Russian population.

ВЫБОР МОДЕЛИ РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКОГО ТУРИЗМА В РЕГИОНЕ ДЛЯ УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ

At the present stage of development of the services market, tourism is becoming one of the most developing areas of activity, which requires constant improvement of quality, diversity of tourism offer and modernization of tourism infrastructure. In the context of scientific and technological progress, tourism, as an area that affects many different industries, serves as an important factor in the economic and socio-cultural development of rural areas. Russia occupies a minor position in the global tourism market. Despite the great tourism potential, its competitive advantage lies in the unique objects of architecture, culture, history and natural heritage, as well as in the national flavor of the country. Rural tourism can become one of the most important areas of economic development, which will contribute to the social, spiritual and economic development of Russian regions and the country as a whole. There is a necessity and need to bring domestic tourism services in line with modern world trends, to increase the competitiveness of Russian travel companies in the tourism services market. The Russian Federation has significant territorial potential and enormous opportunities for the development of large-scale tourism activities. According to the Strategy for the Development of Tourism in the Country until 2035, the main goal is the comprehensive development of the key competitive advantages of tourism in the Russian Federation, due to the presence of many points of attraction for domestic and inbound tourist flows. Due to the presence of a larger number of monuments of cultural, historical and natural heritage in Russia, there are prospects for the development of almost any type of tourism. In this situation, agricultural tourism is of particular importance as one of the most important factors in the sustainable development of rural areas and the agricultural sector.

STATE AND PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISLAMIC FINANCE INSTRUMENTS (SUKUK) IN RUSSIA AND ABROAD

The search for new sources of financing investment projects in modern Russia in the context of external sanctions and the implementation of geopolitical threats actualizes the problem of incorporating Islamic finance instruments into the structure of the financial market. The early twentieth century development experience of a number of foreign countries shows the steady growth of the assets of Islamic banks, investment funds and the volume of issuance of investment certificates (sukuk), which constitute the main segments of Islamic finance in the world. Islamic financial assets are widely represented in the Gulf countries, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and South Asia, and Africa. The implementation of the principles of Islamic finance in the Russian Federation is hampered by legal, cultural, historical and political factors. While there are certain Islamic financial products in Russia, there is no issue of sukuk at all. In this regard, the purpose of this paper is to study the principles of Islamic finance and the functioning mechanism of the market for the investment certificates (sukuk), possibilities and limitations of their implementation in the modern Russian economy. The author defines sukuk as an Islamic financial instrument used for securitization of assets, and identifies its differences from traditional bonds. Alternative approaches to solving the problem of compliance of sukuk with Sharia principles are analyzed. The prerequisites for realizing the potential of sukuk in modern Russia are determined and the obstacles to their issuance are formulated. It is concluded that the adoption of the Federal Law of 04.08.2023 N 417-FZ "On Conducting an Experiment to Establish Special Regulation in Order to Create the Necessary Conditions for Carrying out Partnership Financing Activities in Certain Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation and on Introducing Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation" and its implementation, taking into account its provisions of pilot projects in a number of Russian regions, will make it possible to intensify the process of incorporation of project financing instruments into the structure of the financial markets of modern Russia.