Russian Gas Supplies Research Articles

SPECIAL COMMENTARY How Electricity Can Break the Russian Gas Supply Stranglehold on the EU

SPECIAL COMMENTARY How Electricity Can Break the Russian Gas Supply Stranglehold on the EU

German chemical makers fear Russian gas supply cuts

German chemical makers fear Russian gas supply cuts

German chemical makers fear Russian gas supply cuts

German chemical makers fear Russian gas supply cuts

Die Folgen eines russischen Erdgasembargos

AbstractSanctions and their effectiveness are at the centre of the discussion about an appropriate response to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. At the latest since the atrocities of the war became evident and payment for gas supplies in roubles was brought into play, voices calling for a natural gas embargo have been growing. In the discussion about the possible consequences of such an embargo, forecasts vary from serious but manageable effects on economic development to mass unemployment and deindustrialisation. Regarding the short run, the main question is: How much of Russian natural gas supply can be replaced and saved by next winter. We provide an overview of existing analyses on savings and substitution potentials, followed by some fundamental policy principles aimed at dealing with a halt in Russian natural gas supplies.

Energy transition and green energy: the struggle for climate and for a new redivision of the world—and the proposal for a balanced Russia–EU solution

ABSTRACT The author argues that current energy transition is the seventh one in the long-term history of the mankind though different from the previous ones. He explains why Paris Agreement (the ‘no return point’ for current energy transition) has grown from the 1970s. He explains the role of hydrogen in current energy transition and three different paths for H2 production: water electrolysis; methane steam reforming with CO2 emissions and CO2 capture and sequestration (CCS); methane pyrolysis and similar technologies without CO2 emissions. He demonstrates their competitive advantages and disadvantages. He describes European Union (EU) vision of cooperation in H2 within EU hydrogen strategy and H2 section of Russian Energy Strategy. He argues why cooperation based on Russian gas supplies to the EU and H2 production in EU at end-use in ‘EU H2 valleys’ based on mostly pyrolysis technologies without CO2 emissions is the mutually beneficial one for both Russia and the EU: for the EU it helps to decrease low-carbon development costs and for Russia to further monetize its vast gas resources within export-oriented decarbonization. He presents his ‘win-win’ scenario for Russia–EU hydrogen cooperation.

Energy Security of the West in the Conditions of Russian Aggression Against Ukraine

The relevance of the study is conditioned by the fact that the fuel and energy sector of the state is one of the key ones for ensuring a comfortable life of the population. In recent years, the process of energy development has been negatively affected by climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic, but now the most important problem is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Political events have only proved that Europe is suffering significant losses in the energy sector and is quite dependent on Russia's fuel and energy resources. That is why the issue of ensuring fuel and energy security and creating a sufficient level of reserves is the most relevant. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to analyse the issue of energy security of Western countries in the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The leading methods of investigating this problem are logical analysis, periodisation, induction, deduction, comparison and systematisation of approaches, which will help determine the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the current state of energy security development in Europe. The paper describes the concept of security and its features in the energy sector; analyses the studies by historians, economists, sociologists, political scientists, and researchers who deal with the problem of energy security of the West in the context of Russia's aggression against Ukraine; describes the danger of further use of Russian gas; suggests various methods and ways to save energy and help reduce dependence on Russian gas supplies; diagnoses risks and threats in the fuel and energy sector of Ukraine and Western Europe; disclosed main statistical data and facts of dependence of European countries on fuel and energy resources from Russia. The materials of the study are of practical and theoretical value for political scientists, economists, politicians, and diplomats, which would help them create conditions for ensuring the country's energy security. In addition, the information may be relevant for researchers and scientists who are concerned about the economic damage to the whole world as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

РОССИЙСКО-ТУРЕЦКОЕ СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО В РАМКАХ ПРОЕКТА "ТУРЕЦКИЙ ПОТОК"

Cooperation within the framework of the Turkish Stream project, which provides for the export of Russian gas to Europe through Turkey is discussed in the article. The author studies the conditions of creation, the essence and advantages of the project and analyzes the interests of the participating countries as well as evaluates the benefits that the countries of Southern Europe should receive during its implementation. In the article is noted that within the framework of the project, it was planned to build two gas pipelines, one of which provided for meeting the energy needs of Turkey, and the other for Europe. At the same time, the route of Russian gas supplies to Europe via the gas pipeline following Turkey became the subject of a dispute between Greece and Bulgaria. In the article a conclusion is is also made that TANAP, one of the key elements of the Southern Gas Transportation Corridor, is not an alternative to the Turkish Stream project. The author notes the high geostrategic significance of the Turkish Stream project, its contribution to ensuring energy security not only of the initiator states, but also of the countries that subsequently joined the project. Thus, according to the author, the project played a significant role not only in the development of energy interaction between the two countries, but also created conditions for broad regional cooperation.

Gazprom’s Nord Stream 2 and diffuse authority in the EU: managing authority challenges regarding Russian gas supplies through the Baltic Sea

ABSTRACTThis article addresses a neglected question about the effects of dispersed authority in the European Union (EU) on the EU’s ability to manage external contestations. It investigates authority challenges from two major external actors in the energy, and specifically the gas sector, and scrutinizes the management of authority conflicts at local sites in different EU states in the Baltic Sea region. The second Russian transboundary submarine gas infrastructure project Nord Stream 2 (NS2), owned and managed by a whole-owned subsidiary of the Russian state-controlled energy giant Gazprom, serves as an illustrative case study. It reveals how multiple authority conflicts at different sites and levels, and the challenges from both the Russian Federation (Russia) and the United States of America (USA), played out, and why formal adjudication has been a primary tool for the EU and several of its member states to assert their authority and manage contestations at the local, national and EU level.

Diversifying away from Russian Gas: The Сase of Poland

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Multiple-criteria decision analysis for cross-country gas pipelines

The paper considers the shortand medium-term planning problems of the regimes of multi-line technical gas pipeline corridors (MLGP) of Russian gas supply system. The fall in gas production due to the depletion of the gas fields leads to a decrease in the load of some operating MLGPs. At the same time, there is a redundancy of production capacities at compressor stations (CS). It becomes possible to use various technological schemes for incorporating CS with lines "pass by" in order to reduce the cost of gas pumping. The solution of the optimization task for the search for MLGP regimes in a one-criterion (minimum of the energy cost) formulation leads to frequent equipment switching. That is unacceptable. Therefore, it is advisable to proceed to multi-criteria statements, formalizing and introducing as criteria the requirements for the stability of technological schemes for switching on equipment, which are usually respected by the dispatch services. The purpose of this article is the development and testing of mathematical models and a computer program to support the adoption of dispatch solutions for managing modes of large MLGPs under conditions of incomplete loading. The solution method is demonstrated by the example of a three-line MLGP. The choice of optimal control is carried out using dynamic programming methods. In order to improve the quality of the choice of control actions, an algorithm is suggested that takes into account the stochastic nature of the loading of the MLGP.

Gas pipeline infrastructure and economic growth of Russian regions: panel cointegration analysis

The Russian gas supply system is one of the largest infrastructures in the world. It is continuing to develop at a high rate. Modern methodological approaches and software allow to investigate the relationship between the development of energy infrastructure and economic dynamics of the regions. This paper proposes a methodological approach to the evaluation of the relationship “development of gas distribution systems – economic growth”. The evaluation is based on the concept of cointegration and an error-correction models. This approach identifies both long-run and short-run components of this relationship. In this paper we aim to estimate the relationship using annual data of 17 Central Russia regions for the period 1998-2017. The results indicate that this relationship is statistically significant. It allows to apply proposed approach and the obtained estimates to the problems of analysis and forecasting of the domestic gas market.

Security of Energy Supply and Gas Diversification in Poland

Poland entered the twenty-first century with an unsustainable energy/electricity mix, strongly over-dependent on coal. This situation seems to be changing very slowly, while there are multiple factors that make it imperative for the issue to be urgently addressed. On the one hand, this paper aims to assess the security of the stationary fuel supply by applying the conventional three-dimensional approach, encompassing availability, affordability and sustainability. On the other, we plan to use our own scheme to analyse gas diversification (Weiner, 2017: 6), i.e. a fuel which, alongside coal, is a very sensitive issue linked to the security of the Polish electric power fuel supply. We demonstrate that the three-dimensional approach is also appropriate for addressing the issue of supply security in the case of a country with a securitized energy agenda based on fears of problems with the availability and affordability of Russian gas supplies. It also highlights Poland’s concern over foreign technological reliance regarding renewables production. We show how the energy perspective, the institutional context, as well as perceptions regarding threat, dependence and Russia influence choices made from among different security of supply dimensions. We find that though the role of coal will surely decrease, there is great uncertainty about Poland’s energy policy and security of supply because of deficiencies in infrastructure and the unknown future role of the particular fuels in the energy/electricity mix, also expected to include nuclear. We can observe that every energy policy step possible is being taken to maintain the role of coal, and Poland moves toward sustainability only as much and as soon as it is required by its EU membership. Not only does the coal industry capture Poland’s energy policy, but also geopolitical considerations cement reliance on coal, providing low energy import dependence. Regarding gas, we find that since the January 2009 Russian–Ukrainian gas crisis, Poland has taken action to diversify its gas supplies, and it has finally achieved results, but there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding Russian gas imports.

An integrated gas and electricity model of the EU energy system to examine supply interruptions

The EU dependence on imported gas is increasing, rising to 67% in the year 2014 with 30% of total gas consumption used for electricity generation that year. With such a dependence on imported gas, gas supply interruptions can have significant impacts on the EU energy system and economy. This points to the need for integrated electricity and gas modelling tools to fully explore the potential impacts of gas supply interruptions. This paper builds and applies a detailed publically available integrated electricity and gas model for the EU-28. We use this model to examine a number of hypothetical scenarios where gas supply routes are interrupted for yearly periods and the impacts on power system operation and gas flow in Europe observed. Model results show that interruption of Russian gas supply to the EU could lead to a rise in average gas prices of 28% and 12% in electricity prices. When supply from North Africa was removed all Southern European states were affected heavily, Spain in particular saw large increases of 30% in gas prices with a corresponding rise of 18% in electricity prices as a result. In addition to supply interruptions, all gas storages were removed from the model to examine the importance of gas storage infrastructure. This resulted in an average increase in power prices of 6% across Europe. These additional insights offer an increased understanding of the interplay between the gas and power systems and identify challenges which may arise when seeking to understand energy systems as a whole.

UKRAINE’S ENERGY POLICY IN THE POST-SOVIET ERA

Following the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine has found itself in a heavy, almost insurmountable dependence on imported oil and gas resources. However, owing to the inherited soviet infrastructure and strategic location, it has become a key transit state, capable of controlling the main flows of hydrocarbons from Russia to Europe. Due to these circumstances, a deep, politically motivated and often irreconcilable competition in the triangle Ukraine-Russia and the West has emerged. In the post-Soviet era the Ukrainian authorities, irrespective of their political affiliations, have tried to diversify the Russian oil and gas supplies either by securing deliveries from other sources or by enhancing production within the country. Opposing any Russian initiative aimed at diminishing the transit status of Ukraine (for example, Nord Stream-1,2, South Stream, etc.), Kiev has struggled to keep Ukraine's gas transportation system under the national control. In addition to this, many western energy companies have got invitation from Ukraine to start exploration and production operations in the country. Such a behavior of the Ukrainian leadership, incompatible to a large extent with the Russia interests, was unanimously supported by Washington and Brussels in the 1990s and afterwards. Ukraine, initially involved in the multilateral energy cooperation with the Russian participation, decided to change its camp and join the pro-Western international energy institutions: GUAM, the Energy Charter Treaty and the Energy community. With the backing of Washington and Brussels, Kiev initiated two projects (the Eurasian Oil Transport Corridor, White Stream) designed to secure oil and gas supplies from the Caspian region to Europe bypassing Russia.

Energy Security and Germany's Response to Russian Revisionism: The Dangers of Civilian Power

This article examines the impact of German dependence on Russian gas supplies for Europe's ability to apply effective sanctions against Russia. It demonstrates that by focusing on the environmental dimensions of energy policy and a policy of rapprochement with Russia, Germany has neglected the security of supply implications of its dependence on Russian gas. The article argues that Germany's excessive energy dependence on Russia has limited the ability of the EU to challenge Russian revisionism by targeting its energy sector through sanctions. The article makes a number of energy policy recommendations which will be essential for Germany to avoid undue Russian influence on its foreign and security policies. The article concludes by exploring the utility of Neoclassical Realism in understanding Germany's approach to energy security. In doing so it highlights the dangers of allowing ideology to cloud a sober assessment of the imperatives of the balance of theat.

Central and East European Diversification under New Gas Market Conditions

The Russo–Ukrainian gas crisis of January 2009 encouraged Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) to diversify away from Russian gas supplies and new gas market conditions have afforded some opportunities for doing so. This paper assesses these achievements, as well as factors preventing CEE countries from benefiting therefrom. The paper addresses four main areas of CEE diversification: (1) gas demand, (2) domestic gas production, (3) transit, as well as (4) gas supply and physical infrastructure for source diversification. There is great variation in the degree of dependence on gas, gas imports, Russian gas and transit countries, across the CEE states. Some progress has been made in diversifying, but the degree of progress and the patterns vary significantly from country to country. Due to long-term gas import commitments and the lack of available import capacity, CEE countries can take only limited advantage of changed gas market conditions. But some countries have genuinely benefited from ongoing developments. Transit-avoidance pipelines can also increase security of supply for CEE consumers by providing the opportunity to arbitrage across gas transit corridors. Despite many criticisms, the EU has taken steps that may help mitigate Russian influence.

Between Amity, Enmity and Europeanisation: EU Energy Security Policy and the Example of Bulgaria's Russian Energy Dependence

Considering the development of the Bulgarian energy security strategy this article analyses how the country has adapted to EU membership and to energy security challenges, such as disruptions to Russian gas supplies in 2006 and 2009 and rising gas prices. Utilising a conceptual lens which synthesises Regional Security Complex Theory and Europeanisation, the article offers an explanation of energy policy changes. It concludes that conceptions of Russia as an energy security guarantor have changed since Bulgaria's EU accession and that Bulgarian energy policy has undergone a qualified reorientation away from a positive dependence on Russian energy sources, towards a convergence with EU priorities of diversification and a single energy market.

Dynamics of Energy Geopolitics of Central Asia1

Geopolitics is the study of international relations and conflicts from geographical perspective, in other words it is also defined as the practice of states, competing for the dominance and control the territory. Central Asia, due to its geopolitical importance has always attracted the attention of all major schools of geopolitical thoughts especially, ‘the school of political landscape’ (English school) and school of geopolitical organism’ (German school). This region has also been the core of Russian and the former Soviet Union’s geopolitical imagination. Since the emergence of independent Central Asian States (CAS), struggle has erupted to control space in this region for hydrocarbon resources and various other reasons. Russia has reclaimed this region for controlling energy supply from the Central Asian Region (CAR) to the countries of Asia, Europe and other parts of the world. China is focusing on the energy resources of this region to reduce its energy dependency on Middle East and Africa countries. For China security of the import of the hydrocarbon resources through the Indian Ocean is also a reason to pay attention towards the CAR. The US and EU need central Asian energy to reduce dependency on Russian gas supply to Europe. Pakistan and India are also potential players in the central Asian energy game. These countries are also trying hard to engage but due to different geopolitical problems and difficulties have not been successful. Turkey, a west Asian country with rapidly growing economy is trying to tap central Asian energy with the help of Iran. Thus, a detailed analysis of the energy politics of global players in the Central Asia is the subject matter of this paper. Players in the region divided in three category, all three category power’s policies and achievement are discussed in the given paper. Methodology: The study is based on secondary data and information. The analysis is based on empirical, historical, comparative, descriptive methods and critical qualitative assessment of the events and political developments in the study region.

Turning the Gaze Towards Asia: Russia's Grand Strategy to Neutralize Western Sanctions

Russia’s intrusion into the Ukraine in February 2014 and the ensuing annexation of the Crimea have been prompted by energy and geopolitical factors. The energy factors are that 50% of Russia’s gas and oil supplies to the European Union (EU) are piped through the Ukraine. It is in Russia’s energy interests to make sure that the gas and oil pipelines transiting the Ukraine are well defended not only against sabotage but also against the Ukraine making use of the gas without paying for it. Ensuring that there is a pro-Russian government in the Ukraine becomes a very important Russian national interest. There is, however, a geopolitical dimension. The Ukraine has become like a chess pawn in a grand chess game being played by the United States and the EU with Russia. At the heart of the Ukraine-Russia crisis is the EU’s attempts incited and abetted by the United States to draw the Ukraine away from Russia into the EU and eventually into NATO, thus bringing NATO to the borders of Russia. Having failed to achieve their aim, the EU supported by the US instigated internal strife in the Ukraine which ended with the ousting of the legally-elected president and eventually the annexation of the Crimea. If the conflict between the West and Russia continues to escalate, an oil and gas embargo could be one of the sanctions that is considered against Russia. Even before the current tension with the West over the Ukraine, Russia was in the process of reorienting its energy posture to Asia in view of the growth in energy demand in that continent and the likely stagnation or decline of demand in Europe over the next few decades. This paper will argue that opportunities for the West to hurt the Russian economy are limited especially when it comes to natural gas since it will be hard to find alternatives for Russian gas supplies to the EU. It will also argue that if the US tries to manipulate oil prices to hurt the Russian economy, the dollar will suffer. The paper will conclude that sanctions against Russia will most probably fail as they mostly did against Iran whose economy is 18% of Russia’s economy in size.

How Much Do the Neighbors Pay? Economic Costs of International Gas Disputes

The paper analyzes financial performance of European companies during Ukrainian-Russian gas disputes in January 2006 and 2009. Investors' reaction to the gas disputes is estimated for companies listed on the European stock exchanges and for which natural gas is the main factor of production. Economic costs of the gas cut-offs are estimated using event study methodology. It is found that the most severe decline in value due to the gas disputes was for companies located in the CEE states that are heavily dependent on Russian gas supply. The paper also contributes to the literature on the bargaining power of states, providing an empirical investigation of how much costs bears a party with less bargaining power in the dispute.