Abstract
The Russian gas supply system is one of the largest infrastructures in the world. It is continuing to develop at a high rate. Modern methodological approaches and software allow to investigate the relationship between the development of energy infrastructure and economic dynamics of the regions. This paper proposes a methodological approach to the evaluation of the relationship “development of gas distribution systems – economic growth”. The evaluation is based on the concept of cointegration and an error-correction models. This approach identifies both long-run and short-run components of this relationship. In this paper we aim to estimate the relationship using annual data of 17 Central Russia regions for the period 1998-2017. The results indicate that this relationship is statistically significant. It allows to apply proposed approach and the obtained estimates to the problems of analysis and forecasting of the domestic gas market.
Highlights
In recent years, there has been an intensive development of data processing techniques and software for empirical studies of the impact of infrastructure on the economy
In this paper we explore the statistical relationship “development of gas distribution systems – economic growth”
Analysis of data of 17 Russian regions for the period 1998-2015 demonstrated that the increase in gas consumption by 1% in the long term increases gross regional product (GRP) by 0.106-0.169%
Summary
There has been an intensive development of data processing techniques and software for empirical studies of the impact of infrastructure on the economy. The development of gasification leads to an increase in the investment attractiveness of the regions and has a positive impact on the economy. Insufficient attention is paid to the relevant statistical studies. In this paper we explore the statistical relationship “development of gas distribution systems – economic growth”. Official statistics is presented in the form of time-series datasets, which are usually nonstationary and short, what requires the use of suitable specifications of mathematical models and methods for increasing the power of statistical tests. We investigate the hypothesis that the relationship is long-term, and the dynamics of the corresponding components has an equilibrium trajectory. The analysis is based on the concept of cointegration and the adjusting mechanism for panel data
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