Rules-based System Research Articles

Do WTO Commitments Remain Tenable in the Age of Data? Renegotiating the Rules-Based System for the Data-Driven Economy

The adaptation of commercial frameworks to the digital environment has been underway for many years. Well-developed e-commerce regimes have already been developed in major regional trade agreements; the WTO is playing catch up - and it is imperative that it do so, both to make available the benefits of e-commerce to the full range of WTO members and for its own credibility. However, even the most advanced regional trade agreements are struggling to keep up with the rapidly evolving system and the main action in developing new norms for the digital economy is in domestic regulatory sandboxes. The most challenging issue facing the WTO is the new geopolitical security divide that has emerged between the United States and China. The WTO Agreement was framed for a unipolar world, in which “inert” goods and services were traded across borders that could be rigorously policed. This framework is challenged on multiple fronts in a multipolar, online world of smart products. Options to move forward include GATT Article XXVIII/GATS Article XXI renegotiation of WTO commitments across the security divide; conditional MFN in areas where parties agree to appropriate protocols to manage the risks in the digital environment; and a new detente agreement to narrow the range of issues subject to the new national security concerns. An up-front, open and low-rhetoric renegotiation seems infinitely preferable to a high-rhetoric acrimonious decoupling.

Development of the principles of fuzzy rule-based system for hepatocelular carcinoma staging

The article proposes the principles for the development of a fuzzy rule-based physician decision support system n to determine the stages of the most common hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among malignant tumors of liver. The stages of HCC, i.e., critical situations, are expressed by different combinations of clinical signs of input data and emerging clinical conditions. These combinations shape the multiplicity of possible situations (critical situations) by forming linguistic rules that are in fuzzy relations with one another. The article presents the task of developing a fuzzy rules-based system for HCC staging by classifying the set of possible situations into given classes. In order to solve the problem, fuzzy rules of clinical situations and critical situations deviated from them are developed according to the possible clinical signs of input data. The rules in accordance with the decision-making process are developed in two phases. In the first phase, three input data are developed: nine rules are developed to determine possible clinical conditions based on the number, size, and vascular invasion of tumor. In the second phase, seven rules are developed based on possible combinations of input data on the presence of lymph nodes and metastases in these nine clinical conditions. At this stage, the rules representing the fuzzification of results obtained are also described. The latter provide an interpretation of results and a decision on related stage of HCC. It also proposes a functional scheme of fuzzy rules-based system for HCC staging, and presents the working principle of structural blocks. The fuzzy rule-based system for HCC staging can be used to support physicians to make diagnostic and treatment decisions

Holding Up a Mirror to the World Trade Organization: Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Holding Up a Mirror to the World Trade Organization: Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Dispute Settlement in Preferential Trade Agreements and the WTO: A Network Analysis of Idleness and Choice of Forum

Abstract It is generally presumed that World Trade Organization (WTO) members display a preference for dispute settlement under WTO rules over those provided for in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). This assumption is driven by observations relating to the large number of PTAs, the low number of PTA cases and the large number of WTO cases, including between PTA partners. These observations are challenged by adopting a methodology that has so far seen relatively limited use in the study of international law network analysis. This article finds, first, the network of connections among WTO members formed by PTAs is far less dense than appears to have been assumed. Second, while almost half of all WTO members have participated in WTO proceedings at least once, the vast majority of bilateral relations among WTO members have never been subject to WTO dispute settlement. This puts the perceived idleness of PTA dispute settlement into perspective. Lastly, the share of WTO cases that could have been settled under PTA procedures is far lower than commonly believed. This low share shows that there is no widespread predilection for the WTO, as commonly argued, but, more often than not, a genuine absence of choice. Ultimately, as the PTA network is unable to act as a substitute, WTO dispute settlement continues to hold a central place in the rules-based global trading system.

USER ACTIVITIES ANALYSIS IN LOCATION BASED SOCIAL NETWORK VIA ASSOCIATION RULES

In recent years, the field of the Internet of Things (IoT), including smart and wearable devices, has witnessed a tremendous advancement leading to the collection of a wide variety of information not only about users but also their activities via various systems such as social networks, apps and so on. Thus, the collection of this large amount of data allows social systems to reach a wide variety of targets and gives more visibility about users and their profiles. It can also help to improve the services and functionalities of the users. Besides, the analysis and prediction of user’s activities in location-based social networks (LBSNs) have received much attention both from industries and research communities, especially in smart city developments, which give much importance to the automation of the LBSNs. In this paper, we present a new method based on association rules for user activity analysis in LBSNs. In particular, the Apriori algorithm has been applied to extract the consequential and advantageous rules to categorize users’ profiles. Empirical evaluations on a publicly available large-scale real-world dataset, named Gowalla, demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented association rules-based system in analyzing users’ activities via LBSNs.

The Trade Policy Collision of Our Times: China’s Subsidies Encounter Abba Lerner and David Ricardo

This note takes a contrarian position on the significance of China’s subsidies, which are generally viewed as intractable and damaging to the rules-based system. It considers the implications of Lerner Symmetry for the aggregate effect of China’s subsidies and the implications of comparative advantage for the differential effects across industries, in a context where the effective differential tax burdens are unknown, as indeed is also the case with differential effects of tax and subsidy regimes in the rest of the world. It concludes that the net effect of China’s subsidies is much less than commonly supposed and that differential effects that may be damaging can be handled, as they have been in the past, through tools available under the WTO Agreement.

Maritime politics as discourse in the Indo/Asia-Pacific

ABSTRACT This paper examines maritime politics across the Indo/Asia-Pacific during the 2010s by drawing on notions of geopolitics as discursive practice through which various actors shape understandings and trajectories of international politics. It first discusses the consequence of the idea that maritime issues in ‘the region’ are of ‘strategic importance’, which is used to justify the discursive and material engagement of both regional and extra-regional powers. It then identifies three broad framings or narratives of maritime politics in the Indo/Asia-Pacific over the last decade: strategic competition, regional order and challenges to a ‘rules-based system’, and collaborative governance, and discusses how discursive contestation is further displayed in recent debates over the concept of ‘Indo-Pacific’. This analysis demonstrates a powerful role for discourse in the maritime politics of the Indo/Asia-Pacific, as the ambiguities inherent in institutions of maritime politics and questions of ‘sovereignty’ over maritime space are discursively manipulated into representations which serve various political purposes and statist agendas. The conclusion places this in the context of some recent literature on China and critical geopolitics.

Inflation expectations quantification with fuzzy control system

The inflation expectations of economic agents are one of the most important variables for central banks and monetary policy conduct, but such expectations are not directly observable. Consumers’ expectations are examined in qualitative surveys. The key task is to transform consumers’ survey responses into quantitative proxies of expectations. In this examination, we investigate an alternative method to quantify consumers’ inflation expectations using fuzzy rule-based systems. In order to generate rules in the learning phase, we compare two methods: the Wang-Mendel method based on space partition and the subtractive clustering method. The learning data are information about past inflation and consumers’ opinions as expressed in surveys. The system is built and tested on data from January 2002 to June 2019 for non-euro member states of the EU. The fuzzy rules-based system returns results that outperform a benchmark—the standard quantification procedure—in terms of correlation with a raw approximation of consumer expectations, which is survey balance statistics. The results are robust regarding the benchmark choice. We find the method more promising for economies with lower stability, as it gives more room for the training phase of the algorithm application.

Preventing misuse of discount promotions in e-commerce websites: An application of rule-based systems

E-commerce websites continue to get affected by fraudulent online activities in spite of the substantial efforts made by different stakeholders such as card issuers, banking intermediaries, merchants, and law enforcement agencies. First-time promotional discounts are offered by e-commerce websites for gaining and retaining new and existing customers. However, in several instances, such discounts are abused by fraudsters. Surprisingly, little attempt has been put in the past to detect such abuses. This study is the first attempt in this direction and uses transaction data of an e-commerce company to develop a rule-based detection system. The rules-based system is developed in two-stage processes, generation of facts and rules, respectively; and it is further validated by experts. An architecture of a rule-based fraud detection system is also proposed. Using rule-based detection system, the company can flag-off the probable abusers, and can subsequently monitor their behaviour and take decisive actions.

Natural Language Processing of Serum Protein Electrophoresis Reports in the Veterans Affairs Health Care System.

Serum protein electrophoresis (SPEP) is a clinical tool used to screen for monoclonal gammopathy, thus it is a critical tool in the evaluation of patients with multiple myeloma. However, SPEP laboratory results are usually returned as short text reports, which are not amenable to simple computerized processing for large-scale studies. We applied natural language processing (NLP) to detect monoclonal gammopathy in SPEP laboratory results and compared its performance at multiple hospitals using both a rules-based manual system and a machine-learning algorithm. We used the data from the VA Corporate Data Warehouse, which comprises data from 20 million unique individuals. SPEP reports were collected from July to December 2015 at 5 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers. Of these reports, we annotated the presence or absence of monoclonal gammopathy in 300 reports. We applied a machine learning-based NLP and a manual rules-based NLP to detect monoclonal gammopathy in SPEP reports at each of the hospitals, then applied the model from 1 hospital to each of the other hospitals. The learning system achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.997, and the rules-based system achieved an accuracy of 0.99. When a model trained on 1 hospital's data was applied to a different hospital, however, accuracy varied greatly, and the learning-based models performed better than the rules-based model. Binary classification of short clinical texts such as SPEP reports may be a particularly attractive target on which to train highly accurate NLP systems.

Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade of the Australian Parliament: Inquiry into the Implications of COVID-19 Pandemic for Australia's Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade

This parliamentary submission outlines a number of strategic recommendations in the area of supply chain resilience, labour-market adjustment and environmental policy for teh Australian Government as it prepares for recovery from the economic downturn inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic and reiterates the need for Australia to support constructive engagement in the region to resist protectionism and uphold a rules-based multilateral trading system.

Trade Conflicts: Whither the WTO?

The WTO is in a state of crisis. Yet its problems did not start with the Trump Administration. And although this has been the focus of much criticism from the United States, the Appellate Body should not be the priority in reforming the WTO. More differentiation amongst its members and its rules is needed, to reflect varying levels of development. In addition, more room for plurilaterals ought to be created. China’s atypical economic model ought to be reconciled with the WTO’s market-orientation. This can be done through an update of its Protocol of Accession to the WTO, or perhaps through a newly conceived plurilateral agreement. Such a bridging mechanism would reflect a renewed engagement of China with the WTO, and could help to recommit the United States to a rules-based system. The EU should take initiatives to make this happen. Appellate Body, China, Developing countries, Dispute settlement, EU trade policy, Made in 2025, Non-market economy, Plurilaterals, Protocol of Accession to the WTO, Special and Differential Treatment, State capitalism, State-owned enterprises, US trade policy, WTO-crisis

Trump and the End of an Era? The Liberal International Order in Perspective

ABSTRACT The liberal international economic and political order which the United States created from the ashes of World War II and has since led is in trouble. To United States President Donald Trump, the order which provided the framework under which sovereign states agreed to follow a rules-based system of economic and political cooperation and shared multilateral governance, has not only allowed other nations (in particular, China) to take advantage of US ‘magnanimity’, but also weakened the United States economically, while asymmetric alliances compromised its military advantages. Given the sustained assault this cosmopolitan order is facing, many fear that it may not survive if Trump is re-elected in November 2020. Indeed, if the United States response to the COVID-19 pandemic is any guide, an ‘America First’ agenda, especially a hard-line approach to China, will shape US policy if Trump wins a second term.

ENGAGING WITH INTERNATIONAL LAW

AbstractThis article considers the positive evolution of international law in the past century, and the emergence of a rules-based multilateral system under the UN Charter, which has, inter alia, enabled formerly colonised peoples to exercise their right to self-determination and prohibited the use of force in international relations. The author reaffirms his faith in the ability of international law to provide a common language for the international community to face successfully common challenges, such as poverty, global warming, and the protection of privacy rights in the era of social media and artificial intelligence. Looking beyond traditional beneficiaries and duty-bearers of international obligations, the author makes a case for all actors to engage in respecting, upholding and promoting international law.

The Re-Emergence of Conquest: International Law and the Legitimate Use of Force

The re-emergence of the issue of conquest of territory is one of the most contentious debates surrounding contemporary international law. This article investigates certain developments in respect territorial conquests and the reaction of the international community to such acts. There is analysis of the key relationship between conquest and empire and speculates on the possibility that the re-emergence of conquest is further evidence that international society is reverting to a previous incarnation whereby Great Power politics is assuming its former pre-eminence, at the expense of the rules-based system which emerged after the Second World War. The article places conquest within the wider context of international law whilst discussing historical occurrences and contemporary instances.

Accounting and Convergence in Corporate Governance: Doctrinal or Economic Path Dependence?

Convergence in corporate governance has been debated for more than 20 years. This paper seeks to explain convergence – and the lack thereof – in accounting laws and standards, within the context of this debate. One could argue about whether accounting has undergone international convergence. One the one hand, the two major accounting systems, IFRS and US GAAP, share the same goal of providing timely and useful information to investors. On the other hand, differences between the two sets of standards remain, and the SEC still does not permit domestic issuers to use IFRS. Moreover, while EU publicly-traded firms are required to use IFRS for their consolidated financial statements, many Member States, continue to require or permit the use of domestic accounting standards for private firms and for entity-level accounting. This paper seeks to explain this persistent divergence with path dependence. Path dependence is often driven by interest groups. However, there is also the possibility of doctrinal path dependence, which can be explained with the difficulty of making fundamental changes given that legal professionals aim for certain and seek to preserve the value of their specialized human capital. A major factor in accounting reform are the interests of accounting professionals, particularly in large international firms (the “Big 4”). Divergence may in part be because the interests of this key constituency differ between the US and Continental European countries. In Europe, the internationalization of accounting has generally been favored by large firms because of the possibility of increasing their market share at the expense of purely domestic firms. This explains the compromise implemented in the Member state options of the IFRS Regulation. By contrast, the US already had a fully developed set of accounting standards focused on capital markets when IFRS became an option, which means there were no rents to capture for large firms as a result of changes in the audit market. In addition, a key feature of US corporate governance distinguishes it from other systems, including the UK, namely the prevalence of investor litigation. Consequently, a rules-based system serves the interest of the accounting profession better than the arguably more standards-based IFRS.

Italian bank crisis: flexible application of BRRD rules, or a bailout in disguise?

Abstract The economic and financial crisis of the year 2008 highlighted the need for banking sector regulation via the creation of the banking union. The Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) represents an important milestone in the formation of the banking union. It is supposed inter alia to replace the existing practice of bailing out failing banks by the opposite principle of bail-in, which makes the bank recapitalized from the internal resources at the detriment of investors and creditors. However, the Italian solution of handling its failing banks took advantage of existing loopholes in the new regulatory system. Eventually, it went against the spirit of the new rules by deploying taxpayers’ money to deal with the banks’ failure. This article evaluates the Italian approach and contemplates the adequacy of the new rules-based system by comparing its potentially beneficial room for flexibility with alleged malfunction and unreliability. Finally, it discusses the potential impact of the Italian approach on the further process of completing the banking union, in particular the establishment of its last pillar, the common deposit guarantee scheme.

Utilization of review form process or form 360 review employe performance in company using Configure Change Engine

In building a company, which needs to be considered and very important is the accounting system, because to take a decision for the advancement of a company can use a rules-based system to configure products in the company. In today's modern era, the company's staff can access rules-based systems to configure products wherever and whenever they are connected to the Internet. This discovery provides the ability to test rules in system-based rules to configure the product. The configuration system defines the product component by using the elements contained in the catalog section and the rules that define the relationship between the product components. The user provides a test case that selects at least one section to include in the product configuration, and the configuration tester processes the rule to determine if at least one section is selected in case of a conflict test with the previous part of the plurality included in the product configuration.

The US-China Trade Deal: Back of the Envelope Estimate of the Economic Impact

The US-China trade deal has received at best a lukewarm initial reception from the trade policy community. China is to buy US$ 200 billion of US goods and services per annum in 2020 and 2021 above 2017 baseline levels; the US lowers tariffs by 7.5% on imports from China of US$120 billion of goods. However, the economics of these commitments have to be worked out to determine the welfare effects. This note considers the quantitative impacts in broad-brush terms and concludes that real GDP gains for the United States could amount to as much as 0.15% in 2021 above baseline, while China could turn the agreement to its advantage if it multilateralizes the response by removing for all partners the import-restricting non-tariff measures that the United States has targeted. Notwithstanding the damage to the multilateral rules-based system caused by the nature of the deal (which nonetheless invokes WTO disciplines), this agreement need not represent a deadweight economic loss.

Economic Rents and the Contours of Conflict in the Data-Driven Economy

In the era of continuous and steadily accelerating technological change that started with the industrial revolution, economies and societies were repeatedly transformed in ways that can be linked to ownership of the essential and scarce factor of production of the day and command of the economic rents that flow to that factor. While history allows many narratives to be spun, the contours of conflict, both internal and between states, can be seen as aligned with the contest over rents – from the wars of territorial acquisition of the feudal era when land was the main source rents, to the wars of mercantilist expansion when the economies of scale generated by the machinery of mass production became the main source of rent, to the resource-rent-fuelled oil wars of the modern era, and in recent decades the proliferating conflicts over intellectual property. With the digital transformation we are seeing the emergence of a new type of economy – the data-driven economy, in which data is the essential factor of production. Data generates massive rents, fuels the rise of superstar firms, and generates powerful incentives for strategic trade and investment policy. The emergence of this new economy signals a new era of conflict, on new battlegrounds, with new tools or weapons, between new coalitions within and amongst countries. This conflict is already upon us. The vast rents prospectively at play in the data-driven economy arguably constitute a major (perhaps the major) trigger for the open trade and technology war between the United States and China. They also are at the heart of the brewing conflicts over taxation of digital platform firms. This note describes the contours of the conflicts that are to be expected with the digital transformation as it realigns interests, compares these expectations with actual developments, and comments on the implications for the rules-based system of international commerce.