Risk Theory Research Articles

Reconceptualizing risk: toward a theory of small risks in informal family play settings

Reconceptualizing risk: toward a theory of small risks in informal family play settings

Vivifying Outbreaks: Investigating the Influence of a Forecast Visual on Risk Perceptions, Time-Urgency, and Behavioral Intentions

ABSTRACT Although visual depictions of epidemiological data are not new in public health, the US public saw more of them during the COVID-19 pandemic than ever before. In this study, we considered visualizations of forecasts (i.e. predictions of how a disaster will unfold over time) formatted as line charts. We investigated how two choices scientists make when creating a forecast visual – the outcome of focus (cases or deaths) and the amount of data provided (more or less data) about the past or the potential future – shape behavioral intentions via risk-related appraisals (e.g. threat and efficacy). In an online experiment, participants (N = 236) viewed a written health alert about a novel airborne virus, with one of the eight versions of a forecast visual or no visual (text only). The results of the experiment showed that exposing people to a health alert with a forecast visual in it may be less effective than anticipated. Reading a written health alert with a forecast visual was, at best, equal to outcomes from reading an alert without it, and sometimes it performed worse: participants appraised the novel virus as a less urgent threat and the recommended solutions as less efficacious. Implications of the findings for theories of risk and visual health communication and practical considerations for future health communicators were discussed.

Analysis of Claim Frequency and Severity in Auto Insurance Using Generalized Linear Models in Philippines

Abstract Purpose: The aim of the study was to analyze the analysis of claim frequency and severity in auto insurance using generalized linear models in Philippines. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: The analysis of claim frequency and severity in auto insurance using Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) in the Philippines revealed that various factors, including driver demographics, vehicle characteristics, and geographic location, significantly impact the likelihood and severity of claims. The GLM approach effectively modeled these relationships, providing insights into risk factors that contribute to higher claim rates and costs. The findings suggest that younger drivers and those in urban areas tend to have higher claim frequencies, while larger vehicles and those with higher engine capacities are associated with more severe claims. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Utility Theory, Actuarial Fairness Theory & Risk Theory may be used to anchor future studies on analyze the analysis of claim frequency and severity in auto insurance using generalized linear models in Philippines. From a practical perspective, insurers should increasingly adopt telematics and real-time driving data within their GLM frameworks. Policymakers should encourage and potentially mandate the integration of telematics data in auto insurance modeling.

Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Mortality Rates: A Stochastic Actuarial Approach in Uganda

Purpose: The aim of the study was to analyze the quantifying the impact of climate change on mortality rates: a stochastic actuarial approach in Uganda. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: The study found that climate change significantly increases mortality rates, particularly through the rise in extreme weather events and temperature-related illnesses. Using stochastic actuarial models, the research demonstrated a strong correlation between climate variability and higher mortality, especially among vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies in Uganda's public health planning to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on mortality. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Risk theory, ecological theory & actuarial life table theory may be used to anchor future studies on analyze the quantifying the impact of climate change on mortality rates: a stochastic actuarial approach in Uganda. Practitioners should integrate climate data into actuarial models used for mortality forecasting and risk assessment. Policymakers should develop and enforce regulatory standards that require the inclusion of climate change considerations in actuarial assessments and reporting.

Usage and adoption intent of NFC payment methods: an investigation based on the UTAUT-3 model and perceived risk theory

Usage and adoption intent of NFC payment methods: an investigation based on the UTAUT-3 model and perceived risk theory

What predicts hurricane evacuation decisions? The importance of efficacy beliefs, risk perceptions, and other factors

Risk theories and empirical research indicate that a variety of factors can influence people’s protective decisions for natural hazards. Using data from an online survey that presented coastal U.S. residents with a hypothetical hurricane scenario, this study investigates the relative importance of cognitive risk perceptions, negative affect, efficacy beliefs, and other factors in explaining people’s anticipated evacuation decisions. The analysis finds that multiple factors, including individual and household characteristics, previous experiences, cognitive and affective risk perceptions, and efficacy beliefs, can help predict hurricane evacuation intentions. However, the largest amount of variance in survey participants’ evacuation intentions is explained by their evacuation-related response efficacy (coping appraisals) and their perceived likelihood of getting hurt if they stay home during the storm. Additional analysis explores how risk perceptions and efficacy beliefs interact to influence people’s responses to risk information. Although further investigation in additional situations is needed, these results suggest that persuading people at high risk that evacuating is likely to reduce harm can serve as an important risk communication lever for motivating hurricane evacuation.

New results for the Marshall-Olkin family of distributions

Abstract The Marshall-Olkin family of probability distributions has been the inspiration of numerous research publications in the field of probability distributions. In this paper, we present several new properties of this family. In particular, we focus on stochastic orders, stress-strength reliability, Lorenz and the Leimkhuler curves, compounding, and integrated tail distribution. Two applications related to Lorenz curves and ruin theory are finally presented.

Identifying the pollution risk pattern from industrial production to rural settlements and its countermeasures in China

Impacted by large-scale and rapid rural industrialization in the past few decades, China's rural settlements are confronted with the risk of heavy metal pollution stemming from industrial production, which might pose a significant threat to the rural habitat and the well-beings. This study devised a relative risk model for industrial heavy metal pollution to the rural settlements based on the source-pathway-receptor risk theory. Using this model, we assessed the risk magnitudes of heavy metal pollution from industrial production at a 10 km × 10 km grid scale and identified the characteristics of the risk pattern in China. Our finding reveals: (1) the relative risk values of wastewater, waste gas and total heavy metal pollution are notably concentrated within a confined spectrum, with only a small number of units are characterized by high-risk level; (2) Approximately 21.57 % of China's rural settlements contend with heavy metal pollution, with 4.17 %, 9.84 % and 7.55 % being subjected to high, medium and low risks, respectively; (3) The high-risk units mainly is concentrated in the developed areas such as Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin metropolitan area, also dispersed in the plain areas with high rural population density. Guided by these insights, this study puts forth regionally tailored prevention and control strategies, as well as distinct process prevention and control strategies.

The Sounds of Silence: Making Sense of the Absence of Domestic Violence Victims Help Seeking During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Increased concern was raised globally at the outbreak of COVID-19 that victims of domestic violence would be even more at risk when isolated with a violent partner and out of reach of support due to restrictions. Swedish staff in violence against women services prepared for increased calls for help. Instead, a worrying silence arose in a time and place of high uncertainty. This article analyzes the narratology of risk, when staff members in violence against women services, reflect upon their accounts, responses, and experiences, during the pandemic. The analysis is based on three themes, accounting for expected increased influx, making sense of silence and accounting for mobilization. The findings are discussed by applying the relational theory of risk.

Determinants influencing online shopping behaviour among 18-30-year-olds in Gauteng, South Africa: an examination of pricing, quality, security, time and information availability

This study explores the determinants influencing online shopping behaviour among 18-30-year-olds in Gauteng, South Africa, focusing on key factors, such as pricing, quality, security, time, and information availability. Grounded in the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Perceived Risk Theory, this research aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how these factors impact consumer decisions and behaviours. A cross-sectional survey methodology was employed, targeting 1,043 respondents who have shopped online within the past six months in Gauteng. The findings reveal that all five factors significantly influence online shopping behaviour, with information availability and time efficiency showing the strongest correlations. The study also highlights that despite the high perceived convenience and satisfaction with online shopping, security concerns remain a barrier to adoption. The study suggests that online retailers should enhance their security measures, provide detailed product information, and streamline their online processes to improve customer experience and trust. The study developed a conceptual framework to identify the factors influencing online shopping behaviour among 18-30-year-olds in Gauteng. This model includes six constructs: pricing, quality, security, time, information availability, and online shopping behaviour. This framework can be applied in future research. Limitations of the study include its narrow geographic and demographic focus on the 18-30-year-old population in Gauteng, South Africa, which restrict the generalisability of findings to other age groups or regions. Additionally, the cross-sectional design provides a snapshot rather than longitudinal insights into how online shopping behaviours evolve over time.

‘We live with the floods’ – Intersectional Risk Theory in the analysis of household’s flood risk in Monterrey, Mexico

This contribution presents Intersectional Risk Theory as a suitable methodological approach for a group-centred qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews with inhabitants of three neighbourhoods in a flood-prone zone in Monterrey, Mexico. Together with place attachment, the notions of Doing, Undoing and Re-Doing risk are useful to interpret daily risk practices at various scales in order to cope, adapt, and survive to hydro-meteorological hazards, allowing to situate individual agency as well as forms of community organization and resistance to face flood and other risks.

Doing the right thing

The study explores the legal consciousness of young people in the context of COVID-19 pandemic, concerning the management of personal relationships vis-à-vis the legal regulation enacted by the Italian government. We aim to account for the forms of legality that have granted to sustain, criticize, engage, and resist the law, and to understand the mechanisms that contributed to shaping specific experiences of legality. We refer to a theoretical framework based on legal consciousness, the Neo-Bourdieusian approach to moral judgment and Douglas’s theory of risks. Based on the analysis of 70 narratives, our findings show different ways of experiencing the law by young people. Different recurring narratives can be identified: individual translation, trust in procedure, fatalistic claims, and cooperative criticism. These narratives are not fixed attributes of individuals but recurring repertoires of perceptions and practices that emerge from specific interaction contexts where pre-reflective dispositions and conscious deliberation intersect.

The effects of tourists’ digital attachment on behavioural intention in live-streaming tourism

ABSTRACT Live-streaming tourism emerged as an innovative form of socio-technical tourism. This research explores the nexus between the digital technology experiences of tourists engaged in live-streaming tourism and behavioural intentions. Study 1 relied on social media dependence theory to analyze the impact of digital attachment on usage intention and explored tourists’ willingness to use digital technology. The results indicate that digital attachment comprises digital addiction, self-connection with digital technology, digital involvement, and social connection through digital technology. Study 2 blended trust and risk theory and technology acceptance models to strengthen these insights through a quantitative study involving tourists in live-streaming tourism. The results show that tourists’ perceived value (usefulness and ease of use) mediates the relationship between tourists’ digital attachment and behavioural intention. Despite the risks encountered in live-streaming tourism, results suggest that these risks do not significantly sway tourists’ behavioural intentions. The research highlights that the engagement and connection achieved via participation in live-streaming tourism can lessen perceived risks and bolster subjective trust, thus influencing their behavioural intentions.

The extension of vicarious liability in corporate groups

ABSTRACT This article explores the important but unresolved issue of whether one legal entity can be vicariously liable for another legal entity’s tort in a corporate group primarily based on UK law. Prior literature and case law seldom provide detailed discussion on the extended application of vicarious liability in group situations. The article aims to enrich the discussion of corporate tort liability by specifically evaluating whether the relationship between the parent and subsidiary companies could be akin to employment, and by researching whether this relationship is closely connected with the tort, subsequently leading to vicarious liability. The research findings reveal that the enterprise risk theory supports the close connection between the special relationship (the parent and subsidiary companies) and the tort in certain circumstances. However, the essential tests for the relationship requirement (namely, the control, organisation, integration, and entrepreneur tests) are difficult to meet in combination in modern group situations.

An integrated model of artificially intelligent (AI) facial recognition technology adoption based on perceived risk theory and extended TPB: a comparative analysis of US and South Korea

ABSTRACT The purpose of this research work is to merge two theories (i.e. the perceived risk theory and the extended theory of planned behavior) to explain for the formation of behavioral and switching intentions toward artificial intelligent-based facial recognition technology, particularly in terms of restaurant payment. The moderating role of cultural differences is explored in the framework. Sixteen hypotheses are tested by using a sample of 337 South Korean and 342 U.S. consumers. Time and privacy risks significantly influence the attitude of only the Koreans, while psychological risks only influence the Americans. Attitude and subjective norms significantly affect intention to switch to face recognition payment and use this method for both groups. Moreover, the findings reveal that cultural differences play a significantly moderating role in the relationship between psychological risk and attitude toward artificial intelligent-based facial recognition technology.

Assembled knowledges and situated choices: women’s understandings and practices concerning childbirth risks in urban China

In this research, I examined the complexities of women’s understandings and practices during childbirth and used the theoretical tool of situated choices and socio-cultural risk theory to explore and conceptualise their limited agency during childbirth. Drawing upon the perspectives of the sociology of childbirth risk and childbirth choice, I analysed data collected through participant observations and in-depth interviews with women in urban parts of Jiangsu Province, China. In illuminating the women’s assembled knowledges and rich understandings of birthing processes, it became apparent how they situated their choices regarding medicalised childbirth, and how they bricolaged multiple perspectives regarding the past and future on the delivery bed. These everyday rationales and knowledges were used actively and in tandem with a mainstream epistemology of biomedicine.

Associations between Kratom risk perceptions and intention to legalize in Malaysia

ABSTRACT Background or Objective This paper delves into the dichotomy of Kratom in Malaysia, designated as an illegal substance under the Poison Act 1952. Amidst heightened concerns regarding Kratom usage, debates revolve around balancing perceived benefits and potential adverse effects, particularly in pain management. Employing the perceived risk theory, the study aims to scrutinize the intention to legalize Kratom. Methods Data from 335 respondents form the basis of the study. The perceived risk theory serves as the framework for understanding the complexities of Kratom legalization to legalize in Malaysia. The study employs a structured questionnaire to assess social, financial, physical, psychological, and performance risks. Results The findings indicate significant impacts of social, financial, physical, and psychological risks on behavioral intentions toward Kratom legalization. However, performance risk does not exhibit a significant impact on the intention to legalize Kratom. Conclusions This study contributes crucial insights for policymakers, highlighting the intricate dynamics of Kratom legalization. Addressing various risk factors is deemed essential for the formulation of effective regulatory policies. The results emphasize the need for nuanced considerations in understanding and managing the legalization of Kratom in the Malaysian context.

Influence of Political Stability on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflows in Nigeria

Purpose: The aim of the study was to assess the influence of political stability on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in Nigeria. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: The study indicated that political stability significantly influences foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, as investors seek environments where their investments are secure and can yield predictable returns. Stable political conditions reduce risks related to government policy changes, expropriation, and civil unrest, thereby attracting more FDI. Conversely, political instability, marked by frequent government changes, corruption, and social unrest, deters investors due to increased uncertainty and risk. Studies have shown that countries with stable political climates tend to receive higher FDI inflows as they offer a safer, more predictable investment environment. Additionally, strong institutions and good governance practices further enhance investor confidence, leading to sustained economic growth through increased foreign investment. Implications to Theory, Practice and Policy: Institutional theory, risk theory and eclectic paradigm may be used to anchor future studies on assessing the influence of political stability on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in Nigeria. In practical terms, businesses and investors should focus on strengthening political institutions to create a stable and predictable environment. Policymakers play a crucial role in creating an environment conducive to FDI by prioritizing the implementation of political reforms that enhance stability. Ensuring free and fair elections, protecting civil liberties, and promoting effective governance structures are vital steps in this direction.

Exploring factors affecting tourists’ purchase intention of Wuhan cuisine

Food has long been considered very important in tourism activities and it has a positive effect on tourist satisfaction. Then local cuisine has become an important attraction for tourist destinations and one of the focuses of destination marketing. This study is based on the theory of perceived value, perceived risk theory, and the theory of planned behavior, aiming to understand tourists’ intentions to purchase local cuisine and its influencing factors, choosing Wuhan, China as the study case, and conducting an empirical survey on tourists visiting Wuhan in 2023. Data analysis was conducted using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling to test the research hypotheses. The results show that the value of quality, price, emotion, cognition, culture and health can improve tourists’ satisfaction and enhance tourists’ purchase intention of Wuhan cuisine. However, social value and perceived risk have no significant effect on satisfaction and purchase intention, tourists’ satisfaction with Wuhan cuisine positively affects tourists’ attitude, and tourists’ satisfaction. Attitude, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control are also key factors to predict tourists’ purchase intention of Wuhan cuisine. The purchase intention model meets the fitting criteria: X²/Df = 1.533, RMSEA = 0.025, CFI = 0.977, IFI = 0.977. The results of this study provide a reference for the competent government departments and related enterprises to promote the development of food tourism in Wuhan.

Understanding consumers’ digital piracy behaviour: Explanation and prediction

This research aims to examine the explanatory and predictive power of seven theoretical models based on neutralisation theory, perceived risk theory, the theory of interpersonal behaviour, the theory of reasoned action, the theory of planned behaviour, the theory of self-regulation, and the norm activation theory. A total of 247 usable data were collected through a survey and analysed using partial least squares structural equation modelling. The in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of each model was assessed. The results indicate that there are different factors influencing consumers’ intentions to pirate digital products. Among the seven theories, the theory of interpersonal behaviour ranks first, and perceived risk theory last in terms of explanatory and predictive power. This study is the very first to examine the explanatory and predictive power of seven different theoretical models using advanced PLS-SEM techniques.