Rubber Exports Research Articles

DYNAMIC SIMULATION OF RUBBER PRODUCTION SYSTEMS USING SSM AND VENSIM APPROACHES

One of the contributors to the agricultural sector, particularly in the plantation sub-sector, is the rubber industry, which accounts for 38.54% of Indonesia's rubber exports. This opportunity arises from the fact that 85% of rubber producers are smallholder farmers, while the remaining share is owned by state and private enterprises. Makmurman is an individual rubber business owner based in South Sumatra Province, with a 4-hectare rubber plantation that directly sells raw rubber to collectors. The rapid advancement of technology in modern life has led to increased use of elastic materials, thereby driving higher demand for rubber, especially in the automotive industry. As a result, Makmurman has experienced a surge in demand for raw rubber from collectors. However, Makmurman has been unable to meet this demand, likely due to the many variables involved in the production process and the sale of raw rubber, which have created challenges. To address these issues, a root cause analysis is conducted to identify the appropriate solution using the soft system methodology approach. Additionally, data processing is carried out using Vensim software to model the rubber production system in a real-world scenario. The results include the development of causal loop diagrams and stock flow diagrams. The expected outcome is a dynamic system simulation with various scenarios, ultimately identifying the best scenario that ensures the highest availability of rubber for Makmurman to meet the demands of the rubber collectors.

Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Inflasi, Produk Domestik Bruto terhadap Ekspor Karet Indonesia Periode 2015 sampai dengan 2022

This study aims to analyze the influence of exchange rate, inflation rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on Indonesian rubber exports during the period of 2015-2022. The objective of this research is to understand the dynamics of economic factors affecting Indonesian rubber exports and their potential contribution to the national economy. A quantitative research method was employed, utilizing regression analysis to test hypotheses regarding the relationship between the aforementioned variables. Data were obtained from official sources such as Bank Indonesia and the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS), encompassing exchange rates, inflation rates, GDP, and rubber export data. The analysis indicates that the exchange rate does not significantly influence Indonesian rubber exports. However, the inflation rate exhibits a significant positive impact on rubber export volume, while GDP growth shows a positive but insignificant influence. Simultaneously, exchange rates, inflation rates, and GDP collectively demonstrate a significant impact on rubber exports. This study underscores the importance of considering the economic factors examined in designing policies and strategies to enhance rubber exports in Indonesia. With a deeper understanding of these factors, it is hoped that better guidance can be provided for economic development in the rubber sector and, consequently, for the national economy.

Posisi Pasar Karet Indonesia Di Pasar Internasional

Indonesia's position as the largest rubber producing country in the world allows them to become the main exporter of natural rubber. Indonesia exports the majority of its natural rubber production to countries like Japan, India, Brazil, the United States, South Korea, China, Turkey, and others. The competition between Indonesia and other producing countries in exporting rubbers to international markets is relatively tight. The aim of this research is to analyze the position of Indonesia’s technically specified natural rubbers (TSNR) in the international market compared to other exporting countries. The analytical method used is the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) Model. The data used in this research is secondary data from Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Ivory Coast, Vietnam, Belgium, and Nigeria over the last 10 years (2012 – 2022). The results show that there is a tight competition between Indonesia and Thailand, Ivory Coast, Belgium, Nigeria and the Rest of the World in competing for market share of natural rubber in the international market because the relationship between Indonesia's natural rubber and these countries are substitutional. Meanwhile, Indonesia's natural rubber relationship with Malaysia is complementary. Indonesian natural rubber is a normal good, so if there is an increase in prices it will cause a decrease in demand. If there is an increase in demand for rubber exports in the international market, then the country that will benefit the most is Vietnam. Meanwhile, Indonesia is the fourth ranked country that will benefit the most if it happens.

Increased Competitiveness of Indonesia's Rubber Rubber Exports After The Enactment of ACFTA (Asean-China Free Trade Agreement)

The ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA), which came into effect in January 2010, aims to increase economic cooperation and remove trade barriers. However, the value of Indonesia's rubber exports decreased significantly after the implementation of this agreement. This study uses the gravity model and Revealed Trade Advantage (RCTA) method to analyze the factors affecting the decline in the value of Indonesia's rubber exports. The data used covers the period 2001-2022 and is taken from various sources including TradeMap and interviews with rubber exporters. Findings show that the value of Indonesia's rubber exports to China and ASEAN countries has fluctuated, with a significant decline after 2011. Gravity model analysis shows that ASEAN-China real GDP growth is negatively related to the value of Indonesian rubber exports, while other factors such as exchange rates and commodity prices also play a role. The decline in Indonesia's rubber export competitiveness is not only caused by the implementation of ACFTA, but also by internal factors such as low productivity and underinvestment. Recommendations are given for commodity price adjustments to improve Indonesia's rubber export competitiveness.

Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Terhadap Ekspor Komoditas Unggulan Indonesia

his study aims to determine the effect of exchange rates on Indonesian commodity exports. Where the exchange rate is a comparison of the value or price of the Rupiah against other currencies. The dependent variable is the export of Indonesia's leading commodities, including Crude Palm Oil (Y1), Rubber (Y2) and textile (Y3) with the independent variable, namely the rupiah exchange rate (X). The data used in this study are time series data from 2012-2017. The method used is simple linear regression analysis, and is processed using the SPSS 16.0 program. The results of this study indicate that the rupiah exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on rubber export commodities and does not have a positive effect on palm oil (CPO) and textile commodities.

PENGARUH KURS, CADANGAN DEVISA DAN PRODUKSI TERHADAP EKSPOR KARET ALAM DI INDONESIA

This study aims to determine the influence of exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves, and production on natural rubber exports in Indonesia. The data used is secondary data in the form of a time series from 1971-2021 obtained from the World Bank and FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). Previous findings have examined exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves, production, and general exports using different commodities. At the same time, this study specializes in exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves, and production associated with natural rubber exports in Indonesia. Data analysis uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach, with all variables being stationary at the same level, i.e., differentiated in the first derivative. All variables must be co-integrated and have a negative ECT (Error Correction Term) value to make the model valid and usable. The results show that the exchange rate variable has a positive and insignificant effect in the short term. In contrast, in the long term, the exchange rate variable positively and significantly impacts natural rubber exports in Indonesia. The foreign exchange reserve variable positively and substantially affects natural rubber exports in Indonesia in the short term. In the long term, the foreign exchange reserve variable positively affects not significantly. Furthermore, production variables in the short term are insignificant, and in the long term, production variables have a positive but insignificant impact on natural rubber exports in Indonesia

Analysis of Factors Affecting Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports

The aim of this research is to determine and analyze the short-term and long-term influence of Indonesian natural rubber production variables, international consumption, and international natural rubber prices on Indonesian natural rubber exports. This research was carried out using Time series data for the period 1989-2022 using numerical calculations of research variables using the Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis method assisted by EViews12 software. The population used in this research is information on Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports for 1989-2022. As a result of the analysis and discussion that has been carried out, it can be concluded that: Indonesian Natural Rubber Production has a positive influence in both the long and short term on Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports. International Natural Rubber Consumption in the long term has an insignificant influence with a negative correlation on the volume of Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports. International Natural Rubber Prices in both the long and short term have an insignificant influence with a positive correlation on Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports.

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF RUBBER DEVELOPMENT POLICIES ON THE NATIONAL ECONOMY, INTRA-SECTOR DYNAMICS, AND EMPLOYMENT: UTILIZING A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL APPROACH

Purpose – This research explores the effects of three rubber development policies on Thailand's economy and employment: increasing import taxes on rubber products, raising the rubber export tariff (CESS), and boosting domestic rubber consumption. The goal is to strengthen the rubber industry's foundation by promoting policies that enhance domestic rubber utilization, expand the rubber processing industry, and support farmer institutions.Methodology – Using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the study analyzes the impact of these policies. Expert brainstorming sessions and in-depth interviews provided additional insights, guiding recommendations for government strategies to streamline rubber supply management and support the entire rubber production chain.Results – Key findings include: 1) Raising the rubber export tariff has minimal impact on the overall economy. 2) Mandating 30% domestic rubber utilization leads to modest economic growth and employment increases, despite Thailand's limited production structure. And 3) Increasing tariffs on imported rubber products has significant macroeconomic effects: a 10% tax increase results in 3.63% economic growth (612,707.70 million THB) and a 2.93% price rise. Employment increases by 6.69%, rubber product prices surge by 23.287% to 26.094%, and primary rubber prices rise by 41.091%.Implications – Policy recommendations include: Streamlining national rubber supply management, supporting upstream rubber production and creating value-added products, aligning rubber research with synthetic rubber needs, - enhancing domestic rubber usage and procurement regulations, developing new strategies for rubber growth, promoting the rubber glove industry, and achieving a 40:60 ratio of natural to synthetic rubber within five years, Establishing rubber special economic zones and strengthening farmer institutions and the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT), and addressing low productivity per acre, establishing a central market, and creating an online platform for future rubber trading to boost producers' earnings and global competitiveness.Originality/Value – Implementing a 10% tariff increase on imported rubber products, comprehensive rubber system management, and maintaining a 30% domestic rubber usage rate are crucial. These measures are expected to invigorate the rubber market and enhance producers' earnings, securing a sustainable competitive advantage globally.

Indonesia's Rubber Exports to the United States

Rubber is one of Indonesia's leading plantation commodities exported to various countries, one of Indonesia's natural rubber market destinations is the United States. Based on data from the trade map, the export value of Indonesian natural rubber in the US market is in first place with an average value of 1,158,164 USD. The purpose of this study is to analyze the trend of Indonesian rubber exports to the United States and to analyze the competitiveness of Indonesian rubber in the United States. The data used is secondary data from 2013-2022. The analysis method used is trend analysis to determine the trend of export development and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) analysis to analyze competitiveness. The results showed that the trend of Indonesia's natural rubber export volume decreased every year. RCA shows an average value of 67.856 which means that Indonesian natural rubber has a comparative advantage and strong competitiveness in the American market.

Determinan Ekspor Komoditas Karet Indonesia Ke Amerika Serikat Periode 1990-2022

Indonesia's rubber exports have always been dominated by the United States as the largest exporting country throughout the year. Recently, rubber exports to the United States have decreased along with the decline in rubber production in Indonesia. The purpose of the study was to analyze the influence of Indonesian rubber production variables, Indonesian rubber land area, Indonesian rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar, Indonesian inflation rate, United States GDP on Indonesian rubber export variables to the United States. The type of data used is secondary data with time series data for the period 1990-2022. The analytical tool used in this study uses the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of this study in the long-term and short-term relationship simultaneously showed that the rubber production variable, the variable area of Indonesian rubber land, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar, the Indonesian inflation rate, and the United States GDP had a significant effect on Indonesian rubber exports to the United States. Partially in the long term and short term relationship shows that the variable production of Indonesian rubber has a positive and significant effect on Indonesian rubber exports to the United States, while the variable area of Indonesian rubber land, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar, the Indonesian inflation rate, and the United States GDP is not significant to Indonesian rubber exports to the United States. Keywords: Export, Production, Land Area, Exchange Rate, Inflation, GDP.

Analysis of the Competitiveness of Indonesian Rubber Exports in International Markets

Indonesia's position as one of the largest rubber producing countries in the world does not make Indonesia a major rubber exporter on the international market. This research aims to analyze comparative competitiveness, competitive competitiveness and specialization of Indonesian rubber trade in the international market. The research methods used are Revealed Comparative Trade Advantage (RTCA), Export Competitiveness Index (XCi), and Trade Specialization Index (ISP). This research uses secondary data for the 2012-2021 period obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and processed using Microsoft Excel tools. The research results show that Indonesian rubber commodities do not have comparative competitiveness, competitive competitiveness and trade specialization as a rubber importer in the international market. RCTA analysis shows an average value of -1.187 placing Indonesia in fourth position among other competing countries. XCi analysis shows an average value of 0.817 making Indonesia the country with the lowest competitiveness compared to other competing countries. ISP analysis shows that Indonesia tends to be a rubber importer with an average value of -0.573 and is at the import substitution stage.

Forecasting of Rubber Export Values in West Kalimantan Using the ARIMA Method

Rubber is one of the largest commodities in Indonesia after palm oil. Rubber has become the primary export commodity in West Kalimantan. In 2023, the export value of rubber in West Kalimantan experienced fluctuations every month. These changes can have a negative impact on the economy in West Kalimantan. Forecasting the value of rubber exports is crucial because the data on rubber export values is often used as a basis for economic planning in a region. The objective of this research is to determine a suitable model for forecasting the value of rubber exports in West Kalimantan and to forecast the value of rubber exports in West Kalimantan for the next 12 periods using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method.In the stage of determining the best model, it was found that the best model for forecasting the value of rubber exports in West Kalimantan is the ARIMA (1,1,0) model, with a MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value of 20.7%. This means that the forecasting results fall into the acceptable category. The forecasting results can be used as an early warning for policy-making related to rubber exports in the upcoming periods.

Effectiveness of Background Segmentation Algorithm and Deep Learning Technique for Detecting Anthracnose (leaf blight) and Golovinomyces cichoracearum (powdery mildew) in Rubber Plant

Rubber is a crucial crop in the Philippines, but it faces the problem of pests and diseases that can significantly reduce yields, impacting rubber exports. To address this problem, a study used image processing techniques to enhance the identification of diseases in rubber trees. The researchers used background segmentation and deep learning to improve the accuracy of identifying anthracnose (leaf blight) and powdery mildew in rubber trees. The study found that using a background segmentation algorithm significantly improved the accuracy of all three architectures, DenseNet, Inception, and MobileNet, for both anthracnose and powdery mildew identification. Specifically, the DenseNet architecture had the highest accuracy rate of 97% for powdery mildew. Meanwhile, the MobileNet architecture achieved an accuracy rate of 98% for powdery mildew and 90% for anthracnose. Overall, the results suggest that using background segmentation algorithms can enhance the accuracy of identifying plant diseases in rubber trees, which could boost the economic growth of rubber exports in the country.

Pengaruh Profitabilitas dan Ukuran Perusahaan Terhadap Struktur Modal

In 2022 exports of plantation companies will experience a significant decline in exports, especially in exports of palm oil and rubber. According to GAPKI, exports of palm oil decreased by 0.4%. And according to GAPKINDO stated that rubber exports decreased by 13.03%. This causes inflation in Indonesia and increases the risk of bankruptcy for companies. This study aims to determine whether there is an effect of profitability and firm size on capital structure. The independent variables studied were Profitability (X1) and Firm Size (X2). The independent variable in this study used Capital Structure (Y). This type of research belongs to the type of exploratory descriptive research, using a case study research method with a quantitative approach. The results of the study stated that partially profitability has a negative effect on capital structure, firm size has no effect on capital structure. Simultaneously the profitability and firm size variables together influence the capital structure. The correlation test states that there is a close relationship between the Profitability variable (X1) and the Firm Size variable (X2) on Capital Structure (Y) with an R2 value of 0.764, which means that this research has the model ability to explain the dependent variables of 76, 4% while 0.246% is explained by other variables not discussed in this study.

ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIAL COMPETITIVENESS OF NATURAL RUBBER EXPORTS IN THE GLOBAL MARKET (COMPARATIVE STUDY IN ITRC COUNTRIES: INDONESIA, THAILAND, AND MALAYSIA)

The objectives of this study are 1) to find out how the potential competitiveness of Indonesian, Thailand, and Malaysian natural rubber exports in the global market compares in terms of their comparative advantages 2) to find out how the comparison of the effect of the exchange rate, production, and the international price of natural rabber on the competitiveness of Indonesian, Thailand, and Malaysian natural rubber export in the global market. The method used in this study is a quantitative method with Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) analysis tools to analyze the export competitiveness of Indonesian, Thailand, and Malaysian natural rubber based on their comparative advantage, and multiple linear regression with the ordinary least square (OLS) method. 1) The results of this study indicate that for Indonesia the average competitiveness of natural rubber exports is 0.9330, while Thailand is 0.9338, and Malaysia is 0.7763. 2) The results of multiple linear regression show that the exchange rate and production variables have no significant effect on the competitiveness of Indonesian and Thailand natural rubber exports, while the international price variable for natural rubber has a significant effect on the competitiveness of Indonesian and Thailand natural rubber exports. And for Malaysia, it shows that the three variables, the exchange rate, production, and international prices of natural rubber have a significant effect on the competitivenss of Malaysia’s natural rubber exports.
 
 Keywords: ITRC country’s natural rubber export competitiveness, Exchange Rates, Production, and International Price of Natural Rubber.

Analysis of The Competitiveness of Indonesian Rubber Exports in The Market International

The object of this study is to know the competitiveness of Indonesian rubber and articles thereof (HS 40) export in international market, also the rivals (China and Thailand) by using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) to analyze the comparative advantage and Export Product Dynamic (EPD) to analyze the competitive advantage. The result shows that Indonesia has a comparative advantage and specializes in rubber and articles thereof (HS 40) export above the average of countries’ based on RCA value, but this commodity is not competitive in capturing the international market based on EPD value. This study also finds the weakness of the RCA method that has been unable to identify the relative productivity (comparative advantage) of country. We underlined that RCA valuein this study is not absolutely shows the strength/weakness of the countries.

Indonesian international trade analysis in agricultural sector case study of natural rubber commodities exports in the ASEAN free market

Natural Rubber is one of Indonesia's leading export commodities and is also one of the largest suppliers in the global market. Rubber and processed rubber export commodities are categorized under the Harmonized System Code 40001 (HS Code 4001) more frequently referred to as HS-4001 so that it is easier to analyze related to commodity trade transactions where in the last few years since 2011 the share of Indonesian Natural Rubber exports always in the top 10 largest exporters in the world. Besides China as the largest exporter, it turns out that Thailand is Indonesia's strongest competitor as a Natural Rubber exporter in ASEAN, therefore with the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) policy in 2016 it is believed that there has been a change in the trade system, namely the export of various commodities including Natural Rubber in the Market. ASEAN. This study uses a descriptive method using various reference sources and secondary data where a lot of data comes from online media, namely various previous studies, online news, and data collected through official websites of government agencies or organizations both national and international. The results of this study indicate that international trade in Indonesian Natural Rubber commodities experienced a significant increase after the implementation of the AEC in 2016 compared to several previous years. It is hoped that the Indonesian government can further encourage natural rubber producers and entrepreneurs to continue to optimize the export of this commodity.

Impacts of natural rubber export trajectories on the regional development of the Brazilian Amazon Region between 1827 and 2021

This study has the following objectives: a - to estimate the instabilities and behavior of the trajectories of prices and exports of Brazilian natural rubber in each of the periods; b - to estimate forecast models of prices and exports of natural rubber from 1827 to 2021; c - to estimate the impacts of price forecast errors on the forecast errors of Brazilian rubber exports in the three periods that classify the trajectory of natural rubber exports. The research used data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and the Brazilian Ministry of Industry and Trade. ARIMA models are estimated to predict the series of exports and prices of Brazilian natural rubber. From these models the forecast errors are generated and the influence of price forecast errors on the forecast errors of natural rubber exports is evaluated. Growth rates of exports and prices in the three periods studied were estimated, as well as the levels of instability of exports and prices. The results showed that both prices and exports of Brazilian natural rubber were quite unstable in the three periods evaluated and that the forecast errors of prices, as was one of the hypotheses of the research, interfered differently in the forecast errors of natural rubber exports and that exports had positive growth rates before and during the rubber cycle, while prices only had positive growth rates before and during the rubber cycle.

Pengaruh Ba’i Sawit Terhadap Tingkat Kesejahteraan Petani Kecamatan Kuta Makmur Kabupaten Aceh Utara

This study was conducted in Indonesia and aimed to examine the effect of rubber production, the dollar exchange rate, and inflation on rubber exports. The data analysis method used was multiple linear regression. The results showed that rubber production and inflation positively and significantly influenced rubber exports, while the dollar exchange rate negatively and significantly influenced rubber exports. Simultaneously, rubber production, the dollar exchange rate, and inflation positively and significantly influenced rubber exports in Indonesia, and the magnitude (R^2) of the effect of the amount of production, dollar exchange rate, and inflation on rubber exports was 0.5979 (59.79%)

Automatic Clustering and Fuzzy Logical Relationship to Predict the Volume of Indonesia Natural Rubber Export

Natural rubber is one of the pillars of Indonesia's export commodities. However, over the last few years, the export value of natural rubber has decreased due to an oversupply of this commodity in the global market. To overcome this problem, it is possible to predict the volume of Indonesia natural rubber exports. Predicted values can also help the government to compile market intelligence for natural rubber commodities periodically. In this study, the prediction of the export volume of natural rubber was carried out using the Automatic Clustering as an interval maker in the Fuzzy Time Series or usually called Automatic Clustering and Fuzzy Logical Relationship (ACFLR). The data used is 51 data per year from 1970 to 2020. The purpose of this study is to predict the volume of Indonesia natural rubber exports and compare the prediction results between the Automatic Clustering and Fuzzy Logical Relationship (ACFLR) and Chen's Fuzzy Time Series. The results showed that there was a significant difference between the two methods, ACFLR got 0.5316% MAPE with and Chen's Fuzzy Time Series model got 8.009%. Show that the ACFLR method performs better than the pure Fuzzy Time Series in predicting volume of Indonesia natural rubber exports.