A modeling study is conducted to gain insight into the factors that control the intensity and organization of tropical convection, and in particular to examine if organization occurs in the absence of factors such as vertical wind shear or underlying sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. The control experiment integrates a cloud-resolving model for 15 days using a 3D domain exceeding 1000 km in length, with no imposed winds, and horizontally uniform SST and forcing for convection. After 2 days of random activity, the convection organizes into clusters with dimensions of approximately 200 km. Convective systems propagate through the clusters at speeds of 2–3 m s−1, while the clusters themselves propagate at minimal speeds of around 0.5 m s−1. Examining the thermodynamic structure of the model domain, it is found that the convective free bands separating the clusters are very dry throughout the troposphere, and due to virtual temperature effects, are correspondingly warmer in the lower troposphere and boundary layer. This suggests a positive feedback between convection and water vapor, where convective moistening of the local atmosphere renders it more favorable to future convection. The existence of this feedback is demonstrated by experiments in which the free-tropospheric water vapor is perturbed in convective regions, and it is found that the lower-atmospheric water vapor is most critical in controlling convection, most likely through the role of downdrafts. Examination of the boundary layer in the control experiment also indicated that convectively generated cold pools also play a key role in the organization of convection, possibly by their influence on the boundary layer water vapor field. In order to see how the water vapor feedback modifies established convective organization, a further experiment was conducted with an SST gradient imposed, which established a mock Walker cell type circulation, with ascending motion over the warmest SSTs. After 5 days, the SST gradient is reversed to see how the convection would establish itself over the new SST maximum. This highly idealized experiment therefore represents a surrogate for the atmospheric response to SST “hotspots,” that observations have shown to form under the descending branch of large-scale tropical circulations such as the Madden–Jullian oscillation, due to increased incident solar radiation and decreased latent heat fluxes at the surface. It is found that the convection does not spontaneously initiate over the new SST maximum, but instead must propagate toward it. After a further 5 days, much longer than the boundary layer adjustment timescale, the warmest SSTs are still completely free from convection. This is directly due to the dryness of the atmosphere caused by the initial period of subsidence. A further set of experiments examines the robustness of the feedback in cases of imposed vertical wind shear. It is found that strong wind shears prevent the feedback by effectively mixing water vapor. However, the feedback is still very important in cases of weak wind shears.
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