Role Of Weather Research Articles

Beneath the colorness skies: Does weather influence consumer color preference?

Understanding consumer preference is crucial for optimizing inventory management and enhancing consumer satisfaction. While previous research has explored various determinants of consumer choices, the role of weather in shaping consumer color preference has received little attention. This study addresses this gap by investigating how key weather variables—temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed—affect consumer color preference in the fashion clothing market. Using data from 3,184,162 transactions across 99 physical fashion retail stores in Italy, we analyze consumer clothing purchases as indicators of color preference. Our findings reveal that higher temperatures and relative humidity lead consumers to prefer cooler clothing colors, while increased wind speed encourages the selection of warmer colors. Additionally, fashion trends play a moderating role in shaping the relationship between weather conditions and color preference. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the weather's influence on consumer behavior and offers valuable insights for retailers, enabling them to better anticipate changes in consumer preference under different weather conditions and reduce supply-demand imbalances.

High-Resolution Land Use Land Cover Dataset for Meteorological Modelling—Part 2: ECOCLIMAP-SG-ML an Ensemble Land Cover Map

While the surface of the Earth plays a key role in weather forecasting through its interaction with the atmosphere, in ensemble numerical weather predictions the uncertainty on the surface is only represented with perturbations in the parameterisations representing the surface processes. Data representing the surface, such as the land cover, are not perturbed. As fully data-driven forecasts without parameterisations are growing in importance, sampling the uncertainty on the land cover data brings a new way of making ensemble forecasts. Our work describes a method of generating ensemble land cover maps for numerical weather prediction. The target land cover map has the ECOCLIMAP-SG labels used in the SURFEX surface model and therefore is expected to have all relevant labels for surface-atmosphere interactions. The method translates the ESA WorldCover map to ECOCLIMAP-SG labels and resolution using auto-encoders. The land cover ensemble members are obtained by sampling the land cover probabilities in the output of the neural network. This paper builds upon the work done in a companion paper describing the high-resolution version of ECOCLIMAP-SG, called ECOCLIMAP-SG+, used for the training and evaluation of the neural network. The output map presented here, called ECOCLIMAP-SG-ML, improves upon the ECOCLIMAP-SG map in terms of resolution (from 300 m to 60 m), overall accuracy (from 0.41 to 0.63), and the ability to produce ensemble members.

Evaluating vector winds over eastern China in 2022 predicted by the CMA-MESO model and ECMWF forecast

Vector winds play a crucial role in weather and climate, as well as the effective utilization of wind energy resources. However, limited research has been conducted on treating the wind field as a vector field in the evaluation of numerical weather prediction models. In this study, we treat vector winds as a whole by employing a vector field evaluation method, and evaluate the mesoscale model of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA-MESO) and ECMWF forecast, with reference to ERA5 reanalysis, in terms of multiple aspects of vector winds over eastern China in 2022. The results show that the ECMWF forecast is superior to CMA-MESO in predicting the spatial distribution and intensity of 10-m vector winds. Both models overestimate the wind speed in East China, and CMA-MESO overestimates the wind speed to a greater extent. The forecasting skill of the vector wind field in both models decreases with increasing lead time. The forecasting skill of CMA-MESO fluctuates more and decreases faster than that of the ECMWF forecast. There is a significant negative correlation between the model vector wind forecasting skill and terrain height. This study provides a scientific evaluation of the local application of vector wind forecasts of the CMA-MESO model and ECMWF forecast.

Weather, climate, and entry into migration of northern fur seal pups

In the migration of young animals, environmental cues can play an outsized role in dispersal, ontogeny, and potentially survival. Identifying and quantifying such cues promotes an understanding of individual species’ migratory evolution and response to long-term environmental change. This study examines weather as a proximate factor for initiating first migration in a wide-ranging subpolar marine predator, the northern fur seal (laaqudax̂, in Unangam Tunuu; Callorhinus ursinus (Linnaeus 1758)). Observations of satellite-telemetered pups on three islands in the eastern Bering Sea, Alaska (US) are used to quantify how inclement weather (high winds, snow, and low temperatures) increases departure rate. Historical weather is then used to reconstruct departure, from the mid-20th century onward. Contemporary surveys provide a test for reconstructed estimates and highlight behavioral processes near the entry to migration. Reconstructions provide novel climate context for large-scale population declines in the eastern Bering Sea since the 1950s; within their limitations, there is a lack of evidence for trends in departure or significant influence on demography. Results here build upon and support historical knowledge regarding the role of weather, while also highlighting potential areas of future study – such as maternal behavior – in influencing the entry into first migration in this species.

Development of an ARIMAX model for forecasting airport electricity consumption in Accra-Ghana: The role of weather and air passenger traffic

The rapid expansion of the aviation industry has significantly increased energy consumption within airport terminals. This study introduces an advanced ARIMAX model to forecast electricity consumption at Kotoka International Airport (KIA) in Ghana by incorporating weather conditions and air passenger numbers. By analysing data from 2019 to 2022, including lockdown periods, the model demonstrates superior predictive accuracy, evidenced by an RMSE of 55,914 kWh, a MAPE of 4.22 %, and an R-squared value of 0.899. Key determinants of energy consumption identified include air passengers and temperature, highlighting their substantial impact on energy use. The ARIMAX model's accuracy underscores its potential for enhancing energy management practices at airports. By integrating variables such as air passenger traffic and weather conditions, the model refines energy demand predictions, supporting more efficient energy use and operational planning. The ARIMAX model proves to be a valuable tool for forecasting energy consumption at KIA, aiding in energy management and sustainability efforts.

High interspecific variability in ice nucleation activity suggests pollen ice nucleators are incidental

Abstract. Ice-nucleating macromolecules (INMs) produced by plant pollen can nucleate ice at warm temperatures and may play an important role in weather- and climate-relevant cloud glaciation. INMs have also proved useful for mammalian cell and tissue model cryopreservation. The high ice nucleation (IN) activity of some INMs indicates an underlying biological function, either freezing tolerance or bioprecipitation-mediated dispersal. Here, using the largest study of pollen ice nucleation to date, we show that phylogenetic proximity, spermatophyte subdivision, primary growth biome, pollination season, primary pollination method, desiccation tolerance and native growth elevation do not account for the IN activity of INMs released from different plant species' pollen. The results suggest that these macromolecules are produced by plants for a purpose unrelated to ice nucleation and have an incidental ability to nucleate ice. This ability may have been adapted by some species for specific biological purposes, producing exceptional ice nucleators. Pollen INMs may be more active, widespread in nature, and diverse than previously thought.

Enhancing the description of multi-time-scale geophysical phenomena: Incorporating finite time Scale separation and feedback, illustrated with the case of a 1D variable of interest.

Stochastic approaches play a vital role in weather, climate, and, more in general, geophysics systems, addressing processes and scales beyond the resolution of deterministic models. Similar to equilibrium/non-equilibrium thermodynamics, intricate fast and local dynamics may not always be the primary focus. Practical applications often prioritize observables capturing phenomena at dominant temporal and spatial scales. Developing models for these "large-scale" observables, resulting from averaging fast and local contributions, can be simplified into Low Order Models (LOMs) with reduced degrees of freedom described by ordinary differential equations. Unresolved degrees of freedom are introduced as stochastic components, exhibiting either Markovian or non-Markovian characteristics. The challenge lies in deriving dependable stochastic differential equations representing the statistics of real large-scale, slow features in the climate/ocean system. While paralleling material physics, it is crucial to recognize that direct transfer of tools and outcomes is hindered by the non-Hamiltonian nature of climate/geophysical LOMs and the impracticality of a Markovian treatment of noise due to wide-ranging time scales. A critical examination of the conventional statistical mechanics approach, customized for such LOMs, becomes essential. To this end, we propose utilizing an approach based on the operator cumulant method, which has been recently revisited and generalized, along with the linear response method in a non-Hamiltonian setting. Formal results are then derived, and applications to some typical classes of examples are presented to clarify this approach.

Nonlinear Response of Summertime Synoptic-Scale Disturbance Intensity over the Tropical Western North Pacific to ENSO Amplitude

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits nonlinearity in its amplitude and impacts. This study investigates the dependence of summertime synoptic-scale disturbance (SSD) intensity over the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP) on the ENSO amplitude. A tendency of nonlinearity exists in the observed response of the TWNP SSD intensity to the amplitude of tropical central-eastern Pacific (CEP) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in boreal summer. Numerical experiments are conducted with an atmospheric general circulation model with linearly varying tropical CEP SST anomalies imposed to illustrate the nonlinearity exclusively induced by changes in the ENSO amplitude. A linear increase in the amplitude of El Niño–like SST anomalies results in a nonlinear enhancement of SSD intensity over the TWNP, manifested as the increase in SSD intensity at a rate larger than expected by linear response with an eastward shift. This is attributed to the nonlinear intensification of anomalous ascent over the TWNP induced by tropical convection response to positive tropical CEP SST anomalies and the nonlinear effect of anomalous convection on the synoptic-scale activity. In contrast, as La Niña–like SST anomalies increase linearly, the SSD intensity over the TWNP decreases at a rate slower than expected from a linear response and even reaches saturation with little longitudinal shift. Due to the thermodynamic control on the occurrence of deep convection in the tropics, enhanced negative SST anomalies do not induce additional changes in anomalous descent over the tropical CEP. Thus, the TWNP SSD intensity no longer decreases with further increase in tropical CEP cold SST anomalies. Significance Statement Synoptic-scale disturbances (SSDs) over the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP) play an important role in weather and climate over East and Southeast Asia. Impacts of those SSDs are contingent on their intensity. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has substantial impacts on weather and climate worldwide, including the SSDs over the TWNP. ENSO displays a diversity in amplitude, spatial pattern, and temporal evolution. The present study investigates the response of the TWNP SSD intensity to varying ENSO amplitude during boreal summer and reveals a distinctive nonlinear response of the TWNP SSD intensity to the amplitude of El Niño and La Niña, which has important implication for understanding the impacts of ENSO on climate over the TWNP and Asia.

A unified model for frost wedging in an open fissure under unidirectional freezing

The propagation of joints and fissures, included by the frost heaving pressure arising from the water-ice phase transition is considered as frost wedging. This process is widely observed and plays a crucial role in weathering of jointed hard rocks in cold regions. Despite some fundamental results achieved in former experimental studies, a unified theoretical model is still absent, hindering a thorough understanding of this process. To further explore the mechanism of frost wedging during the freezing process, this paper firstly carries out a frost heave test on a rock block bearing a single open fissure. The results indicate that the evolution of frost heaving pressure in the fissure can be divided into four stages: sealing of the open fissure by ice wedge, ice wedge slipping, crack propagation, as well as stabilization of the ice-filled fissure. Based on the laboratory test results, a unified model for the frost heaving pressure in a single open fissure is established, which comprehensively takes into account the mechanical interaction between ice, water and rock. The model is validated by the test result, and it can reasonably describe the formation of the sealing conditions and the process of crack propagation. Fracture of the ice-rock interface near the free surface increases the likelihood of ice wedge slip, while frost wedging mainly damages geological bodies during crack propagation.

A novel machine learning-based approach for improving global correction of AIRS-derived water vapor satellite product

Precise precipitable water vapor (PWV) observations play a crucially important role in weather and climate research. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on-board the Aqua spacecraft is a hyperspectral instrument that offers operational PWV products using infrared (IR) channels. However, the observational accuracy of AIRS-sensed cloudy-sky PWV products is much poorer than that of PWV retrievals under clear sky conditions. We present a new machine learning-based calibration model to improve the observational performance of operational AIRS-derived IR PWV satellite products under all sky conditions, which considers using several dependence elements correlated with remotely sensed IR PWV observations. The first-guess PWV estimates, obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis, are also utilized in the newly developed calibration approach. The ground-based GNSS-sensed PWV observations, collected in 2017 across the world, are used as the expected PWV output for the training of the newly proposed calibration model. The newly calibrated PWV data records considerably outperform operational AIRS-sensed PWV products, compared with independent PWV estimates from radiosonde observations during 2017–2020. The root-mean-square error of operational PWV satellite products decreases 19.05 % from 2.31 mm to 1.87 mm under cloud fraction (CF) = 0 condition (clear sky), 30.71 % from 3.68 mm to 2.55 mm under CF = (0,1] condition (cloudy sky), and 30.14 % from 3.55 mm to 2.48 mm under CF = [0,1] condition (all sky). The calibration method exhibits much higher RMSE reductions than previous approaches that do not utilize the first-guess PWV estimates, illustrating the effectiveness of our calibration approach. This research provides insights into calibrating satellite-sensed PWV estimates based on machine learning by jointly using ground-based and reanalysis-based PWV observations. The newly proposed calibration method has significant potential to calibrate operational PWV products from other satellite-borne sensors, in addition to the AIRS instrument.

Abstract P469: Ambient Weather is Associated With Sleep and Activity in Rural South

Background: Physical activity and sleep are two of the Life’s Essential 8 steps for a healthy lifestyle and prevention of cardiovascular disease. The role of weather on an individual’s ability to meet physical activity and sleep goals is unknown. This is relevant in rural settings where the risk of cardiovascular disease is disproportionately high and extreme weather patterns are common. Objective: To investigate the association between local weather conditions and physical activity and sleep, as measured by Fitbit devices among participants in rural Alabama. Methods: Participants were enrolled from rural counties in Alabama as part of an observational study to understand cardiovascular risk in the rural Southeast. Each enrolled participant was given a Fitbit device to collect physical activity and sleep data, including total steps per day and sleep duration for six months. Weather data were obtained from a NOAA Regional Climate Center’s Applied Climate Information System for the dates each participant collected physical activity and sleep data using the participants’ zip code as location. A linear mixed effects model was used to examine the associations of daily precipitation, minimum and maximum daily ambient temperature (modeled as tertiles), BMI, gender, and age with sleep duration and daily physical activity. Results: A total of 942 participants were enrolled in the subcohort from the Alabama counties and 716 (76%) received a Fitbit device. Complete data were available from 561 participants generating 63,176 study-days. The subcohort average age was 48.8 with average BMI of 36.0 Kg/m 2 , 70% (n =660) female, and 78.7% (n = 751) Black. On average, women slept 29.1 more minutes every night (p< 0.001) but recorded 1,225 fewer steps (p <0.001) in comparison to men. An increase in BMI (1 Kg/m 2 increment) was associated with lesser sleep duration (0.98 minutes; p = 0.02) and lower daily step count (70.5, p <0.001). After adjusting for confounders, the upper tertile of ambient daily maximum temperature was associated with lesser sleep duration (5.3 minutes, p<0.001) and physical activity (218 steps, p < 0.001) in comparison to the middle tertile (referent). Conversely lowest tertile of ambient daily maximum temperature was associated with longer sleep duration (5.7 minutes, p=0.003) but not physical activity (22.0 steps, p = 0.71). An increase of an inch of ambient daily precipitation was not significantly associated with sleep duration (p=.49) but was associated with decreased physical activity (251 steps p <0.001). Conclusions: In our cross-sectional study, local temperature and precipitation were associated with lesser sleep duration and physical activity. Further analyses are warranted to understand patterns of these associations and the identification of factors that exacerbate or mitigate these weather-related associations may inform clinical practices and research direction.

The Role of Weather and the Natural-Climate Factor in the Daily Nomadic Life of the Kalmyks in the Context of Traditional Nature Utilization: Effective Frontier Practices

The article is devoted to the role of the climate factor and weather in the everyday nomadic life and history of the Kalmyks, closely linked with traditional nature management. Based on the study of published and archival materials from the State Archive of the Astrakhan Region, the State Archive of the Saratov Region, and the National Archive of the Republic of Kalmykia, the article examines the main features of the nature management system, the functioning and life of the Kalmyk nomadic society in new geographical conditions, and analyzes the processes of adaptation of nomads to the specific resources of an arid ecosystem. For the Kalmyks, who led a nomadic lifestyle in the past, nature was not only a habitat but also the basis of life. Moving in search of pastures for livestock, Kalmyk pastoralists learned to use natural resources rationally. The article shows how people tried to harness these resources through magical rites. The nomadic way of life, the economic structure, the natural landscape, and the life of the nomad cattle breeder – all predetermined the nature of magic as a whole. Special attention is paid to a system of prohibitions related to nature, land, and water. “Russia’s Steppe Frontier” is an invaluable resource for understanding the Kalmyks’ historical experience in the field of nature management.

Photoaged Tire Wear Particles Leading to the Oxidative Damage on Earthworms (Eisenia fetida) by Disrupting the Antioxidant Defense System: The Definitive Role of Environmental Free Radicals.

Tire wear particles (TWPs) have caused increasing concerns due to their detrimental effects on the soil ecosystem. However, the role of weathering in altering the toxicity of TWP to soil organisms is poorly understood. In this study, the toxicity of original and photoaged TWP was compared using earthworms (Eisenia fetida) as soil model organisms. The obtained results indicated that photoaging of TWP resulted in an increase of environmentally persistent free radicals (EPFRs) from 3.69 × 1017 to 5.20 × 1017 spin/g. Meanwhile, photoaged TWP induced the changes of toxic endpoint in E. fetide, i.e., the increase of the weight loss and death ratio from 0.0425 to 0.0756 g/worm and 23.3 to 50% compared to original TWP under a 10% concentration, respectively. Analyses of transcriptomics, antioxidant enzyme activity, and histopathology demonstrated that the enhanced toxicity was mainly due to oxidative damage, which was induced by disruption in the antioxidant defense system. Free-radical quenching and correlation analysis further suggested that the excessive production of ex vivo reactive oxygen species, induced by EPFRs, led to the exhaustion of the antioxidant defense system. Overall, this work provides new insights into the potential hazard of the weathered TWP in a soil environment and has significant implications for the recycling and proper disposal of spent tire particles.

Hot climate, hot koalas: the role of weather, behaviour and disease on thermoregulation.

Thermoregulation is critical for endotherms living in hot, dry conditions, and maintaining optimal core body temperature (Tb) in a changing climate is an increasingly challenging task for mammals. Koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) have evolved physiological and behavioural strategies to maintain homeostasis and regulate their Tb but are thought to be vulnerable to prolonged heat. We investigated how weather, behaviour and disease influence Tb for wild, free-living koalas during summer in north-west New South Wales. We matched Tb with daily behavioural observations in an ageing population where chlamydial disease is prevalent. Each individual koala had similar Tb rhythms (average Tb = 36.4 ± 0.05°C), but male koalas had higher Tb amplitude and more pronounced daily rhythm than females. Disease disrupted the 24-hr circadian pattern of Tb. Koala Tb increased with ambient temperature (Ta). On the hottest day of the study (maximum Ta = 40.8°C), we recorded the highest (Tb = 40.8°C) but also the lowest (Tb = 32.4°C) Tb ever documented for wild koalas, suggesting that they are more heterothermic than previously recognized. This requires individuals to predict days of extreme Ta from overnight and early morning conditions, adjusting Tb regulation accordingly, and it has never been reported before for koalas. The large diel amplitude and low minimum Tb observed suggest that koalas at our study site are energetically and nutritionally compromised, likely due to their age. Behaviour (i.e. tree hugging and drinking water) was not effective in moderating Tb. These results indicate that Ta and koala Tb are strongly interconnected and reinforce the importance of climate projections for predicting the future persistence of koalas throughout their current distribution. Global climate models forecast that dry, hot weather will continue to escalate and drought events will increase in frequency, duration and severity. This is likely to push koalas and other arboreal folivores towards their thermal limit.

Weathering pulses during glacial-interglacial transitions: Insights from well-dated paleosols in the Azores volcanic province (Central North Atlantic)

Volcanic islands evolve through complex interactions between volcano growth and surface processes. Climate changes impact the physical and chemical processes that drive weathering and denudation. While global paleoclimate has been extensively studied for the late Quaternary, elucidating the local climatic response to global forcing on such islands remains challenging. São Miguel is a volcanic island in the Eastern Azores, located in the Central North Atlantic, a region susceptible to changes in large-scale atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. It comprises numerous paleosols (PSs), whose geochemistry results from volcanic rocks' weathering and can serve as a proxy to reconstruct paleoclimatic conditions. New K–Ar and 40Ar/39Ar ages of volcanic units “bracketing” (under and overlying) PSs reveal four periods of enhanced soil formation (∼820–765 ka, ∼425–430 ka, ∼170–75 ka, <10 ka), coinciding with rapid glacial-interglacial transitions (Terminations I, II, V, IX). Our reconstructed mean annual precipitation (MAP; 500–1200 mm yr−1) and air temperature (MAAT; 12–18 °C) are higher during interglacial peaks. This, in addition to the coherence of MAAT with previous Sea Surface Temperature reconstructions, shows consistency between local and global climate dynamics. The texture of parental rocks played a significant role in weathering, with PSs predominantly restricted to the brecciated upper part of lava flows and to pyroclastic deposits, which exhibited distinctive precipitation thresholds for their formation (∼800 mm yr−1 and ∼500 mm yr−1, respectively). PSs developed on basaltic lava flows exhibit greater elemental loss, due to a high glass proportion and low permeability, which prevents fluids percolation out of the soils. As present-day precipitation and temperature exceed those of the past, enhanced weathering is expected in São Miguel and other volcanic islands, with local to global impacts (e.g., carbon cycling), especially in the context of ongoing global warming.

Global diagnosis of land–atmosphere coupling based on water isotopes

Land–atmosphere coupling (LAC) plays a significant role in weather and climate and is related to droughts and heatwaves. We propose a simple and efficient LAC diagnosis method based on the analysis of water isotopes in atmospheric water vapour and precipitation. Using the method, we identify the primary LAC hotspot regions of the globe and reveal the seasonality of LAC strength. We find that LAC strength exhibits a relationship with latitude. Low latitudes present stronger LAC strength and contribute more significantly to the overall LAC area compared to boreal middle and high latitudes. It's important to note that LAC primarily manifests in the troposphere and is detected in the lower stratosphere of low latitudes, with limited influence observed in the stratosphere. However, the impact of LAC is noticeable in the upper stratosphere in boreal middle and high latitudes. Moreover, the seasonality of LAC strength is pronounced. On a global scale, the season with the strongest LAC is boreal autumn in the Northern Hemisphere but boreal summer in the Southern Hemisphere. Notably, this pattern does not exhibit a seesaw effect between the two hemispheres. Our isotope-based LAC diagnosis method captures the major LAC hotspots found in previous work and validates the seasonality of LAC within these hotspots. This substantiates the reliability and effectiveness of our isotope-based approach.

Outdoor recreationists’ engagement with weather: The weather-outdoor recreation process model

The role of weather in outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism constitutes a growing area of research. Yet how and when weather influences the individual outdoor recreation experience continues to warrant investigation. Furthermore, concepts and knowledge about human-weather relationships are scattered across several disciplines. This paper consolidates the literature and relationships into a conceptual model that illustrates the ways in which recreationists engage with weather during the nature-based outdoor recreation experience. At the core of the model, constructed using a multidisciplinary literature review and expert appraisal process, is the person-weather environment fit process. During each phase of the recreation experience, individuals assess and respond to weather conditions considering their recreational goals, chosen activity, comfort, health and safety, and site access. When faced with an incongruent fit, individuals engage in a process of weather constraints negotiation. Intervening factors and negotiation responses are highlighted, as are personal and other environmental factors that may influence perceptions of the thermal context and weather. The resulting conceptual model is intended to be applicable to most individuals, outdoor recreation activities and settings, and regions. The model can be used to situate existing outdoor recreation-weather research, stimulate future research, and inform management. Management implications•The Weather-Outdoor Recreation Process Model (WORP) provides fodder for academic discourse, testable hypotheses, research ideas, and advances our collective understanding of outdoor recreation.•The model provides outdoor recreation researchers and management interested in understanding how weather plays a role or otherwise influences recreationists' experiences and behaviors with a conceptual map of recreationist-weather interactions.•Researchers may choose to use the conceptual model and accompanying literature review as a means for exploring various concepts and relationships.•Recreation managers may consult the model in order to grasp the range of possible weather concerns and identify entry points for interventions to support year-round recreation and positive outcomes for different groups.•The model can be applied in a training or formal education environment as a basis to discuss the complexities of outdoor recreation and associated variables.•Practitioners can use the WORP to identify how improvements in infrastructure and/or information provision may help increase the ability of outdoor recreationists to negotiate weather constraints.

The Histories of Well-Documented Maritime Cyclones as Portrayed by an Automated Tracking Method

Abstract This study examines extratropical cyclone tracks, central pressure, and maximum intensification rates from a widely used automated cyclone tracking scheme and compares them with the manual tracking of five well-known North Atlantic cyclones whose histories are available in the refereed literature. The automated tracking scheme is applied to sea level pressure data from four different reanalyses of varying levels of sophistication to test the sensitivity of the results to input data resolution and quality. Further, we test the tracking scheme using lower-tropospheric vorticity obtained from the most recent reanalysis (ERA5) for four of these cyclone events. Substantial discrepancies in cyclone position, intensity, and maximum intensification rates exist between the manual tracking and the automated tracking and are not eliminated by using higher-resolution reanalyses or by “turning off” the spatial smoothing feature of the automated tracking scheme (needed to reduce spurious cyclone detections). The results point to a particular problem in detecting weaker and earlier stage cyclones and confirm findings from studies that have examined a broad range of cyclone tracking schemes for a range of reanalyses. Notably, this early cyclone stage often involves a smaller-scale secondary cyclogenesis or cyclone wave, which are detected by the automated scheme only after subsequent growth in the ensuing 6–12 h. It is known that these early stages are critical for a comprehensive understanding of rapid intensification events. A discussion of possible future solutions to this problem is presented. Significance Statement Because of the availability of large modern datasets portraying sea level pressure across the globe, meteorologists have turned to automated detection and tracking of midlatitude cyclones. Detection and tracking are of interest since these storm systems play an important role in weather and climate and potential changes in their location, frequency, and intensity are of considerable societal interest given climate change. This paper compares the results obtained from one commonly used automated tracking method with tracks obtained by human analysts. We find substantial discrepancies in cyclone position, intensity, and intensification rates and that these differences are not eliminated by using improved analyses. A discussion of possible future solutions is presented.

Storm tracks and cyclogenesis over the Southern Ocean: An overview with the HadGEM3‐GC3.1 model

AbstractExtratropical cyclones play an important role in shaping the weather and climate over vast regions across the globe. To effectively understand and manage the impact of these meteorological events, it is crucial to explore deeper into their structure and behaviour. Here, we have evaluated the characteristics and spatial distribution of extratropical cyclones that had their genesis in the Southern Ocean (SO) in the present climate, based on data from the HadGEM3‐GC3.1‐MM (HG3) global model and the ERA5 reanalysis. Both in winter and summer, cyclone tracks are spatially structured, forming a belt around the entire Antarctic continent, with greater concentration in the SO sector adjacent to the southern Pacific Ocean. The regions of the Somov, Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas exhibited a higher track density of moderate and strong cyclones, indicating a correlation with the strongest baroclinicity in these areas. In both datasets, the maximum occurrence of cyclogenesis was located over the regions of the Somov Sea and the Antarctic Peninsula, making these regions very important in the general configuration of cyclones along the SO. Despite underestimating the total number of cyclones along the SO, the HG3 model showed a good ability to represent the main patterns of cyclonic activity around the Antarctic continent, as well as its average behaviour. Knowing the characteristics and the behaviour of extratropical cyclones in such an important area for global climate is essential for understanding their role in weather and future climate resulting from climate change.

The validity of Okun's Law in the case of Central Asia: The role of weather and energy factors.

This study investigates a modified version of the Okun's Law that incorporates energy consumption and temperature for five Central Asian countries, while it employs the ARDL methodology, spanning the period 1995-2018. While the original Okun's Law is not supported, the analysis does find support for the modified Law, suggesting the importance of regional specific factors. The results document the presence of a negative association between unemployment and real GNP both in the short and in the long run. The impact of energy consumption on unemployment is positive in the long run, while the temperature impacts unemployment both in the short and in the long run.