Since the 1960s, yields of the rock lobster Jasus lalandii have declined greatly in the Namaqualand (northern Cape) region from c. 3l°50′S (Doring Bay) north to the Orange River. The population of rock lobsters in this region is crowded into a subtidal fringe within the kelp beds whereas, farther south, animals approaching sexual maturity tend to move offshore to deeper waters, so that adults are found in depths up to 70 m or more. Females attain sexual maturity at a smaller size in the Namaqualand region (and in Namibia) than farther south and growth rates of adults are retarded. Simulation models are used to show how stunted juvenile growth and increased rates of natural mortality can result in the typical size distributions observed in the Namaqualand region. This is contrasted with simulations for more typical grounds to the south, where growth rates of both adults and juveniles are faster. The models also illustrate the effects of reduced growth and survival on population fecundity, fecundity per recruit and yield per recruit, assuming constant average annual recruitment in all areas. The simulations demonstrate that overcrowding and stress, brought about by a diminution in the habitat area available to lobsters in the Namaqualand region, could have led directly to reduced production and yields. This region is characterized by the presence of very low levels of dissolved oxygen in waters near the sea bed just outside the kelp beds. Oxygen deficiency is thought to have increased in the central and northern Benguela system since the 1960s as a result of changes in the rate of phyto-detrital deposition and decay in this highly eutrophic system.
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