Risky Shift Phenomenon Research Articles

Publicity of initial decisions and the risky shift phenomenon

This study investigates the role of a variable, relative publicity of initial decisions, on the risky shift phenomenon. Ninety-six male and 96 female S's in same sex groups of four were administered the Wallach and Kogan (1959) Choice Dilemmas instrument, in a 4 × 2 factorial design which investigated public and private initial decisions for familiarization, listening, information, and discussion conditions. As predicted, discussion public and listening private condition individual decisions shifted to risk. A second hypothesis, that risky shifts would be larger within each condition when initial decisions remained private than when they had been made public was rejected. More initial decisions were found to have changed when these remained private than when they were made public. An extreme groups analysis revealed that larger risky shifts occurred for those subjects whose confidence was low than for those whose confidence was high. The significance of the publicity variable and the necessity of its control is discussed. Some attention is given to the relevance of the results for previously advanced explanatory mechanisms of the risky shift phenomenon.

Pessimism-optimism and risk taking in individual and group contexts.

Choice-dilemmas items were administered with the customary risk-taking format (minimal acceptable odds to warrant recommendation of the desirable risky alternative) and with a pessimism-opti mism format (estimation of the actual real-world probability of success of the desirable risky alternative). Following individual testing to establish base-line levels, subjects were randomly assigned to either a risk-pessimism or pessimism-risk treatment. In the former, discussion to consensus was focused on the risk dimension, and subsequent pessimism-optimism judgments were made privately; in the latter, discussion to consensus was focused on the pessimism-optimism dimension, and subsequent risk decisions were made privately. Results indicated that the link between risk and pessimism was asymmetrical. The risky shift was produced only when discussion was oriented along the risk-taking dimension. In contrast, pessimistic shifts were obtained following both risk-oriented and pessimism-oriented discussions. Group-induced pessimism was attributed to pooling or heightened realization of the things that might go wrong in pursuing a risky course of action. As studies on the risky-shift phenomenon in groups continue to proliferate, investigators have begun to inquire into the conditions that militate against the phenomenon in both laboratory and real-world contexts. Thus, Madaras and Bern (1968) have recently pointed to three factors that place limits on the generalizability of risky-shift effects following group interaction: (a) moral or other cost considerations associated with the risky alternative; (b) the impingement of the decision consequences on persons other than those involved in the act of decision making; and (c) the observation that the shift toward risk is accompanied by a shift toward pessimism, the latter possibly having a decisive effect in a complex decision-making situation,

Matched Groups and the Risky Shift Phenomenon: a Defence of the Extreme Member Hypothesis

A classification of hypotheses concerning the ‘risky‐shift’ phenomenon was suggested, which was based on three broad approaches. In order to determine which of the three main explanations of the phenomenon is most likely, an experiment was designed to counteract the effects of individual persuasion within the group situation. This was achieved by matching the members of the experimental groups so that all had accepted the same probability levels in the initial, alone, condition of the Choice Dilemmas task. This led to a small, non‐significant risky shift following group discussion which was of comparable size to the small shift found in controls who repeated the alone condition. It is suggested that individual persuasion in addition to familiarization with the problems leads groups to make riskier decisions.

Risky-Shift Phenomenon in Moral Attitudes of High School Boys and Girls

The risky-shift phenomenon was examined among 170 Catholic senior high school boys and girls for their cognitive and affective ratings about the concepts of “sex” and “faith and reason.” Girls' scores on the Cloze test dealing with the cognitive dimension of the concepts increased significantly while the boys' scores were less exact and more varied following small group discussion. Factor scores on the evaluative, potency, and activity dimensions of the semantic differential measuring the two concepts supported the hypothesis that the sex of the Catholic student and type of concept influence shifts toward a riskier or divergent attitude following small group discussion.

Effects on anticipated delegate status on level of risk taking in small decision-making groups

The oft-replicated risky-shift phenomenon in decision-making groups was examined under conditions where one or all of the group members expected to serve as a delegate representing and defending their groups decisions in meetings with delegates from other groups. Three separate delegate conditions and a control were employed. In two of the conditions a single delegate was selected — designated by the group in one case and chosen at random in the other. In a third condition, all members expected to serve as delegates. The control condition consisted of the standard group discussion-to-concensus without any delegate manipulation. No mean differences in magnitude of risky shift between conditions were obtained. An examination of the two single-delegate conditions revealed other kinds of differences. Whereas the behavior of the delegate selected randomly appeared to have little effect on the size of the risky shift, this was not the case for the group-designated delegate. Correlational analyses indicated that the latter's influencee and communication input and output were related to risky- shift magnitude.

Are risk takers more persuasive than conservatives in group discussion?

This study investigated whether the phenomenon of shifts toward greater risk taking following discussion of risk-related materials can be attributed to greater general persuasiveness exerted by risk takers than by conservatives. Its procedure was to discover whether risk takers would be judged more persuasive than conservatives following discussion of risk-neutral materials. In the case of female discussion groups risk takers were judged slightly more persuasive than conservatives, but not at all in the case of male groups. Our conclusion was that the risky-shift phenomenon cannot be attributed to greater persuasiveness as a general characteristic of high-risk takers in male groups, and that this factor can play no more than a small role in female groups.

Individual and group risk-taking in a two-choice situation

Individual and group decision making under uncertainty was explored in an attempt to determine whether individual risk preferences change under group conditions. Subjects predicted which of two differentially probable stimulus events would occur, and were paid for correct anticipations in a series of 360 trials. The expected value of the choices was held constant by varying payoff inversely with the frequency of the two events. After 180 trials, individuals either continued alone or were formed into three-man groups. Groups showed consistent and significant shifts in the conservative direction, while individuals remaining alone did not shift. The data were examined in the light of various group-decision models and in the light of other explanations of the risky-shift phenomenon. Changes in individual risk preferences were interpreted as deriving from a change in subjective utilities of outcomes which occurs in the group situation.

Risky-shift phenomenon in small decision-making groups: A test of the information-exchange hypothesis

To determine the relative contribution of group interaction and information exchange to the risky-shift effect, female undergraduates were assigned either to interacting or to listening groups. Tape recordings of discussions of risk dilemmas were derived from the interacting groups. These taped discussions comprised the stimulus material for the listening groups. Thus, information was held fairly constant for interacting-listening pairs. Individual levels of risk taking measured prior to and after group discussion were used to assess the magnitude of the risky-shift effect. Although both group types manifested significant risky shifts, the interacting groups significantly exceeded the listening groups in extent of shift. We concluded that informational processes alone could not fully account for the risky-shift phenomenon.