Abstract
Individual and group decision making under uncertainty was explored in an attempt to determine whether individual risk preferences change under group conditions. Subjects predicted which of two differentially probable stimulus events would occur, and were paid for correct anticipations in a series of 360 trials. The expected value of the choices was held constant by varying payoff inversely with the frequency of the two events. After 180 trials, individuals either continued alone or were formed into three-man groups. Groups showed consistent and significant shifts in the conservative direction, while individuals remaining alone did not shift. The data were examined in the light of various group-decision models and in the light of other explanations of the risky-shift phenomenon. Changes in individual risk preferences were interpreted as deriving from a change in subjective utilities of outcomes which occurs in the group situation.
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