Risky Products Research Articles

Bidding behaviour in experimental auctions under risk and uncertainty

AbstractThis paper explores bidding behaviour under risk and uncertainty using the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism (BDM) and second price auction (SPA). It investigates whether values elicited via the two mechanisms are consistent and whether bidding behaviour can be influenced by differences in the number and type of sources of risk and uncertainty that people face when exposed to the two mechanisms. In our experiment, subjects are exposed to non-monetary lotteries where they bid for a high-quality seafood product, but there is a chance (known or unknown) that they receive a lower quality seafood product instead. Results indicate that bidding behaviour can be influenced by the number and type of sources of risk and uncertainty that subjects face and subjects’ bidding behaviour is only consistent with standard theories of decision making under risk and uncertainty when they bid on a risky product in the SPA. Despite this, BDM and SPA elicit equal values under risk and uncertainty in this study.

Paddy-based Cropping Systems and their Sustainability: A Micro-level Study of Nellore District of Andhra Pradesh, India

A sustainable cropping system is needed to ensure profitable, productive and less risky crop production, particularly when the agricultural sector is experiencing climatic uncertainty and price volatility. Hence, the study aims to identify paddy-based cropping systems and their sustainability in the Nellore district of Andhra Pradesh. The study is based on primary data collected during 2022-23 with the help of a pre-structured schedule. The major cropping systems based on paddy were identified as system Ⅰ (paddy-groundnut), cropping system Ⅱ (paddy-paddy), & cropping system Ⅲ (paddy-cotton). The profitability analysis revealed that the gross returns for cropping systems I, II and III were computed to be Rs. 281916.83, Rs. 259072.90 and Rs. 330072.45. The farmers realized the highest net income, Rs. 169222.62, under cropping system III. The net returns for the cropping systems Ⅰ and Ⅱ were obtained as Rs. 141282.24 and Rs. 127048.48, respectively. The sustainability indices of paddy-groundnut (cropping system I), paddy-paddy (cropping system II) and cropping system III (paddy-cotton) were computed as 42.88%, 50.86% and 60.93%, respectively, and the paddy-cotton cropping system came out as the most profitable and sustainable in the study area. The regression analysis revealed that factors like returns to cost ratio and the cost used for environmentally friendly inputs relative to the overall cost of cultivation were found significant in all three cropping systems.

How to Recognize Risky Pharmaceutical Product?

The growing interest in the good state of health and the effort to maintain it leads to the abuse of this trend by manufacturers of various medical preparations. Consumers should be wary of products, the producers of which do not register them as drugs, emphasize their natural origin regardless of risks, declare the absence of side effects, promise to cure a wide range of diseases, do not present mechanisms of action, rely on case reports of celebrities instead of clinical studies, and on traditional systems of medicine without scientific verification. Products recommended by individuals without relevant expertise are often being sold outside the pharmacies and retail chains. Their application without critical assessment can lead to neglecting the treatment, health complications, or financial losses.

Rapid Market Screening to assess lead concentrations in consumer products across 25 low- and middle-income countries

Lead exposure can have serious consequences for health and development. The neurological and behavioral effects of lead are considered irreversible. Young children are particularly vulnerable to lead poisoning. In 2020, Pure Earth and UNICEF estimated that one in three children had elevated blood lead levels above 5 µg/dL. The sources of lead exposure vary around the world and can range from household products, such as spices or foodware, to environmental pollution from nearby industries. The aim of this study was to analyze common products from markets in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for their lead content to determine whether they are plausible sources of exposure. In 25 LMICs, the research teams systematically collected consumer products (metal foodware, ceramics, cosmetics, paints, toys, spices and other foods). The items were analyzed on site for detectable lead above 2 ppm using an X-ray fluorescence analyzer. For quality control purposes, a subset of the samples was analyzed in the USA using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The lead concentrations of the individual product types were compared with established regulatory thresholds. Out of 5007 analyzed products, threshold values (TV) were surpassed in 51% for metal foodware (TV 100 ppm), 45% for ceramics (TV 100 ppm), and 41% for paints (TV 90 ppm). Sources of exposure in LMICs can be diverse, and consumers in LMICs lack adequate protection from preventable sources of lead exposure. Rapid Market Screening is an innovative, simple, and useful tool to identify risky products that could be sources of lead exposure.

The Market Dynamics of Collective Ignorance and Spiraling Risk

Abstract In some markets, offerings become riskier over time as producers introduce new versions that are made more affordable by increasing their risk. Existing theories suggest consumers adopt riskier versions either because they become more risk tolerant or they trade higher risk for lower price—both of which presume consumers know the risks. We reveal a third explanation: evolving market dynamics that increasingly encourage consumer inattention to risk and produce “collective ignorance.” We identify factors of collective inattention and propose a three-stage model of development of collective ignorance by analyzing the case of risk buildup in the Hungarian mortgage market. Data include archival materials and interviews with borrowers, lenders, and regulators. Initially, producers offer low-risk products, and social, cultural, and institutional factors encourage attention to risk. Consumers attentive to and capable of assessing risk become early adopters. Over time, increasing adoption and changes in market factors divert consumers’ attention from risk, shifting it to price. Under insufficient regulation, risk escalates: producers repeatedly cut price by offering increasingly risky products, while rising collective ignorance leads even risk-averse consumers to adopt them. We offer theoretical contributions to research on the social construction of risk, the attitude–behavior gap, and neoliberal responsibilization.

Cs+ Promoting the Diffusion of K+ and Inhibiting the Generation of Newberyite in Struvite-K Cements: Experiments and Molecular Dynamics Simulation Calculations.

Struvite-K cements, also called magnesium potassium phosphate cements (MKPCs), are applicable for particular applications, especially the immobilization of radioactive Cs+ in the nuclear industry. This work focuses on how Cs+ affects the hydration mechanism of struvite-K cements because newberyite and brucite in the hydration products are deemed to be risky products that result in cracking. Experiments and molecular dynamics simulations showed that Cs+ promoted the diffusion of K+ to the surface of MgO, which greatly facilitates the formation of more K-struvite crystals, inhibiting the formation of newberyite and brucite. A total of 0.02 M Cs+ resulted in a 40.44%, 13.93%, 60.81%, and 32.18% reduction in the amount of newberyite and brucite, and the Cs immobilization rates were 99.07%, 99.84%, 99.87%, and 99.83% when the ratios of Mg/P were 1, 3, 5, and 7, respectively. This provides new evidence of stability for struvite-K cements on radioactive Cs+ immobilization. Surprisingly, another new crystal, [CsPO3·H2O]4, was found to be a dominating Cs-containing phase in Cs-immobilizing struvite-K cements, in addition to Cs-struvite.

The Russian-Ukrainian War as an Impetus to the Destabilization of World Business: Reactions of Stock Markets

The conducted analysis identified Ukraine as a significant element of the modern world economic order. Being a part of the world digital economy even without a developed industrial sector and advanced market institutions, Ukraine has been accepted as an integral part of the world economic space. The war unleashed by Russia significantly disrupted its functioning. Under the influence of war, the market's interests have been turned toward the least risky products and significantly higher diversification. The markets have interpreted the Russian-Ukrainian war as real news that has been immediately displayed by stock markets optimal portfolios. The simultaneously provided analysis revealed the separation of social and corporative visions of world order on some even developed markets. Analysing the behavior of Chinese companies on the Russian and other markets revealed that, in modern conditions, the R&D sector could become a real mirror of potential war influence analysis.

The role of borrower expectations in mortgage choice

This paper analyses the role of interest rate expectations in determining a household’s selection of mortgage product. We use a bespoke survey of 2,003 mortgage holders conducted by the Central Bank of Ireland to investigate the choice between safe fixed-rate and risky adjustable rate products. Our empirical methodology adopts a probit model to estimate the effect of a series of household characteristics, behavioural influences and mortgage criteria on product selection. This research provides novel insights into the determinants of mortgage choice, as our study is the first in the literature to explore expectations utilising a new measurement technique. Our results indicate that while pricing matters, future interest rate expectations are a key motivating factor in the mortgage choice decision. In addition to this, we investigate the accuracy of expectations and find higher levels of education and financial knowledge increase the probability of correct predictions.

Creditor rights, collateral reuse, and credit supply

Securities dealers receive mortgages as collateral for credit lines provided to mortgage companies and reuse the same collateral to borrow money. Exploiting the 2005 BAPCPA rule change, which granted mortgage collateral preferred bankruptcy treatment, I find that strengthening creditor rights increases dealers’ collateral reuse. Increasing collateral reuse creates a money multiplier that increases credit supply. Using a novel dataset linking dealers to the mortgage companies they fund reveals that post-BAPCPA, dealers supply additional credit to mortgage companies by increasing credit lines and relaxing restrictions on collateral securing them. In response, mortgage companies increase origination volume and shift into riskier products.

“Not a box of nuts and bolts”: Distribution channels for specialty drugs

One of the most important trends in the pharmaceutical industry is the rapid growth of specialty drugs. Specialty drugs, mostly bio based, tend to be high risk, high priced, and more regulated than traditional drugs, resulting in unprecedented challenges in distribution. Such challenges lead to the emergence of specialty distributors (SDs), which, compared with traditional wholesalers (WSs), represent a more controlled channel and carry a smaller variety of drugs. Due to the risky nature of specialty drugs, manufacturers must consider the trade‐off between access and control in determining whether to use SDs (partially or exclusively). Using a unique dataset assembled from multiple proprietary and public data sources on the transactions for 419 specialty drugs across 11 manufacturers (including 8 of the top 15 manufacturers), 161 distributors, and 129,911 points of care (POCs) in 2012–2015, we investigate how the competing factors of access and control influence manufacturers’ usage of SDs (vs. WSs), with access indicated by downstream POCs’ required product variety and control indicated by regulations on the network. We find that interestingly, the imposition of the regulations in general on the product is not associated with higher usage of SDs, but the imposition of the regulations with a specific element (restrictive access) is. In addition, downstream POCs’ need for convenient access to the required drug variety is associated with lower SD usage. Our study contributes to the limited supply chain literature on risky products and the limited empirical research on Business‐to‐Business (B2B) distribution decisions, and provides important insights and guidance to manufacturers, downstream POCs, and regulators.

Sociological study about the causes and consequences of milk adulteration

Extraordinary nourishing significance of milk as well as comparative lower price related to other diets containing protein made it a particular portion of dietetics amongst the inhabitants around the globe. Conversely, the amplified demand of milk globally made it disposed to gigantic intensities of deceitful actions. It is a highly risky product for falsified deeds for getting economic gains where culprits can intensify nutrition protection threats and reduce nutritious worth by deliberated contamination along with the deficiency of maintenance, negligence in deprived cleanliness circumstances, no refrigeration conveniences. Current study was directed to expose the causes, harmful consequences and solutions for the prevention of this menace. For this purpose, 60 respondents from supply chain conveniently and 150 respondents from consumer chain systematically. Due to adulteration in milk, it became considerably low nutritious levels which also be lethal for community well-being exposed through current milk adulteration outrages which caused risky issues related to socio-economic conditions in addition to psychological and serious health concerns related to stomach, eye sight, cardiac, renal, and lever failure due to hazardous additives used as adulterants in milk.

Reference‐dependent preferences in flat penalty service‐level contracts

AbstractThis paper investigates a supply chain governed by a flat penalty service‐level contract in which missing the target fill rate can lead to costly operational disruption. We focus on near‐miss bias: (1) the preference for near‐miss events, that is, risky production quantities that reach the target but narrowly avoid disruption; and (2) riskier decision‐making due to such preferences. We propose a reference‐dependent behavioral model that explains the near‐miss bias. The findings of a laboratory experiment show that production quantities are evaluated based on realized profits and are below the optimal model prediction. Contracts associated with lower perceived severity, that is, the ratio of flat penalty to wholesale price, result in lower production quantities than those with higher perceived severity, even though the standard model does not predict any effect. A structural estimation analysis indicates that the behavioral model performs better than the standard model in terms of predictive accuracy and goodness of fit. Our analysis provides insights for managers who design supply chain contracts in settings with considerable risk of disruption due to a shortage of critical parts.

An Indonesian slimming drug with undeclared ingredients causing harm.

This paper reports the presence of undeclared drugs in the herbal slimming supplement Sulami®. The four cases of the adverse drug reactions related to Sulami® were reported to the Dutch Pharmacovigilance Centre (Lareb) or the Dutch Poisons Information Centre (DPIC). The analysis of all four collected samples revealed adulteration with sibutramine and canrenone. Both drugs can cause serious adverse drug reactions. From a legal point of view, it is clear that Sulami® does not meet the legal requirement for safety. As defined in the European General Food Law Regulation, food business operators are responsible for food safety. This also applies to online store owners who sell herbal preparations. Thus, it is clear that it is forbidden to sell Sulami® on the European and Dutch market. Collaboration between involved national authorities makes it possible to identify risky products. This allows the nationally responsible regulators to take targeted action. They can call on users to report sell points what makes it possible to arrest the sellers and confiscate the dangerous products. Beyond the national, also, the European enforcement organizations should take legal measures where possible, to protect public health. The Heads of Food Safety Agencies Working Group on Food Supplements "an Initiative on European level" is a good example of efforts to improve consumer safety.

СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО РОССИИ И БЕЛОРУССИИ В СФЕРЕ ОБОРОТА ИЗДЕЛИЙ ИЗ ДРАГОЦЕННЫХ КАМНЕЙ И МЕТАЛЛОВ

Economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus has deep historical roots. The economy of both countries is mutually integrated in almost all directions of its development and the sphere of turnover of products made of precious stones, precious metals, which is the object of this study, is no exception. The specificity of the analyzed sphere is in the value of the object of turnover for all its participants: products with high artistic value are the reserve of the state, its highly liquid asset; for the consumer, jewelry is a luxury item and accumulation; from the perspective of profit-making, the manufacture of jewelry products is the least risky production investment. Thus, an increase in the turnover of jewelry products, due to the expansion of the sales market, is beneficial to everyone. The need to coordinate the production, trade, and accounting policies of countries that put further cooperation at the forefront of the development strategy is obvious. The purpose of this work is to assess the implementation of joint actions of Russia and Belarus in the sphere of turnover of products made of precious stones and metals. The article presents the current open data of the turnover participants, a comparative analysis of the implementation of the provisions of the cooperation agreement in the countries was carried out, which made it possible to justify the need to improve and adapt to external conditions the existing features of operations in the field under study; the tasks of digitalization of the turnover tracking systems operating in Russia and Belarus and their integration on the DMDK GIS platform are outlined – the Russian state integrated information system in the field of control over the turnover of precious metals, precious stones and products made from them. It is concluded that it is necessary to create equal conditions for manufacturers and consumers of jewelry products in Belarus, Russia and the EAEU countries that have signed an agreement on cooperation in the field under study. The concept of reaching consensus on controversial issues and emerging obstacles to regulating the turnover of jewelry between partner countries on mutually beneficial terms is formulated.

Внедрение технологии цифровых двойников в систему управления профессиональными рисками предприятия

The technology of digital twins has wide possibilities in comparison with the standard work processes, finding an increased application in a wide variety of human activities. The main advantage of this technology is the increase in the efficiency of production processes due to the transition from a large number of full-scale tests, which require significant costs, to mathematical and computer modeling. The article demonstrates the results of using the digital environment to perform a rather time-consuming process of occupational risk assessment. The mathematical model introduced into the digital environment for assessing the components of occupational risk makes it easy to carry out a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the danger and harmfulness of any production process. The method of integral assessment of working conditions was taken as the basis for the mathematical model, the essence of which is to assess the risk of the complex impact of harmfulness and hazards identified in the workplaces. As a result, using appropriate software (for example, Excel), it is possible to upload data on the results of a special assessment of working conditions and expert analysis of scenarios of possible incidents and the consequences of their implementation into the system, and almost immediately receive information about the risk of harmful and hazardous effect, thereby bypassing the process of identifying risky production factors. For objects being designed or reconstructed, the digital environment makes it possible to preliminarily assess the state of working conditions at the workplaces, which in the future may become a justification for the use of more efficient means to reduce occupational risks. Thus, the presented digital model allows to optimize the work of employees of the labor protection service, which will ultimately affect the quality of working conditions and the level of occupational risks of employees.

Ekonomski aspekti voćarske proizvodnje u Srbiji na primeru zasada jabuke

Apple is one of the most important fruits in the world and in Europe. In the Republic of Serbia, it is grown on 27,034 ha of agricultural land and, judging by this criterion, is in second place, right behind plum. The paper analyzes the production of Golden Delicious apple cultivar on a family farm in the region of Šumadija and Western Serbia, on an area of 1 ha, with a 3.2 x 0.8 m planting distance. The apple crop is in full bloom, with all agrotechnical measures necessary for proper cultivation applied in production, including irrigation. The recorded production value is from the yield of 45.0 t/ha of apples. Total variable costs amount to RSD 687,445.00/ha or EUR 5,864.83/ha. Ratio of total costs and income from apple production in 2022 gives a contribution margin of RSD 1,337,555.00/ ha or €11,411.15/ha, i.e. RSD 29.72/kg or €0.25/kg, at apple selling price of 45 din/kg, i.e. 0.38 €/kg. The efficiency of apple production is 2.95. Results point to the conclusion that apple production can be profitable and that it is a moderately risky production line.

Influence of Harvest Periods on Cassava (<i>Manihot esculenta</i> Crantz) Agronomic Traits and Physiological Response to Post-Harvest Physiological Deterioration

Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is the third largest source of calories in tropical countries and the sixth most important food crop in the World. However, the short shelf life of its storage roots after harvest due to a rapid post-harvest physiological deterioration (PPD) makes the roots to be considered as a risky product to market. The objectives of this work were to investigate the influence of two harvest periods on cassava agronomic parameters and their physiological response to PPD. Three cassava cultivars 96/1414, I070593 and LMR were selected for the experiment and harvested at 10 and 12 months after planting (MAP). The response to PPD was assessed during storage at 0, 3, 8 and 15 days after harvest (DAH). Total proteins content, soluble sugars and starch, total polyphenols compounds, polyphenoloxidase and peroxidase activities were recorded during storage. Results showed large variation among the parameters at the two harvest periods across the cultivars. High number of tubers was recorded in all the cultivars at 12 MAP and a significant increase in storage roots length was observed in 96/1414 and LMR from 10 MAP to 12 MAP (25 ± 5.1 to 41.3 ± 5.9 and 22.6 ± 3.3 to 27.9 ± 4.8) respectively. A reduction of about 49% of tubers weight was observed in I070593 from 10 to 12 MAP while an increase of about 36% and 11% were recorded in LMR and 96/1414 respectively. Tubers from I070593 showed less susceptibility to PPD when harvested at 10 MAP compared to those from LMR and 96/1414 where less susceptibility to PPD were recorded at 12 MAP. An increase in soluble sugars content, total proteins content and peroxidase activity subsequently to a decrease in starch content were recorded during storage from 8 to 15 days after harvest especially at 10 MAP in I070593 and at 12 MAP in LMR and 96/1414. High content of total phenolic compounds and less activity of polyphenol oxidase were correlated to PPD susceptibility. This work opens a new insight issue of the consideration of the appropriate harvest time of the cultivars as a tool to better control the onset of postharvest physiological deterioration.

Assessing the importance of risky products in international trade and global value chains.

The COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the world's economy and trade into disarray, putting international reliance in the limelight. This sparked debate on the durability and resilience of global value chains. In this paper, we construct a 'product riskiness indicator' for 4700 globally traded products based on components such as market concentration, clustering tendencies, network centrality of players, or international substitutability to determine which products are vulnerable to trade shocks at the global level - referred to as 'risky' products. In a second step, bilateral risky product imports are matched to multi-country input-output tables, allowing for an examination of the importance of globally supplied risky products by country and industry. Due to the high percentage of dangerous products in high-tech product categories, higher-tech industries are more vulnerable to supply-chain vulnerabilities. Third, we analyse the GDP impact of reshoring using a "partial global extraction method." Assuming that risky product imports from non-EU27 nations are re-shored to EU27 countries, the EU27 GDP might rise by up to 0.5 percent. Non-EU27 countries suffer as a result of such reshoring activity. This implies that ensuring robust or at least resilient supply networks is also in the interest of the supplier countries and sectors.

Trust in institutions and public acceptability of risky energy production: Testing the causal relationships in the context of Groningen earthquakes

Public acceptability of energy production does not only depend on people's opinions of energy projects but also on whether people trust those who are in charge of regulating them. Indeed, research shows that trust in regulating institutions is positively related to public acceptability of energy production, and more generally, to public acceptability hazard-prone activities. Most evidence for this relationship, however, stems from correlational and cross-sectional studies and therefore causal inferences regarding its directionality cannot be made. That is, is not clear whether trust is an antecedent of public acceptability (the causal model of trust) or whether trust is rather a consequence of it (the associationist model of trust). In this study, we aimed to fill this gap by studying longitudinally the association between trust in two relevant regulating institutions associated with energy production in the Netherlands and public acceptability of natural gas extraction. Overall, results provided (partial) support to the causal model of trust –that is, trust in one of studied regulating institutions influenced subsequent acceptability ratings in 2 (out of 5) measurement waves. Further, both trust and public acceptability tended to be stable over time. Results are discussed in relation to the literature on trust in institutions and its effects on the acceptability of hazard-prone activities.

Confidence in nicotine for tobacco harm reduction-Bridging the policy-practice gap.

Decades of research show that constituents other than nicotine are the harmful agents in tobacco products. This knowledge is incorporated into the nicotine regulatory policies of countries leading in tobacco control, such as the UK and New Zealand. Alternative nicotine products, such as nicotine replacement therapy and e-cigarettes, are now endorsed in the UK by a number of healthcare bodies in a tobacco harm reduction approach that encourages tobacco users to completely switch to a less risky nicotine-containing product. The potential role of 'clean' nicotine alternatives to reduce the harms from tobacco is, however, not being translated into practice. Many healthcare practitioners still bundle tobacco, cigarettes, smoking, cancer and nicotine into one, thus preventing them from supporting their patients to make informed choices on safer nicotine alternatives. This misperception among healthcare professionals, in turn, is a hurdle to effective tobacco control policymaking in many low- and middle-income countries and effective cessation support everywhere in the world. Nicotine confidence based on nicotine literacy among the key decision-makers should start with reforming medical curricula and myth-busting in the lay media to include factual statements about nicotine and public health policy discussions on the principles of harm reduction.