Risky Events Research Articles

Влияние рисков цифровизации на обеспечение экономической безопасности региона

The article discusses the impact of digitalization risks on ensuring the economic security of regions. The relevance of the research topic is due to changes in the trends in the deve-lopment of economic relations related to the digitalization of the economy. The article notes that the identification of risks and threats makes it possible to develop risk minimization procedures, draw up tactical and strategic plans focused on the prevention of risks and threats (“Mitigation”), the second stage - providing for measures and procedures if a risky situation has already occurred and it is necessary to eliminate the consequences or minimize losses from the occurrence of a risky event (“Contingency”). Special attention is paid to the classification of types and types of risks of digitalization. Based on the conducted research, the main types of risks are identified: the risks of using foggy and cloud technologies; the risks of fraud and violation of information confidentiality; the risks of technological lag, distributed by subgroups: software and hardware. It is noted that the improvement of digitalization procedures increases the convenience of calculations and the quality of life, allows you to optimize the processes in the activities of both legal entities and individuals, at the same time, has a significant impact on the economic security of legal entities and individuals, due to the high level of risk. In conclusion, examples of minimizing the risks of digitalization are given and tools and mechanisms for minimizing risks are proposed.

Dynamic and quantitative trust modeling and real-time estimation in human-machine co-driving process

The development of automated vehicles (AVs) will remain in the stage of human–machine co-driving for a long time. Trust is considered as an effective foundation of the interaction between the driver and the automated driving system (ADS). Driver’s trust miscalibration, represented by under-trust and over-trust, is considered to be the potential cause of disuse and misuse of ADS, or even serious accidents. The estimation and calibration of trust are crucial to improve the safety of the driving process. This paper mainly consists of the following two aspects. Firstly, a dynamic and quantitative trust estimation model is established. A framework for trust estimation is constructed. Driver’s perceived risk and behavior features were monitored and a Kalman filter was used to dynamically and quantitatively estimate the driver’s trust. We conducted a driver-in-the-loop experiment and generated model parameters through a data-driven approach. The results demonstrated that the model exhibited precision in trust estimation, with the highest accuracy reaching 74.1%. Secondly, a reminder strategy to calibrate the over-trust of the driver is proposed based on the model from the first part. A scenario with four risky events was designed and the ADS would provide voice reminders to the driver when over-trust was detected. The results demonstrated that the reminder strategy proved to be beneficial for safety enhancement and moderate trust maintenance during the driving process. When the driver is over-trusting, the accident rates of the reminder group and the non-reminder group were 60.6% and 13.0%, respectively. Our contribution in this paper can be concluded by four points: (1) A real-time trust estimation model is proposed, which is dynamic and quantitative, considering the evolution pattern of driver’s trust and the perceived risk; (2) Mathematical modeling and machine learning methods are combined; (3) A trust-based reminder strategy that aims to enhance the safety of human–machine co-driving is designed; (4) Driver-in-loop experiment validates the effectiveness in enhancing the safety, maintaining driver’s trust and reducing trust biases in human–machine co-driving.

Managing logistics risks in pharmaceutical supply chain: a 4PL perspective

Supply chain risks and vulnerabilities have been growing recently due to the global, interconnected, and complex networks. The Pharmaceutical Supply Chain (PSC), as a critical national asset, requires increased attention to mitigate the severe consequences of global events. With various risks impacting both the firm’s performance and the lives of patients, effective risk management is paramount for the PSC. This empirical study focuses on the UK-based Fourth-Party Logistics (4PL) provider, which manages pharmaceutical manufacturers’ logistics operations. The 4PL provider’s past experiences with unexpected risky events have influenced its performance. This study aims to explore inherent logistics risks, evaluate them, and recommend mitigation strategies. An integrated approach considering probability, impact and manageability parameters is proposed for risk assessment. In identifying 11 risks from the 4PL perspective, structured interviews are used to gather risk information. The probability of risk occurrence, severity of impact, and manageability are quantified. The delivery delay should be given priority in the follow-up risk management process, while counterfeiting has the least priority. Finally, three resilience strategies named improving flexibility, redundancy, and creating a risk culture are proposed for the 4PL case company. The study offers multiple theoretical and managerial implications based on its findings.

Risky event classification leveraging transfer learning for very limited datasets in optical networks

Monitoring the state of polarization (SOP) is crucial for tracking vibrations or disturbances in the vicinity of optical fibers, such as precursors to fiber cuts. While SOP data are valuable for machine learning (ML) models in identifying vibrations, acquiring a sufficient amount of data presents a significant challenge. To overcome this hurdle, we introduce an innovative transfer learning framework designed for the identification of vibrations (events) when confronted with limited SOP data. Our methodology leverages the pre-trained convolutional neural network MobileNet as a feature extractor, incorporating the encoding of time series SOP measurements into images for MobileNet input. We explore different time series encoding techniques, including the Gramian Angular Difference Field (GADF) and the Gramian Angular Summation Field (GASF). Different architectures for building our transfer learning framework based on MobileNet are investigated. Validation of our proposed approaches is conducted using experimental data that simulates movements indicative of fiber break precursors. The experimental results clearly demonstrate the superior performance of our approaches compared to other ML algorithms, especially in scenarios with limited data. Furthermore, our framework surpasses pre-trained CNN models in terms of predictive power, affirming its effectiveness in enhancing the accuracy of vibration identification in the presence of constrained SOP data.

Information and analytical aspects of financial investment management of a medical organization

For Russian companies, solving problems related to the management of financial assets and instruments has become much more complicated under the influence of global changes over the past few years related to external negative political and financial and economic processes. The increase in the scale of activities of commercial medical organizations in recent years, one of the main reasons for which are the negative effects of the recent pandemic on public health, is accompanied by an increase in the volume of services provided, income and income of additional funds that need to be invested in various assets, one of which is financial investments. Restrictions on access to Western financial trading platforms to achieve the necessary efficiency of the organization’s financial portfolio, difficulties in the operation of the system of external financial settlements and payment obligations, and many other risky events led to the need to search for alternative transactions with financial resources of companies, new directions and forms of investments of available funds. The issues discussed in the article are devoted to the creation of an optimal policy for managing investments in financial assets of an organization, which should be based on high-quality information, analytical and methodological support.

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on connectivity, operational efficiency, and resilience of major container ports in Southeast Asia

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has had significant impacts on the connectivity and performance of container ports in Southeast Asia. The application of social network analysis (SNA) in conjunction with key indicators, such as container throughput, total capacity of ships, number of ship calls, and berth duration, provides a comprehensive understanding of the development of the regional port system. While major ports in the region, namely Singapore, Port Kelang, Manila, and Laem Chabang, have exhibited signs of recovery owing to the expeditious and timely implementation of targeted policies to mitigate the adverse effects of the pandemic, smaller ports in the region, such as Bangkok, Penang, Tanjung Priok, and Tanjung Perak, are grappling with enduring repercussions and encountering challenges in resilience. These challenges stem from inadequate infrastructure, limited accommodation capacity, low loading/unloading productivity, and other significant risk events associated with the pandemic, all of which have weakened their competitiveness. In contrast, ports in Vietnam, including Cai Mep, Hai Phong, and Ho Chi Minh, as well as Malaysia's Tanjung Pelepas, have demonstrated that they are less impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. This can be attributed to the sustained growth of their respective economies and the continued surge in domestic production to meet the unabated demand for exports. Based on these findings, several policy recommendations can be suggested for port authorities to effectively manage and mitigate the impact of risky events, such as pandemics, in the future while also enhancing the competitiveness of ports.

Риск-ориентированная онтологическая модель поддержки принятия управленческих решений в грузовом порту на основе многоуровневого целеполагания

In today's unstable market environment, transport logistics enterprises face the task of predicting possible risk situations in order to avoid them, as well as developing tools that allow them to form management decisions, evaluate the effectiveness of each of them and choose the most appropriate one, taking into account specific tasks and various influencing factors. Situations of failure to achieve the goals of a cargo port, as well as cases of failure by indicators to assess these goals of normative values, are considered as risks. The goals and indicators are outlined and described in the previously built Balanced Scorecard (MTSP). A set of links between goals and indicators of their assessment with risks at various levels of management is presented in the form of a developed multi-level hybrid logical-probabilistic (LV) risk model of a cargo port, as well as in detailed scenario models of this LV model. The integrated use of SSP and LV modeling technologies allowed us to build a general concept of multi-level goal setting, the main advantage of which lies in the detailed elaboration of the company's goals subordinate to the main strategic one, which allows, if necessary, to influence operational events and obtain a positive result in the longer term, in tactical and strategic plans. The ontological model contains all the information about the interaction of elements that affect the occurrence of risky events, and allows you to select options for getting out of a risky situation in accordance with various specified conditions. The results of queries to the risk-oriented ontological model are variants of management decisions aimed at reducing risks in the cargo port.

Analysis of Identified risks in the release of over-the-counter medicines to Teenagers

Despite the absence of prohibiting legal norms in Russia, pharmaceutical workers often refuse to sell over-the-counter medicines to teenagers, guided by the unspoken rules of the pharmacy or the internal moral and ethical code. The purpose of this study was to identify and assess the main types of risks faced by pharmaceutical workers when dispensing medicines to teenagers. The assessment and identification of risks were carried out using the Delphi methods and a questionnaire in which 186 respondents took part (the representativeness of the sample was calculated using the statistical method). The probability of occurrence of risks and the degree of criticality of the consequences of the risk was assessed. The experts stated that the most likely event would be a teenager buying the wrong medicine (a medicine other than the one that the teenager or the persons who asked them to buy it were planning to obtain), with a different trade name, dosage, or formulation, followed by a possible conflict with the child's representatives with a request to return or exchange the medicine. Besides, highly probable events include the use of information obtained from unverified sources, including peer advice and information obtained from social networks, by the teenager. The experts named the purchase of medicines by teenagers for self-poisoning the most critical risk factor. The experts considered the risk of using psychoactive substances an event with a high degree of consequences. The experts considered the improper use of medicines by teenagers to be the least risky event. The risks were ranked using a risk matrix by the following categories: negligible, acceptable, moderate, significant, and unacceptable.

Characterization of landslide and measurement of ground vibration period in the Salado-Paccha sector using GNSS equipment and refraction seismic testing

A landslide is a soils movement that depending on its level can be a very risky event, causing from material losses to human lives in some occasions. It can occur naturally or by anthropogenic means, the main causes are usually high intensity rainfall, soils with poor geomechanical characteristics, considerable seismic movements, erosion, lack of vegetation cover, among others. Paccha is a parish where there are several active landslides that put its inhabitants and their material goods at risk. As a result, this research analyzes one of them with UTM17s, 728845,38 E 9679536,46 N coordinates, located in the El Salado sector, for its study it is intended to characterize it, measuring its displacement and velocity through a monitoring of 36 days in 3 data collection campaigns with GNSS equipment using the RTK method, in addition a seismic refraction test is used to measure the period of vibration of the soil at the site. The results obtained indicate that the soil in the sector is clay and silt of high plasticity, the slip is extremely slow, semi-deep, with lateral propagation and rotational geometry. The displacement between points is 4,14 cm while the velocity is 0,43 m/year, finally the vibration period corresponds to a value of 0,13s and the shear wave velocity Vs is 178,85, which is categorized as a type E soil.

Effect of in-hospital training on medical errors made by teams during neonatal resuscitation.

Neonatal resuscitation is one of the most critical and risky events that requires a high level of individual skill and team performance. To evaluate the effect of training of resuscitation teams on the frequency and type of medical errors (ME) that result from neonatal resuscitation. A prospective observational study was performed using a checklist to detect ME related to neonatal resuscitation. The rate of ME was 24.82%. There was a significant reduction in the percentage of errors from 17.28% in pre- pre-training phase to 7.54% in post post-training phase. Near miss MEs (98.77%) were significantly higher than adverse events. The active errors were significantly higher than latent errors, P <0.001, and decreased from 39.19% during pre-training to 19.64% in the post-training phase. The commission ME s were significantly higher than the omission, P <0.001. The latent errors percentage was 41.17% of the total errors and were not significantly reduced after training. Training sessions reduced ME that occurred during resuscitation, however careful distinguishing and recognizing the type of MEs is important to plan for further reduction of errors. Special attention to latent errors is imperative as it needs a specific approach rather than just training.

СПЕЦИФИКА ПОСЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬНОСТИ И ЗНАЧИМОСТИ ОПРЕДЕЛЕНИЯ ПРИРОДЫ РИСКА В ПРОЦЕССЕ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ РАЗНОХАРАКТЕРНЫМИ РИСКОВЫМИ СОБЫТИЯМИ

The article examines the importance of the impact of timely and effective identification of potential risk situations that are possible both in the operation and in the development of project investment and innovation activities of the enterprise. An adapted definition of the risk management process is presented. The features of the specification of the type, the nature of the effect, the descriptive parameters of various risk groups are characterized, and relevant examples are given. The ambiguous nature of the occurrence of a risky event is highlighted. The implementation of a parametric ruler for net risks is justified. Conclusions are formulated on the expediency of using the risk management mechanism in the business sector.

Risk Management Promotion and Bulgarian Farmers' Participation in the Insurance Market

Agriculture is a particularly risky business. Along with the inherently high levels of production risk, the long- term changing climate contributes to the frequency of risky events in the sector - in recent years, weather events have become more extreme, and the frequency of damage is increasing. All this raises the question of the strategies used to manage production risk in agriculture. This paper analyses the participation of Bulgarian farmers in the insurance market and the impact of policy techniques to promote this risk mitigation strategy. The share of insured holdings in the total number is evaluated by comparing on the one hand with other member states of the European Union. On the other hand, a comparison is made between different types of farms in the country. On the basis of accepted criteria for assessing the degree of realization of the objectives of the public instruments for promoting insurance, the conclusion is made that the support has an insignificant effect on agricultural holdings in the country.

Differed Risk Perception in Manual and Automated Driving: An Empirical Study of Varied Conditions

The interface of L3 automated driving systems needs to take both automated and manual driving into consideration. This calls for a comprehension of drivers’ differed risk perception under manual and automated driving conditions, thus supporting description of contextual information and appropriate risk warnings. Existing studies have reported drivers’ impaired ability during automated driving, however, a quantified measurement is still lacking. This study tried to measure the difference in drivers’ ability to perceive risks during automated and manual driving. Specifically, a simulated driving experiment in car-following scenarios was conducted to collect drivers’ perceived risk under multiple manual and automated driving conditions, including varied motion directions, speed, and distance among vehicles. Then, the influences of driving mode, motion directions, speed, and distance on drivers’ risk perceptions were described using a linear mixed model. The result demonstrated a complicated interaction effect. Automated driving impaired drivers’ risk perception, and this effect was less severe in highly risky events. In both manual and automated driving, drivers were less sensitive to risk only when risky events happened backwards. These results indicated drivers’ varied ability under multiple conditions, and supported warning design and interface refinement under automated and manual driving conditions.

Training Network in the Literature from 2020 to 2023

In administrative-economic sciences, factor analysis models are essential for their explanatory capacity of institutional responses to a risk event. The objective of this document was to contrast a model that explains the emergence of corporate governance dimensions in the face of the pandemic. An exploratory study was carried out based on a systematic review of the literature from 2020 to 2023, considering the search by keywords in Google Scholar and Microsoft academic, as well as the experts from a public university in the center of Mexico. The results show that corporate identity explains the university’s response to the pandemic. In relation to the theory of corporate governance which explains the emergence of identity, reputation, and image in the face of a risky event, we have established the relationship between the three factors. The established three-dimensional model suggests the prevalence of identity as a central factor of corporate governance in the face of COVID-19.

Pregnancy by Oocyte Donation: Reviewing Fetal-Maternal Risks and Complications.

Oocyte donation (OD) has greatly improved over the last three decades, becoming a preferred practice of assisted reproductive technology (ART) for infertile women wishing for motherhood. Through OD, indeed, it has become possible to overcome the physiological limitation due to the ovarian reserve (OR) exhaustion as well as the poor gamete reliability which parallels the increasing age of women. However, despite the great scientific contribution related to the success of OD in the field of infertility, this practice seems to be associated with a higher rate of major risky events during pregnancy as recurrent miscarriage, infections and placental diseases including gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia and post-partum hemorrhage, as well as several maternal-fetal complications due to gametes manipulation and immune system interaction. Here, we will revisit this questioned topic since a number of studies in the medical literature focus on the successful aspects of the OD procedure in terms of pregnancy rate without, however, neglecting the risks and complications potentially linked to external manipulation or heterologous implantation.

Corporate reputation is a double-edged sword for companies

Corporate reputation is a double-edged sword for companies. While a good corporate reputation has benefits, a good corporate reputation can also bring disadvantages. A good corporate reputation can lead managers to overestimate the level of corporate risk-taking and can hide internal corporate defects. In addition, corporate reputation may exacerbate the impact of negative events: a good corporate reputation buffers the impact of risky events in a conventional scenario, but in a crisis scenario, a good corporate reputation increases the impact of negative events, while an average corporate reputation reduces the impact of negative events. The purpose of this paper is to explore the negative effects of corporate reputation on firms and the means to prevent them.

Risk diffusing operators and who uses them to help manage negative consequences of sexual decision making

Risk Diffusing Operators (RDOs) are precautions before, or repairs after, attempting a risky event in order to help alter the costs of potential negative outcomes. This study used a repeated “choose your own adventure” paradigm to investigate how individuals use RDOs when making decisions about sexual behavior within the context of a relationship storyline; choosing whether or not to engage in sex and whether to employ RDOs to prevent/mitigate possible negative consequences. Sociosexual attitudes and life history strategy were most associated with decisions and RDO use, whereas participant sex, sociosexual desires and behaviors, and mate value were much less predictive. Domain-specific risk-taking (for fertility and mating) also showed promise as predictors, rather than general risk-taking propensity. These results suggest both a powerful methodology and key variables in relationship decision making research. Research on RDO use more broadly can also benefit from incorporating key individual differences as factors.

Risk Prioritizing Method at the Stage of Qualitative Risk Analysis in the Process of Project Implementation

Current trends in project management include risk management in the process of project implementation. After identifying the risks of the project, the task arises to identify the most dangerous risks for the project out of all numerous risks, in order to subsequently take planned actions to avoid them or reduce their impact. This objective – the task of prioritizing (ranking) risks – is reached at the stage of qualitative risk analysis. As a rule, the danger (importance) of risks is determined by the risk magnitude, which depends on the occurrence probability of a risky event and the impact of risk on the main target parameters of the project. However, due to the peculiarities of the methods of determining the amount of risk at the stage of qualitative analysis, the problems of prioritizing several risks having an equal amount of risk often arise. Moreover, there are no rules or recommendations on how to practically act in such cases and prioritization is carried out with a high degree of subjectivity. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to propose a new risk prioritization method that project teams could practically use at the stage of qualitative risk analysis in these cases. This improvement in qualitative risk analysis methods will expand the ability of project participants to manage risks, reduce subjectivity in decision-making and, accordingly, improve the quality of project implementation. To do this a risk prioritization method based on the use of the analytical hierarchy procedure proposed by T. Saaty is suggested. This method consists in decomposition of the problem to be solved – obtaining hierarchies, and synthesis based on either quantitative estimates or relative judgments. Additional parameters (criteria) are considered for implementation of this method that characterize the compared risks, as well as the value coefficients of these criteria in the overall assessment. Based on the estimates obtained for each criterion and each risk, an overall score is calculated taking into account certain weighting factors of the criteria for each risk. As a result, according to the estimates obtained, risks are prioritized. The use of such a procedure enables reaching a reasonable decision, obtained not by means of simple conclusions, but on the basis of comparative assessments of each risk. This, accordingly, reduces subjectivity of risk prioritization. The proposed method is described in detail in the article and can be used in real projects.

IMPROVEMENT OF RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS OF TOURISM ENTERPRISES

The article analyzes the existing risk management systems of tourism enterprises. The need to identify risks and assess the riskiness of situations has been revealed, which in turn will help to make effective management decisions in a timely manner. The main sources of the origin of risks, their role, as well as the factors affecting risk management in the tourism industry are determined. Approaches to defining the concept of risk management at tourist enterprises are analyzed, as well as a set of methods, techniques and measures that allow to predict to a certain extent the occurrence of risky events and take measures to eliminate or reduce the negative consequences of the occurrence of such events. An efficient and effective system of risk management of the activities of tourist enterprises was built on the basis of the conducted research due to a balanced combination of identification, countermeasures and prevention of the occurrence of risks in the future, due to the use of intellectual capital of the management staff of the tourist enterprise. tourism enterprise, ways to minimize the consequences of future risk events, a multi-level concept of risk management based on the implementation of integrated risk management systems at the enterprise. It has been proven that an important stage of the implementation of the risk management system of tourism enterprises is the assessment of the risk at the time of implementation and forecasting its value for future periods in accordance with the given criteria of importance. This will make it possible to assess the trend towards a general reduction of the risk of the enterprise's tourism activity in the long term. It was determined that the implementation of an effective system of activity risk management will allow simultaneous analysis of a large number of individual risks and the degree of their influence on the development of the risk situation. It was concluded that the risk management system takes into account the specific features of the industry and can serve to increase the stability of organizations, primarily financial.

Service Provider and “No Accident”: A Study of Teachers’ Discipline Risk from the Perspective of Risk Society

Teachers face a high degree of risk when disciplining students in contemporary China. Under the guidance of risk society theory, based on a qualitative study of teachers at a county town high school in Southwest China, this paper finds that, in the context of shifting responsibility for education from family to school and inequal risk distribution system in school, teachers become a primary risk taker. The culture of the teacher as a service provider with unlimited responsibilities and the institution of “No Accident” in daily management supported by schools and local government is constructing the sense of risk in teachers. The consequences of risky events are unbearable for teachers in most cases, so they have to adopt limited discipline strategies with a focus on risk avoidance. Reconceptualizing cooperative family–school relations and constructing a reasonable risk allocation mechanism in school would be the keys to eliminating teachers’ conception of discipline risk.