Риск-ориентированная онтологическая модель поддержки принятия управленческих решений в грузовом порту на основе многоуровневого целеполагания

Abstract

In today's unstable market environment, transport logistics enterprises face the task of predicting possible risk situations in order to avoid them, as well as developing tools that allow them to form management decisions, evaluate the effectiveness of each of them and choose the most appropriate one, taking into account specific tasks and various influencing factors. Situations of failure to achieve the goals of a cargo port, as well as cases of failure by indicators to assess these goals of normative values, are considered as risks. The goals and indicators are outlined and described in the previously built Balanced Scorecard (MTSP). A set of links between goals and indicators of their assessment with risks at various levels of management is presented in the form of a developed multi-level hybrid logical-probabilistic (LV) risk model of a cargo port, as well as in detailed scenario models of this LV model. The integrated use of SSP and LV modeling technologies allowed us to build a general concept of multi-level goal setting, the main advantage of which lies in the detailed elaboration of the company's goals subordinate to the main strategic one, which allows, if necessary, to influence operational events and obtain a positive result in the longer term, in tactical and strategic plans. The ontological model contains all the information about the interaction of elements that affect the occurrence of risky events, and allows you to select options for getting out of a risky situation in accordance with various specified conditions. The results of queries to the risk-oriented ontological model are variants of management decisions aimed at reducing risks in the cargo port.