Multi-level Management of Organizational Systems on the Basis of Risk Cascading, Logical-Probabilistic Modeling and Simulation

Abstract

AbstractA conceptual solution allows for multi-level risk management of an organizational system (for example, a cargo port) is presented. A step-by-step mechanism for the integrated use of risk cascading and Logical-Probabilistic modeling is proposed for a detailed and multifaceted description of cause-and-effect relationships, as well as simulation modeling as a tool for analyzing, assessing, and predicting the onset of risk situations. The described mechanism is displayed in the form of a structural diagram of multilevel risk management. The method for cascading risks at the strategic, tactical, and operational levels of management is described in detail. Each level considers as a risk situation failure to achieve goals, failure to achieve target performance assessment indicators of standard values, and failure to achieve detailed targets for assessing target implementation of standard values, respectively. A cascade logic-probabilistic model of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port is presented, detailing the scenarios of the first level of goal-setting and including all three levels of management. The logical and probabilistic models of various levels of management are formulated and described, the identified basic regularities are explained. The mechanism for fixing the onset of risk situations at the operational level using cascading and simulation technologies, identifying cause-and-effect relationships using logical-probabilistic modeling, as well as formulating recommendations to prevent the onset of risk situations in future periods is described in detail, i.e. at the tactical and operational levels of management.KeywordsRisk cascadingLogical-probabilistic modelingSimulation modelingMultilevel management