Risky Decisions Research Articles

The Ending Effect in the Domain of Gambling: The Effect of Gain-Loss Status on Economic Decision-Making.

Previous studies have shown that people prefer risk-taking at the end of gambles, a phenomenon called the ending effect. By using the Guess Gambling Game, we investigated the impact of gain-loss status on the ending effect (Experiment 1) and whether and how this effect may be affected by time reference (Experiment 2) and gender (Experiment 1&2). In Experiment 1, we observed the ending effect only in the gain group. Furthermore, gender differences exist in the loss group behavior, females were more risk-averse than males, and males tend to investment more initially and then reduce their investment in a U-shaped pattern (Experiment 1&2). Next, in Experiment 2, the findings indicated that participants in the gain group made riskier decisions and were willing to allocate more money for additional decision opportunities, irrespective of the time conditions. Additionally, under time-limited condition, participants tended to make more decisions in the final round, aiming to maximize their choices times within the limited time. These results contribute to a better understanding of the boundary conditions surrounding the ending effect in risky decision-making and may offer a scientific basis for mitigating and intervening in irrational decision-making.

Does cognitive control mediate the relationship between peer presence and adolescent risk-taking? An ERP study.

Peer presence influences risk-taking behavior, particularly in adolescence. Based on the dual system model, this event-related potential study examined whether and how the presence of a peer displayed a preference for risky behavior would increase adolescents' risk-taking by disrupting their cognitive control processes in either emotional or non-emotional contexts. A sample of 106 adolescents (17-19 years of age) completed two Stoop tasks and a Balloon Analog Risk Task under three peer presence conditions. Results revealed that compared to other conditions, the presence of a risk-averse peer caused adolescents to make safer decisions through improving their conflict monitoring (more negative N200-diff), whereas a risk-preference peer's presence led adolescents to more risky decisions through disrupting their conflict resolution (more positive N450-diff) but they were only observed on the Emotional Stroop task. These findings suggest that different peer presence contexts could increase or decrease adolescents' risk-taking behaviors by influencing their cognitive control under an emotional context rather than in a non-emotional context.

Motivating Corporate Social Responsibility Investment and Social Impact through Relative Performance Information

ABSTRACT Firms often struggle to motivate managers’ CSR performance, and little attention has been paid to how performance evaluation can assist in this effort. We address this gap by examining the effects of relative performance information (RPI) on risky CSR investment decisions. Compared to when no RPI is provided, we find that providing RPI based on the size or impact rate of CSR investments improves performance on the ranked dimension, although effects are weaker in more risk-averse managers. We also find that providing both types of RPI separately may lead to similar performance as providing just one type, and that RPI based on a single composite measure that combines performance dimensions leads to the greatest performance along each dimension. Our study contributes to research and practice by identifying how RPI can motivate larger, more impactful CSR investments and by highlighting the role that managers’ risk preferences can play in these decisions. Data Availability: Data are available upon request.

A multinational analysis of how emotions relate to economic decisions regarding time or risk.

Emotions have been theorized to be important drivers of economic choices, such as intertemporal or risky decisions. Our systematic review and meta-analysis of the previous literature (378 results and 50,972 participants) indicates that the empirical basis for these claims is mixed and the cross-cultural generalizability of these claims has yet to be systematically tested. We analysed a dataset with representative samples from 74 countries (n = 77,242), providing a multinational test of theoretical claims that individuals' ongoing emotional states predict their economic preferences regarding time or risk. Overall, more positive self-reported emotions generally predicted a willingness to wait for delayed rewards or to take favourable risks, in line with some existing theories. Contrary to the assumption of a universal relationship between emotions and decision-making, we show that these relationships vary substantially and systematically across countries. Emotions were stronger predictors of economic decisions in more economically developed and individualistic countries.

Combined Effects of Social Exclusion and Social Rank Feedback on Risky Decision-Making Across Adolescence.

Adolescents' need to belong and concerns about social status are thought to increase risk-taking, however, not much is known about how feedback about social rank and the effects of social exclusion moderate risky decision-making. To this end, the present study examined how social rank feedback moderates the effects of social exclusion on risky decisions during adolescence. The experimental study included a total of 122 participants (11-19 years; 44% female). Participants were randomly assigned to receive either individual or social rank feedback in the Columbia Card Task after social inclusion and exclusion via the Cyberball paradigm. Contrary to expectations, social exclusion led to more cautious decision-making. Mid-adolescents were most influenced by the combination of social exclusion and social rank feedback, while late adolescents became more cautious with individual feedback. These findings suggest that peer influences also have adaptive effects, increasing sensitivity to risk information, with developmental differences in the role of social rank.

Inhibitory Control Training Improves Cold but Not Warm Cognition in Typically Developing Preschoolers.

Inhibitory control, as a fundamental executive function, has been found to be associated with a range of cognitive processes. In this study, our objective was to enhance inhibitory control through a targeted training program and assess its impact on attention, executive function, delay discounting and risky decision making. Thirty-two typically-developing children (age mean 6.89 ± 0.32years) were recruited in a random clinical trial design in two equal intervention and active control groups. Go/No-Go, Flanker, continuous performance, delay discounting, and balloon analogue risk tasks were used for assessment in three baseline, post- intervention, and 3-months follow-up sessions. The intervention group received the program for attentive rehabilitation of inhibition and selective attention (PARISA) and the active control group participated in a story telling class, both in 12 sessions. The results of the study indicate significant improvements in sustained attention, interference control, and prepotent inhibition among participants in the intervention group. However, there were no significant changes observed in delay discounting and risky decision making. These findings suggest that the inhibitory control training primarily enhances aspects of cold cognition and attentional processes. However, the observed improvements did not extend to reward processing or warm cognition.

Computer Aided Intracranial Aneurysm Treatment Based on 2D/3D Mapping, Virtual Deployment and Online Distal Marker Detection.

To introduce a computational tool for peri-interventional intracranial aneurysm treatment guidance that maps preoperative planning information from simulation onto real-time X-Ray imaging. Preoperatively, multiple flow diverter (FD) devices are simulated based on the 3D mesh of the vessel to treat, to choose the optimal size and location. In the peri-operative stage, this 3D information is aligned and mapped to the continuous 2D-X-Ray scan feed from the operating room. The current flow diverter position in the 3D model is estimated by automatically detecting the distal FD marker locations and mapping them to the treated vessel. This allows to visually assess the possible outcome of releasing the device at the current position, and compare it with the one chosen pre-operatively. The full pipeline was validated using retrospectively collected biplane images from four different patients (5 3D-DSA datasets in total). The distal FD marker detector obtained an average F1-score of 0.67 ( ) in 412 2D-X-Ray scans. After aligning 3D-DSA + 2D-X-Ray datasets, the average difference between simulated and deployed positions was 0.832 mm ( mm). Finally, we qualitatively show that the proposed approach is able to display the current location of the FD compared to their pre-operatively planned position. The proposed method allows to support the FD deployment procedure by merging and presenting preoperative simulation information to the interventionists, aiding them to make more accurate and less risky decisions.

Chronic pain in breast cancer survivors is linked with an impairment on emotion-based decisions and fatalistic time orientation

AbstractAfter breast cancer diagnosis, individuals have to cope with various psychological, social, and physical consequences. One such consequence is chronic pain, which can persist even after the completion of active treatments and detrimentally impact quality of life. The published literature highlights the impact of chronic pain on cognitive functions and on decision-making processes. However, little is known about the imbalance in decision-making among cancer survivors suffering from chronic pain. This study aims to explore the cognitive impairment associated with risky decision-making in breast cancer survivors experiencing chronic pain, using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Sixty women voluntarily participated in this prospective, cross-sectional study. Among them, twenty had a history of breast cancer and exhibited a significant level of chronic pain, twenty had previously received a cancer diagnosis but did not experience chronic pain, and twenty had not been diagnosed with cancer. The results revealed that women with chronic pain tend to make significantly more disadvantageous choices in the IGT compared to the other groups. Moreover, participants with chronic pain tend to believe that circumstances will change regardless of their efforts to achieve something. This way of thinking may contribute to reinforcing the observed imbalance in decision-making. Our hypothesis suggests that chronic pain may trigger a “Cascade Effect”, exerting multiple influences on decision-making and behaviors. The cognitive overload provoked by chronic pain in breast cancer survivors may not only affect individual cognitive functions, but also have a “Cascade Effect” on other psychological dimensions.

Neural mechanisms underlying competition-induced optimal decisions in individuals with high entrepreneurial intention

In a rapidly changing and uncertain business environment, individuals with high entrepreneurial intention (HEI) inevitably need to compete or cooperate with others to maximize their gains. However, the effects of competition and cooperation on the risky decision-making and neural mechanisms of individuals with HEI are not clear. By combining the modified Devil Task and electroencephalogram (EEG) technology, the current study showed that a competition context is more likely to motivate optimal decisions and enhance the total decision gains for individuals with HEI than a cooperation context. A positive relationship between the frequency of optimal decisions and the total gains of decision-making for individuals with HEI was also found, and this relationship was mediated by the degree of entrepreneurial intention. The EEG results showed that individuals with HEI made decisions in the competition context with greater P2 amplitude of frontal regions than in the cooperation context, and source localization analyses revealed that this difference in brain activity was manifested in the medial prefrontal cortex. Finally, the results revealed a positive relationship between the P2 amplitude and the degree of entrepreneurial intention of individuals with HEI. Overall, the study suggests that competition is an effective way to motivate individuals with HEI to make optimal decisions and, thus, maximize their profits, providing new perspectives on ways to promote successful entrepreneurship.

Extreme weight conditions impact on the relationship between risky decision-making and interoception

Anorexia nervosa (AN) and obesity (OB) lie on the two ends of the broad spectrum of extreme weight conditions (EWC). Both disorders entail the constant risk to one's body integrity. Importantly, risk-taking is supported by internal signals, the perception of which is typically distorted in EWC. In this study, we sought to characterize in EWC: (i) risky decision-making by contrasting situations in which people process bodies or neutral objects and (ii) the relationship between interoceptive ability and risky decision-making. In a between-subject design, participants with AN restricting type, participants with class 2 OB, and two groups of matched healthy controls (HC) (total N = 160) were administered either the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) or a modified version of it by using a body-related stimulus as a cue in the place of the balloon. Moreover, we collected a measure of interoceptive sensibility and a measure of interoceptive accuracy. Results showed that, when analysing the global population as a continuum based on the BMI, the risk propensity decreased as a function of increased BMI, only for the task involving a body-related stimulus. Moreover, while HC risk propensity toward a body-related stimulus correlated with interoceptive sensibility, such correlation was absent in participants with AN. Individuals with OB, on the opposite pole, showed mixed interaction between interoception and risky decision-making in both tasks. These findings add one more tile to understanding these complex pathologies in the EWC spectrum, opening up future differential rehabilitation scenarios.

Conversational Agent Dynamics with Minority Opinion and Cognitive Conflict in Small‐Group Decision‐Making

AbstractThis study investigated the impact of group discussions with text‐based conversational agents on risk‐taking decision‐making, which has been under‐researched. We also focused on the influence of opinion patterns presented by the agents during discussions and attitudes toward these agents. Through an online experiment, 430 participants read a decision‐seeking scenario and expressed the degree of risk they were willing to take. After viewing the text‐based opinions of six agents and having a discussion with the agents, participants expressed the degree of risk they were willing to take for the same scenario. The result showed that participants' risk‐taking decisions shifted toward the agents' group opinions, regardless of whether the agents' opinions tended to be risky or cautious. Additionally, when the agents' group opinions were more risk‐biased and included a minority opinion, a significant association existed between the degree of the participants' shift to a riskier decision and their positive attitudes toward the agents. The agents' group opinions guided participants toward both risky and cautious decisions, and participants' attitudes toward the agents were associated with their decision‐making, albeit to a limited extent.

Hazard prediction and risky decision-making by drivers affected by non-hemineglect strokes

The stroke survivor’s independence is severely limited if they are prevented from driving, and regaining this ability could be vital to their recovery. Our pioneering study analysed hazard prediction and risky decision-making among drivers who had suffered non-hemineglect strokes. Two groups of experienced drivers were recruited with one group comprising 37 healthy drivers (M = 54.5 years old, SD = 6.59) and the other consisting of 37 drivers who had had non-hemineglect strokes (M = 55.1 years old, SD = 13.7). In terms of lesion location, 59 % (n = 22) had suffered a left-hemisphere injury, 35 % (n = 13) a right-hemisphere injury, and 5 % (n = 2) a bilateral injury. Hemineglect patients were excluded. Participants were shown naturalistic driving video clips which had been recorded from the driver’s point of view. These were filmed both in the participants’ familiar home country (Spain) and also in an unfamiliar country (England). The hazard prediction test showed a number of hazardous situations which were caused by another road user (e.g. an oncoming car invading the lane). Each video clip ended as the hazard began to unfold, and participants had to choose the correct response to identify the hazard, where it occurred, and the likely outcome in that particular traffic situation (situation awareness). In the risky decision-making test, participants were shown video clips whereby the hazards were possibly caused by risky driving behaviour (e.g. driving through a junction with an amber traffic light). The participants were also shown video clips which set up the potential for risky behaviour and they were asked how likely they were to proceed with that risky manoeuvre (e.g. to overtake a cyclist or drive through a junction with an amber traffic light) on a 6-point Likert scale. In the hazard prediction test, a statistically significant group effect was found, with healthy drivers attaining greater accuracy compared to drivers who had suffered a stroke. More specifically, drivers with left-sided strokes had lower hazard prediction accuracy (M = 59.1 %, SD = 16.7) than drivers with right-sided strokes (M = 64.6 %, SD = 11.8) and healthy drivers, who had the highest accuracy percentage (M = 68.6 %, SD = 13.1). Moreover, a significant effect was found regarding familiarity, and driver accuracy in the hazard perception test was found to be greater in the video clips filmed in Spain than those filmed in England. However, the interaction between these factors was not significant. Regarding the risky decision-making test, the only statistically significant effect was with the familiarity of the video clips, whereby drivers displayed a greater disposition to assume risks in the English video clips (unfamiliar driving environment) than in the Spanish clips. Hazard prediction training would be particularly helpful for drivers who had suffered left-hemisphere strokes since it is more difficult for such drivers to process details.

Nothing to lose? Neural correlates of decision, anticipation, and feedback in the balloon analog risk task.

Understanding the subprocesses of risky decision making is a prerequisite for understanding (dys-)functional decisions. For the present fMRI study, we designed a novel variant of the balloon-analog-risk task (BART) that measures three phases: decision making, reward anticipation, and feedback processing. Twenty-nine healthy young adults completed the BART. We analyzed neural activity and functional connectivity. Parametric modulation allowed assessing changes in brain functioning depending on the riskiness of the decision. Our results confirm involvement of nucleus accumbens, insula, anterior cingulate cortex, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex in all subprocesses of risky decision-making. In addition, subprocesses were differentiated by the strength of activation in these regions, as well as by changes in activity and nucleus accumbens-connectivity by the riskiness of the decision. The presented fMRI-BART variant allows distinguishing activity and connectivity during the subprocesses of risky decision making and shows how activation and connectivity patterns relate to the riskiness of the decision. Hence, it is a useful tool for unraveling impairments in subprocesses of risky decision making in people with high risk behavior.

Increased risky choice during forced abstinence from fentanyl on the cued rat gambling task.

The use of illicit opioids has arguably never been more risky; street drug potency can be dangerously high, is often unknown to the consumer, and results in multiple daily fatalities worldwide. Furthermore, substance use disorder (SUD) is associated with increased maladaptive, risky decisions in laboratory-based gambling tasks. Animal studies can help determine whether this decision-making deficit is a cause or consequence of drug use. However, most experiments have only assessed psychostimulant drugs. To assess differences in decision-making strategies both before, during, and after self-administration of fentanyl in male and female Long Evans rats. Male and female Long Evans rats were trained to perform the rat gambling task (rGT), loosely based on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) used clinically, and/or self-administer fentanyl. We used the cued version of the rGT, in which sound and light stimuli signal sugar pellet rewards, as cocaine self-administration has the greatest effects on decision making in this task variant. After training on the cued rGT, female rats self-administered fentanyl more readily, an effect that was most apparent in optimal decision-makers. Contrary to previous reports using cocaine self-administration, decision-making was unaffected during fentanyl self-administration training in either sex. However, risky decision-making increased throughout forced abstinence from fentanyl in males. These findings complement those from human subjects, in whom preference for uncertain outcomes increased before relapse. These data highlight an abstinence-induced change in cognition that is unique to opiates as compared to psychostimulants, and which may critically contribute to the maintenance of addiction and relapse.

The effects of sleep deprivation on risky decision making.

Sleep deprivation stands as a major threat to both physical and mental well-being, disrupting normal work and life. Given the ubiquity of risky decision making, it is crucial to comprehend how individuals make risky decisions when sleep-deprived. Although research on the effects of sleep deprivation on risky decision making has increased in recent years, it remains limited and lacks a unified conclusion. The current review attempted to elucidate the effects of sleep deprivation on risky decision making in healthy adults and clarify the regulatory mechanisms. The review showed that sleep deprivation had complex effects on risky decision making; that is, whether sleep deprivation led to riskier or more conservative decision-making behavior depended on factors such as sex, gain-loss frame, use of psychotropic drugs, time interval of sleep elimination, duration of sleep deprivation, and others. Additionally, the complexity of these effects might partly arise from the use of different tasks to measure risk-taking behavior. The review also discussed some limitations of existing research and put forth practical recommendations for future studies, aiming to resolve inconsistencies in the effects of sleep deprivation on risky decision making and enhance the ecological validity of conclusions.

Sex differences in sensitivity to dopamine receptor manipulations of risk-based decision making in rats.

Risky decision making involves the ability to weigh risks and rewards associated with different options to make adaptive choices. Previous work has established a necessary role for the basolateral amygdala (BLA) in mediating effective decision making under risk of punishment, but the mechanisms by which the BLA mediates this process are less clear. Because this form of decision making is profoundly sensitive to dopaminergic (DA) manipulations, we hypothesized that DA receptors in the BLA may be involved in risk-taking behavior. To test this hypothesis, male and female Long-Evans rats were trained in a decision-making task in which rats chose between a small, safe food reward and a larger food reward that was associated with a variable risk of footshock punishment. Once behavioral stability emerged, rats received intra-BLA infusions of ligands targeting distinct dopamine receptor subtypes prior to behavioral testing. Intra-BLA infusions of the dopamine D2 receptor (D2R) agonist quinpirole decreased risk taking in females at all doses, and this reduction in risk taking was accompanied by an increase in sensitivity to punishment. In males, decreased risk taking was only observed at the highest dose of quinpirole. In contrast, intra-BLA manipulations of dopamine D1 or D3 receptors (D1R and D3R, respectively) had no effect on risk taking. Considered together, these data suggest that differential D2R sensitivity in the BLA may contribute to the well-established sex differences in risk taking. Neither D1Rs nor D3Rs, however, appear to contribute to risky decision making in either sex.

The Role of the Medial Prefrontal Cortex in Spatial Margin of Safety Calculations.

Naturalistic observations show that animals pre-empt danger by moving to locations that increase their success in avoiding future threats. To test this in humans, we created a spatial margin of safety (MOS) decision task that quantifies pre-emptive avoidance by measuring the distance subjects place themselves to safety when facing different threats whose attack locations vary in predictability. Behavioral results show that human participants place themselves closer to safe locations when facing threats that attack in spatial locations with more outliers. Using both univariate and multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) on fMRI data collected during a 2 h session on participants of both sexes, we demonstrate a dissociable role for the vmPFC in MOS-related decision-making. MVPA results revealed that the posterior vmPFC encoded for more unpredictable threats with univariate analyses showing a functional coupling with the amygdala and hippocampus. Conversely, the anterior vmPFC was more active for the more predictable attacks and showed coupling with the striatum. Our findings converge in showing that during pre-emptive danger, the anterior vmPFC may provide a safety signal, possibly via foreseeable outcomes, while the posterior vmPFC drives unpredictable danger signals.

Adaptive Bases of Distributive Justice: Rawlsian Maximin Rule Operates as a Common Cognitive Anchor in Allocation and Risky Decisions [Conference Presentation Abstract

Adaptive Bases of Distributive Justice: Rawlsian Maximin Rule Operates as a Common Cognitive Anchor in Allocation and Risky Decisions [Conference Presentation Abstract

Attenuated neural activity in processing decision-making feedback in uncertain conditions in patients with mild cognitive impairment.

The present study aimed to explore the potential neural correlates during feedback evaluation during decision-making under risk and ambiguity in MCI. Nineteen individuals with MCI and twenty age-matched HCs were enrolled. Decision-making performance under risk and ambiguity was examined with the modified game of dice task (GDT) and an Iowa gambling task (IGT). Using task-related EEG data, reward positivity (RewP) and feedback P3 (fb-P3) were used to characterize participants' motivation and allocation of cognitive resources. Also, response time and event-related oscillation (ERO) wereused to evaluate information processing speed, and the potent of post-feedback information integration and behavioral modulation. MCI patients had lower RewP (p = 0.022) and fb-P3 (p = 0.045) amplitudes in the GDT than HCs. Moreover, the amount and valence of feedback modulated the RewP (p = 0.008; p = 0.017) and fb-P3 (p < 0.001; p < 0.001). In the IGT, in addition to the significantly reduced fb-P3 observed in MCI patients (p = 0.010), the amount and valence of feedback modulated the RewP (p = 0.002; p = 0.020). Furthermore, MCI patients took longer to make decisions (t = 2.15, p = 0.041). The ERO analysis revealed that delta power was reduced in MCI (GDT: p = 0.045; p = 0.011). The findings suggest that, during feedback evaluation when making risky and ambiguous decisions, motivation, allocation of cognitive resources, information processing and neuronal excitability were attenuated in MCI. It implies that neural activity related to decision making was compromised in MCI.

Cognitive Correlates of Risky Decision-Making in Individuals with and without ADHD: A Meta-analysis.

This meta-analytic study aims to investigate the cognitive correlates of risky decision-making in individuals with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and typically developing (TD) individuals. A systematic analysis of existing literature was conducted, encompassing 38 studies (496 ADHD and 1493 TD). Findings revealed a consistent propensity for riskier decision-making in individuals with ADHD, supported by significant correlations with attention, cognitive flexibility, inhibitory control, time perception, and working memory. The study underscores the relevance of these cognitive functions in shaping decision-making tendencies, with nuanced patterns observed within the ADHD and TD subgroups. Individuals with ADHD often demonstrate altered patterns of correlation, reflecting the specific cognitive challenges characteristic of the disorder.