Risky Assets Research Articles

Satiation-Based Theory of Frugal Materialism

Frugal materialism is a tendency of consumer demand to become more elastic in product durability in response to a tightening budget constraint. This paper proposes a value function-based model of frugal materialism and establishes a close theoretical link between frugal materialism and the slope of value satiation as defined in the decision analytic literature; for both their absolute and relative versions, frugal materialism and increasing value satiation are nearly equivalent to each other. Only some shapes of the value function are thus compatible with frugal materialism, and the shape restrictions involve concepts familiar from models of decision making under risk, even though the proposed model of frugal materialism does not involve any risk. Under the additional assumption of relative risk neutrality, the demand for risky assets of a frugally materialistic consumer should exhibit well-known behavioral patterns associated with increasing risk aversion, and there is only a narrow possibility for frugal materialism to coexist with precautionary saving behavior.

A Parallel Monte Carlo Algorithm for the Life Cycle Asset Allocation Problem

Life cycle asset allocation is a crucial aspect of financial planning, especially for pension funds. Traditional methods often face challenges in computational efficiency and applicability to different market conditions. This study aimed to innovatively transplant an algorithm from reinforcement learning that enhances the efficiency and accuracy of life cycle asset allocation. We synergized tabular methods with Monte Carlo simulations to solve the pension problem. This algorithm was designed to correspond states in reinforcement learning to key variables in the pension model: wealth, labor income, consumption level, and proportion of risky assets. Additionally, we used cleaned and modeled survey data from Chinese consumers to validate the model’s optimal decision-making in the Chinese market. Furthermore, we optimized the algorithm using parallel computing to significantly reduce computation time. The proposed algorithm demonstrated superior efficiency compared to the traditional value iteration method. Serial execution of our algorithm took 29.88 min, while parallel execution reduced this to 1.42 min, compared to the 41.15 min required by the value iteration method. These innovations suggest significant potential for improving pension fund management strategies, particularly in the context of the Chinese market.

Optimal Strategies and Values for Monotone and Classical Mean-Variance Preferences Coincide when Asset Prices Are Continuous

We study classical and monotone mean-variance portfolio selection when asset prices are continuous under general trading constraints. Our main result is that optimal values and strategies for both objectives coincide in this setting. The only assumptions required are that asset prices are continuous and that not investing in the risky assets is an admissible strategy. We in particular do not assume existence of an optimal strategy.

The perverse valuation effect on mergers and acquisitions in Europe

We investigate the macroeconomic and financial determinants of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in Europe and address the gap in understanding how financial market dynamics influence corporate decisions. While previous literature has examined macroeconomic factors affecting M&As, the impact of (10-year government) bond yields remains underexplored. We fill this gap using panel data of 21 European Union Countries over 2006:Q1–2022:Q2. Across different model specifications we find that bond yields and real gross domestic product growth are robust determinants of M&As, even after controlling for other determinants. A novelty of our study is that rising and higher bond yields are associated with a reduction in M&As activity because investors are shifting their portfolios out of bonds and into riskier assets like equities, thereby increasing acquisition costs. We denote this as a “perverse valuation effect”offering new insights into M&As dynamics.

De-risking strategies of defined benefit plans and economic outcome: empirical evidence from U.S. Firms

ABSTRACT This paper examines the de-risking behaviour of defined benefit (DB) pension plans sponsored by U.S. firms. By analysing a range of strategies used in U.S. markets between 1994 and 2018, such as plan shifts, freezes, terminations, buyouts, buyins, and longevity hedges, we identify the key drivers and outcomes of pension de-risking. Our findings suggest that severe underfunding of pension plans is a major catalyst for de-risking, and firms facing a higher degree of financial distress are more likely to de-risk. Although de-risking varies across sectors, we find no significant evidence of improvements in firm operational performance or credit risk following de-risking. Additionally, de-risking decisions are influenced by the interest rate environment, becoming more likely when the projected long-term interest rates decline or when returns on risky assets are expected to increase.

How Does Digital Inclusive Finance Affect Household Financial Vulnerability?

ABSTRACT Based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) three-wave data (2013, 2015, and 2018), this paper constructs a panel Probit model to investigate the impact of digital inclusive finance on household financial vulnerability. The empirical results show that the development of digital inclusive finance can significantly reduce household financial vulnerability. For 1% increase in digital inclusive finance, the probability of household financial vulnerability decreases by 7.0%. The results are robust after addressing endogeneity issues and altering regression models, the dependent variable, and the independent variable. Through the influencing mechanism tests, this paper finds that digital inclusive finance reduces the financial vulnerability of households by reducing credit constraints, promoting entrepreneurship, and increasing risky asset holdings. The heterogeneous effects show that the vulnerability-mitigation effect of digital inclusive finance is more significant in better-educated and younger households and in urban and developed areas.

Insider trading at a random deadline with correlation between dynamic asset and stochastic liquidity

We propose a generalized continuous-time insider trading model, building upon the frameworks of Caldentey and Stacchetti (2010) and Collin-Dufresne and Fos (2016), with a correlation between the value of a risky asset following an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-type process and the noise trading volume with volatility characterized by a general stochastic process. And a closed form of the market equilibrium is established, consisting of the insider's trading strategy and the market makers' pricing rule. It shows that at the equilibrium: (i) all of the insider's private information is released at the end of the transaction; (ii) market depth and market liquidity evolve as semi-martingales, respectively; and (iii) the equilibrium price is driven by a bridge process that solves an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-type SDE. Numerical simulations show that as the correlation coefficient increases, the equilibrium price becomes more informative, leading to a decrease in both the trading intensity and the expected payoff for the insider.

The Gender Investment Gap over the Life Cycle

Abstract Single women invest less in risky assets than do single men. This paper analyzes the determinants of the “gender investment gap” based on a structural life-cycle framework. The model can rationalize the gender investment gap without gender heterogeneity in preferences. Rather, lower deterministic income and larger household sizes shift the composition of single women toward poorer households that invest less risky (composition effect). Additionally, future outcomes of both variables (which cannot easily be controlled for in regressions) make single women more vulnerable to financial shocks and decrease their optimal equity share even conditional on state variables (policy effect). (JEL E21, G11, G50, J16)

Liquidity Preference, Interest Rate Spread, and the Transformation of the US Financial System

This article examines empirical patterns of interest rate spreads between yields on long-term corporate bonds and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) in the United States over the period from 1960 through 2023. Since the early 1980s, discernible patterns of interest spreads have emerged, revealing marked deviations in corporate bond yields from the FFR. We focus on financial market forces particularly arising from financial intermediaries in analyzing these patterns. To this end, the article develops a theoretical framework based on the concept of liquidity preference in Keynes’s 1937 papers and the works of Hyman Minsky and Victoria Chick. We also conduct cointegration analyses for corporate bond yields, the FFR, and financial intermediaries’ leverage ratios. Overall, our empirical results indicate that the relationship between the FFR and corporate bond yields—particularly with respect to their long-run relationship and interest rate markups—has markedly changed since the 1980s and is significantly affected by financial intermediaries’ asset/capital leverage ratios. As a policy implication, regulatory reforms aimed at enhancing the Federal Reserve Bank’s capacity to steer long-term rates and contain intermediaries’ balance sheet leverage, particularly those centered on risky asset trading to increase gains from price differentials, are required JEL Classification: B26, E11, E43, E52

Bond market structure and volatility

AbstractWe apply variance ratio methodologies to examine market quality in the US corporate bond market. We find that the open‐to‐open to close‐to‐close return variance ratio is greater than one suggesting that the corporate bond market is less efficient during the opening hours than during the closing hours. We show that the higher variance ratio at the open is related to the market power of dealers at the open and the sources of power are from lower cost of inventory, lower asymmetric information, and more flexibility to intermediate a trade. Dealers appear to exert less market power for bonds with low volume and credit rating. The results are consistent with dealers behaving strategically to unload risky assets and take on safer assets.

Portfolio optimization with feedback strategies based on artificial neural networks

Dynamic portfolio optimization has significantly benefited from a wider adoption of deep learning (DL). While existing research has focused on how DL can applied to solving the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation, some very recent developments propose to forego the derivation of HJB in favor of empirical utility maximization over dynamic allocation strategies expressed through artificial neural networks. In addition to simplicity and transparency, this approach is universally applicable, as it is essentially agnostic about market dynamics. We apply it to optimal portfolio allocation between cash account and risky asset following Heston model. The results appear on par with theoretical ones.

Martingale Pricing and Single Index Models: Unified Approach with Esscher and Minimal Relative Entropy Measures

In this paper, we explore the connection between a single index model under the real-world probability measure and martingale pricing via minimal relative entropy or Esscher transform, within the context of a one-period market model, possibly incomplete, with multiple risky assets and a single risk-free asset. The minimal relative entropy martingale measure and the Esscher martingale measure coincide in such a market, provided they both exist. From their Radon–Nikodym derivative, we derive a portfolio of risky assets in a natural way, termed portfolio G. Our analysis shows that pricing using the Esscher or minimal relative entropy martingale measure is equivalent to a single index model (SIM) incorporating portfolio G. In the special case of elliptical returns, portfolio G coincides with the classical tangency portfolio. Furthermore, in the case of jointly normal returns, Esscher or minimal relative entropy martingale measure pricing is equivalent to CAPM pricing.

China’s public long-term care insurance and risky asset allocation among elderly households

China’s elderly households are characterized by higher holdings of cash and cash equivalents and lower holdings of stocks and bonds in their financial portfolios. We utilize the public Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) reform and data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) to examine how LTCI coverage affects risky asset holdings among newly insured elderly households. Employing a difference-in-differences methodology, our findings reveal that LTCI significantly increases the share of risky assets in the financial portfolios of older families. The increased preference for risky assets may be a result of a weakening incentive for precautionary savings. Decomposing risky assets into bonds and stocks, we find that the increase in the share of risky assets following the LTCI pilot comes mainly from bond investments rather than stocks, which indicates that LTCI has a limited effect on risk asset holdings among the Chinese elderly. Our study contributes to understanding the economic impacts of China’s public LTCI by showing that LTCI may lead to changes in asset allocation strategies among elderly households.

Minimizing the penalized goal-reaching probability with multiple dependent risks

We consider a robust optimal investment and reinsurance problem with multiple dependent risks for an Ambiguity-Averse Insurer (AAI), who wishes to minimize the probability that the value of the wealth process reaches a low barrier before a high goal. We assume that the insurer can purchase per-loss reinsurance for every class of insurance business and invest its surplus in a risk-free asset and a risky asset. Using the technique of stochastic control theory and solving the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, we derive the robust optimal investment-reinsurance strategy and the associated value function. We conclude that the robust optimal investment-reinsurance strategy coincides with the one without model ambiguity, but the value function differs. We also illustrate our results by numerical examples.

How motivations and costs affect financial knowledge learning? Evidence from a large-scale FinTech experiment in China

Utilizing the launch of mobile wealth management services in China in 2013 as a shock to financial education, we analyze a panel of 16,440 households through a difference-in-differences strategy to examine how learning motivations and costs affect financial knowledge learning. Results show that using mobile services encourages risky asset holdings and enhances the self-discipline to learn, which, coupled with low-cost and personalized learning tools provided through the services, increases financial knowledge. We contribute by utilizing a large-scale experiment beyond the classroom to show the role of learning motivations and costs in financial knowledge learning, therefore help clear the controversy on the effectiveness of financial education.

ЗАДАЧА ОПТИМАЛЬНОГО СТОХАСТИЧЕСКОГО УПРАВЛЕНИЯ И ОЦЕНКИ СТОИМОСТИ КОРПОРАТИВНЫХ ОБЛИГАЦИЙ, ЗАВИСЯЩИХ ОТ ВРЕМЕНИ И СЛУЧАЙНЫХ СОСТОЯНИЙ ПАРАМЕТРОВ

In the optimal stochastic control problem, one estimates, using the utility indifference method, the bond price and the premium of a default swap contract (Credit default swap) when the model parameters (market interest rate, drift coef-ficient, and volatility of risky underlying assets) are random functions of time and state. Namely, the interest rate of the risk-free asset depends on time, and the prices of risky assets are described by linear homogeneous stochastic dif-ferential equations (SDEs) with multiplicative noise. To do this, the authors consider a portfolio with a risk-free asset and a risky asset with no default risk. For each such portfolio, the authors determine the amount of risky assets that maximizes the expected utility of its final wealth. This quantity allows one to solve the parabolic partial differential equations arising from the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation by transforming them into ordinary differential equations using the method of variable separation to obtain the instantaneous value function of each portfolio. The authors derive the bond price and the default swap-contract premium (CDS) rate, which are the amounts that provide the same level of the expected utility by investing all of one’s wealth in a portfolio that does not contain these credit instruments, or by investing these amounts in credit instruments and the remainder of one’s wealth in the portfolio.

Optimal investment strategies and intergenerational risk sharing for target benefit pension plans under habit formation

This paper investigates a stochastic model of a continuous-time target benefit pension system with habit formation, where members' contributions are predetermined and pension payments depend on the financial condition of the system. Moreover, risk sharing among different generations is considered and we incorporate the habitual benefit payment process into the plan manager's objective. Concretely, the plan manager aims to minimize the deviation between actual payments and habitual payments, which can minimize the combined benefit-risk (i.e. deviation from the habitual target) and intergenerational transfers effectively. Furthermore, the pension fund is allowed to invest in a risk-free asset and a risky asset. By employing the martingale method, we derive the optimal investment strategy and the benefit adjustment strategy explicitly. Finally, numerical analysis is provided to illustrate the effects of model parameters on the optimal strategies.

Navigating risk: Impact of overconfidence in financial literacy on retirement wealth reserves

This study examined the impact of overconfidence in financial literacy on risky asset investments within retirement wealth reserves. We used data of 36,268 respondents of the “China Aging Finance Survey” (2020–2022). The findings reveal that overconfidence significantly drives households toward riskier investments, and the conclusions were reinforced through robustness checks. Furthermore, the effect was moderated by pension replacement rate satisfaction, willingness to pay for financial advice, and risk preferences. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that male respondents and less educated respondents were significantly affected by overconfidence. Moreover, respondents with basic pension insurance were likelier to opt for risky assets.

Cost-efficient payoffs under model ambiguity

Dybvig (1988a, 1988b) solves in a complete market setting the problem of finding a payoff that is cheapest possible in reaching a given target distribution (“cost-efficient payoff”). In the presence of ambiguity, the distribution of a payoff is, however, no longer known with certainty. We study the problem of finding the cheapest possible payoff whose worst-case distribution stochastically dominates a given target distribution (“robust cost-efficient payoff”) and determine solutions under certain conditions. We study the link between “robust cost-efficiency” and the maxmin expected utility setting of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989), as well as more generally in a possibly nonexpected robust utility setting. Specifically, we show that solutions to maxmin robust expected utility are necessarily robust cost-efficient. We illustrate our study with examples involving uncertainty both on the drift and on the volatility of the risky asset.

Alpha-robust mean–variance reinsurance and investment strategies with transaction costs

This paper investigates the time-consistent reinsurance and investment strategies for insurers based on the alpha-robust mean–variance criterion. We assume that transaction costs with quadratic form exist in the financial market composed of a risk-free asset and n risky assets, and the insurance and financial markets are correlated. By solving a system of extended HJB equations, the equilibrium reinsurance and investment strategy and the corresponding value function are derived in terms of the solution to a system of matrix Riccati equations. In some special cases, more explicit expressions for the equilibrium strategies and value functions are provided. Numerical examples demonstrate that the growth rate of investment slows down as the transaction costs level or the correlation coefficient increases. In addition, we find that the transaction costs level has opposite effects on the utility losses due to ignoring jumps or ambiguity.