Supply Risk Research Articles

Design and Economic Analysis of a Grid-Tied Microgrid Using Homer Software

The demand for electrical energy is increasing due to reasons such as economic growth, industrialization and electrification. The world responds to a large part of this electricity demand with fossil fuel-based production. However, the constraints on the sustainability of fossil resources and the negative effects of fossil-based production on nature have made renewable energy one of the most talked about concepts in the energy sector in recent years. After Russian – Ukrainian conflict, the effects of political crises between countries were seen in the field of energy, and many countries faced the risk of energy supply and high pricing policies. With its easy integration of renewable energy and its structure that reduces dependency in energy, Microgrids (MGs) are important for the energy systems of the future. However, the environmental dependence of renewable energy prevents it from being used as an absolute energy source in systems. In this study, a microgrid design for the city of Duquesne, USA whose main sources of electricity generation are solar and wind, has been realized and electrical and economic analyzes have been made over different scenarios as grid-tied, limited grid activation and standalone. Scenarios are evaluated on Net Present Value (NPV), Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), installation cost and renewable penetration. The grid-tied scenario, which reduces the LCOE by around 33% compared to the existing grid has been determined as the most economic option.

Phosphorus Flow Analysis in Lithuania

Substance flow analysis was used to analyze phosphorus (P) flows, accumulations and losses in Lithuania. P and phosphate rock are included in the list of EU critical raw materials, showing their importance for the EU economy, especially agriculture, and supply risks. It is important to minimize P losses as much as possible, avoid inefficient use, and maximize the potential of secondary P. The analysis showed Lithuania’s huge dependence on P imports, which occurred because one of the largest P fertilizer factories operates in the country, and the country also grows and exports a significant amount of cereals. In total, 69% of P addition to soil is from mineral fertilizers. The potential of secondary P is only partially used, mainly via manure, which constitutes 83% of the recycled P and adds 26% of P to agricultural soil. In total, 58% of P “waste” is either lost or accumulated, largely in phosphogypsum stacks. If this P was fully utilized, the country could reduce the current usage of mineral fertilizers by 71%; without P in phosphogypsum, the reduction would be just 7.2%. The P balance in Lithuanian soil is close to neutral. Agricultural leaching and erosion are the main reasons for P entering water bodies (78% of P) and, therefore, should be further reduced.

Improved recovery of lithium from spent lithium-ion batteries by reduction roasting and NaHCO3 leaching

Lithium supply risk is increasing and driving rapid progress in lithium recovery schemes from spent lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). In this study, a facile recycling process consisting mainly of reduction roasting and NaHCO3 leaching was adopted to improve lithium recovery. The Li of spent LiNixCoyMn1−x−yO2 powder were converted to Li2CO3 and LiAlO2 with the reduction effect of C and residual Al in the roasting process. NaHCO3 leaching was utilized to selectively dissolve lithium from Li2CO3 and water-insoluble LiAlO2. The activation energy of NaHCO3 leaching was 9.31 kJ∙mol−1 and the leaching of lithium was a diffusion control reaction. More than 95.19 % lithium was leached and recovered as a Li2CO3 product with a purity of 99.80 %. Thus, this approach provides a green path to selective recovery of lithium with good economics.

Supply chain risks and corporate innovation strategy: from the perspective of breakthrough innovation and incremental innovation

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the impact of supply chain risks on corporate innovation in China. Our findings indicate that firms with high supply chain risks are more inclined towards incremental innovation rather than breakthrough innovation. This relationship is further strengthened by high customer concentration and strong financial constraints, and it is more pronounced in industries characterized by higher levels of competitiveness and within the high-tech sector. Furthermore, the influence of supply chain risks on corporate innovation is jointly driven by supply and demand risks. Crucially, strategic adjustments in response to supply chain risks not only improve operational performance but also enhance the stability of customer relationships.

Spatially and temporally differentiated characterization factors for supply risk of abiotic resources in life cycle assessment

Life cycle assessment, a comprehensive tool to evaluate environmental impacts across a product's life cycle, traditionally focuses on "inside-out" impacts caused by the product on the environment, emphasizing resource use, global warming, and other environmental impacts. In contrast, the "outside-in" perspective considers resource availability and accessibility to industry. This second perspective was developed as a way to integrate raw material criticality assessment into LCA. The GeoPolRisk method assesses the supply risk based on global production concentration, import shares, political stability scores, and the average price of the commodity. This article introduces a characterization model for the GeoPolRisk method and calculates the Geopolitical Supply Risk Potential of using 46 raw materials across different countries in multiple years. The characterization factors show the highest values for precious metals, like platinum group metals (PGMs), reflecting their high market prices and concentrated production in geopolitically unstable regions. The results emphasize the significance of spatial and temporal variations in characterization factors, providing a nuanced assessment of supply risk of raw materials associated with the product system. Despite data limitations, the characterization factors offer a good estimate of the supply risk of raw materials available for use in product systems. A case study on photovoltaic laminate production highlights gallium, copper, and tin as significant contributors to supply risk. From an "outside-in" perspective, the case study demonstrates how the GeoPolRisk method complements traditional environmental indicators such as global warming, making it a valuable tool for assessing mineral resource supply risk in Life Cycle Assessment.

Mapping the cobalt and lithium supply chains for e-mobility transition: Significance of overseas investments and vertical integration in evaluating mineral supply risks

The potential shortages of critical materials such as cobalt and lithium induced by the global e-mobility transition have recently raised enormous concerns. Here, we map the global cobalt and lithium material flows and discuss their supply risks at both country and company levels. We demonstrate highly concentrated supply chains for cobalt and lithium, especially in the production (69 % of cobalt in DRC and 80 % of lithium in Australia and Chile), refining (over half in China), and for cathode materials and cell production (by Eastern Asian countries). The top 10 companies control around 80 % of global mining and refining production. Overseas investments, particularly by multinational companies, may potentially decrease supply chain concentration. Many upstream companies engage in vertical integration to enhance business value, whereas downstream companies invest in mining or refining operations for a reliable supply. Achieving supply chain security for cobalt and lithium requires transparent international trading systems, responsible sourcing practices, and enhanced recycling.

Leveraging an Uncertainty Methodology to Appraise Risk Factors Threatening Sustainability of Food Supply Chain

By diminishing the risk factors associated with the food supply chain (FSC), we have recourse to strengthen the food supply chain's resilience, decrease food waste, and increase its sustainability. Prioritizing and identifying the risk factors impacting the sustainability of the food supply chain is essential for managing uncertainty and averting unfavorable consequences. This study attempts to identify and rank the most significant risks affecting the sustainability of the food supply chain under an uncertain environment. We use the α-Discounting multi-criteria decision-making (α-D MCDM) method for the main three risk factors: the risks of supply, the risks of demand, and the risks of operations. The primary causes of the challenges in assessing the food supply chain's risk elements include inaccurate assessment data, DMs' subjective preferences, and DMs' differing opinions and thoughts about the criteria. Unfortunately, earlier research fell short of fully resolving these issues. A hybrid three-phase neutrosophic MCDM method is proposed by integrating triangular neutrosophic numbers (TNNs), TNN-AHP, and TNN-CoCoSo to close this gap. In this manner, it may efficiently handle ambiguity. The application of the suggested framework is then explored using the top six food and beverage businesses in the world: Nestle (A1), PepsiCo (A2), Coca-Cola (A3), Danon (A4), Anheuser-Busch InBev SA (A5), and Mondelez International (A6). The results show the sustainability rankings from best to worst, which were established on the groups of decision-makers assessments based on the importance of the risk factors that have to be handled. To gain additional insight into the rationale and resilience of this framework, sensitivity evaluation and comparative analysis have been employed in this study.

Economic and Ecological Benefits of SHM Techniques in Chemical Process Industry

High-performance machine components are involved in a wide range of industrial production processes. They play an important role in the provision of chemical products, pharmaceuticals, and energy resources. They require monitoring because they can fail during production due to corrosion and/or wear, which often means an increased risk to people and the environment. Periodic inspections with on-site test personnel often require a shutdown of the chemical plant. Ideally, an ultrasonic structural health monitoring (SHM) system could be used to provide continuous data on the structural integrity of these components while reducing or eliminating plant downtime. A plant shutdown is not only a high economic or supply risk but can also be energy intensive. In our presentation, we would like to give an overview of the technical requirements for an SHM system to be used in the chemical industry. Finally, the presentation will highlight the economic benefits of SHM as well as its contribution to energy savings and reduction of CO2 emissions per ton of chemical product produced.

Integrated multi-objective chance-constrained fuzzy interval linear programming model with principal component analysis for optimizing agricultural water resource management under uncertainties

ABSTRACT This study addresses the pivotal challenge of water resource allocation in urban environments by introducing a novel approach – a multi-objective chance-constrained fuzzy interval linear programming model integrated with principal component analysis (PCA). This innovative model aims to alleviate subjectivity in urban water management processes, particularly in adjusting water demands across various sectors. The proposed model incorporates correlation analysis to identify dimensionality-reducing factors of multitarget components, determining the proportion of each target component relative to the total components. Fuzzy sets are applied to irrigation water resource allocation quantity, segmented into six levels of fuzzy membership to analyze the stochasticity of water supply. Results demonstrate the model's efficacy, revealing that variations in risk probabilities impact water supply, necessitating positive water management strategies to enhance agricultural efficiency and negative strategies to mitigate the risk of inadequate water supply. Key findings emphasize the significance of agricultural water availability and the structure of irrigation water use in optimal resource allocation. Importantly, the study showcases the enhanced precision achieved through the proposed multi-objective chance-constrained fuzzy interval linear programming with PCA, thereby refining the optimization outcomes for water management under multifaceted objectives.

System model of risks and trees of alternative solutions for improving the logistics chain at a manufacturing enterprise

The subject of this article is the decision-making processes for improving the elements of the supply chain of a manufacturing enterprise under conditions of uncertainty and risks. The purpose of the research is to reduce the time and cost of in supply and distribution of products of manufacturing enterprises by considering possible risks through making rational management decisions. The article addresses the following tasks: examination of the characteristics of supply chain elements; investigation of the main problems of supply and distribution management and identification of ways to solve them; development of a systemic model of logistic risks for a manufacturing enterprise; and formation of decision trees for alternative decisions in strategic supply chain management at manufacturing enterprises. The methods applied include a systems approach, structural decomposition methods, a risk-oriented approach. The following results were obtained: features and problems of supply chain elements such as supply, production, storage, and distribution were examined and identified; main supply chain management tasks were investigated and solutions identified; problems in warehouse management were pinpointed; internal and external supply risks were identified; a systemic model of logistic risks for a manufacturing enterprise was formed, which main components are logistic problems, partial risks, their consequences, and possible management decisions to mitigate risks; decision trees were built for problems of raw material supply instability and transportation bottlenecks and delays; an alternative decision diagram was constructed for an illustrative example. Conclusions: To overcome the problem of raw material supply instability, it is recommended to develop diversification of supply sources, stock reservation, and the use of alternative transport routes. Building alternative decision trees in strategic management is an effective tool for making rational decisions by manufacturing enterprises in complex conditions of uncertainty and risks. They help to analyze alternatives and their consequences to choose a path to optimize the supply chain.

An Integrated Hydrometallurgical Treatment and Combustion Process for Sustainable Production of Sm2O3 Nanoparticles from Waste SmCo Magnets

Samarium (Sm), as one of the rare earth elements (REEs), has gained significant attention in the production of SmCo magnets due to their high corrosion and oxidation resistance, as well as their high-temperature stability. SmCo magnets find applications in various industries, including but not limited to national defense, aerospace, military, and medical equipment. Sm and Co have been classified as a critical metal due to its economic importance and supply risk. Recovering Sm from SmCo magnets is an effective method to ensure a stable supply. The present study investigates an integrated hydrometallurgical treatment and combustion process for the preparation of rare earth oxide (Sm2O3) powders from SmCo. Initially, SmCo powders is exposed to nitric acid, and the resulting slurry is selectively oxidized at 250 °C to obtain Sm(NO3)3, Co2O3, and Fe2O3. Subsequently, the selectively oxidized powders are leached with water to extract Sm. Sm2O3 powders are produced from the obtained leaching solution using an energy- and time-efficient solution combustion process. In this process, once the ignition point of the leaching solution-citric acid complex is reached, combustion occurs and concludes within a short time. The combusted powders are then calcined at different temperatures to produce crystalline Sm2O3 powders. Finally, the optimal conditions for the production of Sm2O3 are identified, and the produced powder is characterized through XRD and FESEM analysis.

Risk Transmission in Low-Carbon Supply Chains Considering Corporate Risk Aversion

In order to study the impact of risk aversion characteristics of enterprises on supply chain risk transmission, the risk aversion utility function is introduced, and the risk elasticity coefficient is used to construct a supplier-dominated low-carbon supply chain risk transmission model. Simulation analysis is conducted to investigate the transmission of emission reduction and revenue risks caused by internal and external contingent risk factors. The study reveals that under conditions of market demand uncertainty, the risk transmission effect is unaffected by the risk aversion characteristics of members in the low-carbon supply chain. While the risk-aversion characteristics of suppliers can decrease their own profit risk, they have a negative effect on the profit risk of manufacturers and the emission reduction risk of supply chain nodes. There exists a critical threshold for the impact of the risk-aversion degree of suppliers on their own emission reduction risk transmission effect. When this threshold is exceeded, the emission reduction risk decreases with increasing risk aversion intensity of suppliers, and vice versa. The risk aversion characteristics of manufacturers can weaken the negative effect of supplier risk aversion on the fluctuation risk of manufacturer profits, but they exacerbate the emission reduction risk transmission effect of manufacturers under asymmetric information influence. The findings have important theoretical and practical implications for supply chain risk management.

Incentive contract design for reducing carbon emissions in the supply chain under asymmetric information

AbstractIn light of the volatility of market demand and carbon trading prices, this study examines the effects of two carbon policies—the carbon tax policy and the cap‐and‐trade policy—as well as various information structures on the supply chain's carbon emission reduction incentives. A brand incentivizes the carbon abatement effort of an upstream supplier through a two‐part contract in the form of a fixed salary and a proportional incentive. We discover that, under some circumstances, the brand may benefit more from the unobservability of supply chain information. The brand bundles the risk of uncertainty with the supplier through the proportional incentive. In classical incentive contracts, only the cost is considered and the positive effect of risk conveyance is often ignored. In our study, the brand needs to investigate a trade‐off between the benefit of risk conveyance and the drawback of the incentive cost. On one hand, the proportional incentive characterizes the incentive cost. The brand increases the incentive intensity due to the unobservable effort of the supplier. On the other hand, it also has a risk conveyance effect. Specifically, the proportional incentive decreases with the correlation coefficient under the cap‐and‐trade policy. Additionally, there are situations in which consumer surplus benefits from the observability of supply chain information. However, supply chain information transparency is harmful to consumer surplus as supplier risk aversion increases.

Microstructural Investigation of Discarded NdFeB Magnets After Low-Temperature Hydrogenation

Due to continuously increasing demand and limited resources of rare-earth elements (REEs), new solutions are being sought to overcome the supply risk of REEs. To mitigate the supply risk of REEs, much attention has recently been paid to recycling. Despite the more common recycling methods, including hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical processes, hydrogen processing of magnetic scrap (HPMS) is still in the development stage. Magnet-to-magnet recycling via hydrogenation of discarded NdFeB magnets provides a fine powder suitable for the production of new magnets from secondary sources. One of the crucial aspects of HPMS is the degree of recovery of the magnetic properties, as the yield efficiency can easily reach over 95%. The amount, morphology, and distribution of the Nd-rich phase are the key parameters to achieve the excellent performance of the magnet by isolating the matrix grain. Therefore, a better insight into the microstructure of the matrix grains and the Nd-rich phase before and after hydrogenation is essential. In this study, a low-temperature hydrogenation process in the range of room temperature to 400 °C was conducted as the first step to recycle NdFeB magnets from discarded hard disk drives (HDDs), and the hydrogenated powder was characterized by electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction. The results show that there are three different morphologies of the Nd-rich phase, which undergo two different transformations through oxidation and hydride formation. While at lower temperatures (below 250 °C) the degree of pulverization is higher and the experimental evidence of hydride formation is less clear, at higher temperatures the degree of pulverization decreases. The formation of neodymium hydride at higher temperatures prevents further oxidation of the Nd-rich phase due to its high stability.Graphical

Agency contracts with incentive mechanisms considering supplier risk aversion in a dynamic platform supply chain

Agency contracts with incentive mechanisms considering supplier risk aversion in a dynamic platform supply chain

The development of China’s monopoly over cobalt battery materials

While previous resource conflicts have often been linked to fuel minerals such as oil, future resource conflict may revolve around nonfuel minerals that enable strategic emerging technologies. During a 2010 diplomatic dispute, China reportedly blocked exports of rare earth elements to Japan, thereby leveraging China’s near-monopoly to threaten Japanese manufacturers of advanced technologies including batteries and permanent magnets. Although this caused significant concern for manufacturers outside China, China’s control over other critical minerals has yet to be studied comprehensively. Besides rare earth elements, perhaps no mineral has received more attention for its supply risks than cobalt. Here Chinese control is estimated for each cobalt material at each stage of the cobalt supply chain from 2000 through 2022. The results show that from mining, to refining, consumption, recycling, stocks, and trade, China dominates the cobalt materials that feed lithium-ion battery cathode production. Specifically, the results show that in 2022 Chinese firms had control over 62% of cobalt mine materials primarily used for cobalt chemical refining, 95% control of refined commercial-grade cobalt chemicals, 92% control of battery-grade tricobalt tetroxide, 85% control of battery-grade cobalt sulfate, and 91% control of nickel–cobalt-manganese cathode precursor materials. China’s monopoly over cobalt battery materials may imply a serious supply risk to non-Chinese battery producing and consuming industries—especially given rising geopolitical tensions and the reemergence of critical mineral export restrictions including gallium for semiconductors, germanium for solar panels, graphite for lithium-ion batteries, and (again) rare earth elements.

Topological Characterization and Uncertainty Visualization of Atmospheric Rivers

AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow regions of water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere that transport heat and moisture from the tropics to the mid‐latitudes. ARs are often associated with extreme weather events in North America and contribute significantly to water supply and flood risk. However, characterizing ARs has been a major challenge due to the lack of a universal definition and their structural variations. Existing AR detection tools (ARDTs) produce distinct AR boundaries for the same event, making the risk assessment of ARs a difficult task. Understanding these uncertainties is crucial to improving the predictability of AR impacts, including their landfall areas and associated precipitation, which could cause catastrophic flooding and landslides over the coastal regions. In this work, we develop an uncertainty visualization framework that captures boundary and interior uncertainties, i.e., structural variations, of an ensemble of ARs that arise from a set of ARDTs. We first provide a statistical overview of the AR boundaries using the contour boxplots of Whitaker et al. that highlight the structural variations of AR boundaries based on their nesting relationships. We then introduce the topological skeletons of ARs based on Morse complexes that characterize the interior variation of an ensemble of ARs. We propose an uncertainty visualization of these topological skeletons, inspired by MetroSets of Jacobson et al. that emphasizes the agreements and disagreements across the ensemble members. Through case studies and expert feedback, we demonstrate that the two approaches complement each other, and together they could facilitate an effective comparative analysis process and provide a more confident outlook on an AR's shape, area, and onshore impact.

Addendum To: Supplier risk assessment strategy

Addendum To: Supplier risk assessment strategy

Tracking the global anthropogenic gallium cycle during 2000–2020: A trade-linked multiregional material flow analysis

Byproduct metals are essential to global low carbon transition since they are irreplaceable in modern renewable energy technologies. Gallium (Ga) is classified as one critical byproduct metal due to its extensive use in electronic applications and low carbon technologies, as well as its limited resource endowment. It is urgent to uncover the global and regional Ga stocks and flows so that the potential supply risks can be mitigated. This study maps the global and regional Ga cycles for the period of 2000–2020 by employing a trade-linked multiregional material flow analysis (MFA) method. Our results show that 79% of the global Ga co-mined from bauxite ended up in red mud or entered the aluminum cycle as an impurity, indicating a significant recycling potential. Different involved regions have different but complementary roles in the global Ga supply chain. China dominates the global primary Ga production, accounting for 97% of the global total in 2020. Japan and the United States are key players in high-purity Ga refining and rely on Ga to support their electronic devices manufacturing. Unfortunately, Ga recycling practices are still not occurring due to the low Ga concentrations in major applications. Since the global demand for Ga will continue to grow in the near future, it is urgent to initiate collaborative efforts so that Ga recycling can be enhanced. These efforts are critical to ensure the sustainable Ga supply and facilitate the global transition toward low carbon development.

State of Play of Critical Mineral-Based Catalysts for Electrochemical E-Refinery to Synthetic Fuels.

The pursuit of decarbonization involves leveraging waste CO2 for the production of valuable fuels and chemicals (e.g., ethanol, ethylene, and urea) through the electrochemical CO2 reduction reactions (CO2RR). The efficacy of this process heavily depends on electrocatalyst performance, which is generally reliant on high loading of critical minerals. However, the supply of these minerals is susceptible to shortage and disruption, prompting concerns regarding their usage, particularly in electrocatalysis, requiring swift innovations to mitigate the supply risks. The reliance on critical minerals in catalyst fabrication can be reduced by implementing design strategies that improve the available active sites, thereby increasing the mass activity. This review seeks to discuss and analyze potential strategies, challenges, and opportunities for improving catalyst activity in CO2RR with a special attention to addressing the risks associated with critical mineral scarcity. By shedding light onto these aspects of critical mineral-based catalyst systems, this review aims to inspire the development of high-performance catalysts and facilitates the practical application of CO2RR technology, whilst mitigating adverse economic, environmental, and community impacts.