Risk Of Disease Emergence Research Articles

An unusually long Rift valley fever inter-epizootic period in Zambia: Evidence for enzootic virus circulation and risk for disease outbreak.

Rift valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne disease of animals and humans. Although RVF outbreaks are usually reported at 5-15-year intervals in sub-Saharan Africa, Zambia has experienced an unusually long inter-epizootic/-epidemic period of more than three decades. However, serological evidence of RVF virus (RVFV) infection in domestic ruminants during this period underscores the need for comprehensive investigation of the mechanisms of virus perpetuation and disease emergence. Mosquitoes (n = 16,778) captured from eight of the ten provinces of Zambia between April 2014 and May 2019 were pooled (n = 961) and screened for RVFV genome by a pan-phlebo RT-PCR assay. Aedes mosquito pools (n = 85) were further screened by nested RT-PCR assay. Sera from sheep (n = 13), goats (n = 259) and wild ungulates (n = 285) were screened for RVFV antibodies by ELISA while genome detection in pooled sera (n = 276) from domestic (n = 248) and wild ungulates (n = 37) was performed by real-time RT-PCR assay. To examine the association between the long inter-epizootic period and climatic variables, we examined El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices, precipitation anomalies, and normalized difference vegetation index. We then derived RVF risk maps by exploring climatic variables that would favor emergence of primary RVFV vectors. While no RVFV genome could be detected in pooled mosquito and serum samples, seroprevalence was significantly high (OR = 8.13, 95% CI [4.63–14.25]) in wild ungulates (33.7%; 96/285) compared to domestic ruminants (5.6%; 16/272). Retrospective analysis of RVF epizootics in Zambia showed a positive correlation between anomalous precipitation (La Niña) and disease emergence. On risk mapping, whilst northern and eastern parts of the country were at high risk, domestic ruminant population density was low (< 21 animals/km2) in these areas compared to low risk areas (>21 animals/km2). Besides evidence of silent circulation of RVFV and the risk of disease emergence in some areas, wildlife may play a role in the maintenance of RVFV in Zambia.

Temperature-dependent variation in the extrinsic incubation period elevates the risk of vector-borne disease emergence

Identifying ecological drivers of disease transmission is central to understanding disease risks. For vector-borne diseases, temperature is a major determinant of transmission because vital parameters determining the fitness of parasites and vectors are highly temperature-sensitive, including the extrinsic incubation period required for parasites to develop within the vector. Temperature also underlies dramatic differences in the individual-level variation in the extrinsic incubation period, yet the influence of this variation in disease transmission is largely unexplored. We incorporate empirical estimates of dengue virus extrinsic incubation period and its variation across a range of temperatures into a stochastic model to examine the consequences for disease emergence. We find that such variation impacts the probability of disease emergence because exceptionally rapid, but empirically observed incubation — typically ignored by modelling only the average — increases the chance of disease emergence even at the limits of the temperature range for dengue transmission. We show that variation in the extrinsic incubation period causes the greatest proportional increase in the risk of disease emergence at cooler temperatures where the mean incubation period is long, and associated variation is large. Thus, ignoring EIP variation will likely lead to underestimation of the risk of vector-borne disease emergence in temperate climates.

Prevalence and population genetics of the emerging honey bee pathogen DWV in Chinese apiculture

Honey bees are agriculturally important, both as pollinators and by providing products such as honey. The sustainability of beekeeping is at risk through factors of global change such as habitat loss, as well as through the spread of infectious diseases. In China and other parts of Asia, beekeepers rely both on native Apis cerana and non-native Apis mellifera, putting bee populations at particular risk of disease emergence from multi-host pathogens. Indeed, two important honey bee parasites have emerged from East Asian honey bees, the mite Varroa destructor and the microsporidian Nosema ceranae. As V. destructor vectors viral bee diseases, we investigated whether another key bee pathogen, Deformed Wing Virus (DWV), may also have originated in East Asian honey bee populations. We use a large-scale survey of apiaries across China to investigate the prevalence and seasonality of DWV in managed A. mellifera and A. cerana colonies, showing that DWV-A prevalence was higher in A. mellifera, with a seasonal spike in prevalence in autumn and winter. Using phylogenetic and population genetic approaches, we show that while China and East Asian DWV isolates show comparatively high levels of genetic diversity, these bee populations are not a source for the current global DWV epidemic.

Diverse and variable virus communities in wild plant populations revealed by metagenomic tools.

Wild plant populations may harbour a myriad of unknown viruses. As the majority of research efforts have targeted economically important plant species, the diversity and prevalence of viruses in the wild has remained largely unknown. However, the recent shift towards metagenomics-based sequencing methodologies, especially those targeting small RNAs, is finally enabling virus discovery from wild hosts. Understanding this diversity of potentially pathogenic microbes in the wild can offer insights into the components of natural biodiversity that promotes long-term coexistence between hosts and parasites in nature, and help predict when and where risks of disease emergence are highest. Here, we used small RNA deep sequencing to identify viruses in Plantago lanceolata populations, and to understand the variation in their prevalence and distribution across the Åland Islands, South-West Finland. By subsequent design of PCR primers, we screened the five most common viruses from two sets of P. lanceolata plants: 164 plants collected from 12 populations irrespective of symptoms, and 90 plants collected from five populations showing conspicuous viral symptoms. In addition to the previously reported species Plantago lanceolata latent virus (PlLV), we found four potentially novel virus species belonging to Caulimovirus, Betapartitivirus, Enamovirus, and Closterovirus genera. Our results show that virus prevalence and diversity varied among the sampled host populations. In six of the virus infected populations only a single virus species was detected, while five of the populations supported between two to five of the studied virus species. In 20% of the infected plants, viruses occurred as coinfections. When the relationship between conspicuous viral symptoms and virus infection was investigated, we found that plants showing symptoms were usually infected (84%), but virus infections were also detected from asymptomatic plants (44%). Jointly, these results reveal a diverse virus community with newly developed tools and protocols that offer exciting opportunities for future studies on the eco-evolutionary dynamics of viruses infecting plants in the wild.

Role of Temperature and Coinfection in Mediating Pathogen Life-History Traits.

Understanding processes maintaining variation in pathogen life-history traits is a key challenge in disease biology, and of importance for predicting when and where risks of disease emergence are highest. Pathogens are expected to encounter tremendous levels of variation in their environment – both abiotic and biotic – and this variation may promote maintenance of variation in pathogen populations through space and time. Here, we measure life-history traits of an obligate fungal pathogen at both asexual and sexual stages under both single infection and coinfection along a temperature gradient. We find that temperature had a significant effect on all measured life-history traits while coinfection only had a significant effect on the number of sexual resting structures produced. The effect of temperature on life-history traits was both direct as well as mediated through a genotype-by-temperature interaction. We conclude that pathogen life-history traits vary in their sensitivity to abiotic and biotic variation in the environment.

Are shrimp farmers actual gamblers? An analysis of risk perception and risk management behaviors among shrimp farmers in the Mekong Delta

Shrimp farming is considered a “risky business” and often compared to gambling for farmers. It is associated with a diverse range of risks and uncertainties, including volatile markets, climate variability, and production risks. In order to mitigate the effects of unpredictability farmers may decide on a particular stocking density and adopt different risk management strategies. Aquaculture research has paid little attention to the influence played by the evaluation and selection of different farming practices, risk perceptions associated with shrimp farming, and the farmers' confidence in their own ability to mitigate risk. The objective of this paper is to analyze the case of shrimp farming in Vietnam's Mekong Delta, where different types of shrimp farms (extensive, semi-intensive and intensive) co-exist within the same landscape, to identify the underlying factors driving stocking behavior and the adoption of different risk management strategies.A survey of 250 farms showed that perceptions toward different stocking behaviors (from extensive to intensive) varied according to the species raised (Penaeus monodon or P. vannamei) and the type of farm. At low density, farmers consider P. monodon as more productive and easier to adopt than P. vannamei. Adoption of intensive farming practices for both species is negatively associated with risk of disease emergence. However, expected productivity is not a predictor of adoption of intensive shrimp farming practices. Mediation analysis indicates that risk management strategies are significantly influenced by perceived market risk. The perception of this type of risk is a key predictor of risk management strategies. The farmers' lack of access to efficient market risk mitigation measures reflects inadequate or missing regulations or lack of specific value chain organization to mitigate this type of risk. Using a behavioral approach provides new insight on how farmers manage their farms, address risk and implement risk management strategies. It showed that farmers, unlike actual gamblers, adopt diverse management strategies after carefully evaluating species and stocking density as well as critically assessing different sources of risk.

Helicobacter pullorum: An Emerging Zoonotic Pathogen.

Helicobacter pullorum (H.pullorum) commonly colonizes the gastrointestinal tract of poultry causing gastroenteritis. The bacterium may be transmitted to humans through contaminated meat where it has been associated with colitis and hepatitis. Despite the high prevalence of H. pullorum observed in poultry, little is known about the mechanisms by which this bacterium establishes infection in host and its virulence determinants. In this article we aim to provide an overview of this emerging zoonotic pathogen; its general characteristics, hosts, prevalence, and transmission as well as its pathogenic potential. We also discuss possible control strategies and risk of disease emergence.

The importance of parasite geography and spillover effects for global patterns of host–parasite associations in two invasive species

AbstractAimGeographic spread and range expansion of species into novel environments may merge originally separated species assemblages, yet the possible drivers of geographic heterogeneity in host–parasite associations remain poorly understood. Here, we examine global patterns in the parasite assemblages of two rat species and explore the role of parasite acquisition from local pools of host species.LocationGlobal.MethodsWe compiled a global data set of helminth parasites (n = 241 species) from two rat species (Rattus rattus species complex, R. norvegicus) and, concomitantly, from all other mammal species known to be infected by the same parasites. We used an inverse Bayesian modelling approach to explicitly link species‐level to community‐level infestation probabilities at different geographic scales and alleviate the shortcoming of sampling bias.ResultsPatterns of species richness and turnover of parasites in the two focal rat species revealed clear biogeographic structure with lowest species richness and most distinct assemblages in Madagascar and highest species richness and least distinct assemblages in the Palaearctic region. Parasite species richness and turnover across regions were correlated for the two focal hosts, although they were associated with distinct assemblages within regions. Infection probability of a focal host with any given parasite was clearly related to infection probability of the local species pool of wildlife hosts with that same parasite. Infection probability of other mammal species infected with these parasite species, in turn, decreased with their taxonomic distance to the genus Rattus.Main conclusionsOur study demonstrates the importance of spillover of parasites from local wildlife hosts to invasive rats on global patterns of host–parasite associations. Considering both changes in local pools of host species and the global distributions of parasite and pathogen diversity in consistent model frameworks may therefore advance the forecasting of species‐level infestation patterns and the possible risk of disease emergence from local to global scale.

Population viscosity suppresses disease emergence by preserving local herd immunity.

Animal reservoirs for infectious diseases pose ongoing risks to human populations. In this theory of zoonoses, the introduction event that starts an epidemic is assumed to be independent of all preceding events. However, introductions are often concentrated in communities that bridge the ecological interfaces between reservoirs and the general population. In this paper, we explore how the risks of disease emergence are altered by the aggregation of introduction events within bridge communities. In viscous bridge communities, repeated introductions can elevate the local prevalence of immunity. This local herd immunity can form a barrier reducing the opportunities for disease emergence. In some situations, reducing exposure rates counterintuitively increases the emergence hazards because of off-setting reductions in local immunity. Increases in population mixing can also increase emergence hazards, even when average contact rates are conserved. Our theory of bridge communities may help guide prevention and explain historical emergence events, where disruption of stable economic, political or demographic processes reduced population viscosity at ecological interfaces.

A qualitative assessment tool for the potential of infectious disease emergence and spread

Improved understanding and assessment of the complex factors associated with disease emergence and spread will lead to better management and thus reduction of risk for disease occurrence. Specific biological, ecologic, environmental, and societal factors have been identified that precede emerging infections. Based on these factors, a qualitative tool was developed to assess risk for disease emergence and spread. Within this tool, three separate assessment elements were developed: novel disease evolution, pathways by which a disease agent could be introduced into a country, and domestic spread from the location of introduction or evolution. Risk factors identified for each of the three elements consist of specific descriptions of production practices, consumer demand, trade, health conditions, and environmental conditions, and are categorized as primary or secondary. Using this tool, those factors contributing greatest to risk of disease emergence can be identified and targeted for mitigation. In addition, risk can be monitored over time, focusing on factors that are primary or that have the greatest potential for increasing disease emergence risk.