A qualitative assessment tool for the potential of infectious disease emergence and spread

Abstract

Improved understanding and assessment of the complex factors associated with disease emergence and spread will lead to better management and thus reduction of risk for disease occurrence. Specific biological, ecologic, environmental, and societal factors have been identified that precede emerging infections. Based on these factors, a qualitative tool was developed to assess risk for disease emergence and spread. Within this tool, three separate assessment elements were developed: novel disease evolution, pathways by which a disease agent could be introduced into a country, and domestic spread from the location of introduction or evolution. Risk factors identified for each of the three elements consist of specific descriptions of production practices, consumer demand, trade, health conditions, and environmental conditions, and are categorized as primary or secondary. Using this tool, those factors contributing greatest to risk of disease emergence can be identified and targeted for mitigation. In addition, risk can be monitored over time, focusing on factors that are primary or that have the greatest potential for increasing disease emergence risk.