Project Risk Research Articles

Analysis of the features of passenger transportation projects

In the era of active development of the transport industry, the introduction of digital technologies, the issue of the quality of passenger transportation still remains unresolved, despite the large number of carriers. The general transport system is an integral component of the country's economic development, and therefore research in the field of passenger transport becomes relevant and key aspects in solving the problem of improving the provision of transport services. The authors analyzed the features, main problems and risks of passenger transportation projects. It is noted that the majority of scientific works are devoted to cargo transportation, and those studies related to the field of passenger transportation consider the issue of quality provision of passenger transportation very superficially. The article demonstrates the need to replace traditional forms of project management in the transport sector with modern and progressive ones. Among a number of innovative approaches to management, the authors recommend the implementation of value-oriented management of passenger transportation projects, justifying the fact that value, as a rule, arises only in the process of operating a product, even if a high-quality and efficient system of passenger transportation is the value that will satisfy stakeholders, and primarily passengers. A value-oriented approach to passenger transport projects is determined by the main values that have a certain influence on the success and efficiency of such projects. The main idea is to take into account the needs and expectations of passengers, ensuring comfort, safety and efficiency of transportation. Conclusions were made regarding the need to continue researching value-oriented management in the field of passenger transportation, taking into account the specificity of projects in this field.

ASSESSMENT OF PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT IN SELECTED MINING COMPANIES IN ETHIOPIA

Purpose: This study uses qualitative research to assess the project risk management practices of selected mining companies in Ethiopia. Methodology: The study was qualitative, and data was obtained using purposive sampling methods; the study's sample size was based on 41 respondents working actively on mining projects in Ethiopia. The questionnaires covered the main aspects of risk management, including overall project risk management, risk planning, risk identification, risk analysis, and risk monitoring and controlling practices. Findings: The study's findings indicated the absence of systematic risk management policy or guidelines and no organized standard risk management processes. Moreover, project managers primarily manage risk with their team's support. It was found that with risk identification, risk analysis, monitoring, and controlling processes, mitigation of project risks could have been conducted more proactively. Instead, risks are managed upon occurrence by relying primarily on the subjective judgment of the mining specialists, often project managers. Originality/Value: This research assesses the risk management practices of mining companies in Ethiopia for the first time. Recommendations have also been made for companies to develop their risk management knowledge through training and exposure to international practices. This approach will slowly build a systematic approach to risk management practices in the Ethiopian setting. The findings of this article also indicated the need for more research as few papers have been published on mining risks globally, and none have been published in Ethiopia’s context.

Responsible automatically processable regulation

AbstractDriven by the increasing availability and deployment of ubiquitous computing technologies across our private and professional lives, implementations of automatically processable regulation (APR) have evolved over the past decade from academic projects to real-world implementations by states and companies. There are now pressing issues that such encoded regulation brings about for citizens and society, and strategies to mitigate these issues are required. However, comprehensive yet practically operationalizable frameworks to navigate the complex interactions and evaluate the risks of projects that implement APR are not available today. In this paper, and based on related work as well as our own experiences, we propose a framework to support the conceptualization, implementation, and application of responsible APR. Our contribution is twofold: we provide a holistic characterization of what responsible APR means; and we provide support to operationalize this in concrete projects, in the form of leading questions, examples, and mitigation strategies. We thereby provide a scientifically backed yet practically applicable way to guide researchers, sponsors, implementers, and regulators toward better outcomes of APR for users and society.

Financial Calculation Problems and Countermeasure Analysis of Large-Scale Engineering Construction Projects

The financial aspects of large-scale engineering construction projects profoundly influence their success. Strengthening cost control and establishing a scientific financial evaluation system can enhance the project’s economic benefits, minimize unnecessary costs, and provide decision-makers with a robust financial foundation. Additionally, implementing an effective cash flow control mechanism and conducting a comprehensive assessment of potential project risks can ensure financial stability and mitigate the risk of fund shortages. Developing a practical and feasible fundraising plan, along with stringent fund management practices, can prevent fund wastage and optimize fund utilization efficiency. These measures not only facilitate smooth project progression and improve project management efficiency but also enhance the project’s economic and social outcomes.

Integrating Artificial Intelligence in Construction Management: Improving Project Efficiency and Cost-effectiveness

The construction industry faces challenges such as project complexity, delays, and communication issues. Leveraging AI, particularly through data analysis, predictive analytics, and machine learning, addresses these challenges by optimizing project planning, scheduling, and risk management. This paper outlines strategies for AI integration, including data collection, machine learning algorithms, and cloud computing. Case studies highlight successful implementations, showcasing benefits such as increased efficiency, cost savings, and improved safety. However, challenges like data security and workforce acceptance must be considered. The abstract concludes by discussing future trends and encouraging the construction industry to embrace AI for enhanced project outcomes.

Risky Business: Data-At-Risk in a Dynamic and Evolving Multidisciplinary Research Environment

At-risk data is an unfortunate research reality and can be present in all data formats in a range of research disciplines. This is defined as data that are at risk of loss due to various factors, including deterioration of the media, lack of accompanying documentation and data that exists in non-digital formats, which are often irreplaceable. Continued access to older data has a range of benefits. The factors that place valuable data at risk are therefore a cause for concern. This paper reports on a multi-method case study, comprising a survey and interviews. A web-based questionnaire was distributed to all research group leaders based at a leading South African research institute. This was followed by one-on-one interviews that were held with a sub-section of the same group of researchers. The combined findings of the two methods enabled a picture to be formed regarding factors that jeopardise research data, data rescue obstacles that the researchers encountered and the state of data rescue at the institute. Several recommendations and strategies are put forward to address identified risk factors and challenges. Suggestions include the launch of a data rescue project, awareness training around data at risk, involving the institute’s library and information services (LIS) section in data rescue and launching continued efforts to acquire a dedicated institutional data repository. It is also important to ensure that the scope of project risk management includes data considerations. The combined implementation of recommendations is anticipated to ensure the accessibility and usability of older at-risk data and reduce the chances of current and future data becoming compromised.

Can ChatGPT exceed humans in construction project risk management?

PurposeThe objective of this research is to investigate the capabilities of the ChatGPT GPT-4 model, a form of artificial intelligence (AI), in comparison to human experts in the context of construction project risk management.Design/methodology/approachEmploying a mixed-methods approach, the study draws a qualitative and quantitative comparison between 16 human risk management experts from Finnish construction companies and the ChatGPT AI model utilizing anonymous peer reviews. It focuses primarily on the areas of risk identification, analysis, and control.FindingsChatGPT has demonstrated a superior ability to generate comprehensive risk management plans, with its quantitative scores significantly surpassing the human average. Nonetheless, the AI model's strategies are found to lack practicality and specificity, areas where human expertise excels.Originality/valueThis study marks a significant advancement in construction project risk management research by conducting a pioneering blind-review study that assesses the capabilities of the advanced AI model, GPT-4, against those of human experts. Emphasizing the evolution from earlier GPT models, this research not only underscores the innovative application of ChatGPT-4 but also the critical role of anonymized peer evaluations in enhancing the objectivity of findings. It illuminates the synergistic potential of AI and human expertise, advocating for a collaborative model where AI serves as an augmentative tool, thereby optimizing human performance in identifying and managing risks.

The Phenomenon of Informal Workers in Housing Projects During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic influenced alterations in the real estate market. Since the pandemic, housing development in Indonesia has been negatively impacted, especially labor, which was crucial to the success of housing development. In addition, most workers in housing developments are informal workers who behave differently than formal or permanent workers. This study aimed to examine the phenomena of informal workers in housing developments during the COVID-19 pandemic using qualitative phenomenological approaches. Ten informal worker informants, five project supervisor in-formants, and two housing developer informants were chosen for in-depth interviews based on a preset criteria. In housing construction projects, implementing the health protocol and compliance with Occupational Health and Safety rules increased the awareness of informal workers. The fact that informal laborers prioritize health and safety during the COVID-19 outbreak is encouraging for building developers. Thus, the risk of housing construction projects decreases, and it is hoped that the government’s program to build one million homes will be successful. In addition, the government can create incentive-related policies for informal employees who implemented the health protocol during the COVID-19 outbreak.
 Keywords: COVID-19, health and safety, housing project, informal workers

Abstract 4332: Isoform-level transcriptome-wide analyses identify extensive genetic mechanisms for breast cancer risk undetectable on the gene-level

Abstract Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over 170 genetic variants associated with breast cancer risk. Integrative methods, like colocalization and transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS), can identify potential biological mediators for genetic associations but, to date, have only contextualized a fraction of GWAS loci. This reduced discovery is due to an overreliance on reference transcriptomic panels of total gene expression, which ignore widespread alternative splicing that gives rise to multiple transcript-isoforms of the same gene with differing effects on tumorigenesis and progression. However, integrating highly correlated transcript-isoforms with phenotypic associations from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) requires methodological innovations.Here, we first introduce isoTWAS, a multivariate, machine learning method to integrate genetics, isoform-level expression, and phenotypic associations in a step-wise testing framework, and present its advantages over traditional gene-level methods.We then apply isoTWAS to multiomic data from non-cancerous breast samples from the Genotype-Tissue Expression Project (GTEx) and breast cancer risk GWAS summary statistics from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. In total, we generated strong predictive models for 70,816 isoforms across 12,103 genes and estimated isoform associations for overall and subtype-specific breast cancer risk. We observed 570 associated isoforms across 384 unique genes (compared to 141 associated genes out of 14,613 genes tested in a gene-level TWAS with the same GWAS) at FDR and FWER-corrected P < 0.05. Critically, isoTWAS prioritized isoform associations within 1 Megabase of 66 independent GWAS-significant loci compared to 22 from gene-level TWAS. Of these isoforms within 1 Megabase of a GWAS locus, 19 associated isoforms had a significantly associated risk variant within the gene body. Of note, we find a negative association between the ESR1 isoform ENST00000488573 and overall breast cancer risk (P = 3.35 x 10-9). Previous studies using breast tissue have not prioritized ESR1 expression as a potential mediator, despite strong SNP associations at this locus. We are currently updating transcriptomic annotations using long-read RNA-sequencing data to improve the precision and specificity of GTEx isoform-level quantifications. We will then expand our isoTWAS analysis to other related tissues (connective, adipose, and immune-related tissues) to identify causal susceptibility transcripts for overall and subtype-specific risk. Our study underscores the wealth of information remaining in bulk RNA-seq datasets that sophisticated methods like isoTWAS can leverage to identify genetic risk mechanisms for breast cancer that is missed with traditional gene-centric measurements and methods. Citation Format: Arjun Bhattacharya, Yung-Han Chang, Bogdan Pasaniuc, Sara Lindstroem. Isoform-level transcriptome-wide analyses identify extensive genetic mechanisms for breast cancer risk undetectable on the gene-level [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 4332.

Systemic Risks of Financial Management in the International Projects: Global Investments and Financial Management as a Component of National Security

"The article attempts to investigate the landscape of today global financial system and instabilities observed in it. Special emphasis is placed on geopolitical factors determining disturbances and risks for financial security of the state as a crucial part of national security. It is shown that, due to rapidly growing action of geopolitics as non-random influence factor, systemic risks in the international projects are acquiring very complex and multifaceted nature, and global investments and financial management are among the most important components of national security."

Project Risk Management for the Repair and Upgrade of Nhi Thien Duong 1 Bridge, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

No project is without risks, especially in the construction industry, which harbors numerous potential pitfalls. Some risks may occur with a low probability but can have a significant impact, while others may manifest repeatedly across various projects. Negative risks, when realized, result in losses that affect the project's objectives. Meanwhile, project participants aspire to capitalize on opportunities presented by positive risks. Therefore, identifying risks, elucidating risk management methods, and formulating risk response strategies for construction projects are crucial to ensure their success. Through methods such as analysis, synthesis, comparison, and reference, this article identifies risks associated with the repair and upgrade project of the Nhi Thien Duong 1 Bridge in Ho Chi Minh City. Additionally, it proposes a set of risk response solutions from the investor's perspective in terms of construction investment management.

Project Risk Management: modern trends and effective practices

The article is devoted to the management of project risks, with the aim of their timely detection and identification, which in turn will ensure the successful implementation of the project and its completion. Special attention is paid to the stages of project risk management and analysis of methods aimed at minimizing and avoiding project risks.
 The most modern and well-known methods include such methods as: risk avoidance; insurance; self-insurance; risk financing; diversification; risk taking; risk limitation; risk distribution and risk prevention, the complex application of which will ensure the successful implementation of the project and protect the project from the influence of destabilizing external and internal factors.

Holistic Environmental Risk Index for Oil and Gas Industry in Colombia

Risk management for technological hazards mainly focuses on the consequences for human lives. Although technological risk analysis evaluates environmental vulnerability, it does not reflect the consequences of environmentally exposed elements. This paper’s objective is to propose a conceptual framework and create a multidisciplinary evaluation model for environmental risk analysis in the oil and gas industry. A holistic assessment was carried out based on probabilistic risk analysis methodologies to obtain a holistic environmental risk index, HERi. Moncho’s Equation was adapted by combining ecological risk, ER, and an aggravating coefficient, F. Transformation functions were utilized to represent the risk probability distributions. The results from the holistic environment risk index were standardized in a sigmoidal function using the ALARP criteria. Finally, the methodology was applied in two case studies in Colombia, comparing the results with an alternative model. This study found that Colombian armed conflict is a key factor that increases environmental risk in oil and gas projects. The proposed methodology takes a holistic approach by integrating socioeconomic factors and resilience considerations into the risk assessment process. This approach provides a more comprehensive understanding of the environmental risks associated with oil and gas projects in Colombia and promotes more effective sustainable management actions.

Risk Perception-Based Project Contingency Management Framework

Project risk management (PRM) involves identifying risks, assessing their impact, and developing a contingency plan. A structured contingency management (CM) approach prevents subjective biases in analyzing risks and developing responses. Previous studies have either focused on improving the accuracy of risk estimates or analyzed, from a qualitative perspective, the relationships between perceived risk and project performance. This study aimed to improve PRM by providing a risk-perception-based contingency management framework (CMF). The CMF guides contingency depletion based on two short- and long-term cost overrun indicators and their respective thresholds. Thresholds and the initial contingency reserve amount are determined by applying the Monte Carlo method to a stochastic, discrete-event, finite-horizon, dynamic project simulation model. The study developed the CMF through a structured approach, validating the simulation model on eight specific project configurations. The results prove that the framework can be applied to any project, shaping the risk response strategy. This study contributes to PRM by explaining the relationships between risk perception and risk responses and providing a prescriptive CM tool.

‘Lying with numbers’ in international arbitration against states

Abstract Recent international arbitration cases, especially P&ID v Nigeria, have highlighted how easy it is for claimants—whether in treaty-based Investor–State Dispute Settlement or commercial arbitration—to advance immense claims grounded on essentially no evidence against state respondents. This largely reflects the readiness of many quantum experts to engage in the practice which Martin Wachs called ‘lying with numbers’ in order to misrepresent the execution risks of speculative unbuilt projects in a manner that is radically at odds with empirical data regarding such execution risks, which is exacerbated by the ignorance of many arbitrators about business economics and discounted cash flow valuation. This situation is unlikely to improve, and overall standards of candour in valuation in international arbitration will keep going down as the system will keep rewarding the act of cloaking advocacy in the guise of scientific or technical rationality in order to ‘lie with numbers’.

Impact of unexpected conditions on construction cost forecasting performance: evidence from Europe

In order to prepare proper budgets, practitioners endeavor to forecast future cost fluctuations. In recent years, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war have caused cost overruns in most construction projects, and there has been no effort to analyze the effects of such situations on cost forecasting performances. This paper aims to investigate the impact of unexpected conditions, such as pandemics and wars, on the construction cost forecasting performances of widely used univariate time series models. For this purpose, statistical forecasting models and two widely used machine learning techniques are employed for the construction cost forecasting of nine European economies in two scenarios: a stable period (2017–2020) and a fluctuating period (2020–2023). The results showed that the success of the models varied by region and period. Unexpected global conditions cause significant errors, especially in the medium and long term. There are significant increases in forecast errors between stable and fluctuating periods. This study provides comprehensive experimental results to determine the cost-forecasting risks of construction projects under unexpected global conditions. The investigation is limited to the European economies, which are mostly developed countries with low inflation rates. Therefore, the results should also be validated in underdeveloped and developing countries.

LEVERAGING PROJECT MANAGEMENT TOOLS FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN HVAC OPERATIONS: A PATH TO CLIMATE RESILIENCE

Efficient management of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems is paramount for mitigating energy consumption and enhancing climate resilience in modern infrastructure. This review explores the significance of leveraging project management tools to optimize energy efficiency within HVAC operations, thus fostering a pathway towards climate resilience. The integration of project management methodologies offers a systematic approach to address challenges associated with energy consumption in HVAC systems, thereby facilitating informed decision-making processes. Firstly, the review delves into the pressing need for energy conservation in HVAC operations amidst escalating concerns over climate change and its adverse impacts. The imperative to minimize energy consumption in buildings, particularly through HVAC systems, is highlighted as a pivotal step towards achieving climate resilience and sustainability goals. Subsequently, the review outlines the role of project management tools in orchestrating effective strategies to enhance energy efficiency within HVAC operations. By employing techniques such as project scheduling, risk management, and resource allocation, project managers can streamline the implementation of energy-efficient measures, thereby optimizing HVAC system performance and reducing carbon emissions. Moreover, the review underscores the importance of data analytics and technological advancements in augmenting the efficacy of project management tools for energy efficiency in HVAC operations. Leveraging real-time data monitoring, predictive analytics, and IoT-enabled devices enables proactive maintenance and continuous optimization of HVAC systems, thereby maximizing energy savings and bolstering climate resilience. Furthermore, the review elucidates the potential benefits and challenges associated with the adoption of project management tools for energy efficiency in HVAC operations. While improved cost-effectiveness, environmental sustainability, and operational performance emerge as primary benefits, challenges such as initial investment costs, technological complexities, and organizational inertia necessitate careful consideration. This review advocates for the integration of project management tools as a viable approach to foster energy efficiency in HVAC operations, thereby paving the way towards enhanced climate resilience and sustainability in built environments. By embracing innovative methodologies and technological solutions, stakeholders can mitigate energy consumption, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and fortify infrastructure against the impacts of climate change.
 Keywords: HVAC, Climate Resilience, Project Management, Energy, Review.

THE ROLE OF AGILE PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN DRIVING INNOVATION IN ENERGY-EFFICIENT HVAC SOLUTIONS

This review delves into the significance of Agile Project Management (APM) in fostering innovation within the realm of energy-efficient Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) solutions. As the global focus intensifies on sustainability and energy conservation, the HVAC industry stands at the forefront of addressing environmental challenges through innovative technologies. Agile methodologies, originally developed for software development, have transcended their conventional domains to revolutionize project management across various industries. This review explores how the application of Agile principles can catalyze innovation in energy-efficient HVAC solutions. Firstly, it delineates the core tenets of Agile Project Management, emphasizing iterative development, adaptive planning, and customer collaboration. By prioritizing flexibility and responsiveness to change, Agile methodologies empower HVAC project teams to swiftly adapt to evolving customer needs and technological advancements. This agility is particularly crucial in the HVAC sector, where rapid technological innovations necessitate quick iterations and constant feedback loops to refine energy-efficient solutions. Furthermore, the review elucidates how Agile frameworks such as Scrum and Kanban facilitate cross-functional collaboration and enhance communication within HVAC project teams. By fostering a collaborative environment that encourages transparency and knowledge sharing, Agile methodologies cultivate a culture of innovation wherein team members can experiment with novel ideas and swiftly pivot based on market feedback. Moreover, this review underscores the role of Agile Project Management in mitigating risks associated with innovation in energy-efficient HVAC solutions. Through frequent iterations and incremental delivery, Agile methodologies enable HVAC project teams to identify potential bottlenecks and address them proactively, thereby reducing project risks and enhancing overall project success rates. This review highlights the transformative potential of Agile Project Management in driving innovation within the energy-efficient HVAC industry. By embracing Agile methodologies, HVAC project teams can navigate the complexities of innovation more effectively, accelerate time-to-market for energy-efficient solutions, and ultimately contribute to the sustainable transformation of the HVAC sector.
 Keywords: Agile, Project Management, Innovation, Energy-Efficient, HVAC, Review.

CONCEPTUAL DEVELOPMENT AND FINANCIAL ANALYTICS FOR STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS, FOCUSING ON ASSESSING INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND MANAGING RISKS IN SATELLITE PROJECTS

Conceptual development and financial analytics are critical components of strategic decision-making in the telecommunications industry, particularly in assessing investment opportunities and managing risks in satellite projects. This Review provides an overview of the key concepts and approaches used in this context. In the telecommunications sector, especially in satellite projects, conceptual development involves the creation and refinement of strategic plans and objectives. This process includes identifying market opportunities, defining project goals, and developing strategies to achieve them. Financial analytics, on the other hand, involves the use of financial data and models to evaluate the financial viability of investment opportunities and assess the potential risks. One of the key challenges in conceptual development and financial analytics for satellite projects is the complexity and uncertainty inherent in the telecommunications industry. Satellite projects often require significant upfront investment and have long lead times, making it essential to carefully evaluate the financial and strategic implications of such investments. To address these challenges, telecommunications companies use a range of tools and approaches. These include financial modeling, scenario analysis, and risk management techniques. Financial modeling involves creating mathematical models to simulate different investment scenarios and assess their financial impact. Scenario analysis involves evaluating the potential outcomes of different scenarios and identifying key drivers of financial performance. Risk management techniques involve identifying and mitigating potential risks associated with satellite projects, such as regulatory changes, technological obsolescence, and competitive pressures. Overall, conceptual development and financial analytics play a crucial role in strategic decision-making in the telecommunications industry, especially in satellite projects. By using these approaches, companies can assess investment opportunities, manage risks, and make informed decisions that align with their strategic objectives.
 Keywords: Financia Analytics, Strategic, Decision-Making, Telecommunications, Development.

Algorithm of innovation project risk management

Aim. To develop a risk management algorithm that can be used in risk management of innovations.Objectives. On the basis of the current international standards of risk management and scientific publications to study the existing practice of risk management, highlighting the main elements of the risk management process into a single generalized risk management algorithm; based on the results of the first task, as well as taking into account the identified features of the process of innovation implementation, to develop an algorithm for risk management of innovation projects.Methods. The work is based on the study of scientific publications in the field of risk management and analysis of international standards on risk management in order to adapt them to the peculiarities of innovation management.Results. The problem of risk management of innovation projects is one of the most difficult in project management because of the significant degree of uncertainty inherent in innovation. The article reflects the problem of investors’ acceptance of increased risk during the realization of an innovation project. The peculiarity of risk management of innovations is the need to accept increased risk, and in return the opportunity to present a new product or technology to the market. Taking into account the considered peculiarities, an algorithmic approach to risk management of innovation projects is given. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of applying the developed algorithm of innovation project risk management by economic entities, which will improve the quality of corporate risk management and increase the efficiency of resource utilization. The authors point out the necessity of selecting a project with positive NPV (discounted cash flow, DCF) and accepting the increased risk of the innovation project in the process of innovation management.Conclusions. The authors have created a comprehensive methodological approach to innovation project risk management in the form of a sequence of actions algorithm. The purpose of its application is to increase the efficiency of risk management and to achieve a successful result of innovation implementation.