Risk Reduction Policies Research Articles

Wildfire Risk Levels at the Local Scale: Assessing the Relative Influence of Hazard, Exposure, and Social Vulnerability

Wildfire risk assessment provides important tools to fire management, by analysing and aggregating information regarding multiple, interactive dimensions. The three main risk dimensions hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the latter considered in its social dimension, were quantified separately at the local scale for 972 civil parishes in central mainland Portugal and integrated into a wildfire risk index. The importance of each component in the level of risk varied, as assessed by a cluster analysis that established five different groups of parishes, each with a specific profile regarding the relative importance of each dimension. The highest values of wildfire risk are concentrated in the centre-south sector of the study area, with high-risk parishes also dispersed in the northeast. Wildfire risk level is dominated by the hazard component in 52% of the parishes, although with contrasting levels of magnitude. Exposure and social vulnerability dominate together in 32% of the parishes, with the latter being the main risk driver in only 17%. The proposed methodology allows for an integrated, multilevel assessment of wildfire risk, facilitating the effective allocation of resources and the adjustment of risk reduction policies to the specific reality in each parish that results from distinct combinations of the wildfire risk dimensions.

Hydrological and Geological Analysis of Cohesive Soil and its Potential Risk in Middle Mountain Region: A Case Study of Naunuko Pahiro along Madi River, Kaski, Nepal

Middle Mountain region of Nepal is most often vulnerable in hydrological and geological aspect. Rainfall pattern, runoff, infiltration rate, different losses and soil parameters of cohesive soil (Silty clay) along with slope of slide (i) and depth of slide (H), factor of safety (F.O.S) along with probabilistic approach (correlation) are decisive factors pertaining to re-occurrence of landslide. Rainfall intensity, catchment area (A), runoff coefficient plays vital role in the estimation of flood frequency over a various period of time (25 years, 50 years and 100 years) respectively. The civil engineering structures along with middle mountain river are always vulnerable. Hence, its risk identification is prerequisite which is encompasses in the study. This study include hydrological and geological analysis of Taprang landslide (Naunuko Pahiro) which prevail at middle mountain region at an elevation ranging from 937m to 1047m of Kaski district, Gandaki Provenance, Nepal. Soil test data, rainfall data, probability and statistical approach along with different empirical formulas are used to analyse hydrological and geological hazard. Factor of safety (F.O.S) is calculated on the basis of altering value of slope of slide (i) and depth of slide (H) from slope ranging 50° to 70°. With increase depth of slide greater than 10m, F.O.S. is less than one which is unstable. The slope stability found to be critical at depth of slide10m with 50° slopes.Higher ground water table, higher rate of run-off with an average rainfall 446.50cm and higher shear stress contribute to risk of landslide along with increase discharge at down- stream of landslide with possibility of flood hazard at Madi river bank. The result would give insight on nature of landslide and flood discharge which could support Madi Village Municipality, as well as other rural Municipality of middle mountain region of almost same elevation consisting of cohesive (Silty Clay) soil for shaping disaster risk reduction policies and strategies such that death and injuries as well as impact on civil engineering structures can be minimized.

Level of Awareness on Disaster Risk Preparedness in Informal Settlements of Nyeri Town, Nyeri County, Kenya.

Purpose: The main objective of this study was to assess level of awareness on disaster risk preparedness in informal settlements of Nyeri town, Nyeri County, Kenya. To achieve this, the study was guided by two specific objectives: to establish the level of awareness on the types of disasters that can affect the informal settlement residents in Nyeri town and to determine the level of awareness on the existence of disaster risk reduction policies to curb disasters among the people living in informal settlements of Nyeri town.
 Methodology: The study adopted a descriptive research design using primary data collected through a structured questionnaire. The population for this study was 384 respondents of the four settlements of Nyeri town, that is, Majengo Witemere Ngangarithi,mathari and Ruring’u Muslim village.
 Results: The study found out that, majority of the respondents 93.0% was aware of the disasters that can affect them in their area of residents. The study further established that, majority of the residents 196 (51.0%) was aware of the existence of disaster risk reduction policies as compared to 49.0% who were not aware of any disaster risk reduction policy. The results also showed that there was a significant association between the level of education of the respondents and the level of awareness of the disaster that could affect them [X2 (3) = 14.848, p-value =0.002<0.05] and the religions of the respondents and the level of awareness of the disaster that could affect them [X2 (2) = 7.090, p-value =0.029<0.05]. The results however indicated that, there was no significant association between the level of awareness of the disaster that could affect the respondents with the area of residents, age of the respondents and their occupation as given by the p-values of 0.393, 0.485 and 0.390 respectively. The study further established that, there was a significant association between the education level of the respondents and the level of awareness of any policy rule concerning with disaster risk reduction [X2 (3) = 8.056, p-value =0.045<0.05], and the religions of the respondents and the level of awareness of any policy rule concerning with disaster risk reduction [X2 (2) = 10.031, p-value =0.007<0.05].
 Unique Contribution to Theory, Policy and Practice: It was concluded that Risk assessment as a step for successful disaster reduction measures will ensure that the community members are aware of the possible hazards. National and County government should incorporate the national and international policies and guidelines in their policy. The Government should be keen on learning on previous disasters that have affected other informal settlements and other parts of the country by having disaster management well kwon by the communities living in informal sectors. The researcher further recommends to the scholars to consider research on Disaster risk preparedness as the strategy of counties development agenda and Social and economic potentials that the County Governments can tap in informal settlements.

Stakeholders’ Perceptions of Nature-Based Solutions for Hurricane Risk Reduction Policies in the Mexican Caribbean

Nature-based solutions (NbSs) have long recognized the value of coastal and marine ecosystem management and associated ecosystem services as useful tools for climate change mitigation (e.g., blue carbon) and adaptation (e.g., coastal protection against flooding and storm surges). However, NbSs remain poorly acknowledged and mostly absent from coastal planning for disaster risk reduction policies in the Caribbean, as well as from ex-post disaster reconstruction funds. With the increasing frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the region, NbSs are now more needed than ever. Taking Mexico as a representative case study for the wider Caribbean, we here seek to identify and analyze the barriers and opportunities perceived by relevant stakeholders for mainstreaming coastal-marine NbSs into coastal management and disaster risk reduction policies (e.g., mangroves as green infrastructure) to protect coastal societies and national economies against hurricanes. We conduct semi-structured, in-depth interviews with twenty stakeholders covering academic, governmental, tourism, NGO, coastal planning, and financial domains. Among the twenty-three identified barriers, governance, institutional, financial, and human-capacity aspects are the most dominant perceptions behind the current lack of NbS implementation. Future action for the policy integration of NbSs requires widespread political will and better quantification of both the provision of ecosystem services and their economic benefits under conventional markets.

Macroeconomic co-benefits of DRR investment: assessment using the Dynamic Model of Multi-hazard Mitigation CoBenefits (DYNAMMICs) model

PurposeThe authors present a dynamic macroeconomic model for assessment of disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies under multiple hazards. The model can be used to analyze and compare various potential policies in terms of their economic consequences. The decomposition of these effects into multiple benefits helps policy makers and other stakeholders better understand the ex ante and ex-post advantages of DRR investments. The purpose of this paper is to address these issues.Design/methodology/approachA dynamic real business cycle model is at the core of this research. In the model multiple natural hazards modeled stochastically cause shocks to the economy. Economic outcomes, most importantly, output can be assessed before and after disasters and under various DRR policies. The decomposition of benefits aims to quantify the concept of triple dividends.FindingsIn case study applications in Tanzania and Zambia, the authors find that investments into physical infrastructure and risk transfer instruments generate a variety of benefits even in the absence of disaster. A land use restriction with planned relocation for example reduces output in the short run but in the long run increases it. Overall, policy effects of various DRR interventions evolve in a nonmonotonic manner and should be evaluated over a long period of time using dynamic simulation.Originality/valueThe novelty of this study lies in the economic quantification of multiple benefits described in the triple dividends literature. This helps comparing ex ante, ex-post and volatility-related economic effects of multiple disasters and related physical and financial DRR investment options. As observed in the case studies, the model can also identify overlooked temporal heterogeneity of co-benefits of DRR investments.

Principles and practice: Towards disaster risk reduction in New South Wales, Australia

By ratifying the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR), the Australian Government has accepted the need to mainstream disaster risk reduction (DRR) principles into policy and procedures. This research explores the extent to which this rhetoric has been actioned, using local-government policy as an indicator. The rationale for this approach is that evidence of DRR integration should be observable in recovery procedures related to the aftermath of disasters, which could extend over a period of years and require transformational changes. Using the targets and priorities of the SFDRR, a meta-synthesis of research conducted since its ratification was used to create a conceptual framework of DRR principles and practices. This framework was then used to conduct a policy analysis of the New South Wales Local Disaster Recovery Plan (NSWLDRP) template for alignment/non-alignment to the principles of the SFDRR, with the intention of indicating where future efforts in policy development should be directed.The analysis revealed gaps in intent between the NSWLDRP template and DRR principles and practices. While some underlying concepts of DRR are incorporated into the plan, such as vulnerability assessments and communication tools, fundamental risk reduction policies, including prevention, mitigation and participatory mechanisms are largely absent. This gap between the principles of the SFDRR and its limited application at the local level in NSW highlights the need for greater mainstreaming of DRR principles in both State and Federal Government frameworks since they direct both local disaster management arrangements and subsequent ongoing community development. The benefits of this includes reduced load on emergency services during extreme events, and increased community resilience after them, including reduced reconstruction and less disruption to community productivity in their aftermath.

The conditions of inclusion: Interrogating the rhetoric of global Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) policy texts on knowledge integration and inclusion

‘Knowledge-building’ has long been regarded as a keystone strategy in strengthening communities' capacities, resilience, and adaptation strategies against hazards and disasters. From technoscientific discourses, the approach to knowledge-building gradually shifted towards a more integrative stance, this time involving place-based knowledges (i.e., local, indigenous, traditional) in international Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) frameworks. On the one hand, scholars indicate that DRR policies cemented an equitable and inclusive approach to knowledge-building. On the other, several observers noted that the lack of concrete examples of knowledge integration may indicate that the stipulations of global policies were but empty rhetoric. Taking into account these divergent views, I employed a transversal rhetorical analysis to understand how key global texts for disaster management produced over four decades of policymaking epicycles regard, categorise, and deploy ‘knowledge’. By centring the analysis on metaphors as persuasive texts in global DRR policies, this article provides a third perspective about knowledge-building to argue that the rhetoric mirrored, rather than deflected or obscured, the reality of marginal knowledge integration. The article further illustrates how knowledge integration and inclusion meant the relegation of place-based knowledges to the category of ‘accessories’ to the techno-managerial features of DRR approaches.

Machine Learning for Enhanced Regional Seismic Risk Assessments

The ability to conduct accurate regional seismic risk assessments is key to informing a risk-reduction policy and fostering community resilience. This paper presents a machine learning-based framework to predict a building’s postearthquake damage state using structural properties and ground motion intensity measures as model inputs. The machine learning techniques assessed, namely, logistic regression, k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, random forest, AdaBoost, and gradient boosting, are trained using a dataset of nonlinear response history analysis results from 36 detailed structural models of modern reinforced concrete shear wall buildings ranging from four to 24 stories and subjected to approximately 500 ground motion records with a range of shaking intensities. The results indicate that the gradient boosting classifier is the most efficient algorithm by achieving a prediction success (F1-score) of 87%. The proposed framework also leverages synthetic data samples to support the prediction of severe damage state instances, that is, collapse. The percentage of observed collapse cases correctly classified by the gradient boosting algorithm is increased from 76% to 93% when synthetic data are also used for training. The framework is implemented in a portfolio of reinforced concrete shear wall buildings across the Metro Seattle region to quantify earthquake-induced damage and collapse risk. The framework shows great potential for enhancing regional seismic risk assessments by leveraging datasets of detailed nonlinear response history analysis results.

A simple method for landslide risk assessment in the Rivière Aux Vases basin, Quebec, Canada

This research offers a simple approach for landslide risk assessment on a basin-scale in the Quebec Province of Canada, where landslides are common. Landslide inventory and distribution mapping are developed for the Aux Vases Watershed, the most landslide-affected area in the Saguenay region, for a detailed landslide hazard and risk assessment process. The study uses publicly available data from Google Earth images, published literature, Government data sources for topographic maps and landuse information, as well as the 2016 Census Profile of the Saguenay region of Quebec. ArcGIS software is used for spatial data processing and analyzing datasets to develop maps of landslide susceptibility, vulnerability, and lack of coping capacity, and a landslide risk map of the Aux Vases Watershed was developed. Landslide risk assessment is critical for minimizing the loss of life and property from potential landslides in the study area and empowers communities with useful information so they can make informed decisions to mitigate the risk and build coping capacities. In addition, risk reduction policies and strategies, public safety, and future development planning initiatives will benefit from this research.

Landslide Hazard Assessment and Distribution Mapping: A Case from Triveni Rural Municipality, Nepal

An application of GIS for landslide hazard assessment using multivariate statistical analysis, mapping, and the evaluation of the hazard maps is crucial for disaster risk reduction. Landslides are the rapid downward movement of a mass of rock, earth or artificial fill to the slope. The study was conducted the Khara of Triveni Rural municipality of Rukum West district and it covers three wards (3, 4 & 5) of rural municipality covering the total area of about 33.52 square kilometres located in the Karnali province of Nepal which is under the pressure of high road construction activities. Data used to construct the landslide distribution map and hazard assessments were obtained from the direct field, and mapping using GIS. More data sources and verifications were made from the rural municipality, published articles and journals, topographical and geological maps, google images and aerial photographs and other digital sources. To determine the factors and classes influencing land sliding, the layers of topographic factors derived from a digital elevation model, geology, and land use/land covers were analyzed and the results were used for landslide distribution mapping and hazard analyses. From the landslide inventory of more than 200 landslides that were occurred during the last five years since 2015, the landslide distribution map, landslide-size distribution map and hazard level of sliding graphics were presented. Hazard map of the study area shows 4.34% area lies in the high hazard level, 53.64% on moderate hazard level and 42.02% in low hazard level in the study area. The results would give insights to the landslide distribution in the area that could support rural municipality for shaping disaster risk reduction policies and strategies.

The Political Economy of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Policy: A Review

This paper checks the literature on the political economy of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate policy. It starts by highlighting the need for a better understanding of the political economy of DRR and climate policy in order to design and implement effective policies. It then reviews the existing literature on the political economy of DRR and climate policy, identifying the factors that have been found to influence the design, implementation, and outcomes of DRR and climate policy. Finally, it concludes the implications of this review for future research and policy. The paper argues that further research is needed to improve our understanding of the political economy of DRR and climate policy, and to inform the development of effective policies. Keyword :Adaptation, Mitigation, Climate Policy, Climate Change, Disaster Risk Reduction, Governance, Political Economy, Sustainability.

Institutional conditions for building proactive flood management: Lessons from santa Fe in Argentina

Although national disaster risk reduction policies in Argentina are still incipient and fragmented, the city of Santa Fe managed to adopt flood-risk management strategies after a major flooding in 2007. This involved a shift from reactive measures to a proactive policy approach to manage one of the city's main problems. Employing insights from institutional theory, this paper explores and elaborates on the institutional conditions that enabled policy change in Santa Fe. A qualitative case-study design is used, and the analysis builds on previous empirical studies of Santa Fe, policy documents and in-depth interviews. Three institutional conditions were identified as fundamental contributors to policy change: place identity, policy publics, and practical authority. These conditions were used and developed by the new administration elected after the flooding. This paper argues that the new administration took advantage of the ‘legitimacy vacuum’ of the old administration, following from its passivity and reactive handling of the flooding. The new administration mobilized and strengthened pre-existing institutional conditions, and reconfigured power relations through its practical authority. Instead of a partisan strategy, the new administration expanded agency in terms of a community-based approach (collective action), expert knowledge, and problem-solving skills, which underscores the importance of informal institutions to complement and reinforce formal ones. This article provides lessons for local communities with similar conditions as the city of Santa Fe, showing that local actors can develop proactive disaster risk reduction also in unfavourable national contexts.

Pandemic management requires exposure science.

COVID-19 was first detected in Wuhan, China, on 8.12.2019, and WHO announced it a pandemic on 11.3.2020. No vaccines or medical cures against COVID-19 were available in the first corona year. Instead, different combinations of generic non-pharmaceutical interventions – to slow down the spread of infections via exposure restrictions to ‘flatten the curve’ so that it would not overburden the health care systems, or to suppress the virus to extinction – were applied with varying levels of strictness, duration and success in the Pacific and North Atlantic regions.Due to an old misconception, almost all public health authorities dismissed the possibility that the virus would be transmitted via air. Opportunities to reduce the inhalation exposure – such as wearing effective FFP2/N95 respirators, improving ventilation and indoor air cleaning – were missed, and instead, hands were washed and surfaces disinfected.The fact that aerosols were acknowledged as the main route of COVID-19 transmission in 2021 opened avenues for more efficient and socially less disruptive exposure and risk reduction policies that are discussed and evaluated here, demonstrating that indoor air and exposure sciences are crucial for successful management of pandemics. To effectively apply environmental and personal exposure mitigation measures, exposure science needs to target the human-to-human exposure pathways of the virus.

Coastal vulnerability analysis and RIDIT scoring of socio-economic vulnerability indicators – A case of Jagatsinghpur, Odisha

The study focuses on interpreting climate-induced disaster vulnerability in quantifiable form, caused by tropical cyclones emerging in the Bay of Bengal along the Eastern coast of India. The case of Jagatsinghpur, one of the six coastal districts of the Indian state of Odisha, has been explored for this purpose at a sub-regional level. An inclusive methodology comprising observation, structured questionnaire surveys, and documentation of past occurrences of cyclonic storms was adopted for the research. The selection of indicators was made at both regional and sub-regional (rural) levels. A two-step analysis was done using Coastal Vulnerability Index Model and RIDIT scoring to evaluate the vulnerability along the Jagatsinghpur coastline, and rank socio-economic vulnerability indicators based on the perception of local inhabitants of the selected Tarasahi village. The coast of Jagatsinghpur is not a stable one and is undergoing fast rates of erosion and accretion, with variation in vulnerability levels at different points along the coastline. By analyzing past disaster management trends and existing conditions, the research outcome provides valuable information that can support future disaster management and risk reduction policies, spanning both proactive and reactive approaches.

Global human exposure to urban riverine floods and storms

AbstractThe world's urban population is soaring, with an increasing number of people exposed to urban natural hazards such as riverine floods and storm surges. The global quantification of their extent is, however, still blurred. The ongoing surge in high‐resolution data allows novel opportunities for quantification of hazards and exposure. Here, we provide a global spatial synthesis of urban populations' exposure to riverine floods and storm surges in 1990 and 2015. Our results reveal that, owing to rapid economic development globally in a large proportion of exposed areas, most of the exposure has shifted from low‐income to middle‐income countries. Asia dominates as a continent. The total growth of human exposure continues, suggesting that disaster risk reduction policies and implementation call for enduring effort.

Seismic Hazardand Spectral Acceleration For Hydro Power Project in Gilgit Baltistan Pakistan

Peak ground acceleration is the maximum ground shaking intensity parameter in geophysics. To prevent the big loss of infrastructure, dam site or multistorey buildings as well as power project due to any seismic hazard, it is essential to mitigate the damages. Seismic hazard analysis for peak ground acceleration was carried out for hydropower project in Gilgit Baltistan to mitigate the effect of seismic hazard. Seismicity and tectonic map was drawn for distribution of seismic events.Study region was divided into seven source zones to rectify the seismic risk reduction assessmement of the region. Regression analysis for freqeuncy magnitude was also carried out using seismicity catalogue. Three distinct ground motion equations were used to predict the value of g with their return period. The actitvity rate analysis of seismic source zones was also done drawn to determine the source contribution. Maximum credible earhquake, operational based earthquake and maximum design earthquake were detremined. According to the ICOLD and seismic risk reduction policy, the values of peak ground acceleration for Phandar hydro power project was 0.59g for maximum credible earthquake, for design basis earthquake g value was 0.311g for and 0.231g foroperational basis earthquake with 475 years of return period at 50% probability of exceedence. Spectral acceleration for 0.1s, 0.2s, 0.5s, 1s and 2s was also computed for horizontal and vertical components. The values of spectral accleeration varied from 0.19g to 1.250g for maximum credible earthquake, 0.019g to 0.700g for design based earthquake and 0.050g to 0.480g for operational based earthquake. The results reveal that the maximum credible earthquake is to ensure safety level and for reliability level, operational based and design based earthquakes can be utilized.

Optimal breast cancer risk reduction policies tailored to personal risk level.

Depending on personal and hereditary factors, each woman has a different risk of developing breast cancer, one of the leading causes of death for women. For women with a high-risk of breast cancer, their risk can be reduced by two main therapeutic approaches: 1) preventive treatments such as hormonal therapies (i.e., tamoxifen, raloxifene, exemestane); or 2) a risk reduction surgery (i.e., mastectomy). Existing national clinical guidelines either fail to incorporate or have limited use of the personal risk of developing breast cancer in their proposed risk reduction strategies. As a result, they do not provide enough resolution on the benefit-risk trade-off of an intervention policy as personal risk changes. In addressing this problem, we develop a discrete-time, finite-horizon Markov decision process (MDP) model with the objective of maximizing the patient's total expected quality-adjusted life years. We find several useful insights some of which contradict the existing national breast cancer risk reduction recommendations. For example, we find that mastectomy is the optimal choice for the border-line high-risk women who are between ages 22 and 38. Additionally, in contrast to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network recommendations, we find that exemestane is a plausible, in fact, the best, option for high-risk postmenopausal women.

Devastating Geohazards and Disaster Risk Management System in Cameroon

Cameroon is vulnerable to natural hazards which are exacerbated by encroachment of the inhabitants into risk zones. When these geohazards occur, they tend to be disastrous in most case leaving the victims desperate. This research is aimed at investigating the devastating geohazards that occurred in Cameroon and evaluate the government response system. Using data was generated through a review of Disaster Risk Reduction literature and policy documents from the government, research institutions, academic publications and internet sources, we were able to present a concise account of the typology and of the functionality of geohazards management systems in Cameroon. The findings reveal that volcanic, landslide and floods are the most devastating geohazards in Cameroon accounting for 27%, 25% and 12% of total deaths respectively. Some of these devasting events include volcanic (Nyos 1986, 1746 deaths and Monoun 1984, 37 deaths), landslides (Limbe 2001, 24 deaths, Magba 2003, 22 deaths, Ngouache 2019, 42 deaths) and floods (Douala 2020, 4 deaths). The frequency of landslide and floods has increase in recent decades and most of the affected are not resilient to these disasters. The Disaster risk management system in Cameroon is active and not proactive and very slow in implementation. The system is highly bureaucratic and not flexible. Critical decisions are taken only at the top level and takes time to reach those to implement in the field consequently. From the finding of this paper it is primordial to empower the councils and create a comprehensive disaster management system in Cameroon, which shall involve the mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery phases.

Psychosocial risks among the healthcare workforce working in COVID services: findings from a cross-sectional study on psychosocial risks

IntroductionPoor management in healthcare can have significant consequences in the workers’ health, performance, and quality of care. Several risks worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic, namely among the workforce caring for patients with suspected/confirmed COVID-19 infection.ObjectivesWe aimed to assess psychosocial risks among a sample of 235 healthcare workers deployed in COVID-19-related services in Portugal’s Lower Alentejo.MethodsParticipants filled out with ten sociodemographic questions and the Euro-Portuguese medium version of the COPSOQ II questionnaire. Data collection occurred February 2021. Tertiles were used to render a traffic light risk categorization. Results were processed with qualitative and quantitative descriptive statistical analysis. To compare groups relative to each outcome, t-tests were used for variables with two categories. Whenever data was not normally distributed, Mann-Whitney tests were used. For variables with more than two groups non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis was applied. Bonferroni correction was also applied, testing each individual hypothesis at the level of significance of αi=0.05/29. A statistically significant difference between two groups did not necessarily yield a different risk colour.ResultsOverall, cognitive demands, emotional demands and influence at work showed the highest risk, while 19 domains showed intermediate risk. The burnout domain showed to be highest among nurses and operational assistants working in the Intensive Care Unit. Several associations between COPSOQ domains and sociodemographic variables are also discussed.ConclusionsAssessment of psychosocial stressors in healthcare units is needed to promote risk reduction policies and workplace reforms. Accessible occupational services, therapeutic and rehabilitative strategies should play a role in improving health hazards in unhealthy workplaces.DisclosureNo significant relationships.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of India's Purba Medinipur-Balasore coastal stretch: A comparative study using empirical models

The 90.20 km coastal stretch extending from India's Subarnarekha estuary (Balasore District, Odisha) to the mouth of the Haldi River (Purba Medinipur, West Bengal) was evaluated. The evaluation was for vulnerability to climate extremes and variabilities (e.g. tropical cyclones, storm surges, and eustatic sea-level rise) resulting in coastal erosion, inundation, salinization and increased biophysical and socio-economic impacts. Coastal vulnerability mapping with respect to coastal hazards was applied to identify and implement risk reduction policies. In order to understand the spatial distribution of physical vulnerability along this coastal stretch, the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) using Gornitz's CVI model and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method were applied. These models were run in ArcGIS ver. 10.5 using six geological parameters viz., elevation, slope, bathymetry, coastal geomorphology, shoreline change, and coastal land use and four physical process variables viz. Mean sea level (MSL), mean tidal range, significant wave height, and storm surge height. Both of the models produced very good results. Based on Gornitz's CVI model, it was found that 13.56% of the coastline is highly vulnerable to these hazards, while the AHP model indicated 11.29% of the coast was at high vulnerability. When both models were simulated the same probable inundation extent of two different storm surge scenarios of wave height, viz. ≤ 3 m and≤5 m, the areas estimated to be affected by the surge were 255.22 and 779.59 sq. km, respectively. The coastal blocks of Nandigram-I, Contai-I, Deshopran, and Bhograi were identified as highly vulnerable due to landward erosion and inundation. The study inferred that the combined effect of cyclonic activities and storm surge along with high tide made the coast highly susceptible. This study could help coastal planners, decision-makers, and administrators to prepare a risk management plan for long-term coastal conservation and management.