Risk Of Severe Acute Pancreatitis Research Articles

The risk of severe acute pancreatitis depending on the genetic predisposition and diet

The aim of the study: to determine the influence of genetic predisposition and diet on the risk of severe acute pancreatitis (АР). Materials and methods. The results of diagnostics and treatment of 547 patients with acute pancreatitis were analyzed, 97 of them had a severe АР. Patients' blood DNA samples were used as research material. Detailed questionnaire on nutrition was carried out, the qualitative and quantitative composition of the food consumed was assessed. Genomic DNA was isolated using the standard PCE method. Genotyping was performed on a MALDI-TOF MassARRAY-4 analyzer. The role of the following polymorphic variants was studied: SPINK1 C>T (rs6580502), PRSS1 C>T (rs10273639), CFTR A>G (rs213950), TNF -308 G>A (rs1800629), IL1B A>G (rs16944), IL5 A>G (rs2069812), IL6 G>C (rs1800795), IL10 T>C (rs1800896), CETP G>A (rs708272) and LPL T>G (rs320). Statistical analysis was performed using SNPStats and Statistica 10.0 software. Results. In our study, we found that carriers of A/A rs2069812 IL5, G/G-G/C rs1800795 IL6 and T/T rs320 LPL genotypes increased the risk of severe acute pancreatitis. Alcohol abuse increases the risk of severe disease in carriers of T/T SPINK1 (rs6580502) and A/A CFTR (rs213950) genotypes. Constant exposure to alimentary risk factor manifested by increased consumption of fatty foods increases the risk in carriers of G/A-A/A rs 16944 IL1B, reduced protein and carbohydrate intake with food - in carriers of G/A-A/A rs2069812 IL5, carbohydrate - in carriers of G/A-A/A rs708272 CETP. Conclusion. Predictive diagnostics plays an important role in the prevention of severe acute pancreatitis, eliminating the effects of risk factors in carriers of genotypes associated with a severe course of the disease will make it possible to achieve positive success in the prevention of AP, to reduce the frequency of complications and the development of its severe course, to reduce mortality.

Therapeutic Plasma Exchange in ICU Patients with Acute Hypertriglyceridemia-Induced Pancreatitis Improves Patient Outcomes

Background: Acute severe pancreatitis is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Hypertriglyceridemia is the third most common cause of acute pancreatitis and higher triglyceride levels increase the risk for severe acute pancreatitis. Plasma exchange is an effective treatment method to lower triglycerides. Our study aimed to investigate the efficiency of plasma exchange as a treatment option for acute hypertriglyceridemia-induced pancreatitis (HTGP), the impact on mortality assessed by the SOFA, SAPS II, BISAP Score, Ranson’s, and Glasgow-Imrie Criteria, as well as the overall length of stay in hospital and ICU. Methods: In this retrospective single-center cohort study, triglycerides before and after plasma exchange were compared. SOFA and SAPS II were taken on ICU admission and at discharge. To further characterize the patient cohort, BISAP Score (on admission), Ranson’s Criteria (on admission and after 48 h), and the Glasgow-Imrie Criteria (48 h after admission) were calculated. Results: The study included 11 patients (91% male; median age 45 years). Triglycerides were reduced from 4,266 ± 3,560.6 to 842 ± 575.9 mg/dL during plasmapheresis (p < 0.001). The median ICU length of stay was 3 ± 4.2 days. In-hospital mortality was 0%. The SOFA score was significantly reduced from 4 ± 3.4 points on admission to 2 ± 2.1 points at discharge (p = 0.017). Triglycerides and cholesterol decreased from 3,126 ± 3,665 to 531 ± 273 mg/dL (p = 0.003) and from 438 ± 137.9 to 222 ± 59.5 mg/dL (p = 0.028), respectively. The BISAP Score on admission was 3 ± 0.5 points, Ranson’s Criteria were 3 ± 1.5 points (48 h after admission, cumulative), and Glasgow-Imrie Criteria 3 ± 1.3 points (48 h after admission). Conclusion: Plasmapheresis is an efficient and safe treatment method for ICU patients with acute HTGP and significantly reduces triglycerides. Furthermore, plasmapheresis significantly improves the clinical outcomes of patients with HTGP.

Predicting the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis has two mortality peaks, which occurs within the first 2 weeks due to organ failure and then weeks or months later as result of multi-organ failure and local complications. Although there have been several clinical and multidisciplinary evaluation measures, imaging tests, and serological tests proposed to forecast severe acute pancreatitis, there is still no single test available to reliably predict the disease severity and time of death. Future large-scale studies are required to develop an assessment scale that can accurately predict the prognosis and mortality risk of severe acute pancreatitis.

Comparison of Scoring Systems in Predicting Severity and Prognosis of Hypertriglyceridemia-Induced Acute Pancreatitis

In China, hyperlipidemia is the second major reason of acute pancreatitis. Comparison of Scoring Systems in identification patients at risk for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), pancreatic necrosis (PNec), and infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) early in the course of hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP). Predictive accuracy of scoring systems was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in a retrospective study. Pairwise AUC comparisons were performed to calculate the difference between scoring systems. A total of 238 patients diagnosed with HTG-AP were included. Sixty patients (25.2%) were classified as SAP. Twenty-nine patients (12.2%) had evidence of PNec. Nine patients (3.8%) were diagnosed with IPN. One patient (0.4%) died during hospitalization. In predicting SAP in HTG-AP, the AUCs of APACHE-II, SOFA, SIRS, Ranson's, BISAP, and MMS were 0.77, 0.83, 0.73, 0.88, 0.83, and 0.85, respectively; in predicting PNec, were 0.75, 0.77, 0.75, 0.86, 0.80, and 0.75, respectively; and in predicting IPN, were 0.92, 0.86, 0.76, 0.85, 0.84, and 0.87, respectively. Pairwise AUC comparisons revealed that Ranson's, MMS, BISAP, and SOFA had higher accuracy than SIRS, Ranson's and MMS had higher accuracy than APACHE-II in predicting SAP; Ranson's had the same accuracy with BISAP, but higher than other four criteria in predicting PNec; APACHE-II had higher accuracy than SIRS in predicting IPN. APACHE-II had high performance in predicting IPN, and all other score systems had medium performance in predicting SAP, PNec, and IPN in HTG-AP. Each score has its merit and weakness; BISAP may be the best criterion in predicting severity and prognosis of HTG-AP.

Features of the course of acute pancreatitis in patients with obesity.

The purpose of the study is to investigate the course of acute pancreatitis in obese patients, the development of local and systemic complications and mortality rates. We took and analyzed 482 histories of acute pancreatitis treated at Kyiv Regional Clinical Hospital from January 1, 2011 to February 2, 2019. The data were statistically processed in the Excel 2010 program using a descriptive method applying relative, absolute numbers, mean square deviations and their errors. A correlation between variables was studied using the Pearson's test (R2). The significance of the difference between the two independent groups was tested with Student's t-test. We included 482 patients in our study, i.e. 260 patients (54%) with obesity (the study group), and for comparison, 222 (46%) patients with normal body mass, constituting a control group. Obese patients had a higher mean age (55.4 ± 9.4 years, P = 0.01); also, they showed a statistically higher incidence of severe course of acute pancreatitis [85 (32.7%) vs. 16 (7.2%); P = 0.01*]. We noted an increase in the rate of acute pancreatitis with severe course in obese patients with mass gain (from 10.20% to 53.93%, P = 0.03*). Hospitalization time of obese patients was longer than in case of patients with normal body mass. In addition, we observed a two-fold longer hospitalization of obese patients at intensive care units (5.8 ± 0.8 vs. 2.7 ± 0.5 days, P = 0.01*). When investigating the mortality rate, we found out that the main cause of death was the progression of organ failure - 30 cases (6.3%), pulmonary embolism (TB) - 15 (3.1%) and DIC - 18 (3.7%). C onclusions: The presence of obesity in patients involves a high risk of severe acute pancreatitis. This risk increases with body mass increase. In addition, in obese patients the hospitalization and in-patient care takes longer, which increases the total cost of treatment and requires a cost-effective algorithm in the future. A high mortality rate in obese patients requires an improved treatment algorithm.

Association of the hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype and severity of acute pancreatitis

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of a simple visceral obesity phenotype, known as the hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype and its quantitative indicator waist circumference index on the severity of acute pancreatitis.Materials and methodsDiagnosis and severity analysis of acute pancreatitis were determined according to the Atlanta classification guidelines, revised in 2012. We considered the hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype as characterized by increased waist circumference and elevated triglyceride concentrations. We investigated the association between the acute pancreatitis severity and hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype, including waist circumference index.ResultsThe hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype was significantly associated with systemic inflammatory response syndrome, organ failure, and severe acute pancreatitis. The median waist circumference index and demonstration of hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype were positively correlated with acute pancreatitis severity. In addition, multivariate logistic analysis showed that patients with the hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype had 1.664 times the risk of organ failure and 1.891 times the risk of systemic inflammatory response syndrome, compared with the other groups.ConclusionUpon admission, the hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype was strongly associated with acute pancreatitis in patients. This phenotype, including waist circumference index, might be a simple method for evaluating individuals at high risk of severe acute pancreatitis.

Artificial neural network algorithm model as powerful tool to predict acute lung injury following to severe acute pancreatitis

ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to predict the risk of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) associated with acute lung injury (ALI) by artificial neural networks (ANNs) model. MethodsThe ANNs and logistic regression model were constructed using clinical and laboratory data of 217 SAP patients. The models were first trained on 152 randomly chosen patients, validated and tested on the 33 patients and 32 patients respectively. Statistical indices were used to evaluate the value of the forecast in two models. ResultsThe training set, validation set and test set were not significantly different for any of the 13 variables. After training, the back propagation network retained excellent pattern recognition ability. When the ANNs model was applied to the test set, it revealed a sensitivity of 87.5%, specificity of 83.3%. The accuracy was 84.43%. Significant differences could be found between ANNs model and logistic regression model in these parameter. When ANNs model was used to identify ALI, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.859 ± 0.048, which demonstrated the better overall properties than logistic regression modeling (AUC = 0.701 + 0.041) (95% CI: 0.664–0.857). Meanwhile, pancreatic necrosis rate, lactic dehydrogenase and oxyhemoglobin saturation were the important factors among all thirteen independent variable for ALI. ConclusionThe ANNs model was a valuable tool in dealing with the clinical risk prediction problem of ALI following to SAP. In addition, our approach can extract informative risk factors of ALI via the ANNs model.

Prospective Validation of a Decision Tree Model for Prediction of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis

Early identification of severe acute pancreatitis is important for early stratification, goal directed fluid therapy, rationalizing level of care to improve outcome. Various clinical, laboratory and imaging scoring system has been used to identify severe acute pancreatitis with variable results. Recently a decision tree model was proposed using serum creatinine, serum lactate dehydrogenase and oxygenation index to predict severe acute pancreatitis. This system is easy and usable at our centre. Hence, we conducted the study to validate the decision tree model prospectively. Patients admitted with a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis were included in the study. Decision tree model was used to identify patients at high and low risk for severe acute pancreatitis. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated for prediction of the decision tree model. Fifty-three patients were included in the study. Fourty-one (77.4 %) patients with mild acute pancreatitis, five (9.4 %) patients had moderately severe pancreatitis and seven (13.2 %) patients had severe acute pancreatitis. Sensitivity and specificity of decision tree model to predict severity of pancreatitis was 97.83%(95 % CI - 88.47% to 99.94%) and 71.43 % % (95 % CI - 29.04% to 96.33%) respectively with positive and negative predictable value of 95.74 % % (95 % CI - 87.45% to 98.64%) and 83.33 % % (95 % CI - 40.49% to 97.35%) respectively. Decision tree model with serum creatinine, lactate dehydrogenase, and oxygenation index is an easy and useful tool to predict patients at high risk of developing severe acute pancreatitis.

Prospective Validation of a Decision Tree Model for Prediction of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis

Background: Early identification of severe acute pancreatitis is important for early stratification, goal directed fluid therapy, rationalizing level of care to improve outcome. Various clinical, laboratory and imaging scoring system has been used to identify severe acute pancreatitis with variable results. Recently a decision tree model was proposed using serum creatinine, serum lactate dehydrogenase and oxygenation index to predict severe acute pancreatitis. This system is easy and usable at our centre. Hence, we conducted the study to validate the decision tree model prospectively.Methods: Patients admitted with a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis were included in the study. Decision tree model was used to identify patients at high and low risk for severe acute pancreatitis. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated for prediction of the decision tree model.Results: Fifty-three patients were included in the study. Fourty-one (77.4 %) patients with mild acute pancreatitis, five (9.4 %) patients had moderately severe pancreatitis and seven (13.2 %) patients had severe acute pancreatitis. Sensitivity and specificity of decision tree model to predict severity of pancreatitis was 97.83%(95 % CI – 88.47% to 99.94%) and 71.43 % % (95 % CI – 29.04% to 96.33%) respectively with positive and negative predictable value of 95.74 % % (95 % CI – 87.45% to 98.64%) and 83.33 % % (95 % CI – 40.49% to 97.35%) respectively.Conclusions: Decision tree model with serum creatinine, lactate dehydrogenase, and oxygenation index is an easy and useful tool to predict patients at high risk of developing severe acute pancreatitis.Keywords: Acute pancreatitis; decision tree; severe acute pancreatitis.

Red cell distribution width and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as predictors of outcomes in acute pancreatitis: A retrospective cohort study

BackgroundAcute pancreatitis is a commonly encountered emergency but accurately predicting that subset of patients who will become systemically unwell has proven difficult. Simple haematological prognostic markers, such as red cell distribution width (RDW) and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), could identify such patients. The aim of this study was to assess the usefulness of RDW and NLR measured on admission as predictors of mortality and intensive care (ICU) or high dependency unit (HDU) admission in patients with acute pancreatitis. Materials and methodsAll patient who presented to our institution with acute pancreatitis between August 2013 and August 2016 were retrospectively identified using the prospectively maintained Hospital In-Patient Enquiry (HIPE) discharge audit. Data on survival, admission to HDU or ICU, length of stay and haematological parameters including RDW and NLR on presentation to the emergency department were collected. ResultsA total of 185 patients with acute pancreatitis were included of which 23 (12%) patients had a RDW above the upper limit of normal (ULN), which was associated with a significantly increased likelihood of admission to ICU or HDU (RR3.5; p = 0.01); 117 (63%) patients had a NLR above 5 on presentation, which also increased the risk of ICU or HDU admission (RR 8.1; p = 0.01). Patients who had both a RDW above the ULN and a raised NLR had an increased risk of inpatient mortality (RR 9.9; p = 0.04). ConclusionRDW and NLR can identify patients at increased risk of severe acute pancreatitis on presentation to the Emergency Department.

Prognostic models for predicting the severity and mortality in people with acute pancreatitis

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (Prognosis). The objectives are as follows: The primary objective is to synthesise available evidence from external validation studies evaluating the predictive accuracy of clinical scoring systems (measured on admission and up to 48 hours following admission) for severity and mortality within six months in people with acute pancreatitis. The secondary objective is to compare different risk thresholds of available scoring systems (i.e. the level at which the risk of severe acute pancreatitis or mortality is considered to be high) to predict severity and mortality within six months in people with acute pancreatitis. For both objectives, we will explore differences in patient populations, length of follow‐up, and study design as potential sources of between‐study heterogeneity.

Association between chemokine (C–C motif) ligand 2 gene −2518 A/G polymorphism and pancreatitis risk: A meta-analysis

ObjectiveMany studies have focused on the relationship between chemokine (C–C motif) ligand 2 gene (CCL2) −2518 A/G polymorphism and pancreatitis risk, but the results remain inconsistent. Thus, a meta-analysis was carried out to derive a more precise estimation of the association between CCL2 −2518 A/G polymorphism and pancreatitis risk. MethodsRelevant publications were searched in several widely used databases and six studies were included in the meta-analysis. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to evaluate the strength of the association between CCL2 −2518 A/G polymorphism and pancreatitis risk. ResultsSignificant associations between CCL2 −2518 A/G polymorphism and pancreatitis risk were observed in both overall meta-analysis (OR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.43–0.89 for AA versus AG + GG; OR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.51–0.98 for A allele versus G allele), and acute pancreatitis subgroup (OR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.31–0.99 for AA versus AG + GG), especially severe acute pancreatitis subgroup when compared with controls (OR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.24–0.97 for AG versus GG; OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.18–0.70 for AA + AG versus GG). However, no significant pancreatitis risk variation was detected for all genetic models in the severe acute pancreatitis versus mild acute pancreatitis subgroup and the subgroup analysis based on ethnicity. ConclusionsThe CCL2 −2518 A/G polymorphism probably associates with pancreatitis risk, especially severe acute pancreatitis risk when compared with controls, with the G allele acting as a risk factor.

The Role of Melatonin in Pancreatic Protection: Could Melatonin be Used in the Treatment of Acute Pancreatitis?

Acute pancreatitis is a disease, which could be manifested as either a mild edematous form or a more severe necrotizing pancreatitis which has a poor prognosis. The etiology and pathogenesis of this ailment is not completely clear. Melatonin is an indoleamine which is produced from L-tryptophan in the pineal gland and in the other tissue including gastrointestinal tract. Both melatonin and its precursor have been demonstrated to protect the pancreas against acute pancreatitis and to attenuate pancreatic tissue damage. In the pancreas melatonin and L-tryptophan activate complex mechanisms which involve direct scavenging of the radical oxygen and nitrogen species, activation of antioxidant enzymes (catalase, superoxide dysmutase, glutation peroxidase), reduction of pro-inflammatory cytokines and prostaglandins, activation of heat shock protein, and a decrease of necrosis and increase of regeneration in the pancreas. There are several arguments for the idea that endogenous melatonin produced in the pineal gland and in the gastrointestinal system could be the part of a native mechanisms for protecting the pancreas against acute damage: 1/ the melatonin precursor L-tryptophan exerts similar protective effect as melatonin, 2/ application of the melatonin receptor antagonist, luzindole aggravates acute pancreatitis, 3/ pinealectomy results in the exacerbation of acute pancreatitis, 4/ low melatonin plasma levels are associated with an increased risk of severe acute pancreatitis. These observations leads to the idea that perhaps melatonin could be used in clinical trials as supportive therapy in acute pancreatitis.

Circulating cytokines in predicting development of severe acute pancreatitis.

IntroductionSevere acute pancreatitis (AP) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Early prediction of severe AP is needed to improve patient outcomes. The aim of the present study was to find novel cytokines or combinations of cytokines that can be used for the early identification of patients with AP at risk for severe disease.MethodsWe performed a prospective study of 163 nonconsecutive patients with AP, of whom 25 had severe AP according to the revised Atlanta criteria. Admission serum levels of 48 cytokines and growth factors were determined using Bio-Plex Pro Human Cytokine Assay 21-plex and 27-plex magnetic bead suspension panels. Admission plasma levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), creatinine and calcium were measured for comparison. In subgroup analyses, we assessed the cytokine profiles of patients with severe AP (n = 14) who did not have organ dysfunction (OD) upon admission (modified Marshall score <2).ResultsOf 14 cytokines elevated in the severe AP group, interleukin 6 (IL-6) and hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) levels were independent prognostic markers of severe AP. IL-6, HGF and a combination of them predicted severe AP with sensitivities of 56.0%, 60.0% and 72.0%, respectively, and specificities of 90.6%, 92.8% and 89.9%, respectively. The corresponding positive likelihood ratio (LR+) values were 5.9, 8.3 and 7.1, respectively. The predictive values of CRP, creatinine and calcium were comparable to those of the cytokines. In subgroup analyses of patients with severe AP and without OD upon admission, we found that IL-8, HGF and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) levels predicted the development of severe AP, with G-CSF being the most accurate cytokine at a sensitivity of 35.7%, a specificity of 96.1% and a LR+ of 9.1.ConclusionsIL-6 and HGF levels upon admission have prognostic value for severe AP which is similar to levels of CRP, creatinine and calcium. Although IL-6 and HGF, as either single or combined markers, were not perfect in identifying patients at risk for severe AP, the possibility that combining them with novel prognostic markers other than cytokines might improve prognostic accuracy needs to be studied. The accuracy of IL-8, HGF and G-CSF levels in predicting severe AP in patients without clinical signs of OD upon admission warrants larger studies.

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Adipokine Levels in the Course of Mild Biliary Pancreatitis

Objectives: Obesity markedly increases the risk of severe acute pancreatitis (AP). Several adipokines have been ascribed a role as a predictor of clinical severity in AP. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate a possible relationship between leptin and adiponectin and mild biliary AP. Methods: We included 24 consecutive patients with mild biliary AP and 24 consecutive healthy age- and sex-matched controls. Clinical severity was classified by the Ranson score. ELISA was used to assess leptin and adiponectin levels on admission and in remission. Complete blood cell counts and other laboratory tests were also performed at baseline and in remission. Results: Leptin, adiponectin, insulin and HOMA-IR measurements showed no difference in pancreatitis patients both on admission and in remission compared to the control group. No difference was found in leptin, insulin or HOMA-IR levels in the course of pancreatitis. However, adiponectin levels were higher in remission compared to admission. Conclusions: Increased adiponectin levels in remission may be an indication of improvement in this condition. Further studies are needed to determine whether adiponectin provides protection from AP.

Enhanced recovery after surgery in pancreatic surgery: Preliminary data on safety and adherence for new pathways

gene copy number was determined by means of a TaqMan real-time PCR assay. Results: Significantly higher frequencies of the AA genotype of G-20A and the AA genotype of G-52A were observed among the patients with severe acute pancreatitis as compared with the healthy controls (38% vs 20%, and 41% vs 18% respectively). The GG protective genotype of C-44G SNP was much less frequent (1%) among the patients than among the controls (9%). A higher frequency of a lower (<4) copy number of the DEFB4 gene was observed in the patients with severe acute pancreatitis than in the healthy controls (62% vs 24% respectively). Conclusions: The genetic variations in the genes encoding the human b-defensin 1 and that of human b-defensin 2 may be associated with the risk of severe acute pancreatitis.

A new minimally invasive technique for benign neoplasm of the pancreatic body: Laparoscopic spleen-preserving distal pancreatectomy with autologous islet transplantation (AIT)

gene copy number was determined by means of a TaqMan real-time PCR assay. Results: Significantly higher frequencies of the AA genotype of G-20A and the AA genotype of G-52A were observed among the patients with severe acute pancreatitis as compared with the healthy controls (38% vs 20%, and 41% vs 18% respectively). The GG protective genotype of C-44G SNP was much less frequent (1%) among the patients than among the controls (9%). A higher frequency of a lower (<4) copy number of the DEFB4 gene was observed in the patients with severe acute pancreatitis than in the healthy controls (62% vs 24% respectively). Conclusions: The genetic variations in the genes encoding the human b-defensin 1 and that of human b-defensin 2 may be associated with the risk of severe acute pancreatitis.

Increased risk of severe acute pancreatitis in patients with diabetes

We prospectively assessed the age- and sex-specific incidence rates and relative risks of overall and severe acute pancreatitis in Taiwanese with diabetes. The study cohort included age- and-sex-matched groups of patients with (n = 547,554) and without (n = 584,373) diabetes. Incidence rate was estimated under Poisson assumption and relative risks of acute pancreatitis and severe acute pancreatitis, based on modified Atlanta criteria, were indicated by hazard ratios estimated from Cox proportional hazard regression models. Over an 8-year follow-up period, the incidence of acute pancreatitis was 2.98 and 1.68 per 1000 person-years for patients with and without diabetes, respectively, representing a covariate adjusted hazard ratio of 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.49-1.58). Diabetes was associated with a significantly elevated risk of acute pancreatitis in all sex and age stratifications, with the highest hazard ratio noted for study subjects aged < 45 years (men 2.37; women 2.95). Diabetes was also significantly associated with an increased hazard ratio of severe acute pancreatitis [1.46 (1.36-1.57)], and especially of acute pancreatitis with local complications [1.65 (1.14-2.39)]. Diabetes is associated with an increased risk of overall and severe acute pancreatitis, and the relation is stronger in women and young patients.

Is obesity an indicator of complications and mortality in acute pancreatitis? An updated meta‐analysis

To provide a meta-analyisis on whether obesity could be a prognostic indicator on the severity, development of complications and mortality of acute pancreatitis (AP). Eligible articles were retrieved using electronic databases. Clinical studies evaluating the association between obesity and disease course of patients with AP were included. Weighted mean difference (WMD) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated and pooled using RevMan 4.2.8. In all, 12 clinical studies with a total of 1483 patients were included in the analysis. Obese patients had a significantly increased risk of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP; RR=2.20, 95% CI 1.82-2.66, P<0.05), local complication (RR=2.68, 95% CI 2.09-3.43, P<0.05), systemic complication (RR=2.14, 95% CI 1.42-3.21, P<0.05) and in-hospital mortality (RR=2.59, 95% CI 1.66-4.03, P<0.05) compared with non-obese patients. Obesity is a definite risk factor of morbidity and in-hospital mortality for AP and may serve as a prognostic indicator.