Risk Of Reconviction Research Articles

Dynamic risk factors reassessed regularly after release from incarceration predict imminent violent recidivism.

In community-based corrections, reassessment of dynamic risk factors improves the prediction of recidivism relative to initial risk assessment at the time of release. However, there is less evidence for predictions of violent recidivism. We examined whether reassessment proximity or aggregation of reassessments improved the prediction of imminent violence in a sample of paroled individuals on community supervision. We hypothesized that reassessment of dynamic risk would better predict violent recidivism than initial risk assessment at the time of release. Examination of aggregation and individual risk-factor domains was exploratory. In a prospective study of violent recidivism in a sample of individuals on community supervision in New Zealand (75,917 assessments from 3,421 participants; 92.8% men), we used supervision officers' ratings of dynamic risk (assessed using Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry [DRAOR]) and static risk scores (using the Risk of ReConviction × Risk of Imprisonment) to predict imminent violence (within 2 weeks). Individuals who recidivated violently had higher initial risk ratings (DRAOR Stable d = 0.36, 95% CI [0.17, 0.55]; DRAOR Acute d = 0.45, 95% CI [0.26, 0.64]) and showed more week-to-week fluctuations in risk ratings (DRAOR Stable d = 0.21, 95% CI [0.04, 0.41]; DRAOR Acute d = 0.26, 95% CI [0.06,0.46]). Total averages of faster-changing acute risk factors best predicted violence (c-index = 0.68), with changes in these factors incrementally predicting violence over well-established predictors (criminal history) and initial scores (Δχ2 = 15.54, df = 3). The constructs that best discriminated violence were consistent with social cognition explanations of violence. Because client consistency as determined through score aggregation was more important than current presentation, supervision officers should consider overall patterns of interpersonal hostility and reactivity rather than assuming the emerging presence of these factors will signal imminent violence among previously violent individuals. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Suspending re-offending? Comparing the effects of suspended prison sentences and short-term imprisonment on recidivism in the Netherlands

In the Netherlands, suspended sentences are increasingly imposed as alternatives to short-term imprisonment in an attempt to reduce recidivism. However, little research has been done to examine recidivism outcomes after suspended sentences. This study used official data on adult offenders sentenced to either fully suspended prison sentences or short-term imprisonment in the court districts of Amsterdam and The Hague ( n = 2115). Using propensity score matching, no significant differences in the risk of reconviction between the two sentences were found. Regarding criminal history, first offenders given fully suspended prison sentences had a higher risk of being reconvicted than first offenders sentenced to short-term imprisonment. In contrast, recidivists sentenced to short-term imprisonment had a higher risk of being reconvicted.

How long did it last? A 10-year reconviction follow-up study of high intensity training for young offenders

Most research has suggested that correctional boot camps are not very successful in reducing reoffending, but recent evidence has been more encouraging for programs that include significant rehabilitative components. In line with this, High Intensity Training (HIT) for offenders aged 18–21 at Thorn Cross Young Offender Institution in England was followed by a significant reduction in the number of reconvictions in a 2-year follow up. This article aims to evaluate the impact of the HIT program after 10 years. The evaluation used a quasi-experimental design in which male young offenders who received HIT were individually matched, on their risk of reconviction, to a comparison group who went to other prisons. Official reconviction data, including the prevalence, frequency, types, and costs of offenses were used as the outcome measures. Offenders who received HIT had a significantly lower prevalence and frequency of reconvictions, but their superiority over the control group reduced over time (after about 4 years). However, the cumulative number of convictions that were saved increased steadily over time, from 1.35 per offender at 2 years to 3.35 per offender at 10 years. The cumulative cost savings also increased over time, and the benefit:cost ratio, based on fewer convictions, increased from 1.13 at 2 years to 3.93 at 10 years. The beneficial effects of the HIT program became more obvious over time. More randomized experiments and long-term follow-up research, including regular interviews, are needed to evaluate the cumulative and persisting effects of correctional interventions more accurately.

Does change in psychometric test scores tell us anything about risk of reconviction in sexual offenders?

This study examined the relationship between psychometric test change over treatment and sexual or violent reconviction. A sample of 3402 convicted sexual offenders attending probation sexual offender treatment in the community completed psychometric tests pre- and post-treatment. Individuals’ treatment change status was determined by whether their pre- to post-treatment scores had reliably deteriorated, were unchanged, reliably improved (but not to within a functional range), reliably improved to, or remained within, a functional range. Treatment outcome status was not associated with reconviction for a sexual or violent reoffence for any of the measures examined. The sample was then grouped into those who had and had not changed to within a functional range of scoring on amalgamated measures of offence-supportive attitudes, socio-affective functioning and self-management. Those who were classed as not requiring further change on the socio-affective functioning domain had a lower rate of reconviction than those who, according to the psychometric tests, still needed to change post-treatment. However, change on this domain did not add predictive power to static risk assessment. Overall treatment change was not associated with reduced sexual or violent recidivism. Recommendations for further research in this area, and the practical implications of these findings, are discussed.

Ever-increasing circles: A descriptive study of Hampshire and Thames Valley Circles of Support and Accountability 2002–09

This paper gives a history of Hampshire and Thames Valley (HTV) Circles, an organisation which recruits, trains and supports volunteer members of the public who are formed into small groups meeting weekly to provide support and monitoring of post-conviction sex offenders (Core Members) in the community. It describes the origins of Circles of Support and Accountability in Canada and gives an account of its implementation in the UK and a summary of the findings of the previous study of the first 16 HTV Circles Core Members in 2006 and some discussion about the challenges inherent in evaluating this kind of community-based and volunteer-led intervention. It describes demographic data on 60 Core Members followed-up for an average period of 36.2 months, including offence and sentence category, treatment history and statistically assessed risk of reconviction. It provides evidence of progress by these Core Members across a range of dynamic risk factors, as well as information on sexual reconviction, recall to prison and dropout from Circles. Three case studies provide details of Circles practice in community risk management of sex offenders. The paper discusses proposed areas of further research into Circles work, as well as the development of new techniques for measuring and managing dynamic risk factors displayed by Core Members in the community.

A longitudinal analysis of reparative probation and recidivism

Longitudinal data on 9078 probationers were used to assess the impact of Vermont’s reparative probation program on criminal recidivism. A quasi-experimental design was employed to compare five-year reconviction rates of 6682 standard and 2396 reparative probationers sentenced during the years 1998, 1999, and 2000. Propensity score methods were used to address selection bias and to generate two equivalent groups of probationers for comparison. Results from a Cox regression model indicated that over the five-year period following the imposition of the original probationary sentence, reparative probationers evidenced a significantly lower risk of reconviction than standard probationers. This disparity in recidivism was maintained when holding constant probationer’s prior record, type of offense, age, and gender. Implications for policy are discussed.

Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI) Profiles of Offenders and Their Relationship to Institutional Misconduct and Risk of Reconviction

This article investigates whether particular scales of the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI; Morey, 1991) are associated with institutional misconduct and risk of reconviction among 268 offenders in a therapeutic community prison. A moderate positive correlation was found between the Antisocial Behavior subscale of the PAI and general institutional misconduct. Moderate positive correlations were also found between the Antisocial Features, Aggression, and Drug Problems scales and risk of reconviction as measured by the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (Francis, Soothill, & Humphries, 2007; Taylor, 1999). In addition, receiver operating characteristic analyses showed that certain PAI cut scores had utility in identifying prisoners who had engaged in institutional misconduct and who posed a high risk of reconviction.

When do Ex‐Offenders Become Like Non‐Offenders?

Abstract: When can ex-offenders with no further convictions be considered as exhibiting the same risk of reconviction as non-offenders? This issue is relevant for the retention and disclosure of early criminal records, and is a controversial issue. Replicating American work by Kurlychek and his colleagues (2006, 2007), this study focusing on England and Wales broadly endorses their findings by suggesting that groups whose members have either a finding of guilt as a juvenile or a conviction between the ages of 17 and 20 years – but no further convictions – converge with the non-offending group at around the age of 30 years, while the group whose members have findings of guilt as a juvenile and convictions as a young adult prior to 21 years eventually converges with the other groups at around the age of 35 years. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are considered.

How should we understand the effect of age on sexual recidivism?

Research into the effect of age on sexual recidivism risk is a relatively new and developing area of interest and is likely to be of great interest for forensic practitioners responsible for the community supervision of sexual offenders. Meta-analytical and follow-up reconviction studies indicate an inverse relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk, where younger sex offenders pose a greater risk of reconviction than older sex offenders. This finding has led to the development of actuarial risk scales which identify younger sex offenders (<25 years) as posing the greatest risk. However, recent research studies have reported contradictory results to this assumption and found a non-linear relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk. Only a small number of studies have investigated the effect of age on sexual recidivism by comparing age bands and rates of sexual recidivism. Researchers have also considered the effect of age on actuarial risk, which risk factors are associated with which age bands and sexual recidivism rates between sex offender subgroups. The purpose of this paper is to integrate this research and to link commonalities between these studies. This paper organizes the effect of age on sexual recidivism into five categories: (i) the effect of age and actuarial risk; (ii) the effect of age on sexual arousal; (iii) the effect of age-at-release on sexual recidivism risk; (iv) the effect of age-at-first-offence on sexual recidivism risk; and (v) the effect of age on child molesters and rapists on sexual recidivism risk. Important differences were found between age bands of sexual offenders in terms of sexual recidivism risk and actuarial risk factors as well as differences between rapists and child molesters. The relative importance of factoring age when assessing risk in sex offenders is discussed.

Duration of the time to reconviction: Evidence from UK prisoner discharge data

Duration models were used to investigate reconviction risks for a sample of 34,126 offenders released from prison in England and Wales during 1998. Different versions of the Cox proportional hazards model were applied to a comprehensive data set covering several offense types. Factors such as age (modelled using bands rather than a linear or quadratic format), gender, convictions-history, and offense type were found to be strongly associated with the risk of reconviction. Interactions between factors were also included and it was shown that the discrepancy between the risk of reconviction for males and females became weaker as the number of previous convictions increased. The study helped identify the subgroups of offenders for whom reconviction risks are greatest and the times when they seem to be most vulnerable to reconviction. Implications are explored for the design of prisoner resettlement programs and the prioritization of offenders for more intensive forms of intervention.

The Assessment of Risk in the National Probation Service of England and Wales

Summary: This article focuses on the National Probation Service of England and Wales and explores the dominance of a particular approach to risk assessment. Reference is made to other areas of social work practice. Findings: The article starts with a description of probation practice in relation to the assessment of risk using the current risk/needs assessment tool, the Offender Assessment System (OASys). The article explores the distinction between risk of reconviction and risk of harm and the use of static and dynamic factors in assessment. It then moves to a consideration of issues arising in two areas. The first of these is the relationship between risk and concepts of proportionality and fairness within the justice system. The second area for consideration is some implications of the dominance of a particular form of risk assessment in the National Probation Service specifically in respect of the knowledge base of assessment; motivation; and the distinction between defensible and defensive judgements about risk made by individual practitioners. Applications: A preoccupation with the technicalities of risk assessment has encouraged the overshadowing of proportionality and the erosion of the rights of ‘risky’ offenders. A rights-based, rather than a risk-based, emphasis in criminal justice innovations might redress the balance. An approach which explores protective factors, rather than risk factors, is worthy of consideration.

The Reasoning and Rehabilitation Program

Background: Rehabilitation programs for criminal offenders target primary outcomes such as effects on criminogenic needs and secondary outcomes of reducing recidivism. Most evaluation studies focus only on one type of outcome. This study evaluated outcomes on both primary and secondary targets of the Reasoning and Rehabilitation (R&R) program for 372 male Swedish prisoners. Method: Short-term changes were measured by the Sense of Coherence scale, Eysenck's Impulsiveness, Venturesomeness and Empathy Questionnaire and the Criminal Sentiments Scale. Long-term changes were measured by reconviction outcomes compared to matched controls. Results: The total program completion rate was 77% over a five-year period. Primary target evaluation showed significant pro-social short-term improvements among program completers in sense of coherence, impulsiveness, venturesomeness, attitudes towards the law, courts and police, tolerance of law violation and criminal identification. Secondary target evaluation by survival analysis showed that program completers had a 25% lower risk of reconviction up to 36 months following prison release, compared to matched controls. Dropouts, who were younger and more criminally active, had a 38% higher comparative risk of reconviction. Significant differences occurred in overall 36-month reconviction rates: 48.1% for program completers (n = 212), 60.3% for controls (n = 451) and 73.4% for dropouts (n = 64). Conclusions: The R&R program was associated with positive short-and long-term results. Future research should expand test batteries to assessment of cognitive and social skill acquisition and measurement of motivation for change, as well as randomizing study participants to investigate a possible selection bias in the present results.

Evaluation of a National Prison-based Treatment Program for Sexual Offenders in England and Wales

Treatment efficacy is described for a sample of sexual offenders who had undertaken treatment in United Kingdom prisons (N = 647) and for a retrospectively selected comparison group (N = 1,910). The outcomes under observation in this study were sexual, sexual and/or violent, and general reconviction. Treatment impact was also examined in relation to offenders' risk of reconviction. The treatment group had slightly lower 2-year sexual reconviction rates than the comparison group, but these differences were not statistically significant. Significant differences were found between the treatment and comparison group for sexual and/or violent reconviction. Further analysis suggested that treatment produced a reduction in the probability of sexual and/or violent reconviction (p <.05) when other relevant variables were controlled for. General reconviction rates were consistently lower in the treatment group, but these differences were not significant.

Social Factors and Risk of Reconviction

Social Factors and Risk of Reconviction

Towards a psychometric typology for assessing pre-treatment level of problems in child abusers

Fifty-nine child abusers were given a battery of psychometric measures before the commencement of treatment for their sex offending. The scores on these measures assessed levels of social adequacy, sex deviance and denial. Statistical analysis found that these measures formed clusters of deviancy in comparison with a sample of 81 non-offending men. Five deviancy groups were clearly identified, ranging from a Very Low deviancy group where there was little difference in scores on most of the questionnaires from non-offending men, to a High+ deviancy group where the scores on the questionnaires were extremely deviant on most of the measures. Investigation of the offence demographics found that, compared to the lower deviancy men, higher deviancy men were at greater risk of reconviction for a sexual offence, to have had a large number of victims, to have committed offences both inside and outside of the family, and to have committed offences against both boys and girls. Even though research is at an early stage, these results suggest that the use of psychometric tests may be a useful adjunct to any risk assessment.

Does Parole Reduce the Risk of Reconviction?

: Research is reviewed from Canada, Great Britain, and the USA, which suggests that offenders granted parole are reconvicted less than those not so released. The competing explanations for this uniformly observed difference are evaluated. It is concluded that the most likely explanation is in terms of a treatment effect rather than a consequence of the selection of better risk prisoners alone. Something about the grant or process of parole seems to work to reduce reconviction. This could be something as disreputable as the use of delaying tactics to postpone a further conviction until after licence expiry. There could also be a negative effect of parole denial to offset any positive effect of the grant of parole. Research is suggested which would clarify these points. Assuming remaining doubts are resolved in ways favourable to parole, there appears to be some grounds for optimism for parole schemes to develop into criminal justice procedures which have the net effect of crime reduction.