A longitudinal analysis of reparative probation and recidivism

Abstract

Longitudinal data on 9078 probationers were used to assess the impact of Vermont’s reparative probation program on criminal recidivism. A quasi-experimental design was employed to compare five-year reconviction rates of 6682 standard and 2396 reparative probationers sentenced during the years 1998, 1999, and 2000. Propensity score methods were used to address selection bias and to generate two equivalent groups of probationers for comparison. Results from a Cox regression model indicated that over the five-year period following the imposition of the original probationary sentence, reparative probationers evidenced a significantly lower risk of reconviction than standard probationers. This disparity in recidivism was maintained when holding constant probationer’s prior record, type of offense, age, and gender. Implications for policy are discussed.