Risk Of Reoffending Research Articles

The Good Lives Model: A New Paradigm for Forensic Mental Health

The Good Lives Model (GLM) is a contemporary theory of offender rehabilitation that has the dual foci of promoting offenders’ goals and reducing their risk of reoffending. It has proved popular with practitioners working with offenders in correctional services but its potential as a rehabilitation framework for mentally disordered offenders (MDOs) in forensic mental health services has been largely untapped. The purpose of this article is to explore how the GLM can be theoretically augmented for use with offenders with mental illness and applied to MDOs in a forensic mental health setting. A case study is provided to illustrate how the enriched GLM can promote a cohesive and holistic approach to forensic rehabilitation that integrates risk, psychiatric treatment, and well-being perspectives. The potential benefits of utilizing the GLM as an overarching rehabilitation framework in forensic mental health are discussed and important points of difference from a traditional approach are highlighted. The authors conclude that the GLM represents a paradigm shift for forensic mental health whereby the person, rather than risk reduction and/or the treatment of mental illness, is at centre stage.

Risk assessment and risk management of violent reoffending among prisoners

Forensic medical practitioners and scientists have for several years sought improved decision support for determining and managing care and release of prisoners with mental health problems. Some of these prisoners can pose a serious threat of violence to society after release. It is, therefore, critical that the risk of violent reoffending is accurately measured and, more importantly, well managed with causal interventions to reduce this risk after release. The well-established predictors in this area of research are typically based on regression models or even some rule-based methods with no statistical composition, and these have proven to be unsuitable for simulating causal interventions for risk management. In collaboration with the medical practitioners of the Violence Prevention Research Unit (VPRU), Queen Mary University of London, we have developed a Bayesian network (BN) model for this purpose, which we call DSVM-P (Decision Support for Violence Management – Prisoners). The BN model captures the causal relationships between risk factors, interventions and violence and demonstrates significantly higher accuracy (cross-validated AUC score of 0.78) compared to well-established predictors (AUC scores ranging from 0.665 to 0.717) within this area of research, with respect to whether a prisoner is determined suitable for release. Even more important, however, the BN model also allows for specific risk factors to be targeted for causal intervention for risk management of future re-offending. Hence, unlike the previous predictors, this makes the model useful in terms of answering complex clinical questions that are based on unobserved evidence. Clinicians and probation officers who work in these areas would benefit from a system that takes account of these complex risk management considerations, since these decision support features are not available in the previous generation of models used by forensic psychiatrists.

Risk assessment by client and case manager for shared decision making in outpatient forensic psychiatry

BackgroundIn outpatient forensic psychiatry, assessment of re-offending risk and treatment needs by case managers may be hampered by an incomplete view of client functioning. The client’s appreciation of his own problem behaviour is not systematically used for these purposes. The current study tests whether using a new client self-appraisal risk assessment instrument, based on the Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START), improves the assessment of re-offending risk and can support shared decision making in care planning.MethodsIn a sample of 201 outpatient forensic psychiatric clients, feasibility of client risk assessment, concordance with clinician assessment, and predictive validity of both assessments for violent or criminal behaviour were studied.ResultsAlmost all clients (98 %) were able to fill in the instrument. Agreement between client and case manager on the key risk and protective factors of the client was poor (mean kappa for selection as key factor was 0.15 and 0.09, respectively, and mean correlation on scoring −0.18 and 0.20). The optimal prediction model for violent or criminal behaviour consisted of the case manager’s structured professional risk estimate for violence in combination with the client’s self-appraisal on key risk and protective factors (AUC = 0.70; 95%CI: 0.60–0.80).ConclusionsIn outpatient forensic psychiatry, self-assessment of risk by the client is feasible and improves the prediction of re-offending. Clients and their case managers differ in their appraisal of key risk and protective factors. These differences should be addressed in shared care planning. The new Client Self-Appraisal based on START (CSA) risk assessment instrument can be a useful tool to facilitate such shared care planning in forensic psychiatry.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12888-015-0500-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

To Blame or to Forgive? Reconciling Punishment and Forgiveness in Criminal Justice.

What do you do when faced with wrongdoing—do you blame or do you forgive? Especially when confronted with offences that lie on the more severe end of the spectrum and cause terrible psychological or physical trauma or death, nothing can feel more natural than blame. Indeed, in the UK and the USA, increasingly vehement and righteous public expressions of blame and calls for vengeance have become commonplace; correspondingly, contemporary penal philosophy has witnessed a resurgence of the retributive tradition, in the modern form usually known as the ‘justice’ model. On the other hand, people can and routinely do forgive others, even in cases of severe crime. Evolutionary psychologists argue that both vengeance and forgiveness are universal human adaptations that have evolved as alternative responses to exploitation, and, crucially, strategies for reducing risk of re-offending. We are naturally endowed with both capacities: to blame and retaliate, or to forgive and seek to repair relations. Which should we choose? Drawing on evolutionary psychology, we offer an account of forgiveness and argue that the choice to blame, and not to forgive, is inconsistent with the political values of a broadly liberal society and can be instrumentally counter-productive to reducing the risk of future re-offending. We then sketch the shape of penal philosophy and criminal justice policy and practice with forgiveness in place as a guiding ideal.

Predicting general criminal recidivism in mentally disordered offenders using a random forest approach.

BackgroundPsychiatric expert opinions are supposed to assess the accused individual’s risk of reoffending based on a valid scientific foundation. In contrast to specific recidivism, general recidivism has only been poorly considered in Continental Europe; we therefore aimed to develop a valid instrument for assessing the risk of general criminal recidivism of mentally ill offenders.MethodData of 259 mentally ill offenders with a median time at risk of 107 months were analyzed and combined with the individuals’ criminal records. We derived risk factors for general criminal recidivism and classified re-offences by using a random forest approach.ResultsIn our sample of mentally ill offenders, 51% were reconvicted. The most important predictive factors for general criminal recidivism were: number of prior convictions, age, type of index offence, diversity of criminal history, and substance abuse. With our statistical approach we were able to correctly identify 58-95% of all reoffenders and 65-97% of all committed offences (AUC = .90).ConclusionsOur study presents a new statistical approach to forensic-psychiatric risk-assessment, allowing experts to evaluate general risk of reoffending in mentally disordered individuals, with a special focus on high-risk groups. This approach might serve not only for expert opinions in court, but also for risk management strategies and therapeutic interventions.

Jurors report that risk measure scores matter in sexually violent predator trials, but that other factors matter more.

After deliberating to a verdict, jurors (N = 462) from 40 sexually violent predator (SVP) trials completed a questionnaire asking them to rate the extent to which risk measure scores, diagnoses, expert witness testimony, and offender characteristics described during the trials influenced their commitment decisions. Jurors reported that offenders' sexual offending history, failure to change, and lack of remorse had the strongest influence on their commitment decisions. They reported that testimony about risk instrument scores (e.g., Static-99) and psychopathy had less influence on their decisions, but those who did report being influenced by instrument results were especially likely to view the offender as being at a high risk for reoffending. Overall, findings suggest that SVP jurors view risk measure results as important, but not as important as other offender, offense, and testimony characteristics, including some that have limited relevance to recidivism risk. Thus, findings also suggest that experts may need to better educate jurors regarding factors that do and do not relate to recidivism risk.

Sadism and Violent Reoffending in Sexual Offenders.

A diagnosis of sadism in sexual offenders is commonly regarded as indicative of high risk for violent reoffending. The purpose of the current two studies was to evaluate whether sadism is indeed associated with higher rates of violent (including sexual) reoffending. In Study 1 (meta-analysis), the rate of violent and sexual recidivism was assessed across seven samples of male sex offenders (total N = 2,169) as a function of diagnoses of sexual sadism. In Study 2 (N = 768) the outcome (violent recidivism yes/no) was regressed on sadism, along with behavioral indicators of sexually sadistic offending, and scores from violence risk assessment instruments. In Study 1 (meta-analysis), the overall risk of sadists compared with nonsadists with respect to violent (including sexual contact) reoffending was slightly elevated (by a factor of 1.18), yet not significantly increased. Similarly, the risk of sexual reoffending among sadists was slightly, but not significantly, higher than among nonsadists (factor 1.38). According to Study 2, only a measure of sadistic behavior, not the clinical diagnosis, was associated with violent reoffending. This association, however, was not present once age and customary risk assessment instruments for violence risk were included in the regression. A clinical diagnosis of sexual sadism and behavioral measures of sadism are related to the risk of violent reoffending in sexual offenders. These associations, however, are weak and do not hold once variables relevant for the prediction of violence are controlled for. At the individual level, the risk for future violence in sadists can therefore be adequately described by customary risk assessment instruments.

Psychiatric diagnosis and differential risks of offending following discharge

Psychiatric diagnosis is not considered a risk factor for offending following discharge. However, treatment interventions and aftercare are strongly influenced by clinical primary diagnosis. We compared differential risks of reoffending of patients falling into six primary diagnostic categories following discharge from Medium Secure Units in the UK: schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder; delusional disorder; mania/hypomania; depressive disorder; organic brain syndrome; personality disorder. We followed up 1344 patients, on average 6.2years (SD=2.1) at risk, discharged from 7 of 14 Regional Medium Secure services in England and Wales. Outcomes were period prevalence, incidence, and cumulative probability of criminal conviction. Established demographic and criminal history predictors of reoffending were observed across different diagnostic categories. Risks of all offending were increased for personality disorder, violence/acquisitive offending for delusional disorder, sexual offending for mania/hypomania and violence/acquisitive offending for organic brain syndrome. Patterns of risk over time differed markedly between categories of mental disorder. Most patients with personality disorder who offended violently did so within 4years of discharge. A subgroup with delusional disorder demonstrated increased risk of violent offending 5years after discharge. Differential risks of reoffending are observed between different diagnostic groups. Clinical diagnosis should be included together with established risk measures in risk management following discharge. Close supervision of patients with personality disorder should begin immediately after discharge when risks of reoffending are greatest. For delusional disorder further investigation is needed into the marked increase in risk of violence after 5years.

Unintended Consequences of Multiple Bail Conditions for Youth

Within the Criminal Code, and more recently the Youth Criminal Justice Act, the legislated goals of bail release conditions appear to be focused on the grounds for detention; in particular, to help ensure court attendance and to reduce the risk of reoffending. While Canadian research has explored the impact of multiple conditions on the likelihood of returning to court for failing to comply with orders, there has been no investigation into whether or not numerous conditions actually help to achieve their main legislated purposes of ensuring court attendance and reducing the likelihood of reoffending while on release. Using a large representative sample of completed youth court cases, we investigate the relationship between the imposition of numerous conditions and the achievement of those goals. We find that the use of numerous release conditions is not associated with an increased likelihood of court attendance or with a decreased likelihood of returning to court with new criminal (violence, property, drug) charges. Instead, numerous conditions are related only to an increased likelihood of subsequent failing-to-comply charges. The necessity of imposing numerous release conditions is called into question.

Evaluation of two community outreach forensic psychological services

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to gauge service user’ perspectives on the effectiveness of two community outreach forensic psychological services in London for people with personality disorder and serious mental illness who pose a risk of sexual and violent offending. Both services are guided by principles of the Good Lives Model and circles of support and accountability. Design/methodology/approach – The research design was mixed qualitative and quantitative, incorporating thematic evaluation of semi-structured interviews with service users and a rating-scale constructed specifically for this purpose. Findings – Outcomes suggest both services are broadly successful in achieving their aims to: first, enhance psychological well-being and general quality of life; second, promote links with other agencies and broader social inclusion; and third, monitor and manage risk of re-offending. Research limitations/implications – However, there are limitations. Cause and effect cannot be inferred and outcomes are not generalizable to other contexts partly as a result of the small sample size. Another possible issue is that participants spoke favorably about their care through fear of being evaluated negatively or through fear of compromising the support they receive. To control for these and other possible confounding variables, further more rigorous research is required. Practical implications – The current findings can be used as a guide to help services engage and manage people with personality disorder and serious mental illness who are at risk of further serious offending. Originality/value – It is suggested here that the current findings contribute to the body of evidence supporting initiatives that aim to address recidivism by enabling offenders to develop a more positive identity through social and community inclusion and integration.

Caring for a Man Who Sexually Abused Children

Child sex abuse is a serious health concern, involving considerable pain, suffering, and hurt for victims and their families, as well as generating public interest and scrutiny. Such abuse damages, weakens, but perhaps surprisingly does not necessarily sever all family ties. In this article, people from familial networks within which child sexual abuse has occurred recount their experiences of extending compassion and support to a man who has sexually abused children. Crucially, the supporters acknowledge the gravity of child sex abuse and their stories emphasize the need to ensure the safety of the victims of abuse and other children. Our participants attempt to balance the needs of the victims with a continued commitment to supporting offenders so that they are less likely to reoffend. We document how in maintaining ties with an offender, supporters in fact take on elements of an offender’s stigma, and also become tainted. Support narratives offer insights into how society might develop more holistic understandings of the consequences of child sex abuse and ultimately help us understand offenders and the efforts of those around them to provide integrated rehabilitation and to minimize the risk of reoffending.

The Effects of Probation or Parole Agent Relationship Style and Women Offenders’ Criminogenic Needs on Offenders’ Responses to Supervision Interactions

Although prior research revealed that in noncorrectional and correctional settings, staff relationship style affects client outcomes, there has been little study of this effect for women offenders. The present study investigated effects of two dimensions of relationship style (probation or parole agent–reported supportiveness and punitiveness) on female clients’ reports of responding to interactions with their agents with anxiety, reactance, and a sense of self-efficacy to avoid a criminal lifestyle. Results of a longitudinal study of 330 women on probation or parole revealed that agent supportiveness elicited lower anxiety and reactance and higher crime-avoidance self-efficacy. Agent punitiveness elicited greater anxiety and crime-avoidance self-efficacy. Moderation effect analysis showed that punitive style was most related to anxiety and reactance for women at lowest risk for reoffending. In contrast, supportiveness was most related to positive outcomes for the highest risk women. The research findings suggest areas for future theory development and approaches to effective correctional practice.

Risk and Needs Assessment: Constitutional and Ethical Challenges

Across jurisdictions, the criminal justice system is enamored with the evidence-based practices movement. The idea is to utilize the best scientific data to identify and classify individuals based on their potential future risk of reoffending, and then to manage offender populations according to risk and criminogenic needs. Risk-needs tools now inform a variety of criminal justice decisions, ranging from pre-trial outcomes, to sentencing, to post-conviction supervision. While evidence-based methodologies are widely exalted as representing best practices, constitutional and moral objections have been raised. Risk-needs tools incorporate a host of constitutionally and morally sensitive factors, such as demographic and other immutable characteristics. The constitutional analysis herein engages equal protection, prisoners’ rights, due process, and sentencing law. In addition, the text examines the philosophical polemic aimed uniquely at sentencing as to whether risk should play any role at all in determining punishment. The Article then appraises potential alternatives for risk-needs methodologies if the concerns so raised by critics prove legitimate. Any option comes with significant consequences. Retaining offensive variables incites political and ethical reproaches, while simply excising them weakens statistical validity of the underlying models and diminishes the promise of evidence-based practices. Promoting an emphasis on risk at sentencing dilutes the focus of punishment on blameworthiness, while neglecting risk and needs sabotages a core objective of the new penological model of harnessing the ability to identify and divert low risk offenders to appropriate community-based alternatives.

Analyse qualitative de rapports d’expertise psychiatrique concernant des faits de pornographie infantile

ObjectivesThere are different forms of sexual assault against minors. Child pornography is the realization of deviant fantasies. It has very specific characteristics with regard to its realization and use, and hence to the political actions taken to deal with it. A child pornographer is defined as an adult who uses the sexual depiction of a child for his own interests or for the commercialization of the images. Confusion can be made between child pornographers and online offenders. The online offender is a person who uses the Internet to feed his sexual fantasies virtually, or to groom a child in order to provoke actual contact. Most often, online offenders are child pornographers, because they use child pornography to facilitate contact with the victim. It is important to understand the psychopathological aspects of child pornographers in order to provide appropriate treatment. Understanding the phenomenon of child pornography is complex, because it is sometimes a matter of deviance without leading to actual abuse, and it is this virtual aspect that appears to be encouraged by the Internet. It has probably increased certain deviant behaviours that were previously limited by inhibition. Psychiatric assessments are carried out at the request of the law courts. Forensic psychiatrists have to give psycho-criminological information to explain the offense and to allow the prosecutor to make appropriate decisions. The characteristics of child pornographers are varied. In this study, we analysed forensic assessments in child pornography cases to provide guidelines based on the characteristics of child pornographers described in the literature. Material and methodsWe analyzed the data of 69 forensic reports. We had previously identified items which are traditionally evaluated in general psychiatric assessments and specific items relating to the characteristics of child pornographers reported in the literature. Using this performance measurement matrix and the 69 forensic reports, we identify the items which appeared in under 10% of the forensic reports. ResultsWe noted 20 items found in under 10% of the forensic reports. In this paper, we describe 11 of these items which appeared to us to be the most important: diagnosis hypothesis, risk of reoffending, time between the offense and the assessment, fantasies, inconsistency when talking about the offense, sense of virtuality, difficulty talking about sexuality, biographical data, addiction to images, information given by the prosecutor to the forensic psychiatrists, currently receiving psychotherapy. ConclusionsIt is important to carry out qualitative analyses of forensic assessments. Forensic psychiatrists can find a considerable amount of information in the scientific literature to help in their assessments, because they do not always know everything about all deviant behaviours. Standardization is required in the field of forensic psychiatry. In France, forensic psychiatric assessments are made without supervision. There is also interpersonal variation in the assessments. Knowledge about deviance has developed, revealing more specific characteristics about each specific behaviour. The importance of the legal consequences makes this standardization essential. The aim of this qualitative analysis is to produce guidelines to help forensic psychiatrists assess child pornographers. Moreover, it is important to pursue this research in order to improve knowledge about the psychopathological and socio-demographic aspects of offenders. It is also important that the data used for research are as complete as possible. Most often, the only possibility to study deviant behaviour is to use forensic material.

Corrections education and employment assistance 'Down Under': Current and emerging practices and paradigms

This article provides a view of contemporary Australia in terms of patterns of offending and incarceration, the characteristics of its correctional systems, vocational education and training (VET) within correctional settings, and post-release employment of prisoners and offenders serving community-based orders (CBOs). A two-year case study of employment assistance for 2,458 Australian prisoners and offenders serving CBOs was evaluated. The voluntary 12-month programme targeted participants at moderate to high risk of reoffending. Overall, employment outcomes were positive with more than one-third of registrations resulting in employment. Employment outcomes varied for gender and participant status (prisoner/offender). Recidivism outcomes were analysed for the whole programme and for a random sample of 600 prisoner participants. Results indicated a very low overall recidivism rate (7.46 per cent) for programme participants, and comparison of pre-programme and post-release recidivism showed reduced recidivism on three recidivism measures. The findings are contextualized in terms of current thinking and emerging practices in offender treatment, with a focus on reintegration as ecological system engagement and integrated systems of support as central to promoting positive lifestyle change.

An investigation of firesetting recidivism: Factors related to repeat offending

PurposeFiresetters have traditionally been considered dangerous repeat offenders. However, the specific risk factors associated with firesetting recidivism have not been consistently tested in representative samples. It is also unclear whether individuals whose offending is limited to firesetting are at increased risk of reoffending when compared with firesetters who have more versatile offending. This study aimed to: (1) determine the rate of firesetting recidivism in a representative sample of firesetters before the courts; and (2) determine the psychiatric and criminogenic factors that are related to firesetting recidivism.MethodsThe study employed a data linkage approach to examine the psychiatric and criminal histories of 1052 firesetters convicted of arson between 2000 and 2009 in Victoria, Australia. The characteristics of those who reoffended, over a follow‐up period of 2.5–11 years, by committing arson and arson‐related offences were compared with those who went on to reoffend in other ways but not arson. An improper model was used to determine which of the tested variables could meaningfully predict firesetting recidivism.ResultsThe rate of firesetting recidivism, based on charges, was very low (5.3%) compared with the rate of general recidivism (55.4%); the vast majority of firesetting recidivists were mixed (criminally versatile) offenders (91%). The study found that general criminality, firesetting history, and psychiatric disorder were associated with firesetting recidivism.ConclusionsWhen assessing risk of firesetting recidivism, clinicians need to consider general criminality in addition to fire‐specific history, and the potential impacts of mental disorder on recidivism.

The impact of community notification on the management of sex offenders in the community: An Australian perspective

Western Australia recently passed legislation that allows information about convicted sex offenders to be disclosed to the general public. After critically appraising the rationale behind community notification, this paper considers its impact on offenders’ reintegration into the community and their subsequent risk of reoffending, its potential deterrent effect and usefulness as a management tool, and implementation issues. This discussion identifies several factors that potentially moderate the effectiveness of community notification schemes and some directions for future research and the development of policy and practices in this area.

Sexual Assault in the Military: A Discussion of the Current Status and Future Prevention

Sexual Assault in the Military: A Discussion of the Current Status and Future Prevention

Violence Risk Assessment in Lithuania

Evaluating the risk of violence and re-offending with recognized and validated instruments is a new practice in Baltic countries such as Lithuania. Actuarial assessment and structured professional judgment methods were developed in North American and Western European nations and have recently been adjusted to local settings for research and practice. The present manuscript reviews research, contemporary practice, and relevant policies regarding violence risk assessment in the Baltic region. Specifically, the focus will be on the implementation and patterns of use for risk assessment instruments in Lithuania. The correctional and forensic mental health systems of the country will be described, followed by an overview of government-supported risk assessment tools. The manuscript reviews Lithuanian research on these tools and offers directions for future research and practice.

Intervening to Prevent Repeat Offending Among Moderate- to High-Risk Domestic Violence Offenders

Clear directions about best strategies to reduce recidivism among domestic violence offenders have remained elusive. The current study offers an initial evaluation of an RNR (Risk, Needs, and Responsivity)-focused second-responder program for men accused of assaulting their intimate partners and who were judged as being at moderate to high risk for re-offending. A quasi-experimental design was used to compare police outcomes for 40 men attending a second-responder intervention program to 40 men with equivalent levels of risk for re-offense who did not attend intervention (comparison group). Results showed that there were significant, substantial, and lasting differences across groups in all outcome domains. In terms of recidivism, rates of subsequent domestic-violence-related changes were more than double for men in the comparison group as compared with the intervention group in both 1-year (65.9% vs. 29.3%) and 2-year (41.5% vs. 12.2%) follow-up. Changes in the rates of arrest were consistent with reductions in men's general involvement with police, with men in the intervention group receiving fewer charges for violent offenses, administrative offenses, and property offenses over the 2 years following intervention than men in the comparison group. Not surprisingly, these differences result in a much lower estimated amount of police time with intervention men than for comparison men. Results are discussed with reference to the possible impact of sharing information with men about their assessed risk for re-offending within a therapeutic justice context.