Risk Of Reoffending Research Articles

Personalised monitoring and feedback on risk-relevant features in forensic case formulation: a series of case-studies in men who have committed sexual offences

ABSTRACT The current study investigated to what extent personalised information on interrelated risk-relevant behavioural, psychological, and contextual features obtained using experience sampling method (ESM) can be deployed to inform forensic case formulations of adult men with a history of sexual offences. Five adult men in outpatient forensic treatment for committing sexual offences monitored personal risk-relevant features using ESM and discussed the resulting feedback report with their therapist. Data were collected using the Twente engagement with Ehealth technologies Scale, an online questionnaire, a semi-structured interview and log data. Participants reported increased awareness of personal patterns of risk-relevant features and their possible association with the risk of sexual reoffending. The participants did not perceive the ESM procedure as burdensome or intrusive. Obtaining personalised information on risk-relevant features by ESM was feasible and achievable for adult men with a history of sexual offences. Insights derived from ESM measurements could enhance traditional forensic case formulation. PRACTICE IMPACT STATEMENT Combining experience sampling method (ESM) and traditional forensic case formulation can help adult men with a history of sexual offences to better understand patterns in their risk-relevant characteristics. A more thorough understanding of such patterns may improve treatment plans focused on desistance of sexual reoffending.

Preventing Child Sexual Abuse and the Use of Child Sexual Abuse Materials: Following up on the German Prevention Project Dunkelfeld.

Sexual interest in minors (i.e., pedophilia and hebephilia) is considered a risk factor for Child Sexual Abuse (CSA) and the use of Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM). This study examined the long-term development of CSA, CSAM use, associated cognitions, and quality of life among self-referred, help-seeking individuals diagnosed with pedophilic or hebephilic disorder (PHD) outside the judicial system. Of the 110 eligible men who had undergone therapy for PHD due to psychological distress or risk of offending, 56 were available for follow-up assessment 1-11 years after treatment. Behavioral manifestations, offense-supportive cognitions, and quality of life were evaluated using interviews and psychometric measures. At follow-up, 7.7% of participants with a history of CSA had re-offended, whereas 89.1% of previous CSAM users reported recidivism, although with less severe material. No new CSA offenses occurred among those without prior CSA. Treatment led to increased cognitive victim empathy and reductions in CSA-supportive and CSAM-supportive attitudes, but only the latter improvement persisted through follow-up. Participants exhibited elevated CSA-supportive attitudes relative to community norms at all time points and diminished quality of life at follow-up. Pedophilic and hebephilic disorder carry a persistent risk of sexual offending, particularly regarding CSAM use. Therapeutic gains in offense-supportive cognitions may erode over time without ongoing care. A comprehensive public health approach encompassing early detection, prevention, and expanded treatment access that addresses both the risk of reoffending and overall well-being is crucial for reducing sexual victimization and improving mental health outcomes for individuals from this target group.

Examining the link between perceived prison conditions and probability of recidivism among women convicts in Tihar Jail: insight on incarceration

Purpose The purpose of this study is to fill the research gap that exists with respect to availability of research on correctional facilities in India, which restricts one’s ability to comprehend the prison environment and recidivism from the perspective of the inmates. By examining inmates’ perception of their environment within correctional facilities, researchers and policymakers can identify specific aspects of the prison climate that may contribute to increased risks of reoffending. This understanding would not only help to improve prison conditions and encourage humane treatment, but it is also essential to support the inmates in their efforts to find and retain employment, achieve self-sufficiency and personal growth. It is also necessary to encourage the inmates to participate in a variety of therapeutic and prison programmes both inside and outside of prison to help them reintegrate into the community. Design/methodology/approach The present research investigated the association between negative perceptions of prison climate and the heightened probability of recidivism among a sample of 37 adult women convicts incarcerated in Tihar Prisons, Delhi. Data were obtained by administering CSS-M Hindi version and PCQ Hindi version to the convicts in person in the prison premises. Furthermore, the collected data were subjected to Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient to analyse the correlation between the probability of recidivism and the dimensions of prison climate. Findings Results suggested that negative perceptions of relationships in prison (staff–inmate relationship, inmate–inmate relationship), safety, facilities (cell conditions, food quality, etc.), meaningful activities (recreation, education, yard time, etc.) and autonomy in prison were inversely associated with a higher probability of recidivism. The results from the current study demonstrated that recognising and taking cognisance of the inmates’ perceptions of prison environment on their well-being and their probability of recidivism is crucial for the successful implementation of interventions and policies within correctional systems. Research limitations/implications The sample size procured for the research was relatively small, as the number of available women convicts in Tihar Prison at the time of the research was limited, making it difficult to generalise the findings. In addition, this investigation included solely women convicts, while undertrials and detenues were excluded, and thus does not represent all the individuals in conflict with the law. Practical implications The findings of the current investigation allow for the formulation of potential policy recommendations for improving the prison climate, which in turn might consequently impact future criminality. Social implications Policymakers may use these findings when developing policies that foster a rehabilitative prison environment, as it can help in reducing the incidence of recidivism. Originality/value This study is unprecedented in its approach, especially with respect to the Indian context, as it sheds light on the relatively understudied association between the variables of perceived prison climate and the probability of recidivism among women convicts in India. The findings of this study add to the current body of research indicating that subjective experience and perception of prison climate have a substantial influence on the likelihood of recidivism.

Criminogenic and Non-Criminogenic Factors and Their Association With Reintegration Success for Individuals Under Judicial Orders in Canada.

Justice-involved individuals who reach the end of their full prison sentence no longer benefit from the supervision and rehabilitation services offered by probation or parole. Some of these individuals, who have been assessed to be a high risk for sexual and violent reoffending and deemed to pose a significant violence risk in the community if released, are placed on a judicial order in Canada, and police are asked to supervise and manage the risk of these individuals. In the current study, the files of 45 high-risk, justice-involved individuals, who completed their sentences, were released from a Canadian prison into the province of Alberta, and supervised by police under a judicial order, were reviewed for the presence of criminogenic and non-criminogenic needs over the first year of release. The associations between these needs and proximal reintegration outcomes were examined. Our findings revealed that basic needs and responsivity issues were prevalent in the early part of supervision; however, these factors were unrelated to proximal reintegration success. In contrast, criminogenic needs were prevalent and associated with poorer reintegration. This study reinforces the role that police can play in monitoring and addressing criminogenic needs with the goal of reducing recidivism and employing the help of non-police supports to address non-criminogenic needs.

Sport-based interventions and health in prisons: The impact of Twinning Project on prisoner wellbeing and attitudes.

Social isolation and lack of support networks are key factors contributing to mental health problems among incarcerated people, which, in turn, are associated with an increased risk of reoffending. Enabling prisoners to form positive group relations and social identities is one approach to address the cycle of ill health and incarceration. We examine the impact of a football-based intervention, the Twinning Project, on prisoners' wellbeing and social relations. Longitudinal and correlational analyses of data from N = 164 UK prisoners show how social bonding is linked with significant boosts to psychological need satisfaction, life satisfaction, efficacy beliefs as well as higher levels of wellbeing.

Cumulative Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) and Recidivism: A Meta-Analysis

This meta-analysis quantitatively synthesizes existing literature to investigate the relationship between aggregations of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and recidivism among court-involved youth and adults. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed, and moderation analyses were conducted. Sixteen studies (published n = 12), encompassing 101,778 unique participants (girls/women = 21.1%; adults n = 1,204), met the inclusion criteria. A small overall effect size revealed that an accumulation of ACEs increased the odds of reoffending. The relationship between ACEs and recidivism was only statistically significant for the subgroup of studies using youth samples. In addition, ACEs only predicted recidivism in the subgroup of published studies (compared to dissertations). Other moderators (gender, study location, recidivism time frame) were not significant. Our results suggest that courts, particularly youth courts, would benefit from screening for cumulative ACEs to help identify those most at risk for reoffending and in need of intervention.

Healthcare expenditures for people with substance use disorders in drug courts compared to their peers in traditional courts

Individuals within the criminal justice system are at greater risk of substance use–related morbidity and mortality and have substantial healthcare needs. In this quasi-experimental study, we assessed utilization patterns of Massachusetts Medicaid Program (MassHealth) services and associated expenditures among drug court probationers compared to a propensity score–matched sample of traditional court probationers. Risk of reoffending, employment status, age, and living arrangement data were used to calculate propensity scores and match probationers between the two court types, producing a final sample of 271 in each court (N=542). Utilization of services and associated expenditures were analyzed using a two-part model to address the skewed distribution of the data and to control for residual differences after matching from the perspective of the payer (i.e., MassHealth). The largest categories of MassHealth spending were prescription pharmaceuticals, hospital inpatient visits, and physician visits. In the unadjusted analysis, drug court probationers exhibited greater MassHealth services utilization and expenditures than traditional court probationers. However, drug courts enrolled more females, more people at higher risk of reoffending, and more people with opioid use disorders. After controlling for differences between the two court types, the difference in MassHealth services utilization and associated expenditures did not reach statistical significance. Drug court probationers were more likely to engage with healthcare services but did not incur significantly greater expenditures than traditional court probationers after controlling for differences between the samples.

Perseverance reduces whereas impulsivity increases the risk of reoffending

By law, every criminal verdict describes the norm violation in question. To date, the use of this information for prognostic purposes has been standardized only for sex offenses. This study presents a content-analytic approach to the material. A theory-based coding system allows for systematic tracing of the offender’s affective and regulatory processing during norm violation, targeting the entire action sequence: initial activation affect (positive vs. negative), impulsivity vs. intentionality, affect regulation, and coping with intention-implementation difficulties. In a sample of N = 304 males convicted of violent and/or sexual offenses, the processing variables were investigated with respect to (a) objective measurability, (b) relationships with established reoffending risk markers, and (c) their (incremental) performance in predicting reoffending. With respect to objectivity (a), the inter-rater agreement (n = 111) varied widely among the variables (intraclass correlation range 0.03–0.62). Regarding risk markers (b), significant associations were found with the Level of Service Inventory–Revised (LSI-R) subscales criminal history, alcohol/drugs, emotional/personal, and attitudes/orientation. The Crime Scene Behavior Risk Measure for sexual offenses (n = 106) correlated with psychological processing variables for the items multiple juvenile offenders and male victim. Two variables emerged as relevant for predicting recidivism (c): negatively motivated impulsivity predicted violent reoffending, while persistence when coping with implementation difficulties negatively predicted sexual and general reoffending. These relationships statistically mediated the predictive contribution of actuarial risk tools (LSI-R/crime scene behavior risk). Psychological processes during norm violation as reported in verdicts appear to represent underexploited information within risk assessment and beyond.

Rural Recidivism and Its Influencing Social Environmental Factors

Rural recidivism is a complex phenomenon that is influenced by a range of social environmental factors, particularly in the context of stark economic disparities between rural and urban areas. Rural communities often face challenges in the larger social environment, such as limited access to education, employment and social services, which can increase the risk of reoffending. This study aims to identify social environmental variables that encourage recidivism in rural areas. Using quantitative methods with a cross-sectional approach, this study involved 100 former prisoners living in rural areas. Data was collected through a survey measuring various socio-economic aspects, including education level, employment status, income, family relationships, and distance from the city center. The results showed that several social environment variables such as low education, unemployment, low income, negative family and friendship relationships, and living close to urban areas played a significant role in promoting recidivism in rural areas. In conclusion, to reduce recidivism rates in rural areas, comprehensive and targeted interventions are needed. Programs that focus on improving access to education and job training, as well as job creation in rural areas, are essential. In addition, efforts to improve family relationships and provide psychosocial support for ex-offenders should also be increased. These integrated interventions are expected to create a more supportive social environment for ex-detainees, so that they can build stable and productive lives without returning to crime.

Dr. J. W. van den Berg, Beyond the sum of its parts: Towards a network approach of risk of sexual reoffending (KU Leuven, 11 december 2023)

Dr. J. W. van den Berg, Beyond the sum of its parts: Towards a network approach of risk of sexual reoffending (KU Leuven, 11 december 2023)

Evaluating layperson interpretation of actuarial sexual violence risk data: A multi-method comparison of risk communication with attention to gender bias.

Forensic clinicians are often called upon to help courts determine the likelihood that someone will continue to commit sexually violent acts in the future. The utility of these evaluations depends largely on how effectively the results are communicated to and understood by the trier of fact. Actuarial results, such as those commonly reported in sexual offense risk assessments, appear particularly challenging for laypersons to understand. Using a representative sample of 206 U.S. adults, this study examines three methods of communicating actuarial risk via simulated expert testimony on participants' ratings of a hypothetical evaluee's risk of sexual re-offending. The results suggested that all participants, regardless of how results were communicated, over-estimated the examinee's risk level relative to the expert's probabilistic findings, but tended to agree with the expert's categorical predictions. Participants who were only shown actuarial data consistently rated the evaluee as more dangerous and likely to commit future sexually violent acts. Additionally, it was found that gender significantly impacted participants' perceptions, such that women found the evaluee more dangerousness and desired greater social distance from him. This study has implications for best practices regarding expert communication of actuarial results in cases involving sexual violence.

A literature review of outcome and treatment options after acquired brain injury: Suggestions for adult offenders using knowledge from the general population.

Acquired brain injury (ABI) is a major health problem, often with negative effects on behaviour and mental health as well as cognition. Prevalence of ABI is exceptionally high among offenders and increases their re-offending risk. Information on risk factors for ABI and its outcomes among offenders that could guide effective treatment for them is, nevertheless, scarce and dispersed. However, there is a more substantial literature about the general population that could inform work with brain-injured offenders, especially when selecting for samples or subgroups with similar relevant characteristics, such as lower socio-economic status (SES), pre-injury lower tested intelligence score (<85) and pre-injury mental health problems. To explore brain injury data from non-offender samples of otherwise similar socio-economic and mental health and ability characteristics to offenders then, first, to describe their untreated outcomes and, secondly, outcomes after frequently used interventions in these circumstances, noting factors associated with their effectiveness. Three databases were systematically searched for the years 2010-2022; first, using terms for brain injury or damage and cognitive (dys)function, mental health or quality of life. Second, in a separate search, we used these terms and terms for interventions and rehabilitation. In the second review, studies were selected for clear, distinguishable data on age, sex, SES and lifestyle factors to facilitate inferences for offenders. A narrative analytical approach was adopted for both reviews. Samples with characteristics that are typical in offender groups, including lower SES, lower pre-injury intelligence quotient (<85), prior cognitive impairments and prior mental health problems, had poorer cognitive and behavioural outcomes following ABI than those without such additional problems, together with lower treatment adherence. With respect to treatment, adequate motivation and self-awareness were associated with better cognitive and behavioural outcomes than when these were low or absent, regardless of the outcome measured. More complex pre-injury mental health problems and social disadvantages typical of offenders are associated with poorer post-brain injury recovery. This paper adds to practical knowledge by bringing together work that follows specific outcome trajectories. Overall, succesful ABI-interventions in the general population that aim at pre-injury difficulties comparable to those seen among offenders, show that personalising injury-specific treatments and taking account of these difficulties, maximised positive outcomes.

The effectiveness of the offender personality disorder pathway: a propensity score-matched analysis

ABSTRACT Offenders with severe personality pathology are at significantly increased risk of serious and violent offending. In England and Wales, offenders who are likely to meet criteria for a diagnosis of personality disorder are managed within a network of ‘Offender Personality Disorder Pathway’ services. We conducted a retrospective cohort study over 6 years, using linked routine datasets, to examine the effectiveness of these services on male offenders (n = 28,321). We compared the outcomes of those who received a simple case formulation and had not been referred to Pathway services (the ‘Comparison group’), with a group of offenders who had received a complex case formulation and been referred to Pathway services (the ‘Treatment group’). Over time, significant improvements occurred in re-offending risk scores, and lower rates of behavioural disturbance among both Treatment and Comparison groups of offenders. However, no statistically significant differences were detected in the rates of improvement between Treatment and Comparison groups. Offending rates in both groups significantly increased over time, although there was no significant difference in the increase in offending rates between the Treatment and Comparison groups. Currently, there is no statistical evidence that the Pathway is associated with changes in offender behaviour.

Unsupervised short leave in forensic addiction treatment: Is there an influence on treatment progress?

Abstract Short leave is an integral part of forensic addiction treatment in Germany. Individuals with addiction problems who have offended can be admitted to forensic addiction treatment institutions to receive treatment for their addiction disorder and reduce their risk of reoffending. During this treatment, short leave is implemented to allow the practising of an abstinent lifestyle, enhance treatment motivation, and enable the individual to stay connected with the community. A critical step is the unsupervised short leave, which comes with benefits but also risks for the individual and the community. Short leave (especially unsupervised short leave) bears the risk of incidents such as new offences, drug relapses or absconding. This study examines the influence of unsupervised short leave on treatment progress. It builds on the methodology from a previous study of patients in forensic psychiatric hospitals and uses a pre-post design with follow-up. Furthermore, the impact of incidents during short leave on treatment progress is analysed. The sample consists of 157 patients in forensic addiction treatment in Germany. The results suggest that unsupervised short leave can enhance the treatment progress of patients in forensic addiction treatment. However, incidents during short leave can have a negative effect on treatment progress.

Big Data, Behavioral Genetics and Risk of Future Offending

A convergence of trends in assessing the future risk of reoffending could result in morally questionable inputs into the criminal process. Advances in the analysis of DNA and increases in the availability of information about people gleaned from social media might allow for new inferences to be drawn against offenders during the sentencing process. We explore how developments in forensic DNA analysis methods and law enforcement DNA databases in conjunction with information about an offender’s developmental environment could lead the prosecution to postulate a high risk of recidivism and thus argue for a longer sentence. We then consider some reasons why such a prosecution strategy might be troubling. In doing so, we focus on issues related to the inferential process, discrimination, privacy and constitutive luck.

Evidence-based sentencing and scientific evidence.

Evidence-based sentencing (EBS) is a new name for an aspiration that has deep roots in criminal law: to apply the sentence most appropriate to each offender's risk of reoffending, in order to reduce that risk as far as possible. This modern version of the traditional sentencing goals of rehabilitation and incapacitation fits into the broader approach of so-called "evidence-based public policy." It takes the view that the best existing evidence for reducing reoffending are modern structured risk assessment tools and claims to be able to achieve several goals at once: reducing reoffending, maintaining high levels of public safety, making more efficient use of public resources, and moving criminal policy away from ideological battles by basing it on the objective knowledge provided by the best available scientific evidence. However, despite the success of this approach in recent years, it is not clear to what extent it succeeds in correctly assessing the risk of individual offenders, nor whether it achieves its intended effect of reducing recidivism. This paper aims to critically examine these two issues: the quality of the scientific evidence on which EBS is based, and the available data on the extent to which it achieves (or does not achieve) its intended goals.

Predicting the Risk of Re-Offending in Child-to-Parent Violence Using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth.

Child-to-parent violence occurs when children engage in violent behaviour towards family members; the principal victim is often the mother. The risk assessment instruments used to identify the risk and protective factors in youth offenders who perpetrate child-to-parent violence are not specific to this type of offense. This study aims to describe the child-to-parent violence group in relation to the risk and protective factors they present in comparison with the group of young people who committed an assault offence. The sample for this study consists of two groups of youth offenders. The first group committed child-to-parent violence, and the second group has committed a violent crime against individuals to whom they are not related. Young people who commit child-to-parent violence have higher scores on the SAVRY risk factors and lower scores on the SAVRY protective factor than young people who have committed an assault offence. The results reveal the importance of identifying the risk and protective factors presented by youth offenders who commit child-to-parent violence in order to create specific intervention programs for the needs and strengths presented by this group of young people.

Procedural Justice, Perceived Legitimacy, and Reoffending Behavior: In Police and Court Setting

Despite the increasing body of procedural justice research studying individuals involved in the criminal justice system, this strand of literature has used different approaches to measure procedural justice and legitimacy. The present study assesses the different theoretical assumptions of these approaches across two criminal justice settings, namely, policing and courts. In addition, we examine how procedural justice stemming from interactions with police officers and judges is related to legitimacy and reoffending behavior postrelease. Using data on adult detainees who entered Dutch pretrial detention centers, our findings support the theoretical assumptions regarding procedural justice and felt obligation to obey the law in both criminal justice settings. Furthermore, path analyses show that perceptions of procedural justice arising from encounters with police officers and judges are related to a higher sense of obligation to obey the law, which in turn is associated with a lower risk of reoffending.

The views of victim/survivors of sexual violence about perpetrator post-release measures

ABSTRACT People convicted of sexual offences are increasingly subject to a range of post-prison measures designed to reduce their risk of reoffending, including civil commitment, public offender registers, electronic monitoring and Circles of Support and Accountability. The views of a range of stakeholders, including policy-makers, legislators, and perpetrators themselves, have previously been documented about these measures. However, very little research has sought to document victim/survivors’ views, despite victim/survivors having a vested interest in the efficacy of such measures. This study began to address this gap by investigating the views of victim/survivors of sexual violence about post-release measures for perpetrators. To do this, the research reported here involved conducting semi-structured qualitative interviews with 33 victim/survivors of sexual violence. The research found that victim/survivors favor post-release measures that reflect either purely consequentialist or a hybrid of consequentialist and deontological motivations. The study’s findings will be of relevance to legislators and policy-makers, who increasingly see value in incorporating the views of victim/survivors into the development of measures designed to respond to perpetrators of sexual violence.

ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 predict recidivism for men adjudicated for child sexual exploitation material offending.

Risk assessment is essential to effective correctional practice. For individuals with contact sexual offenses, many risk tools are available. There are fewer options, however, for individuals whose sexual offending exclusively involves child sexual exploitation materials (CSEM; legally referred to in Canada and the United States as child pornography). The present study examined the predictive validity of the ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools among men with CSEM offenses. We expected these tools to show moderate predictive validity across study groups. We compared the scales' discrimination and calibration across three groups: (a) 1,042 men with contact sexual offenses against children (baseline comparison), (b) 228 men with exclusive CSEM offending (no contact sexual offenses), and (c) 80 men with both contact sexual offenses and CSEM offenses. We found that the ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 total scores and items had comparable (and often better) discrimination for men with CSEM offending compared with contact sexual offending against children in the prediction of any sexual recidivism, violent recidivism, and any recidivism. Calibration analyses indicated that the overall sexual recidivism rates for the median ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 scores were similar for men with exclusive CSEM offenses compared with men with any contact offending against children. Almost all of the sexual recidivism for the CSEM-exclusive group involved further CSEM offenses. This study supports the use of these tools to rank-order men with CSEM offending in terms of their risk of reoffending and to help direct treatment and management efforts. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).