Perseverance reduces whereas impulsivity increases the risk of reoffending

Abstract

By law, every criminal verdict describes the norm violation in question. To date, the use of this information for prognostic purposes has been standardized only for sex offenses. This study presents a content-analytic approach to the material. A theory-based coding system allows for systematic tracing of the offender’s affective and regulatory processing during norm violation, targeting the entire action sequence: initial activation affect (positive vs. negative), impulsivity vs. intentionality, affect regulation, and coping with intention-implementation difficulties. In a sample of N = 304 males convicted of violent and/or sexual offenses, the processing variables were investigated with respect to (a) objective measurability, (b) relationships with established reoffending risk markers, and (c) their (incremental) performance in predicting reoffending. With respect to objectivity (a), the inter-rater agreement (n = 111) varied widely among the variables (intraclass correlation range 0.03–0.62). Regarding risk markers (b), significant associations were found with the Level of Service Inventory–Revised (LSI-R) subscales criminal history, alcohol/drugs, emotional/personal, and attitudes/orientation. The Crime Scene Behavior Risk Measure for sexual offenses (n = 106) correlated with psychological processing variables for the items multiple juvenile offenders and male victim. Two variables emerged as relevant for predicting recidivism (c): negatively motivated impulsivity predicted violent reoffending, while persistence when coping with implementation difficulties negatively predicted sexual and general reoffending. These relationships statistically mediated the predictive contribution of actuarial risk tools (LSI-R/crime scene behavior risk). Psychological processes during norm violation as reported in verdicts appear to represent underexploited information within risk assessment and beyond.