Risk Of Hand, Foot, And Mouth Disease Research Articles

Association between air pollution, meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence in Zhejiang Province: A Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling study

Temperature and humidity are known to influence seasonal patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) transmission. However, the effect of air pollution and climate-air pollution interaction on the intensity of HFMD epidemics is poorly understood. This study aims to quantify the exposure-response effects of air pollution on HFMD risk by level of meteorological indicators in Zhejiang Province. A spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model was used to determine the exposure-response association between air pollution, meteorological factors and the relative risk (RR) of HFMD. The model was fitted to monthly HFMD case data for the 92 counties in Zhejiang Province between January 2013, and December 2021. We assessed both linear interaction effects between air pollutants and meteorological factors on HFMD, and the modification role of extreme weather conditions on the nonlinear air pollutant-HFMD association. A 10 μg/m³ increase in PM10 and NO2 concentration raised the HFMD risk by 6.6% (RR = 1.066, 95% CI: 1.042, 1.092) and 20.8% (RR = 1.208, 95% CI: 1.162, 1.256) respectively. HFMD was negatively associated with O3 (RR = 0.980, 95% CI: 0.968, 0.993), SO2 (RR = 0.820, 95% CI: 0.776, 0.868) and CO (RR = 0.770, 95% CI: 0.621, 0.956). Temperature, humidity, and precipitation positively interacted with most air pollutants on HFMD, while wind speed had a negative interaction effect. In higher temperature conditions, the HFMD risk associated with PM10 increased. Elevated humidity levels amplified the risk associated with PM10, as did CO concentrations within a certain range. Heavy rainfall intensified the risk of HFMD associated with PM10, SO2, and CO. Results of this study showed that air pollution was associated with HFMD incidence, with different climate factors playing various modification roles in the associations and primarily leading to increased risk under extreme conditions. These findings provide a theoretical basis for personal protection and government prevention and control measures.

Assessing the modification impact of vaccination on the relationship of the Discomfort Index with hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guizhou: A multicounty study.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a major public health issue in China while temperature and humidity are well-documented predictors. However, evidence on the combined effect of temperature and humidity is still limited. It also remains unclear whether such an effect could be modified by the enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccination. Based on 320,042 reported HFMD cases during the summer months between 2012 and 2019, we conducted a study utilizing Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNM) and time-varying DLNM to examine how China's HFMD EV71 vaccine strategy would affect the correlation between meteorological conditions and HFMD risk. The incidence of HFMD changed with the Discomfort Index in an arm-shaped form. The 14-day cumulative risk of HFMD exhibited a statistically significant increase during the period of 2017-2019 (following the implementation of the EV71 vaccine policy) compared to 2012-2016 (prior to the vaccine implementation). For the total population, the range of relative risk (RR) values for HFMD at the 75th, 90th, and 99th percentiles increased from 1.082-1.303 in 2012-2016 to 1.836-2.022 in 2017-2019. In the stratified analyses, Han Chinese areas show stronger relative growth, with RR values at the 75th, 90th, and 99th percentiles increased by 14.3%, 39.1%, and 134.4% post-vaccination, compared to increases of 22.7%, 41.6%, and 38.8% in minority areas. Similarly, boys showed greater increases (24.4%, 47.7%, 121.5%) compared to girls (8.1%, 28.1%, 58.3%). Additionally, the central Guizhou urban agglomeration displayed a tendency for stronger relative growth compared to other counties. Although the EV71 vaccine policy has been implemented, it hasn't effectively controlled the overall risk of HFMD. There's been a shift in the main viral subtypes, potentially altering population susceptibility and influencing HFMD occurrences. The modulating effects of vaccine intervention may also be influenced by factors such as race, sex, and economic level.

Effects of extreme meteorological factors and high air pollutant concentrations on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Jining, China.

The evidence on the effects of extreme meteorological conditions and high air pollution levels on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is limited. Moreover, results of the available studies are inconsistent. Further investigations are imperative to elucidate the specific issue. Data on the daily cases of HFMD, meteorological factors and air pollution were obtained from 2017 to 2022 in Jining City. We employed distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) incorporated with Poisson regression to explore the impacts of extreme meteorological conditions and air pollution on HFMD incidence. We found that there were nonlinear relationships between temperature, wind speed, PM2.5, SO2, O3 and HFMD. The cumulative risk of extreme high temperature was higher at the 95th percentile (P95th) than at the 90th percentile(P90th), and the RR values for both reached their maximum at 10-day lag (P95th RR = 1.880 (1.261-2.804), P90th RR = 1.787 (1.244-2.569)), the hazardous effect of extreme low temperatures on HFMD is faster than that of extreme high temperatures. The cumulative effect of extreme low wind speeds reached its maximum at 14-day lag (P95th RR = 1.702 (1.389-2.085), P90th RR = 1.498(1.283-1.750)). The cumulative effect of PM2.5 concentration at the P90th was largest at 14-day lag (RR = 1.637 (1.069-2.506)), and the cumulative effect at the P95th was largest at 10-day lag (RR = 1.569 (1.021-2.411)). High SO2 concentration at the P95th at 14-day lag was associated with higher risk for HFMD (RR: 1.425 (1.001-2.030)). Our findings suggest that high temperature, low wind speed, and high concentrations of PM2.5 and SO2 are associated with an increased risk of HFMD. This study not only adds insights to the understanding of the impact of extreme meteorological conditions and high levels of air pollutants on HFMD incidence but also holds practical significance for the development and enhancement of an early warning system for HFMD.

Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Yangzhou from 2017 to 2022: a time series study.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a significant public health issue in China, and numerous studies have indicated a close association between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors. This study aims to investigate the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD in Yangzhou City, Jiangsu Province, China. HFMD case reports and meteorological data from Yangzhou City between 2017 and 2022 were extracted from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and the Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively. A generalized additive model (GAM) was employed to assess the exposure-response relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD. Subsequently, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to explore the exposure-lag-effect of meteorological factors on HFMD. HFMD in Yangzhou City exhibits obvious seasonality and periodicity. There is an inverted "U" shaped relationship between average temperature and the risk of HFMD, with the maximum lag effect observed at a temperature of 25°C with lag 0 day (RR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.74-2.47). As the duration of sunshine and relative humidity increase, the risk of HFMD continuously rises, with the maximum lag effect observed at a sunshine duration of 12.4 h with a lag of 14 days (RR = 2.10, 95% CI: 1.17-3.77), and a relative humidity of 28% with a lag of 14 days (RR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.01-1.64). There is a "U" shaped relationship between average atmospheric pressure and the risk of HFMD, with the maximum effect observed at an atmospheric pressure of 989 hPa with no lag (RR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.25-1.69). As precipitation increases, the risk of HFMD decreases, with the maximum effect observed at a precipitation of 151 mm with a lag of 14 days (RR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.19-2.53). Meteorological factors including average temperature, average atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, precipitation, and sunshine duration significantly influenced the risk of HFMD in Yangzhou City. Effective prevention measures for HFMD should be implemented, taking into account the local climate conditions.

City-level meteorological conditions modify the relationships between exposure to multiple air pollutants and the risk of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease in the Sichuan Basin, China.

Several studies have examined the effects of city-level meteorological conditions on the associations between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) risk. However, evidence that city-level meteorological conditions modify air pollutant-HFMD associations is lacking. For each of the 17 cities in the Sichuan Basin, we obtained estimates of the relationship between exposures to multiple air pollutants and childhood HFMD risk by using a unified distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Multivariate meta-regression models were used to identify the effects of city-level meteorological conditions as effect modifiers. Finally, we conducted subgroup analyses of age and sex to explore whether the modification effects varied in different subgroups. The associations between PM2.5/CO/O3 and HFMD risk showed moderate or substantial heterogeneity among cities ( statistics: 48.5%, 53.1%, and 61.1%). Temperature conditions significantly modified the PM2.5-HFMD association, while relative humidity and rainfall modified the O3-HFMD association. Low temperatures enhanced the protective effect of PM2.5 exposure against HFMD risk [PM2.5 <32.7 μg/m3 or PM2.5 >100 μg/m3, at the 99th percentile: relative risk (RR) = 0.14, 95% CI: 0.03-0.60]. Low relative humidity increased the adverse effect of O3 exposure on HFMD risk (O3 >128.7 μg/m3, at the 99th percentile: RR = 2.58, 95% CI: 1.48-4.50). However, high rainfall decreased the risk of HFMD due to O3 exposure (O3: 14.1-41.4 μg/m3). In addition, the modification effects of temperature and relative humidity differed in the female and 3-5 years-old subgroups. Our findings revealed moderate or substantial heterogeneity in multiple air pollutant-HFMD relationships. Temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall modified the relationships between PM2.5 or O3 exposure and HFMD risk.

Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on HFMD risk in China: A spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective.

Understanding geospatial impacts of multi-sourced influencing factors on the epidemic of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is of great significance for formulating disease control policies tailored to regional-specific needs, yet the knowledge is very limited. We aim to identify and further quantify the spatiotemporal heterogeneous effects of environmental and socioeconomic factors on HFMD dynamics. We collected monthly province-level HFMD incidence and related environmental and socioeconomic data in China during 2009-2018. Hierarchical Bayesian models were constructed to investigate the spatiotemporal relationships between regional HFMD and various covariates: linear and nonlinear effects for environmental covariates, and linear effects for socioeconomic covariates. The spatiotemporal distribution of HFMD cases was highly heterogeneous, indicated by the Lorenz curves and the corresponding Gini indices. The peak time (R2 = 0.65, P = 0.009), annual amplitude (R2 = 0.94, P<0.001), and semi-annual periodicity contribution (R2 = 0.88, P<0.001) displayed marked latitudinal gradients in Central China region. The most likely cluster areas for HFMD were located in south China (Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hainan) from April 2013 to October 2017. The Bayesian models achieved the best predictive performance (R2 = 0.87, P<0.001). We found significant nonlinear associations between monthly average temperature, relative humidity, normalized difference vegetation index and HFMD transmission. Besides, population density (RR = 1.261; 95%CI, 1.169-1.353), birth rate (RR = 1.058; 95%CI, 1.025-1.090), real GDP per capita (RR = 1.163; 95%CI, 1.033-1.310) and school vacation (RR = 0.507; 95%CI, 0.459-0.559) were identified to have positive or negative effects on HFMD respectively. Our model could successfully predict months with HFMD outbreaks versus non-outbreaks in provinces of China from Jan 2009 to Dec 2018. Our study highlights the importance of refined spatial and temporal data, as well as environmental and socioeconomic information, on HFMD transmission dynamics. The spatiotemporal analysis framework may provide insights into adjusting regional interventions to local conditions and temporal variations in broader natural and social sciences.

Associations between ambient air pollutants and childhood hand, foot, and mouth disease in Sichuan, China: a spatiotemporal study

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a major public health concern in the Asia–Pacific region. Previous studies have implied that ambient air pollution may affect the incidence of HFMD, but the results among different regions are inconsistent. We aimed to deepen the understanding of the associations between air pollutants and HFMD by conducting a multicity study. Daily data on childhood HFMD counts and meteorological and ambient air pollution (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, CO, O3, and SO2) concentrations in 21 cities in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2017 were collected. A spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model framework was established, and then a distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) was constructed to reveal exposure-lag-response relationships between air pollutants and HFMD while controlling for spatiotemporal effects. Furthermore, given the differences in the levels and seasonal trends of air pollutants between the basin region and plateau region, we explored whether these associations varied between different areas (basin and plateau). The associations between air pollutants and HFMD were nonlinear, with different lag responses. Low NO2 concentrations and both low and high PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations were associated with a decreased risk of HFMD. No significant associations between CO, O3, and SO2 and HFMD were found. The associations between air pollutant concentrations and HFMD were different between the basin and plateau regions. Our study revealed associations between PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 concentrations and HFMD, deepening the understanding of the relationships between air pollutants and HFMD. These findings provide evidence to support the formulation of relevant prevention measures and the establishment of an early warning system.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease and influencing factors in China from 2011 to 2018

Objective: To analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China, explore the association of socioeconomic, population and health services factors with the incidence of HFMD in China, and provide information for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods: Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to fit the data of HFMD, evaluate the spatiotemporal variation of HFMD, and identify the potential association between the risk of HFMD and social, economic, population and health services. Results: From 2011 to 2018, a total of 17 118 050 HFMD cases, including 2 283 deaths, were reported in China. The reported incidence showed a fluctuating increase trend from 2011 to 2014, and a fluctuating decrease trend from 2014 to 2018. Meanwhile, there was a fluctuating decrease trend of mortality rate. The incidence of HFMD had spatial clustering, with the highest incidence in southern China with hot spot and high risk areas, and the lowest incidence in northwestern China where cold spot and low risk areas were found. The risk for HFMD was associated with GDP per capita (RR=3.54), number of industrial enterprises above designated size of 10 000 people (RR=1.61), urbanization rate (RR=3.00), birth rate (RR=2.36), number of beds in medical institutions per 10 000 people (RR=3.40), and green area in parks per capita (RR=0.57). Conclusions: The hotspot area for HFMD prevention and control in China was in the southeast coastal provinces from 2011 to 2018. In order to reduce the incidence of HFMD, it is necessary to increase the green area in parks per capita while accelerating urbanization process.

Complex interaction between meteorological factors on the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease

The relationship between meteorological factors and the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has been well documented. However, researchers have failed to consider the complex interactive relationships among meteorological factors. The weekly number of HFMD cases along with meteorological factors were collected between 2009 to 2017 in four cities in Guangdong Province. We used Bayesian kernel machine regression to investigate the nonlinear and interactive relationship between meteorological factors, such as temperature and humidity, on the risk of HFMD. Multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the city-specific effect estimates and identify factors underlying the inter-city heterogeneity. The risk ratios (RRs) for each percentile increase in temperature from the 50th percentile value, while humidity was at its 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile values, were 1.621(95%CI: 1.226, 2.141), 2.638(2.169, 3.208), and 3.734(2.908, 4.792), respectively (Q= 19.132, P interaction< 0.001). In contrast, the RRs for each percentile increase in humidity from its 50th percentile, while holding temperature at its 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile values, were 0.901(95%CI: 0.592, 1.369), 2.026(1.679, 2.448), and 0.884(0.632, 1.238), respectively (Q= 24.876, P interaction < 0.001). Increased wind speed and sunshine duration were also observed to strengthen the impact of other meteorological factors. Furthermore, we found increased gross domestic product per capita and per capital area of parks and green land in city tended to significantly strengthen the interactive effects of humidity on other meteorological factors including sunshine duration (P = 0.013 and 0.042), rainfall (P = 0.017 and 0.035), temperature (P = 0.021 and 0.031), win speed (P = 0.011 and 0.045), and pressure (P = 0.013 and 0.042). Our study contributed further understanding of complex interactions between meteorological factors on the risk of HFMD. Our findings provide epidemiological evidence for meteorological interactions on HFMD, which may provide knowledge for future research on the health effects of meteorological factors.

Long-term air pollution levels modify the relationships between short-term exposure to meteorological factors, air pollution and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in children: a DLNM-based multicity time series study in Sichuan Province, China

BackgroundEpidemiological studies have investigated the short-term effects of meteorological factors and air pollution on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). Several meteorological indicators, such as relative humidity and the diurnal temperature range (DTR), significantly modify the relationship between short-term exposure to temperature and HFMD incidence. However, it remains unclear whether (and how) long-term air pollution levels modify the short-term relationships of HFMD incidence with meteorological factors and air pollution.MethodsWe obtained daily data on meteorological factors, air pollutants, and HFMD counts in children from 21 prefecture-level cities in Sichuan Province in Southwest China from 2015 to 2017. First, we constructed a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) at each prefecture-level site to evaluate the short-term impacts of meteorological variables and air pollutants on HFMD incidence. Then, we assessed the pooled effects of the exposures and incorporated long-term city-specific air pollutant indicators as meta-predictors to examine their potential modification effects by performing multivariate meta-regression models.ResultsWe found that long-term SO2 and CO concentrations significantly modified the short-term relationships between climatic variables and HFMD incidence. Specifically, high concentrations of CO (P = 0.027) and SO2 (P = 0.039) reduced the risk of HFMD at low temperatures. The relationship between relative humidity and HFMD incidence was weakened at high SO2 concentrations (P = 0.024), especially when the relative humidity was below the median level. When the minimum relative humidity (32%) was compared to the median relative humidity (77%), the risk ratio (RR) was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.51–1.17) in the 90th percentile of SO2 (19.6 μg/m3) and 0.41 (95% CI: 0.27–0.64) in the 10th percentile of SO2 (10.6 μg/m3).ConclusionOur results indicated that long-term SO2 and CO levels modified the short-term associations between HFMD incidence in children and meteorological variables. These findings may inform health authorities to optimize targeted public health policies including reducing ambient air pollution and reinforcing self-protective actions to weaken the adverse health impacts of environmental factors on HFMD incidence.

Enterovirus vesicular stomatitis with exanthema: Epidemiological Features and Vaccination

Relevance. Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a disease that is extremely relevant for the Russian Federation. According to modern data, epidemic outbreaks of severe course involving a large number of children are registered in the Russian Federation. At the same time, the mortality rate varies worldwide and can range from 6.46 to 51.00 per 100 thousand population. In addition, the fact that the Russian Federation borders with East and Southeast Asia annually increases the risk of HFMD entering the territory of Russia. Every year, the disease causes more than 2 million hospitalizations in Asia. Aims. According to the literature, to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in the Russian Federation and the world, as well as the prospects for vaccination of this infection. To achieve this goal, open sources hosted in the electronic databases PubMed, Medline and e-Library were used. Publications on enterovirus infection for the period from 2014 to 2022 are analyzed. The WHO (Western Pacific Region) statistics on HFMD were also used. Results. According to the modern literature, HFMD is the most common clinical form of enterovirus infection, which is characterized by high heterogeneity of pathogens. Over the past few years, the incidence of enterovirus infection in many subjects of the Russian Federation has been characterized by an upward trend. The most unfavorable epidemic situation in the Russian Federation is observed on the territory of the Far Eastern Federal District, where the largest number of cases of enterovirus infection is registered. In 2018, 1058 cases of enterovirus infection were detected in the Sakhalin region (222.6 cases per 100 thousand). The structure of enterovirus infection in the Russian Federation is dominated by exanthemic forms, herpangina and gastroenteritis. It is necessary to consider the introduction of vaccination of the child population, since rises in the incidence of enterovirus infection in various regions are registered annually on the territory of the Russian Federation. Vaccines against EV-A71 are already being used in China for epidemic indications. The active circulation of HFMD in the Asia-Pacific region may affect the spread of enterovirus infection in the territory of the Russian Federation, as the risk of imported cases of infection and the formation of epidemic foci of group morbidity increases.

Relationship between meteorological factors, air pollutants and hand, foot and mouth disease from 2014 to 2020

BackgroundMeteorological factors and air pollutants have been reported to be associated with hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics before the introduction of vaccine. However, there is limited evidence for studies with long-term dimensions.MethodsWe collected the daily HFMD counts, weather and air pollution data from 2014 to 2020 in Chengdu. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to assess the associations of meteorological factors and air pollutants on HFMD cases.ResultsFrom 2014–2020, high relative humidity and precipitation and extremely high and low levels of PM10, O3, SO2 and CO increased the risk of HFMD. In pre-vaccination period, extreme high and low temperatures, PM10 and NO2, low precipitation and high concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 significantly increase the risk of HFMD; In post-vaccination period, high relative humidity and low level of CO can significantly increase the incidence of HFMD; During the period of COVID-19, only low temperature will significantly increase the risk of HFMD; Low concentration of air pollutants has the greatest impact on the 6–14 age group, while the high concentration of air pollutants has the greatest impact on the 0–1 age group.ConclusionsOur study suggest that high relative humidity and precipitation and extremely high and low levels of PM10, O3, SO2 and CO increased the risk of HFMD from 2014 to 2020. The results of this study provide a reference for local authorities to formulate intervention measures and establish an environment-based disease early warning system.

Modified effects of air pollutants on the relationship between temperature variability and hand, foot, and mouth disease in Zibo City, China.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) poses a great disease burden in China. However, there are few studies on the relationship between temperature variability (TV) and HFMD. Moreover, whether air pollutions have modified effects on this relationship is still unknown. Therefore, this study aims to explore the modified effects of air pollutants on TV-HFMD association in Zibo City, China. Daily data of HFMD cases, meteorological factors, and air pollutants from 2015 to 2019 were collected for Zibo City. TV was estimated by calculating standard deviation of minimum and maximum temperatures over the exposure days. We used generalized additive model to estimate the association between TV and HFMD. The modified effects of air pollutants were assessed by comparing the estimated TV-HFMD associations between different air stratums. We found that TV increased the risk of HFMD. The effect was strongest at TV03 (4days of exposure), when the incidence of HFMD increased by 3.6% [95% CI: 1.3-5.9%] for every 1℃ increases in TV. Males, children aged 0-4years, were more sensitive to TV. We found that sulfur dioxide (SO2) enhanced TV's effects on all considered exposure days, while ozone (O3) reduced TV's effects on some exposure days in whole concerned population. However, we did not detect significant effect modification by particulate matter less than 10 microns in aerodynamic diameter (PM10). These findings are of significance in developing policies and public health practices to reduce the risks of HFMD by integrating changes in temperatures and air pollutants.

Effects of temperature and PM2.5 on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth in a heavily polluted area, Shijiazhuang, China.

The influence of weather and air pollution factors on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has received widespread attention. However, most of the existing studies came from lightly polluted areas and the results were inconsistent. There was a lack of relevant evidence of heavily polluted areas. This study aims to quantify the relationship between weather factors and air pollution with HFMD in heavily polluted areas. We collected the daily number of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Shijiazhuang, China from 2014 to 2018, as well as meteorological and air pollutant data over the same period. The generalized linear model combined with the distributed lag model was used to study the effect of meteorological factors and air pollutants on the daily cases of HFMD and its hysteresis effect. We found that the dose-response relationship between temperature, PM2.5, and the risk of hand-foot-mouth disease was non-linear. Both low temperature and high temperature increased the risk of hand-foot-mouth disease. The cumulative effect of high temperature reached the maximum at 0-10 lag days, and the cumulative effect of low temperature reached the maximum at 0-3 lag days. The concentration of PM2.5 between 76 and 200 μg/m3 has a certain risk of the onset of hand, foot, and mouth disease, but the extreme PM2.5 concentration has a certain protective effect. In addition, low humidity, low wind speed, and low-O3 can increase the risk of HFMD. Risks of humidity and low concentration of O3 increased as lag days extended. In conclusion, our study found that climate factors and air pollutants exert varying degrees of impact on HFMD. Our research provided the scientific basis for establishing an early warning system so that medical staff and parents can take corresponding measures to prevent HFMD.

Spatiotemporal characters and influence factors of hand, foot and mouth epidemic in Xinjiang, China.

Hand, foot and mouth (HFM) disease is a common childhood illness. The paper aims to capture the spatiotemporal characters, and investigate the influence factors of the HFM epidemic in 15 regions of Xinjiang province from 2008 to 2017, China. Descriptive statistical analysis shows that the children aged 0-5 years have a higher HFM incidence, mostly boys. The male-female ratio is 1.5:1. Through the scanning method, we obtain the first cluster high-risk areas. The cluster time is usually from May to August every year. A spatiotemporal model is proposed to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on HFM disease. Comparing with the spatial model, the model is more effective in terms of R2, AIC, deviation, and mean-square error. Among meteorological factors, the number of HFM cases generally increases with the intensity of rainfall. As the temperature increases, there are more HFM patients. Some regions are mostly influenced by wind speed. Further, another spatiotemporal model is introduced to investigate the relationship between HFM disease and socioeconomic factors. The results show that socioeconomic factors have significant influence on the disease. In most areas, the risk of HFM disease tends to rise with the increase of the gross domestic product, the ratios of urban population and tertiary industry. The incidence is closely related to the number of beds and population density in some regions. The higher the ratio of primary school, the lower the number of HFM cases. Based on the above analysis, it is the key measure to prevent and control the spread of the HFM epidemic in high-risk areas, and influence factors should not be ignored.

Spatial-temporal heterogeneity and meteorological factors of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Xinjiang, China from 2008 to 2016.

The study aims to depict the temporal and spatial distributions of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) in Xinjiang, China and reveal the relationships between the incidence of HFMD and meteorological factors in Xinjiang. With the national surveillance data of HFMD in Xinjiang and meteorological parameters in the study area from 2008 to 2016, in GeoDetector Model, we examined the effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD in Xinjiang, China, tested the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of HFMD risk, and explored the temporal-spatial patterns of HFMD through the spatial autocorrelation analysis. From 2008 to 2016, the HFMD distribution showed a distinct seasonal pattern and HFMD cases typically occurred from May to July and peaked in June in Xinjiang. Relative humidity, precipitation, barometric pressure and temperature had the more significant influences on the incidence of HFMD than other meteorological factors with the explanatory power of 0.30, 0.29, 0.29 and 0.21 (P<0.000). The interaction between any two meteorological factors had a nonlinear enhancement effect on the risk of HFMD. The relative risk in Northern Xinjiang was higher than that in Southern Xinjiang. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis results indicated a fluctuating trend over these years: the positive spatial dependency on the incidence of HFMD in 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2015, the negative spatial autocorrelation in 2009 and a random distribution pattern in 2011, 2013 and 2016. Our findings revealed the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD in Xinjiang. The correlation showed obvious spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The study provides the basis for the government to control HFMD based on meteorological information. The risk of HFMD can be predicted with appropriate meteorological factors for HFMD prevention and control.

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease and Their Influencing Factors in Urumqi, China

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) remains a serious health threat to young children. Urumqi is one of the most severely affected cities in northwestern China. This study aims to identify the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of HFMD, and explore the relationships between driving factors and HFMD in Urumqi, Xinjiang. Methods: HFMD surveillance data from 2014 to 2018 were obtained from the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The center of gravity and geographical detector model were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of HFMD and identify the association between these characteristics and socioeconomic and meteorological factors. Results: A total of 10,725 HFMD cases were reported in Urumqi during the study period. Spatially, the morbidity number of HFMD differed regionally and the density was higher in urban districts than in rural districts. Overall, the development of HFMD in Urumqi expanded toward the southeast. Temporally, we observed that the risk of HFMD peaked from June to July. Furthermore, socioeconomic and meteorological factors, including population density, road density, GDP, temperature and precipitation were significantly associated with the occurrence of HFMD. Conclusions: HFMD cases occurred in spatiotemporal clusters. Our findings showed strong associations between HFMD and socioeconomic and meteorological factors. We comprehensively considered the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors of HFMD, and proposed some intervention strategies that may assist in predicting the morbidity number of HFMD.

The association between apparent temperature and hand, foot, and mouth disease and its spatial heterogeneity in Guangdong, Anhui and Jilin provinces

Objective: To study the association between apparent temperature (AT) and the incidence of hand,foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and its spatial heterogeneity in 46 cities in Guangdong, Anhui and Jilin provinces, and provide scientific evidence for the early warning of HFMD. Methods: The data of HFMD incidence and meteorological factors from 2009 to 2018 in Guangdong province, 2009 to 2015 in Anhui province, and 2013 to 2018 in Jilin province were collected. Distributed lag non-linear models were constructed to investigate the association between AT and the incidence of HFMD in 46 cities from three provinces in China. Meta-analysis was used to pool the city-specific estimates, and Meta-regression was applied to analyze the factors that may cause spatial heterogeneity. Results: The relationship between daily AT and the incidence of HFMD in 46 cities appeared nonlinear. The association in Guangdong was similar to that in Jilin, and the risk of HFMD increased with the increase of AT. While the risk of HFMD in Anhui first increased with the increase of AT, and peaked at 18.1 ℃ and then went down. AT on different levels showed different lag impacts and the higher AT showed greater and longer lag impact. The spatial heterogeneity of associations may have been caused by latitude, longitude, average temperature, and average sunshine hours. Conclusions: AT is a comprehensive index to evaluate the association between temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and the incidence of HFMD. Higher AT may increase the risk of HFMD. The AT and HFMD relationship across spatial heterogeneity varies depending on geographic location and meteorological conditions.

Effect of climate factors on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Malaysia: A generalized additive mixed model.

Climate change is one of the critical determinants affecting life cycles and transmission of most infectious agents, including malaria, cholera, dengue fever, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), and the recent Corona-virus pandemic. HFMD has been associated with a growing number of outbreaks resulting in fatal complications since the late 1990s. The outbreaks may result from a combination of rapid population growth, climate change, socioeconomic changes, and other lifestyle changes. However, the modeling of climate variability and HFMD remains unclear, particularly in statistical theory development. The statistical relationship between HFMD and climate factors has been widely studied using generalized linear and additive modeling. When dealing with time-series data with clustered variables such as HFMD with clustered states, the independence principle of both modeling approaches may be violated. Thus, a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) is used to investigate the relationship between HFMD and climate factors in Malaysia. The model is improved by using a first-order autoregressive term and treating all Malaysian states as a random effect. This method is preferred as it allows states to be modeled as random effects and accounts for time series data autocorrelation. The findings indicate that climate variables such as rainfall and wind speed affect HFMD cases in Malaysia. The risk of HFMD increased in the subsequent two weeks with rainfall below 60 mm and decreased with rainfall exceeding 60 mm. Besides, a two-week lag in wind speeds between 2 and 5 m/s reduced HFMD's chances. The results also show that HFMD cases rose in Malaysia during the inter-monsoon and southwest monsoon seasons but fell during the northeast monsoon. The study's outcomes can be used by public health officials and the general public to raise awareness, and thus, implement effective preventive measures.

Nonlinear effect of temperature on hand, foot, and mouth disease in Lanzhou, China.

To examine the effects of temperature on the daily cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD).Data on the daily cases of HFMD in Lanzhou from 2008 to 2015 were obtained, and meteorological data from the same period were collected. A distributed lag nonlinear model was fitted to reveal the relationship between the daily mean temperature and the daily cases of HFMD.From 2008 to 2015, 25,644 cases were reported, of which children under 5 years of age accounted for 78.68% of cases. The highest peak of HFMD cases was usually reported between April to July each year. An inverse V-shaped relationship was observed between daily mean temperature and HFMD cases; a temperature of 18°C was associated with a maximum risk of HFMD. The relative risk (RR) was 1.57 (95% confidence interval: 1.23-1.23), and boys and children aged 3 to 5 years were populations with the highest risk. The cumulative risks of high temperature (20.2°C and 25.2°C) in the total, age-specific, and gender-specific groups peaked on lag 14 days; RR was higher in girls than in boys and in children aged 1 to 2 years than in other age groups. However, the effects of low temperature (-5.3°C, 2.0°C, and 12.8°C) were not significant for both gender-specific and age-specific patients.High temperature may increase the risk of HFMD, and boys and children aged 3 to 5 years were at higher risks on lag 0 day; however, the cumulative risks in girls and children aged 1 to 2 years increased with the increasing number of lag days.