Abstract
Hand, foot and mouth (HFM) disease is a common childhood illness. The paper aims to capture the spatiotemporal characters, and investigate the influence factors of the HFM epidemic in 15 regions of Xinjiang province from 2008 to 2017, China. Descriptive statistical analysis shows that the children aged 0-5 years have a higher HFM incidence, mostly boys. The male-female ratio is 1.5:1. Through the scanning method, we obtain the first cluster high-risk areas. The cluster time is usually from May to August every year. A spatiotemporal model is proposed to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on HFM disease. Comparing with the spatial model, the model is more effective in terms of R2, AIC, deviation, and mean-square error. Among meteorological factors, the number of HFM cases generally increases with the intensity of rainfall. As the temperature increases, there are more HFM patients. Some regions are mostly influenced by wind speed. Further, another spatiotemporal model is introduced to investigate the relationship between HFM disease and socioeconomic factors. The results show that socioeconomic factors have significant influence on the disease. In most areas, the risk of HFM disease tends to rise with the increase of the gross domestic product, the ratios of urban population and tertiary industry. The incidence is closely related to the number of beds and population density in some regions. The higher the ratio of primary school, the lower the number of HFM cases. Based on the above analysis, it is the key measure to prevent and control the spread of the HFM epidemic in high-risk areas, and influence factors should not be ignored.
Highlights
Hand, foot and mouth (HFM) disease is an infectious disease with the features of high incidence and infectivity, caused by various human enteroviruses [1]
The difference of theoretical and actual cases is calculated by log-likelihood ratio (LLR) statistic
Where n is the observed number of cases within the scan window, N is the total number of cases, E(n) is the expected number of cases within the scan window, and I is an indicator. It is significant for the relative risk (RR) of scanning window if p < 0.01, where p-value can be obtained by Monte Carlo randomization
Summary
Foot and mouth (HFM) disease is an infectious disease with the features of high incidence and infectivity, caused by various human enteroviruses [1]. The main symptoms include fever, oral ulcers, maculopapular rashes, or vesicular sores on hands, feet, or mouths [2]. It can cause aseptic meningitis, respiratory infections, myocarditis, and even the death of some critically ill patients [3]. HFM disease was classified as the class C notifiable infectious disease in China on 2 May 2008. It has attracted extensive attention from the medical and health.
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