Modified effects of air pollutants on the relationship between temperature variability and hand, foot, and mouth disease in Zibo City, China.

Abstract

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) poses a great disease burden in China. However, there are few studies on the relationship between temperature variability (TV) and HFMD. Moreover, whether air pollutions have modified effects on this relationship is still unknown. Therefore, this study aims to explore the modified effects of air pollutants on TV-HFMD association in Zibo City, China. Daily data of HFMD cases, meteorological factors, and air pollutants from 2015 to 2019 were collected for Zibo City. TV was estimated by calculating standard deviation of minimum and maximum temperatures over the exposure days. We used generalized additive model to estimate the association between TV and HFMD. The modified effects of air pollutants were assessed by comparing the estimated TV-HFMD associations between different air stratums. We found that TV increased the risk of HFMD. The effect was strongest at TV03 (4days of exposure), when the incidence of HFMD increased by 3.6% [95% CI: 1.3-5.9%] for every 1℃ increases in TV. Males, children aged 0-4years, were more sensitive to TV. We found that sulfur dioxide (SO2) enhanced TV's effects on all considered exposure days, while ozone (O3) reduced TV's effects on some exposure days in whole concerned population. However, we did not detect significant effect modification by particulate matter less than 10 microns in aerodynamic diameter (PM10). These findings are of significance in developing policies and public health practices to reduce the risks of HFMD by integrating changes in temperatures and air pollutants.