Risk Of Extreme Climate Events Research Articles

Adverse human health effects of climate change: an update.

The world is currently facing a process of climate change, which may adversely impact human health in many different ways. The safety of food, water and urban environments is endangered by the consequences of climate change. Sea level and temperature rise, along with more frequent and longer heat waves, represent only a few of the effects of climate change. The increased risk of extreme climate events (e.g., cyclones, droughts and floods) is another serious public health issue. These adverse effects are enhanced in areas and countries not having the capacity to effectively deal with climate change. We primarily aimed at summarizing the impacts of climate change on public health. A further aim was to identify the most concerning consequences of this phenomenon and the vulnerability factors that amplify the negative effects of climate change. PubMed and other literature databases were used as literature sources for this narrative review based on the search terms 'climate change' and 'diseases categories' up to January 2024, in order to assess the most recent and relevant scientific evidence about the relation between climate change and public health, identify knowledge gaps and priorities for future research. We also screened the websites of major agencies devoted to human health protection and environmental health. Climate change appears to induce a broad spectrum of generally adverse effects on public health. It may increase the risk of infectious diseases, psychiatric disorders, cancer and other diseases. Currently, we are not effectively counteracting this phenomenon, since pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing alongside temperatures. A host of measures are required in order to prevent and fight climate change and related health effects. These include the adoption of a holistic approach and the collaboration of different kinds of expertise in order to design more effective strategies. Special attention should be paid to those who live in disadvantaged countries, and those who are more vulnerable to the adverse health consequences of climate change.

Assessing the impact of very large volcanic eruptions on the risk of extreme climate events

Very large volcanic eruptions have substantial impacts on the climate, causing global cooling and major changes to the hydrological cycle. While most studies have focused on changes to mean climate, here we use a large ensemble to assess the impact on extreme climate for three years following tropical and extratropical eruptions of different sulfur emission strength. We focus on the impact of an extremely large eruption, injecting 40 Tg sulfur into the stratosphere, which could be expected to occur approximately twice a millennium. Our findings show that the eruption would have a profound effect on large areas of the globe, resulting in extremely rare drought events that under normal circumstances would occur once every century becoming very likely. Several regions such as West Africa, South and East Asia and the Maritime continent are particularly affected with the expected climate shifting well outside the usual range, by up to five standard deviations. These results have important consequences as they indicate that a severe drought in multiple breadbasket regions should be expected following a large eruption. The risk of heavy rainfall tends to decrease over the same regions but by a reduced amount, heatwaves become extremely rare, however the chance of extreme Winter cold surges do not increase by a corresponding amount, since widespread parts of the Northern Hemisphere display a winter warming. Our results show that the location of the eruption is crucial for the change in extremes, with overall changes larger for a Northern Hemisphere eruption than a tropical and Southern Hemisphere eruption, although there is a regional dependency. Simulations of different eruptions with similar forcing distributions but with different sizes are consistent with a linear relationship, however for smaller eruptions the internal variability tends to become dominant and the effect on extreme climate less detectable.

Influence of anthropogenic and natural forcings on future changes in precipitation projected by the CMIP6–DAMIP models

AbstractWarming has already changed the patterns of precipitation and increased the risk of extreme climate events. An assessment of the influences from anthropogenic and natural forcings on future changes in precipitation is therefore essential to define appropriate mitigation and adaptation policies. We assess the effects of natural (NAT) and anthropogenic forcings (greenhouse gases [GHG] and anthropogenic aerosols [AA]) on precipitation over land areas simulated under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) SSP2‐4.5 scenario. Our results indicate that changes in precipitation due to GHG forcing, AA forcing and all external forcings (ALL) are projected to increase by about 3.0%–24.8%, 1.1%–6.9% and 4.2%–31.2%, respectively, across most land areas in the twenty‐first century, especially over the mid‐ and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and central Africa, with an increase in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions (PDFs). By contrast, the NAT‐induced changes are relatively small, with a slight increase in the mean of the PDFs. The frequencies of both future extreme precipitation and dry events are projected to increase by 11%–101% and 3%–72%, respectively, over many continental regions under the influence of external forcings, especially under GHG forcing. Fingerprinting detection shows that the signals of GHG (except for Australia), AA and ALL forcing are detectable at the likely level (signal‐to‐noise ratio >0.95; 66% confidence) over most land areas. The GHG signals are stronger and detected earlier (after 2010s, likely level) than the AA signals (after 2060s, likely level).

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Rise of Extreme Temperatures in Eastern Sumatra: Exploring Climate Change Dynamics

The Indonesian region is affected by the monsoon system, which leads to a rainy season in December-March and a dry season in June-September. Global warming caused by human activities is increasing the risk of extreme climate events like floods, droughts, etc. The study aims to analyze the trends and correlations of extreme temperatures in the South Sumatra coastal area and its relationship with the DMI and Nino 3.4 indices. The four-stage research methodology includes data collection, extreme temperature index calculation, trend detection and correlation analysis with ENSO. Results indicate that the region has seen a rise in temperature, with hot day/night temperatures increasing by 0.26-0.29°C per decade and cold day/night temperatures by 2-3°C per 100-1000 years. A strong correlation was found between the DMI index and daily maximum/minimum temperatures, as well as between the Nino 3.4 index and the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR). The study projects that nighttime temperatures will increase faster than daytime temperatures in the future, with a proportional correlation between the Nino 3.4 index and extreme temperatures

Earth System Model Overestimation of Cropland Temperatures Scales With Agricultural Intensity

AbstractIntensive crop growth can modify regional climate by partitioning energy to latent heating through transpiration, cooling growing season temperatures. Recent work shows that cooling associated with agriculture can dampen anthropogenic warming over breadbasket regions. However, it is unknown whether climate models reproduce crop influences on regional climate, and thus the future risk of extreme climate events over global breadbasket regions. We show that models overestimate growing season temperatures and underestimate evapotranspiration (ET) over global croplands, and that these differences increase with cropped area. We trace this warm and dry difference through each model's representation of the surface energy budget, showing that model differences in transpiration, leaf area index, and the ratio of transpiration to total ET drive the overall effect. While the implications of these model deficiencies for future projections are uncertain, they point to the importance of improving representations of crop‐climate processes to better assess breadbasket vulnerability to climate change.

Analysis of the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Extreme Climate Indices in Central China

Using the daily precipitation and temperature data of 101 meteorological stations in four provinces of central China (Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi) from 1988 to 2017, we analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics and periodicity of nine extreme climate indices in central China, using the predefined methods for analyzing extreme climate events, such as a M-K test, a linear trend analysis, and a wavelet analysis. The extreme climate characteristics and changes in central China in the past 30 years were revealed. The results showed that the CSDI was significantly reduced linearly at a rate of −0.19 d/10a, and the WSDI and TXx increased significantly at rates of 0.25 d/10a and 0.30℃/10a, respectively. The CDD decreased significantly at a rate of −1.67 d/10a. The duration of extreme low-temperature and drought events in central China showed a gradual shortening, while the duration of extreme high-temperature events and the high-temperature values increased. The results of the abrupt climate change test showed that some extreme climate indices in central China had significant abrupt climate changes after 2000. Analyzing the cyclicality of each index, it was determined that the extreme climate index in central China had a significant cyclical change every 2–4 years, and the change was more notable after 2000. Analyzing the spatial distribution of the extreme climate indices, it was determined that Jiangxi had the longest duration of all high-temperature events, and was the largest and longest of events of extreme precipitation. It was also determined that the Jiangxi region was at greater risk of extreme climate events in central China. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for climate change trends, local disaster prevention, and mitigation management in central China.

Growth Recovery and Phenological Responses of Juvenile Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Exposed to Spring Warming and Late Spring Frost

Global change increases the risk of extreme climatic events. The impact of extreme temperature may depend on the tree species and also on the provenance. Ten provenances of Fagus sylvatica L. were grown in a common garden environment in Belgium and subjected to different temperature treatments. Half of the one year old seedlings were submitted to a high thermal stress in the spring of the first year, and all plants were exposed to a late spring frost in the second year. The high-temperature treated plants displayed reduced growth in the first year, which was fully compensated (recovery with exact compensation) in the second year for radial growth and in the third year for height growth. Frost in the spring of the second year damaged part of the saplings and reduced their growth. The frost damaged plants regained the pre-stress growth rate one year later (recovery without compensation). The high temperature treatment in the first year and the frost damage in the second year clearly influenced the phenological responses in the year of the event and in the succeeding year. Little population differentiation was observed among the provenances for growth and for phenological responses. Yet, a southern provenance, a non-autochthonous provenance (original German provenance that was planted in Belgium about a century ago) and a more continental provenance flushed earlier than the local Atlantic provenances in the year of the frost event, resulting in more frost damage. Some caution should therefore be taken when translocating provenances as an anticipation of the predicted climate warming.

Climate Change: Causes, Risks, Consequences, Problems of Adaptation and Management (CLIMATE-2019)

The conference “Climate Change: Causes, Risks, Consequences, Problems of Adaptation and Management” was held in Moscow in November 2019. The results of various areas of climate research were presented at the conference, including the diagnosis of modern climate change based on observational data, reanalysis and paleoreconstructions; modeling of current and future climate change; risk assessment of extreme climatic events; determination of the relative role of natural and anthropogenic factors in climate change; studies of the socio-economic consequences of climate change and adaptation to them. The conference was attended by 214 participants from 46 organizations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Roshydromet, universities and others. 72 oral reports were presented, including 15 invited talks, and 86 poster presentations.List of titles 1. Diagnosis of modern climate changes based on observational data, reanalysis, and paleoreconstructions. 2. Modeling of modern and future climate change. 3. The risk of extreme climatic events. 4. The relative role of natural and anthropogenic factors in climate change. 5. Socio-economic consequences of climate change and adaptation to them are available in this pdf.

Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events over East Asia at Different Global Warming Levels

Limiting the global temperature increase to a level that would prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” is the focus of intergovernmental climate negotiations, and the cost-benefit analysis to determine this level requires an understanding of how the risk associated with climate extremes varies with different warming levels. We examine daily extreme temperature and precipitation variances with continuous global warming using a non-stationary extreme value statistical model based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our results show the probability of extreme warm and heavy precipitation events over East Asia (EA) will increase, while that of cold extremes over EA will decrease as global warming increases. A present-day 1-in-20-year heavy precipitation extreme in EA is projected to increase to 1.3, 1.6, 2.5, and 3.4 times more frequently of the current climatology, at the global mean warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C above the preindustrial era, respectively. Moreover, the relative changes in probability are larger for rarer events. These results contribute to an improved understanding of the future risk associated with climate extremes, which helps scientists create mitigation measures for global warming and facilitates policy-making.

Magnitude and Frequency of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and the Associated Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in the Yellow River Basin (1960–2017), China

Since there are many destructive effects caused by extreme climate events in the Yellow River, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the variations of climatic extremes in this key basin. We used a meteorological dataset from 66 stations within the Yellow River basin (YRB) for the period 1960–2017 to calculate magnitude and frequency of precipitation/temperature extremes. We also analyzed the relationships between the main large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs) and precipitation/temperature extremes. The trends in precipitation extremes were nonsignificant, only a few stations were characterized by significantly increasing or decreasing anomalies; this indicates the precipitation intensity may have been strengthened, and the extreme rainfall duration appears to have been reduced during 1960–2017. The trends of magnitudes for “cold” extremes were larger than those for “warm” extremes, changes of trends in frost days were higher than those for summer days, and the trends in increasing warm nights were higher than those of warm days. The influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on temperature extremes outweighed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for the other extreme climate indices. The YRB might be at risk of increased extreme high temperature events, and more attention should be paid to this higher risk of extreme climatic events.

Optimal mangrove restoration through community engagement on coastal lands facing climatic risks: The case of Sundarbans region in India

Restoration of mangrove forests through community involvement offers the promise of reaping multiple environmental dividends while simultaneously helping local communities augment their livelihoods through generating payments from ecosystem services. However, there exist several challenges to the success of such restoration projects. In this paper, one such key challenge, that of the risk of extreme climatic events, is considered. Optimal rate of mangrove restoration on public coastal lands is derived in the presence of a future risk of extreme cyclones decimating the mangrove forests. Using the context of the Sundarbans region of India, which has the largest mangrove forests on the planet, we develop a model of community led restoration efforts where local inhabitants receive credit for carbon sequestered in the process. Results indicate that when communities do not receive outside support through wages or reimbursement of plantation costs, restoration efforts get spread over a longer time horizon. Presence of a risk of future cyclone events that could destroy the restored forests prompts speedier restoration, which may not be an optimal outcome from the perspective of global carbon mitigation efforts. An optimal plan that is primarily concerned with deriving sequestration benefits from newly restored mangroves leads to lower restoration levels in the presence of higher cyclone risks. However, irrespective of the institutional setting under which restoration is incentivized, given the relatively stable nature of underground carbon stored in mangroves, it is optimal to undertake higher restoration efforts when climatic risks are low.

Managing the risk of extreme climate events in Australian major wheat production systems.

Extreme climate events (ECEs) such as drought, frost risk and heat stress cause significant economic losses in Australia. The risk posed by ECEs in the wheat production systems of Australia could be better managed through the identification of safe flowering (SFW) and optimal time of sowing (TOS) windows. To address this issue, three locations (Narrabri, Roseworthy and Merredin), three cultivars (Suntop and Gregory for Narrabri, Mace for both Roseworthy and Merredin) and 20 TOS at 1-week intervals between 1 April and 12 August for the period from 1957 to 2007 were evaluated using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM)-Wheat model. Simulation results show that (1) the average frequency of frost events decreased with TOS from 8 to 0days (d) across the four cases (the combination of locations and cultivars), (2) the average frequency of heat stress events increased with TOS across all cases from 0 to 10d, (3) soil moisture stress (SMS) increased with earlier TOS before reaching a plateau and then slightly decreasing for Suntop and Gregory at Narrabri and Mace at Roseworthy while SMS increased with TOS for Mace at Merredin from 0.1 to 0.8, (4) Mace at Merredin had the earliest and widest SFW (216-260) while Mace at Roseworthy had latest SFW (257-280), (5) frost risk and heat stress determine SFW at wetter sites (i.e. Narrabri and Roseworthy) while frost risk and SMS determine SFW at drier site (i.e. Merredin) and (6) the optimal TOS (window) to maximise wheat yield are 6-20 May, 13-27 May and 15 April at Narrabri, Roseworthy and Merredin, respectively. These findings provide important and specific information for wheat growers about the management of ECE risk on farm. Furthermore, the coupling of the APSIM crop models with state-of-the-art seasonal and intra-seasonal climate forecast information provides an important tool for improved management of the risk of ECEs in economically important cropping industries in the foreseeable future.

The Climate Change Conundrum and the Himalayan Forests: The Way Forward into the Future

The earth’s climate has always been changing, but with current rate of change, forests might not be able to adapt to rapid changes in climate variables, along with increased risk of extreme climate events. Climate change has significantly altered structure, composition and distribution patterns of forests across the globe. The Himalayan forests are sensitive to climate change impacts, but the extent and magnitude of potential response is still not well-understood. Climate change, however, cannot be considered as the only driving force responsible for changes in the type, distribution and coverage of vegetation, as other anthropogenic disturbances equally play a crucial role in accelerating the alterations in this region. With the impeding uncertainties involving climate change and increased dependence of communities on forests and forest-based resources, adaptation must be considered along with mitigation in the foreseeable future. The limited understanding of ecosystem dynamics in the Himalayan region poses a grand challenge for many research programmes in ecology and conservation. The scientific literature shows efforts to model species distribution based on current climate conditions and forecast species distribution based on future climate scenarios. These studies indicate the possibility of extinction and migration of many species; nonetheless, they fail to integrate human influence to changing environmental conditions. Addressing potential impacts of climate change is both urgent and difficult. The hypothesis foretelling the future requires much improvement in its forecasting skills in order to accurately predict the eventual fate for sustainable forest management.

Observed trends and changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes over the Koshi river basin 1975–2010

ABSTRACTThe Koshi river basin is a sub‐basin of the Ganges shared among China, Nepal, and India. The river system has a high potential for investment in hydropower development and for irrigation in downstream areas. The upper part of the basin contains a substantial reserve of freshwater in the form of snow and glaciers. Climate variability, climate change, and climate extremes might impact on these reserves, and in turn impact on systems that support livelihoods, such as agriculture, biodiversity and related ecosystem services. Climatological variability and trends over the Koshi river basin were studied using RClimDex. Daily temperature data (20 stations) and precipitation data (50 stations) from 1975 to 2010 were used in the analysis. The results show that the frequency and intensity of weather extremes are increasing. The daily maximum temperature (TXx) increased by 0.1 °C decade−1 on average between 1975 and 2010 and the minimum (TNn) by 0.3 °C decade−1. The number of warm nights increased at all stations. Most of the extreme temperature indices showed a consistently different pattern in the mountains than in the Indo‐Gangetic plains, although not all results were statistically significant. The warm days (TX90p), warm nights (TN90p), warm spell duration (WSDI), and diurnal temperature range (DTR) increased at most of the mountain stations; whereas monthly maximum and minimum values of daily maximum temperature, TX90p, cool nights (TN10p), WSDI, cold spell duration indicator (CSDI), DTR decreased at the stations in the Indo‐Gangetic plains, while the number of cold days increased. There was an increase in total annual rainfall and rainfall intensity, although no clear long‐term linear trend, whereas the number of consecutive dry days increased at almost all stations. The results indicate that the risk of extreme climate events over the basin is increasing, which will increase people's vulnerability and has strong policy implications.

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China.

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation and temperature: a case study in Yunnan Province, China

Abstract. Spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation and temperature in Yunnan Province, China, were analyzed by using observed daily data at 28 meteorological stations from 1958–2013 in this study. Nine extreme precipitation indices and 6 extreme temperature indices were adopted, and the tendency of those indices was investigated by using Mann–Kendal test method. In order to distinguish the spatial characteristics, the region was divided into 5 regions according to climate and topography, then the characteristics of each region were compared each other. The results indicate that changes of extreme temperature are more sensitive and significant than those of precipitation. The contribution of extreme precipitation to total precipitation presented a significant upward trend, but the annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) did not show significant changes. Both maximum and minimum temperature showed significant increasing tendency while there was not obvious changes for precipitation. The spatial features of extreme precipitation and temperature are similar. It was noted that extreme precipitation and temperature events occurred more frequently in central region where the risk of extreme climatic events was greater than other areas.

Quantifying the impact of forest management on the carbon balance of the forest-wood product chain: A case study applied to even-aged oak stands in France

In this study, we evaluated three different management scenarios in relation to their ability to maximize the carbon balance. The study was carried out within a context of managed even-aged sessile oak stands, and the management scenarios were contrasted in terms of stem density and rotation length. A system of models designed to represent the whole forest-wood product chain was used to assess the carbon balance of each scenario. The boundaries of this system were extended as far as possible to prevent any carbon leaks. Dead organic matter and disposed harvested wood products (HWPs) were taken into account in the assessment. The scenarios were compared in terms of their average stock in the forest and the HWP carbon pools, as well as some additional fluxes. These included: (i) substitution for fossil fuel; (ii) carbon emissions due to HWP processing; (iii) the accumulation of non-degradable carbon in the landfill; and (iv) methane emissions resulting from anaerobic decomposition of disposed HWPs.Results showed that the HWP carbon pools were about 10times smaller than the forest carbon pools. The substitution for fossil fuel constituted the largest positive flux, whereas methane emissions in absence of methane recovery facilities accounted for 40% of the negative fluxes. The burning of wood products for energy was preferable to HWP disposal at the landfill site. As long as the risk of extreme climate events remains marginal, management scenarios that maintain higher stem densities over longer rotation lengths appeared to be favorable to carbon sequestration.

Improving the Accuracy of Estimation of Climate Extremes: Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events; Paris, France, 27–29 September 2010

Climate projections point toward more frequent and intense weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, in a warmer climate. These projections, together with recent extreme climate events, including flooding in Pakistan and the heat wave and wildfires in Russia, highlight the need for improved risk assessments to help decision makers and the public. But accurate analysis and prediction of risk of extreme climate events require new methodologies and information from diverse disciplines. A recent workshop sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and hosted at United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) headquarters in France brought together, for the first time, a unique mix of climatologists, statisticians, meteorologists, oceanographers, social scientists, and risk managers (such as those from insurance companies) who sought ways to improve scientists' ability to characterize and predict climate extremes in a changing climate.

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