Abstract
Limiting the global temperature increase to a level that would prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” is the focus of intergovernmental climate negotiations, and the cost-benefit analysis to determine this level requires an understanding of how the risk associated with climate extremes varies with different warming levels. We examine daily extreme temperature and precipitation variances with continuous global warming using a non-stationary extreme value statistical model based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our results show the probability of extreme warm and heavy precipitation events over East Asia (EA) will increase, while that of cold extremes over EA will decrease as global warming increases. A present-day 1-in-20-year heavy precipitation extreme in EA is projected to increase to 1.3, 1.6, 2.5, and 3.4 times more frequently of the current climatology, at the global mean warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C above the preindustrial era, respectively. Moreover, the relative changes in probability are larger for rarer events. These results contribute to an improved understanding of the future risk associated with climate extremes, which helps scientists create mitigation measures for global warming and facilitates policy-making.
Highlights
According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global mean temperature increased by 0.85 ◦ C (0.65–1.06 ◦ C) over the period 1880–2012 [1].Climate extremes are occurring more frequently in recent decades, with heightening global warming, and these extremes have widespread influences both on the natural ecosystem and the human society [2,3]
We evaluated the model performance before projection research; while the general features of the observed temperature extremes extremes (TXx), TNn, and Rx5day were reasonably reproduced by the model, mild biases were shown (Figures S1 and S2)
The Return value (RV) for precipitation extremes continues to increase with global warming with a relatively uniform increase in Figure 1Rx5day displays distribution the model grid box at that contains
Summary
According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global mean temperature increased by 0.85 ◦ C (0.65–1.06 ◦ C) over the period 1880–2012 [1]. Climate extremes are occurring more frequently in recent decades, with heightening global warming, and these extremes have widespread influences both on the natural ecosystem and the human society [2,3]. There is a general agreement at the global level regarding the nature of the observed and simulated changes in the three indicators despite some differences between observations and simulations. This agreement provides a foundation for future projections
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