Risk Of Crop Failure Research Articles

Site-specific agronomic information and technology adoption: A field experiment from Ethiopia

Smallholder farmers in Africa typically only have access to blanket fertilizer recommendations which are defined over very broad areas and may not be optimal for local production conditions. The response to such recommendations has generally been poor. Using a randomized control trial in Ethiopia, we explore whether targeted extension advice leads farmers to align fertilizer usage to the recommended levels and whether this impacts productivity. We also consider whether coupling the targeted information with agricultural insurance encourages fertilizer investment. Results show that targeted recommendations closed the gap between the amount of fertilizer used and the recommended amounts and this in turn increased productivity and profits. We found no differential effect of the targeted recommendation when coupled with agricultural insurance, suggesting that the risk of crop failure is not a binding constraint to fertilizer adoption in this context, or that farmers do not consider agricultural insurance a useful risk-mitigating mechanism.

EFEKTIVITAS SEKOLAH LAPANG IKLIM STASIUN KLIMATOLOGI DELI SERDANG DALAM MENDUKUNG KETAHANAN PANGAN

The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of SLI activities on the climate adaptive behavior of farmers to support food security in Deli Serdang Regency. The researcher used a quantitative approach with the correlational method. The population is all farmers of the Paluh Getah II Farmer Group, Tanjung Rejo Village, Percut Sei Tuan District, Deli Serdang Regency. The research sample was 56 respondents using the total sample technique. Data collection techniques were carried out through questionnaires. The results showed that there was an effect of SLI activities in the form of conveying information about climate and weather and their deviations, farming innovation, technology transfer and farming analysis able to change the climate adaptive behavior of SLI farmers at Deli Serdang Climatology Station to reduce the risk of crop failure due to extreme weather so that food security can be realized. This is evidenced by the value of t arithmetic > t table which is 3.144 > 2.586 at a significance level of 0.05.

Efficiency Comparison of the Cacao Intercropping Farming in Kolaka Regency

The intercropping system is well-known for its extremely low risk of crop failure, its potential to overcome the risk of fluctuating product prices, and this system can save the production inputs. The study aims to compare the level of technical, allocative, and economic efficiency using the stochastic frontier production function model in the intercropping of cacao with annual crops with the pattern: cacao+coconut+patchouli; cacao+coconut+cashew; and cacao+coconut+banana. This research was conducted from March 2018 until April 2018 by determining the samples in the Kolaka Regency, which covered 17 sub-districts, taken from 3 sub-districts with purposive sampling. Each district was represented by 3 villages with purposive sampling. Each sub-district was represented by9 villages with total random samples of 270 respondents. The analysis used wasa technical, allocative, and economical efficiency analysis based on frontier analysis, with 270 respondents from 9 villages representing 3 sub-districts, using the random sampling method. The results discovered that the cacao intercropping farming system of cacao+coconut+patchouli had better technical, allocative, and economic efficiency values and was more feasible to cultivate compared to other patterns. The research results can be beneficial in developing cacao farmers’ performance relating to the annual intercropping crops. For academics, this research is expected to support the frontier production theory with the stochastic frontier efficiency model in cacao intercropping with annual crops.

Sustainable intensification of maize and wheat cropping system through pulse intercropping

The intercropping of legumes with cereals help to achieve sustainable intensification by their mutual complementarity at efficiently using radiation, nutrients, etc. Several studies indicated such beneficial effects on the other component crop however, little research has been conducted to quantify their effects on the subsequent crop in a cropping system. In this study, the effect of the legume intercropping on the entire cropping system, particularly the maize + legume-wheat system was studied. Four legumes intercropped to maize followed by wheat crop were studied for intensification measures such as wheat equivalent yield (WEY), land equivalent ratio (LER), sustainable value index (SVI), and economic returns. N saving effect of legumes on the subsequent wheat crop was quantified with two N levels. Maize + cowpea-wheat combination was the most productive and economic intercrop combination (LER = 1.71, SVI = 0.96) with an increase in net economic return (43.63%) with a B:C ratio of 1.94. An additional 25% N (37.5 kg ha−1) was saved in the wheat crop when the legume intercropping was undertaken with maize. The results suggest that intercropping is the key to diversification and reduces the risk of crop failures by enhancing land-use efficiency, soil fertility, and economic returns under weather vagaries. This will be beneficial to small and marginal farmers of many countries.

Increasing risks of crop failure and water scarcity in global breadbaskets by 2030

As the greatest water user in the world, the agricultural sector is vulnerable to changes in climate and water resource availability. Understanding the impact of these changes on crop yield is critical in order to achieve and maintain global food security. We analyze output from an ensemble of Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project models to project the probability of rice, soybean, maize, and wheat yield failures across global and national breadbaskets through mid-century. The probability of crop yield failures is projected to be as much as 4.5 times higher by 2030 and up to 25 times higher by 2050 across global breadbaskets. Crop failures are projected to be more likely when effects of CO2 fertilization are ignored. We utilize the open-source Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas to create a Water Scarcity Index composed of ten hydrological variables. The index reveals high water scarcity across crop breadbaskets in India, China, and the United States. If the ability to irrigate breadbaskets was eliminated due to water scarcity, the likelihood of crop failures would increase. Shifts in breadbaskets may cross national borders as crop yields will increase in Canada and decrease in the US as a response to a changing climate. Our analysis highlights top producing agricultural regions that have historically provided the global food system with large quantities of one or more major crops, but will face challenges in continuing to do so due to climate change and growing water scarcity.

Internet of things based humidity control and monitoring system

This study proposes smart monitoring by utilizing IoT in agriculture which aims to assist farmers in monitoring crops in order to reduce the risk of failure. Quantitative method was employed to collect data from the Soil Moisture Sensor & DHT22 which are to read and write data that can be monitored on a cloud server or csv file to evaluate the risk. This monitoring system is created using the Python programming language by utilizing the Raspberry Pi as a microprocessor. The result of this study is data acquisition that is connected to the internet. Data can be accessed at Thingspeak to show indications and crop yields. Analogue form and indicators of water in soil moisture are indicated by colored marks. Proper monitoring shows more accurate crop data that enable the farmers to prevent crops from drying out. This system is expected to reduce the risk of crop failure as well as increase the agriculture productivity.

Climate change impacts on rainfed maize yields in Zambia under conventional and optimized crop management

Maize production in Zambia is characterized by significant yield gaps attributed to nutrient management and climate change threatens to widen these gaps unless agronomic management is optimized. Insights in the impacts of climate change on maize yields and the potential to mitigate negative impacts by crop management are currently lacking for Zambia. Using five Global Circulation models and the WOFOST crop model, we assessed climate change impacts on maize yields at a 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Impacts were assessed for the near future (2035-2066) and far future (2065-2096) in comparison with a reference period (1971-2001). The surface temperature and warm days (above 30 °C) are projected to increase strongly in the southern and western regions. Precipitation is expected to decline, except in the northern regions, whereas the number of wet days declines everywhere, shortening the growing season. The risk of crop failure in western and southern regions increases due to dry spells and heat stress, while crops in the northern regions will be threatened by flooding or waterlogging due to heavy precipitation. The simulated decline in the water-limited and water- and nutrient-limited maize yields varied from 15 to 20% in the near future and from 20 to 40% in the far future, mainly due to the expected temperature increases. Optimizing management by adjusting planting dates and maize variety selection can counteract these impacts by 6-29%. The existing gaps between water-limited and nutrient-limited maize yields are substantially larger than the expected yield decline due to climate change. Improved nutrient management is therefore crucial to boost maize production in Zambia.

Combinations of in-field moisture conservation and soil fertility management reduce effect of intra-seasonal dry spells on maize under semi-arid conditions

• Combining CT and mulching significantly increased soil water retention. • Maize yield was best under a combination of CT, mulching and mineral fertilizer + manure during a low rainfall season. • Under high rainfall, combining RT, mulching and mineral NPK fertilizer + manure gave the best maize yield on sandy soil. • On clay, maize yield was highest under CT, mulching and mineral NPK fertilizer + manure during both low and high rainfall. The high frequency of prolonged intra-season dry spells since the turn of the 21st century continues to heighten risk of crop failure in rainfed cropping systems of Southern Africa including Zimbabwe. This study explored the effects of combining in-field moisture conservation techniques and soil fertility management on maize ( Zea mays L.) productivity under rainfed conditions in semi-arid eastern Zimbabwe. Treatment combinations were co-designed with farmers through participatory approaches, and tested on-farm on sandy and clayey soils over three consecutive seasons (2015/16–2017/18). Two tillage practices namely conventional (CT) and reduced tillage (RT), with 30 % mulch cover of dried thatching grass ( Hyparrhenia filipendula (L.) Stapf) applied either at planting or tasseling or at both stages, were combined with low (35 kg N ha −1 , 14 kg P ha −1 and 3 t ha −1 of manure) and high (90 kg N ha −1 , 26 kg P ha −1 and 7 t ha −1 of manure) fertilizer application rates in a split-split plot design. Intra-seasonal dry spells were more frequent during the first two seasons (i.e. 2015/16 and 2016/17), while the 2017/18 season was rather wet with well-distributed rains. Soil water content varied significantly (p < 0.05) across treatments when a dry spell length was between 3 and 15 days, and 3 and 20 days on sandy and clayey soil, respectively. Conventional tillage retained 9–27% more soil water compared to RT, particularly when combined with mulching. During 2015/16 and 2016/17, seedling emergence occurred earlier by 2 days when mulching was applied at planting, while anthesis-silking interval (ASI) was shorter by 4 days following mulching at tasseling. On the sandy soil, the combination of CT + mulching (at both stages) + high fertilizer rate achieved the highest maize grain yield of 2.6 and 2.8 t ha -1 during the 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively. However, during the wet 2017/18 season, the combination of RT + mulching at planting + high fertilizer rate yielded the best (3.5 t ha -1 ). On clayey soil, CT + mulching (at both stages) + high fertilizer rate gave the highest yields of 2.4, 2.9 and 3.4 t ha -1 in 2015/16, 2016/17 and 2017/18, respectively. Water use efficiency (WUE) was greatest under CT + mulching (at both stages) + high fertilizer rate especially during seasons that had high occurrence of intra-seasonal dry spells. Overall, the combination CT + mulching (at both stages) + high fertilizer rate increased maize yield by over 200 % and 300 % compared to the non-mulched treatments on sandy and clay soil, respectively, particularly during seasons with high incidences of intra-seasonal dry spells. Consequently, the treatment combination achieved the best economic returns during the drier seasons although income returns were reduced during the wetter season because of considerable yield loss due to waterlogging, particularly on the sandy soil. We thus conclude that mulching at strategic crop growth stages in combination with tillage and judicious addition of organic and inorganic fertilizers is a promising agronomic technique for reducing effects of intra-seasonal dry spells on maize productivity in rainfed smallholder cropping systems. Increasing farmer access to organic and inorganic fertilizers is, however, key to accelerated adoption of such agronomic techniques.

Transplanting as an option to cope with abiotic stress in high‐altitude lowland rice production systems in East Africa

AbstractThe current practice of direct seeding in East‐African high‐altitude rice farming systems is constrained by water availability early in the season and low temperatures later in the season at the crop's critical reproductive stage. Thus, productivity is restricted as only short‐duration varieties can be grown due to the risk of crop failure. To fully exploit the yield potential of such rainfed systems, the best combination of crop establishment methods and climatic ‘best fit’ genotypes is required. In this study, nine rice genotypes were evaluated under direct seeding and transplanting in the 2016 and 2017 cropping seasons with the aim of identifying genotype by environment by management combinations best fitting the high‐altitude, rainfed rice production systems. On average across all genotypes, transplanting had a positive yield effect of 18% in 2016 and 23% in 2017. Regarding the phenological development, individual phenophases were not significantly affected by transplanting relative to direct seeding; however, vegetative development stages in transplanted rice tended to be about 15% longer than when direct seeded. Even though transplanting led to extended vegetative growth, the time in the nursery allowed the plants to escape the cold spell late in the season. The results from the current study provide options to adapt cropping calendars by combining genetic resources with targeted crop management, thus improving and stabilizing yields of rainfed lowland rice farming systems at high altitude.

Implementation of integrated farming system of Azolla plants, duck and fish in livestock groups in Baruga village, Bantimurung district Maros regency

An integrated farming system is an effort to utilize all potential energy so that it can be harvested in a balanced manner. The problems of partners in the field of livestock, fisheries and agriculture are that they have not utilized the yard and family labor and there is no touch of technology in improving animal feed, therefore the solution taken in partner villages is to utilize large yards by raising ducks, cultivating Azolla and breeding fish. PT Semen Bosowa in collaboration with Universitas Hasanuddin carried out community service activities in Baruga village in Bantimurung district, Maros regency, South Sulawesi province. The application of the animal husbandry sector in a sustainable agricultural system was the procurement of duck seeds, production of duck eggs and salted eggs. Integration of crops, livestock and fish using Azolla plants as an alternative feed for ducks, fish and fertilizer. The research concluded that the application of integrated farming systems between plants and livestock increased the income of farmers-breeders, reduced the risk of crop failure due to dependence on one commodity and can be in harmony with nature, easy to be implemented because it used local resources and most importantly was acceptable to the community.

EMPOWERMENT OF FARMERS THROUGH THE INDEPENDENT FARMERS PROGRAM IN BAURENO DISTRICT, BOJONEGORO REGENCY

The agricultural sector is a sector that has a strategic role in the structure of national economic development, however, the agricultural sector has problems that need attention. In response to this, it is necessary to have a government role in reducing losses or overcoming the risk of crop failure which can be done through empowering farmers. The Bojonegoro Regency Government in empowering farmers has an incentive program in the form of an independent farmer program. The purpose of this study was to analyze and describe farmer empowerment through the independent farmer program in Baureno District, Bojonegoro Regency. This research uses descriptive qualitative research methods, with data collection techniques in the form of: observation, interviews, documentation. The results of this study, the farmers in Baureno District felt empowered by the empowerment carried out by the Bojonegoro Regency government through the independent farmer program which was analyzed by the theory of community empowerment stages: enabling, empowering and protecting.Keywords: Community empowerment, farmers, the independent farmer programs.

Quantification of the Impact of Temperature, CO2, and Rainfall Changes on Swedish Annual Crops Production Using the APSIM Model

Ongoing climate change is already affecting crop production patterns worldwide. Our aim was to investigate how increasing temperature and CO2 as well as changes in precipitation could affect potential yields for different historical pedoclimatic conditions at high latitudes (i.e., &amp;gt;55°). The APSIM crop model was used to simulate the productivity of four annual crops (barley, forage maize, oats, and spring wheat) over five sites in Sweden ranging between 55 and 64°N. A first set of simulations was run using site-specific daily weather data acquired between 1980 and 2005. A second set of simulations was then run using incremental changes in precipitation, temperature and CO2 levels, corresponding to a range of potential future climate scenarios. All simulation sets were compared in terms of production and risk of failure. Projected future trends showed that barley and oats will reach a maximum increase in yield with a 1°C increase in temperature compared to the 1980–2005 baseline. The optimum temperature for spring wheat was similar, except at the northernmost site (63.8°N), where the highest yield was obtained with a 4°C increase in temperature. Forage maize showed best performances for temperature increases of 2–3°C in all locations, except for the northernmost site, where the highest simulated yield was reached with a 5°C increase. Changes in temperatures and CO2 were the main factors explaining the changes in productivity, with ~89% of variance explained, whereas changes in precipitation explained ~11%. At the northernmost site, forage maize, oats and spring wheat showed decreasing risk of crop failure with increasing temperatures. The results of this modeling exercise suggest that the cultivation of annual crops in Sweden should, to some degree, benefit from the expected increase of temperature in the coming decades, provided that little to no water stress affects their growth and development. These results might be relevant to agriculture studies in regions of similar latitudes, especially the Nordic countries, and support the general assumption that climate change should have a positive impact on crop production at high latitudes.

Foliar Potassium Sulfate Application Improved Photosynthetic Characteristics, Water Relations and Seedling Growth of Drought-Stressed Maize

Changing climates and frequent spells of drought have increased the risk of crop failure, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, thus multiplying the vulnerability of food-insecure populations. The exogenous application of potassium (K) can potentially ameliorate the adverse effects of drought in maize by maintaining cell osmotic potential and turgidity, provided its optimum doses are applied. The present experiment comprised two maize cultivars, viz. Islamabad Gold (drought tolerant) and Azam (drought susceptible), grown under well-watered (80% water-holding capacity (WHC)), mild drought (60% WHC) and severe drought (40% WHC) conditions. Different doses of K, viz. 0%, 1% and 2%, were also tested to screen out the most superior concentration. Drought stress markedly reduced root and shoot lengths (25% and 16%, respectively) along with their dry weights (20% and 10%, respectively). Moreover, a substantial reduction in leaf relative water content (RWC) (24%), stomatal conductance, transpiration and photosynthesis rates, chlorophyll pigments a, b and total chlorophyll contents (31%) were recorded, compared with well-watered conditions. However, foliar application of K2SO4 at 2% concentration outperformed other doses by improving growth attributes, RWC (10%), total chlorophyll (9%) and proline (12%) under severe drought conditions. Our findings confirmed the effectiveness of foliage-applied K2SO4 in ameliorating drought effects in rainfed maize; however, more doses and sources of K could be tested for developing it as a potent source to cope with water stress.

Trend, Status, and Challenges of Irrigation Development in Ethiopia—A Review

Ethiopia’s food supply and economy in general is largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Hence, irrigation development is vital to minimize the risk of crop failure and sustain agricultural production. The purpose of this review was to collect published and unpublished information from relevant sources and then review and synthesize key information on the trends and status of irrigation development and challenges threatening its implementation and sustainability. Historically, traditional irrigation based on farmers’ own initiative and indigenous knowledge has been practiced in Ethiopia for over 2000 years. However, well-planned, government-funded medium and large-scale irrigation development started only three decades ago. Specifically, significant progresses have been registered during the implementation of two consecutive five-year plans, the “Growth and Transformation Plans”. Currently, the total area equipped for irrigation has reached some 3.07 million hectares. However, the actual area irrigated is lower than this figure. The challenges facing the irrigation sector are related to study and design, construction or implementation, irrigation management, and lack of other support services such as extension, input services, and market. While the expansion of irrigation is still important, the poor performances and operational management of existing irrigation schemes needs to be given equal attention. As many of the problems are related to capacity and capability limitations, there is an urgent need for institutional and capacity development for the irrigation sector.

LEVEL OF FAILURE RISK BASED ON LAND TYPOLOGY OF PARTICIPANTS OF RICE FARM INSURANCE PROGRAMS IN SOUTH SUMATERA

Risk level in South Sumatra differs based on the land typology in which Buay Madang Timur District in East OKU Regency with typical irrigation rice field typology has different risk level compared to Banyuasin Regency with its tidal land typology. This research was aimed to find out risk failure in two land typologies nad losses due to its risk. The calculation of Z score was used to calculate risk level using cross data section in year 2019. Data were collected from each district with 120 AUTP farmer participants consisted of 60 samples of tidal land typology and 60 technical irrigation. Which 60 samples consisted of 52 unclaimed farmers and 8 claimed farmers. Based Z score calculation of crop failure risk, it was resulted that technical irrigation land typology in OKU Regency had 44% risk level due to rat and planthopper attack, compared to 49% tidal land typology in Banyuasin Regency that caused rat attack. Risk impact due to crop failure was then calculated using the Value at Risk (Var) method. Results showed that crop failure losses in East OKU Regency were equal to Rp. 11.304.361,- for each planting season while in Banyuasin Regency it was Rp. 12.445.273,-. Thus, the impact of crop failure risk in tidal land typology was greater than technical irrigation.

Analysis of Production Factors Affecting Intercropping of Corn and Peanuts in The Pandemic Era (Case Study in Katikupialang, Patawang Village, Umalulu District, East Sumba, Indonesia)

In national development in Indonesia, the agricultural sector is still a very decisive economic force, because around 100 million Indonesians work in the agricultural sector. During this pandemic, support is needed for economic recovery, including how to maintain the availability of sufficient food for the community. Efforts to support food security, among others, by increasing the use of land that is more optimal, and also reducing the risk of crop failure, including the intercropping farming system. The objectives of this study were (1) to determine the production factors that influenced the intercropping of corn and peanuts, (2) to determine the production factors (land area, seeds, fertilizers, drugs and labor) which had the most dominant influence on the intercropping of corn and peanuts. In determining the research area, East Nusa Tenggara deliberately chose East Nusa Tenggara, because it has criteria in accordance with the research objectives, namely Patawang Village, Umalulu District, East Sumba Regency, East Nusa Tenggara, where the staple food of most of the population is maize, and the sampling is done census, where the population is small so that all populations are taken as samples, namely 15 samples. The data analysis uses cost analysis, revenue analysis and income or profit analysis, while to test the hypothesis using: (1) multiple regression analysis, (2) multiple correlation analysis, and (3) partial correlation analysis. From the results of the discussion, it can be concluded that together the production factors of land area, seeds, fertilizer, medicines and labor affect the intercropping of corn and peanuts, and fertilizer is the production factor that most influences it. Suggestions for holding training in making good organic fertilizers, from livestock manure and can be an organic fertilizer business opportunity.

An Empirical Study to Determine Crop Insurance Premium Using Survival Analysis

Crop insurance provides a solution to economic losses experienced by farmers due to the risk of crop failure. The sample of crop survival data from Sukaratu Village in Cianjur-West Java had been analyzed. This research was analyzed the probability of failure based on the empirical study of the survival model. As a result, the probability of a crop failure studied in Sukaratu Village was calculated at 3.27%. Then, the exponential regression model was used to get the waiting time between crop failure events. The crop insurance product was simulated under the rate of premiums and benefits of insurance in several cases.

Collapse and continuity: A multi-proxy reconstruction of settlement organization and population trajectories in the Northern Fertile Crescent during the 4.2kya Rapid Climate Change event.

The rise and fall of ancient societies have been attributed to rapid climate change events. One of the most discussed of these is the 4.2kya event, a period of increased aridity and cooling posited as the cause of societal changes across the globe, including the collapse of the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia. Studies seeking to correlate social and climatic changes around the 4.2kya event have tended to focus either on highly localized analyses of specific sites or surveys or more synthetic overviews at pan-continental scales, and temporally on the event and its aftermath. Here we take an empirical approach at a large spatial scale to investigate trends in population and settlement organization across the entirety of Northern Fertile Crescent (Northern Mesopotamia and the Northern Levant) from 6,000 to 3,000 cal BP. We use Summed Probability Distributions of radiocarbon dates and data from eighteen archaeological surveys as proxies for population, and a dataset of all settlements over ten hectares in size as a proxy for the degree of urbanization. The goal is to examine the spatial and temporal impact of the 4.2kya event and to contextualize it within longer term patterns of settlement. We find that negative trends are visible during the event horizon in all three proxies. However, these occur against a long-term trend of increased population and urbanization supported through unsustainable overshoot and the exploitation of a drier zone with increased risk of crop failure. We argue that the 4.2kya event occurred during a period of unprecedented urban and rural growth which may have been unsustainable even without an exogenous climate forcing.

Winter wheat residue impact on soil water storage and subsequent corn yield

AbstractStanding winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) residue can capture snow, reduce soil erosion and water evaporation, and increase crop yields in semi‐arid environments. Solid‐stemmed winter wheat (SSWW) varieties may remain standing longer in the field; however, SSWW consistently yields less than conventional hollow‐stemmed winter wheat (HSWW). This research investigates if the negative economic impact of yield loss of SSWW may be overcome by increasing the subsequent corn (Zea mays L.) yield due to increased snow capture and soil moisture. The experiment covered two cycles of a wheat–corn–fallow rotation in two separate fields between 2016 and 2019 near Sidney, NE. Five wheat varieties were tested (four varieties HSWW and one SSWW). Treatments (variety) were arranged in a randomized complete block design with four replications. ‘Warhorse’ (SSWW) and ‘Settler CL’ (HSWW) had the lowest grain yield (2,119 and 2,153 kg ha−1, respectively) in a drier year. Warhorse (SSWW) residue did not persist standing longer in the field compared with other HSWW varieties. No advantage of SSWW over HSWW was observed in enhancing soil moisture for years with average precipitation during the corn growing season, and consequently, corn yield did not increase. These results suggest that SSWW should be considered only if the risk of crop failure from wheat stem sawfly (Cephus cinctus) would reduce HSWW grain yields below those achieved when using SSWW.

Determining the premium of paddy insurance using the extreme value theory method and the operational value at risk approach

Paddy farming is a source of livelihood for most rural communities in Indonesia. Indonesia as an agrarian country with a tropical climate, where the sun shines all the time and farmers can grow crops throughout the season. However, changes in air temperature, weather, and annual rainfall which sometimes change uncertainly cause changes in cropping patterns, which are caused by minimal water supplies in the dry season and flooding in the rainy season. This uncertainty will certainly increase the risk of crop failure. In addition to the risk of weather, other disturbances from plant pests and plant pests also cause the risk of crop failure, which results in greater losses to farmers. One way to transfer this risk is through a rice agricultural insurance program. This study aims to calculate the premium price using the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) method with the Operational Value at Risk (OpVaR) approach based on weather, pests and plant diseases. In this study, the data used are weather data Pests and plant diseases disturbance in West Java in 2009-2019. The stages in this research, the first step is to determine the estimated threshold value to obtain extreme data, then estimate the parameters using the likelihood method. Data suitability test with Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) was performed using the QQplot test. Risk is determined by the Operational Value at Risk (OpVaR) approach, the results of which are used to calculate the appropriate premium for paddy agricultural insurance.