Abstract
Ongoing climate change is already affecting crop production patterns worldwide. Our aim was to investigate how increasing temperature and CO2 as well as changes in precipitation could affect potential yields for different historical pedoclimatic conditions at high latitudes (i.e., >55°). The APSIM crop model was used to simulate the productivity of four annual crops (barley, forage maize, oats, and spring wheat) over five sites in Sweden ranging between 55 and 64°N. A first set of simulations was run using site-specific daily weather data acquired between 1980 and 2005. A second set of simulations was then run using incremental changes in precipitation, temperature and CO2 levels, corresponding to a range of potential future climate scenarios. All simulation sets were compared in terms of production and risk of failure. Projected future trends showed that barley and oats will reach a maximum increase in yield with a 1°C increase in temperature compared to the 1980–2005 baseline. The optimum temperature for spring wheat was similar, except at the northernmost site (63.8°N), where the highest yield was obtained with a 4°C increase in temperature. Forage maize showed best performances for temperature increases of 2–3°C in all locations, except for the northernmost site, where the highest simulated yield was reached with a 5°C increase. Changes in temperatures and CO2 were the main factors explaining the changes in productivity, with ~89% of variance explained, whereas changes in precipitation explained ~11%. At the northernmost site, forage maize, oats and spring wheat showed decreasing risk of crop failure with increasing temperatures. The results of this modeling exercise suggest that the cultivation of annual crops in Sweden should, to some degree, benefit from the expected increase of temperature in the coming decades, provided that little to no water stress affects their growth and development. These results might be relevant to agriculture studies in regions of similar latitudes, especially the Nordic countries, and support the general assumption that climate change should have a positive impact on crop production at high latitudes.
Highlights
Climate change is expected to have both positive and negative impacts on crop production and food security around the world (Schleussner et al, 2018; Ray et al, 2019), depending on the area considered and on adaptation strategies (Olesen et al, 2011)
The results obtained for the baseline dataset are consistent with the expected productivity in farmer fields for each crop, with average grain yields of 5.4, 4.4, and 5.7 t.ha−1 for barley, oats and spring wheat, respectively, and an average dry matter yield of 11.5 t.ha−1 for forage maize
We used the APSIM crop model to simulate the growth of four crops in five locations in Sweden under various climate scenarios
Summary
Climate change is expected to have both positive and negative impacts on crop production and food security around the world (Schleussner et al, 2018; Ray et al, 2019), depending on the area considered and on adaptation strategies (Olesen et al, 2011). Suitable areas for the cultivation of maize and, to a lesser extent, for wheat, might increase, while no change is expected for oats under future climate for high latitudes (Elsgaard et al, 2012). It is expected that adverse effects could happen at such latitudes, mostly because of extreme climate events, such as droughts (Trnka et al, 2014; Wiréhn, 2018). Swedish agriculture is built to a large extent on rainfed systems, and is dependent upon a recharged soil water profile in spring, and subsequent regular precipitation. Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on Swedish agricultural systems could help to identify upcoming opportunities and challenges
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