Risk Of Conflict Research Articles

Minding the Archipelago: What Svalbard Means to NATO

Although the opportunity, form and level of NATO’s High North engagement have long been a matter of debate, the renewed invasion of Ukraine by Russia and its strategic implications at the global level have dragged a reunified NATO into the Arctic as a fait accompli. Yet, the Arctic is not one uniform bloc. When pondering its involvement, the Alliance should consider the particulars of each Arctic territory in its area of responsibility. The Svalbard archipelago, under the sovereignty of Norway -the most vocal advocate of NATO’s High North increased presence- is one of the Arctic areas falling under NATO’s responsibility. Global geopolitical trends, combined with Svalbard’s specific points of contention, may exacerbate the risk of conflict affecting the archipelago. This paper argues that NATO should consider the security concerns specific to Svalbard when pondering its High North involvement and highlights two elements that should be factored in the Alliance’s strategic and operational thinking over the archipelago. The first relates to the diverging interpretations of Article 9 of the Svalbard Treaty while the second lies in Svalbard’s vulnerability to gray-zone tactics due to its particular legal and geographical features. Bearing these particulars in mind, the paper provides key recommendations for NATO to adopt a tailored approach to the archipelago.

NIGERIA: DECOLONIAL CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND CONFLICT. EVIDENCE FROM COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF THE NIGER DELTA

The paper proceeds on the assumption that decoloniality matters in tackling the global climate crisis, conflict, and development at the community level across countries with high vulnerabilities. Africa remains one of the most vulnerable regions in the world. By examining what decolonisation means in climate adaptation and the experience of six communities in three states in the Niger Delta of Nigeria, this article contributes to the conceptualization of the decolonial discourse of climate adaptation, development and conflict understood as conditions favourable to the crisis. I analysed qualitative data obtained from the coastal communities through observation, focus group discussions, and interviews. The results showed a reinforcement of positions in a segment of the literature on decolonial climate adaptation in communities in some parts of the world. Migration, alternative sources of livelihood, embarkment of shorelines, skills development, vocations, and infrastructure development are among legitimate adaptive measures local communities are adopting. At the same time, maladaptive measures such as piracy, kidnapping, illegal oil refining, and gangsterism are common. These antisocial behaviours lead to conflict and contribute to making climate change a very complex problem. Decolonial climate adaptation requires collaborative interventions at the level of the community, sub-national, national, and multilateral fronts. The fact that climate change is a global problem with unequal impact means that the capacity to respond well to it at the community, sub-national, national, regional, continental, and international levels is crucial in addressing the crisis. The role of decoloniality in the handling of the effects of climate change in the community may take the form of integration of local and western knowledge. The decolonial framework would appear to be elastic with a potential conceptual role of critical assessment of existing frameworks, outcomes, impact, and power relations. One of the striking messages in this analysis is the likely role of local knowledge in reducing the risk of social tension and criminal conflict, and the need to strengthen it to increase the resilience and well-being of people. Keywords: Decolonisation, climate, adaptation, development, Africa, Nigeria, coastal communities

Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated Fishing Governance in Disputed Maritime Areas: Reflections on the International Legal Obligations of States

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing in the disputed maritime areas causes significant damage to the marine ecology and authorized fisheries, increases the risk of conflicts among disputed states, and violates human rights at sea. Both unilateral measures and cooperative governance for IUU fishing are often inadequate in these areas. In light, this study aims to clarify the regulatory obligations of relevant states and explore feasible solutions based on international cooperation to promote IUU governance in disputed areas worldwide. The rapidly evolving international fisheries legal framework requires that states, such as coastal states, flag states, port states, or market states, fulfill their respective obligations to prevent and deter IUU and that the presence of disputes in a specific maritime area does not typically constitute grounds for derogation from these obligations or exemption from possible state responsibility. However, the implications of the conflicting claims in disputed maritime areas should be taken into consideration while interpreting and applying international legal rules. Therefore, this study suggests that regional and inter-regional cooperation is necessary for states to fulfill their obligations to regulate IUU fishing and prevent state responsibilities under international law. Parties to the dispute, as well as third parties, are encouraged to participate in the cooperative mechanism in order to coordinate legislative and enforcement measures and advance the institutionalization of IUU fishing regulation in the disputed maritime areas, which will not only advances the effective governance of IUU fishing but also reduces tensions among the disputing states and contributes to the peaceful settlement of the dispute.

“Отмена” России: последствия для культурной дипломатии

After February 24th, 2022, the Western society, mainly the U.S. and European countries, demonstrated a general trend that can be considered “canceling” Russia in response to its special military operation in Ukraine (western companies leaving Russia, athletes under Russian flag being excluded from international sportive events, Netflix suspending its services to Russian clients, etc.). Among other examples, “canceling” Russian culture in terms of high culture (classical music, literature, theatre, ballet, art exhibitions) presents a special case. This article examines “canceling” Russian culture in relation to cultural diplomacy in the framework of wider political confrontation between the U.S. and Russia, since influencing of international public opinion, among other things, through cultural diplomacy remains one the frontlines of the mentioned confrontation. First, the authors analyze the nature and the evolution of “cancel culture” per se, concluding that as a social phenomenon it has been politicized rapidly: from an instrument of stigmatizing perpetrators whose wrongdoings were bordering with actual crime (harassment, racism) “canceling” quickly became a tool to penalize any celebrity for expressing social and political views that do not agree with the mainstream agenda. The case of D. Trump being denied access to social media platforms in January 2021 in accordance with the same logic, while technically remaining the head of the state, was a turning point when “canceling” lost any chance to remain considered as an apolitical practice. However, the attempt to extend the “canceling” to the whole independent state – Russia – in 2022 over the matter of international politics (the conflict in Ukraine) was a new high which made it clear that “cancel culture” evolves into a tool of international political manipulation. In addition, the article examines critical differences in Russian and American approaches to cultural diplomacy. Russia, in terms of influencing international public opinion and promoting its positive image abroad via cultural diplomacy, relies mostly on high culture, which can become an easy target for “cancel culture”. The U. S. in its approach to cultural diplomacy have historically relied more on popular culture that allows them, for example, with the use of movies, not only to construct their own positive image for the international public opinion, but also to promote negative stereotypes about other countries and regions. Thus, cultural diplomacies of two countries are likely to produce two conflicting narratives with completely different instruments. Because of that, even partial and temporary “canceling” of Russian high culture internationally gives a competitive advantage for American cultural diplomacy, especially since the first and foremost aim of every such activity is to create an image, a view, a stereotype afresh, not to change the already existing ones. Thus, permanent interaction of state’s cultural diplomacy with the international public opinion is crucial for efficacy. Bearing in mind the current situation in international relations in general and tensions in Russian-American relations in particular, the article concludes that application of “cancel culture” in such a manner and the consequent disbalance in capabilities of Russian and American cultural diplomacies are likely to further destabilize the international situation and to increase the risk of more conflicts emerging and escalating.

Europeanization of Corruption Prevention Policies in Spain

Discussions on how to prevent corruption are now at the heart of the most influential international organizations and research centers. The best ideas in this field are spreading rapidly through all organizations. This fact has combined with the European response to the economic crisis triggered by COVID-19 to generate a new process of change in Spanish anti-corruption policies. The European Union has created the Next Generation Funds (NGEU) to help the member states hardest hit by the pandemic-related crisis not only to recover from it, but also to put in place the necessary reforms to strengthen their resilience to face similar crises in the future. Given that the management of these funds, according to European regulations, is strongly conditioned not only to ensure their effective and efficient use, but also to avoid any risk of corruption, fraud and conflict of interest, all organizations (public and private) that will have any responsibility in the use of this money are obliged to develop solid control schemes that minimize such risks. This fact represents a unique opportunity for the Europeanization and improvement of Spanish anti-corruption policies. This work analyzes, comparatively with previous anti-corruption reforms, the model of change that this reform represents. It also describes the general lines of hard and soft regulation approved on this matter in Spain, as well as the implementation that the ministries most affected by the management of NGEU are carrying out of the control systems promoted by the EU. This work evaluates its positive, but also the negative ones derived from a vertical, abrupt, and accelerated model of change.

The water management system of the Haute-Comoé sub-watershed under multiple uses pressure in South-West in Burkina Faso

In Burkina Faso, the Upper Comoé sub-basin has a high potential of water, useful for the development of the population's economic activities. These economic activities create the increase needs of water with conflictual relations between the users the last few decades. This study analyses the water resource management system in the face of the risk of community conflicts in the Upper Comoé sub-basin. The methodology integrates literature review, observation and mixed field surveys. The main results are that the driving force of water conflicts are the decrease of its available quantity, the increasing demand of users and land pressure. Indeed, there is a decrease of the quantity of estimated at 7,284,915 m3 (17%) compared to the total demand of the user groups (43,398,317 m3). The relics of riparian formations, once useful for protecting the banks of water surface, have regressed by 4.8% to the benefit of shrubby savannahs (0.9%) and rainfed crops (0.9%) between 1990 and 2020. This degradation of the flora of the banks, linked to the high demand for land, is perceived by 58% of the respondents. To fix the problem, the local communities have created Local water committees. These committees use a water allocation system. At this step, some improvements are necessary, but going from land restoration and riverbank protection actions, these Local water committees are already relevant actors for conflict prevention and equitable water sharing.

Інститут президента в умовах воєнного стану

Traditionally, authorities are formed to ensure the needs of society, guarantees of security and economic opportunities. However as history has proven, as long as there are political ambitions, imperial narratives, and a growing military-industrial complex, there will always be a risk of war or interstate conflicts. That is why basic things are included in the content of the state administration system, which can be used in the conditions of military operations, the emergence of various kinds of conflicts, and at the same time ensure the vital activities of the country. How correct the approaches to the formation of institutions in Ukraine and the mechanisms of their interaction are in this matter, let's try to understand on the example of one of the key institutions of power – the President. The uniqueness and at the same time the complexity of today’s situation is that the events are analyzed in the process of their reproduction, there is no ready-made template, and the model of the near future, which should be formed in the post-war period, is not clearly formed and not presented to society. It was necessary to react to the events here and now, when there was no time for discussions, long talking. Martial law is not a period that creates a comfort zone in the political environment. Therefore, at some point, especially in the early days of a full-scale invasion, the President became the figure on whose actions and decisions society awaited. Hence, during the last year, in the conditions of martial law, the president assumed responsibility for the situation in the country. However, the presence of one person in the public sphere does not mean that all the powers and work processes are behind him and take place exactly as the President needs. More and more often we hear about the role of the President's Office in political matters. However, is the power can be monolithic at least within one institution, or do they have enough powers and mechanisms to influence current processes? In the end, what attempts are being made to strengthen the influence on the president and why – we will try to outline in this material.

ВПЛИВ ГЛОБАЛЬНИХ ТРАНСФОРМАЦІЙ НА БЕЗПЕКОВИЙ РОЗВИТОК НАЦІОНАЛЬНИХ ЕКОНОМІК

In the article, the analysis carried out allows us to single out the traditional (inherent in recent years until 2022) trends that affect the safe development of national economies, which were actualized in 2022. In connection with the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which exacerbated the post-pandemic economic recovery of the countries of the world, there was a return of "old" risks - inflation, the cost-of-living crisis, trade wars, capital outflows from developing markets, large-scale social unrest, geopolitical confrontation, and the threat nuclear war. In the article, the strengthening of the influence of modern trends on the economic security of national economies is justified by relatively new changes in the landscape of global trends, including an unacceptable level of debt, a new era of low growth, low worldwide investment and deglobalization, the decline of human development after decades of progress, the rapid and unlimited development of dual-purpose technologies (civilian and military) and the increasing pressure of the effects of climate change. The conducted study of global trends affecting modern security development, interacting with each other and complementing each other, made it possible to identify the following, among which there were those that were not relevant until 2022: the weakening of the influence of the authorities and the increase of uncertainty; geopolitical fragmentation, which leads to geo-economic wars and increases the risk of inter-domain conflicts; social polarization is one of the most influential factors when it comes to state instability and economic security; individual empowerment and changing values; technological convergence; health and well-being. The author emphasizes that in combination, they form a unique, uncertain security environment of the coming decade. Key words: global transformations, security of the national economy, deglobalization, uncertainty.

Application of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) to understand the spatial dimension of human–wildlife conflict (HWC) risk in areas adjacent to Gonarezhou National Park of Zimbabwe

Application of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) to understand the spatial dimension of human–wildlife conflict (HWC) risk in areas adjacent to Gonarezhou National Park of Zimbabwe

The Islamization and Saffronization of Education: A Threat to the Dialogue of Civilizations?

The article analyzes the contemporary processes of creeping Islamization of the education sphere in Islamic countries and its saffronization (Hinduization) in India. The prerequisites have been the rise of localcultures in Asia and Africa since the late XX century as a reaction to globalization and particularly the rise of the religious factor as an answer to the inefficiency of secular nationalism. Using the material of Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Malaysia, the author shows how Islamists redesign humanities curricula for their own purposes. Using the Indian material, the same is shown regarding the adherents of Hindu nationalism, i.e., Hindutva. Main attention is paid to the process of the dismantling the secular state in Turkey, Pakistan and India in the XXI century as exemplified by the education system. The fading of the laicism principle, the search for an identity through the image of an enemy, and the indoctrination of the youth in the spirit of intolerance hamper the capacity of societies for dialogue. It increases the risks of conflicts between ethnoreligious communities both within and between states.

РИСКИ КОНФЛИКТНОСТИ МАКРОПОЛИТИЧЕСКИХ ИДЕНТИЧНОСТЕЙ В РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫХ ПОЛИТИЧЕСКИХ ПРОЦЕССАХ

The article discusses the risks of conflict of macropolitical identities in regional political processes on the example of the North Caucasus. Macropolitical identity reveals the totality of different ways of identifying with the community that is associated with the state. The significance of group, ethnic and confessional interests for the multi-ethnic population creates risks of politicization of identities. Differences in identity priorities remain between representatives of the North Caucasian peoples and the Russian population of the region. The youth of the North Caucasus is losing traditional identification guidelines and social norms, and is in search of new grounds for self-identification. The erosion of civic identity requires a search for new foundations for strengthening Russian identity, based on broad historical and cultural (civilizational) codes. Stopping ethno-political conflicts, depoliticization of ethnicity is becoming one of the priorities in the management of multi-ethnic communities.

Parents as stakeholders in the school management process

(1) Background: The author analyzes the role of significant risk in school management and the decision-making process including aspirations and potential actions taken by parents as stakeholders. The aim of this article is a preliminary identification of complex school-parents interactions. (2) Methods: The focus of this article is on the Polish education system and the principles of primary and secondary schools operations irrespective of their management style or status. The author focuses on the influence of parents on the school management process and the potential result from these interactions for the school management, using research that includes the analysis of legal acts and the results of a pilot study in the form of an electronic questionnaire addressed to school head teachers and employees, as well as a questionnaire for students' parents of public and private schools. (3) Results: The author presents the results of research on legal acts concerning the functioning of schools in Poland in the context of parental participation. Additionally, the results of pilot surveys of parents and teachers were presented. (4) Conclusions: Against the background of the analysis of the existing legal rules, recommendations were drawn up for further research and the construction of a model of cooperation between the school and parents, in order to minimize the risk of conflicts and actions in opposition to school managers.

Cooperation over the Nile basin water management and the permanent risk of conflicts

Cooperation over the Nile basin water management and the permanent risk of conflicts

A comprehensive analysis of water security from historical perspectives to contemporary challenges

Water is a vital resource for both human life and the economy, and its use and management are critical security issues. The scarcity of water resources has adverse effects on the economy, ecology, and public health, leading to lower crop yields, increased food costs, reduced living standards, and a higher risk of conflict between states. Water security has become a major cause of conflict in recent times. This article provides a historical overview of the term water security and conducts a comparative analysis of the various definitions of water security presented by authors and organizations. The article examines the theories of scholars who have written about water security and concludes that it is a complex concept encompassing various aspects of ensuring the safety of water resources, including preventing pollution, ensuring access to clean drinking water, protecting water bodies, developing mechanisms for managing water resources, and preventing conflicts over water. Furthermore, this article analyzes water security within the framework of national security and provides examples from different regions to emphasize the importance of water for individuals and the state.

Modeling analysis of armed conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2019.

Sub-Saharan Africa has suffered frequent outbreaks of armed conflict since the end of the Cold War. Although several efforts have been made to understand the underlying causes of armed conflict and establish an early warning mechanism, there is still a lack of a comprehensive assessment approach to model the incidence risk of armed conflict well. Based on a large database of armed conflict events and related spatial datasets covering the period 2000-2019, this study uses a boosted regression tree (BRT) approach to model the spatiotemporal distribution of armed conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. Evaluation of accuracy indicates that the simulated models obtain high performance with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) mean value of 0.937 and an area under the precision recall curves (PR-AUC) mean value of 0.891. The result of the relative contribution indicates that the background context factors (i.e., social welfare and the political system) are the main driving factors of armed conflict risk, with a mean relative contribution of 92.599%. By comparison, the climate change-related variables have relatively little effect on armed conflict risk, accounting for only 7.401% of the total. These results provide novel insight into modelling the incidence risk of armed conflict, which may help implement interventions to prevent and minimize the harm of armed conflict.

The Perils of Pro-Government Militias in African Transition Democracy: Case of RSF in the Sudan’s Conflict

Sudan has never experienced peace since it attained its independence from Britain in 1956. Most of the causes of the conflicts in Sudan are related to political domination, economic deprivation, and Islamization. The regime of former President Omar al Bashir since it took power from 1989-2019, it adopted a counter-insurgency strategy of using militias in the peripheral areas to confront alongside its army on the rebellious activities. The review literature on pro-government militias in the context of the unstable Sudan provides debates pertains violent atrocities committed by militias against innocent civilians in the name of counterinsurgency. The 2003 crisis in Darfur region clearly outlines the state strategy of employing the Janjaweed militia who later metamorphosed into Rapid Support Force, a paramilitary group who committed genocide and crime against humanity in the name of fighting the two rebel groups: the Sudan Liberation Army/Movement (SLA/M) and Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). The RSF has grown a powerful paramilitary force that are now battling the State Army for the takeover of the government militarily. The militia group which was once built up by the state now turning a real danger to the transitional democracy. This paper argues that the RSF are the direct beneficiary of the state and are closely linked to its structures, its people, its wealth, and foreign partners. This paper draws a conclusion that amicable solution ought to be sought for the benefit of the marginalized peripheral areas of Darfur, Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile or Sudan with this unstoppable conflict risks to fragment into different autonomous states.

Evaluation of Left-turning Vehicle-bicycle Conflict Risk with Elderly Drivers Using a Coupled Simulator

Evaluation of Left-turning Vehicle-bicycle Conflict Risk with Elderly Drivers Using a Coupled Simulator

Responding to the Conflict of Interest Risks in Central and Eastern Europe: Case of Slovenia

Prohibition of conflict of interest prevents abuses of the rule of law in modern constitutional democracies. As a result, is ensures that persons working in state institutions do not use their posts and functions for private gain. The experience from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) illustrates that state authorities have in the past faced challenges in how to internalise the prohibition of conflict of interest. Literature from CEE on the prohibition of conflict of interest has been scarse. Consequently, this paper aims to address this gap by examining the experience of the Slovenian state in coping with the risks arising from conflict of interest. It discusses and analyses on one hand theoretical and normative underpinnings of the prohibition of conflict of interest in the Slovenian, European and international frameworks. On the other hand, it examines the recent practice of administrative and judicial bodies concerning the prohibition of conflict of interest. It finds that normative frameworks in the Slovenian constitutional framework have been reformed in recent years. Nonetheless, there is still a risk of potential and actual conflict of interest for the implementation of the rule of law in state institutions. The normative prohibition appears not to have been fully internalised in the practice of state institutions. As a result, the authors submit that state institutions should not turn a blind eye to the risk of conflict of interest in order to show willingness to strengthen the rule of law in the Slovenian constitutional democracy. The Slovenian normative and empirical experience shows lessons that can be taken up in the constitutional democracies of Central and Eastern Europe experiencing similar challenges.

Big Data Analysis and Prediction of Electromagnetic Spectrum Resources: A Graph Approach

In the field of wireless communication, the increasing number of devices makes limited spectrum resources more scarce and accelerates the complexity of the electromagnetic environment, posing a serious threat to the sustainability of the industry’s development. Therefore, new effective technical methods are needed to mine and analyze the activity rules of spectrum resources to reduce the risk of frequency conflict. This paper introduces the idea of graphs and proposes a spectrum resource analysis and prediction architecture based on big data. In this architecture, a spatial correlation model of spectrum activities is constructed through feature extraction. In addition, based on this correlation model, a depth learning network based on graph convolution is designed, which uses the prior information of spatial activity to achieve the efficient prediction of spectrum resources. Numerical experiments were carried out on two datasets with different spatial scales. Compared with the best baseline model, the prediction error is reduced by 8.3% on the small-scale dataset and 11.7% on the large-scale dataset. This shows that the proposed method is applicable to different spatial scales and has more obvious advantages in complex scenes with large spatial scales. It can effectively use the results of spatial domain analysis to improve the prediction accuracy of spectrum resources.

Addressing Vaccine Hesitancy Through a Comprehensive Resident Vaccine Curriculum.

Vaccine hesitancy can lead to incomplete vaccination, increased risk of vaccine-preventable diseases, and distrust or conflict between physicians and patients. Yet many physicians are uncomfortable navigating vaccine hesitancy and educating vaccine-hesitant patients and families. We developed a vaccine hesitancy curriculum to increase vaccine knowledge, comfort, and communication skills in pediatric residents. The curriculum consisted of four interactive 40-minute sessions delivered to pediatric residents over 10 months. The first two sessions discussed recommended childhood vaccines, the third session examined common vaccine misconceptions, and the final session reviewed vaccine hesitancy-specific communication skills, incorporating practice through role-playing. Residents completed pre- and posttests assessing knowledge and comfort as well as receiving a standardized patient (SP) assessment of vaccine-specific communication skills after the curriculum. Thirty-five residents were in the educational intervention group and 35 in a control group. Pretest scores did not differ significantly between the groups. The mean knowledge score for the intervention group increased from 47% on the pretest to 66% on the posttest. The mean self-reported comfort score (1 = low comfort, 5 = high comfort) for the intervention group increased from 2.9 on the pretest to 3.8 on the posttest. The control group showed no difference between pre- and posttest scores for knowledge or comfort. The mean postintervention SP assessment score was significantly higher for the intervention group (78%) than the control group (52%). Implementation of a comprehensive vaccine hesitancy curriculum resulted in improved vaccine knowledge, self-reported comfort, and communication skills among pediatric residents.