Risk Of Cholera Research Articles

The potential impact of case-area targeted interventions in response to cholera outbreaks: A modeling study.

BackgroundCholera prevention and control interventions targeted to neighbors of cholera cases (case-area targeted interventions [CATIs]), including improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, oral cholera vaccine (OCV), and prophylactic antibiotics, may be able to efficiently avert cholera cases and deaths while saving scarce resources during epidemics. Efforts to quickly target interventions to neighbors of cases have been made in recent outbreaks, but little empirical evidence related to the effectiveness, efficiency, or ideal design of this approach exists. Here, we aim to provide practical guidance on how CATIs might be used by exploring key determinants of intervention impact, including the mix of interventions, “ring” size, and timing, in simulated cholera epidemics fit to data from an urban cholera epidemic in Africa.Methods and findingsWe developed a micro-simulation model and calibrated it to both the epidemic curve and the small-scale spatiotemporal clustering pattern of case households from a large 2011 cholera outbreak in N’Djamena, Chad (4,352 reported cases over 232 days), and explored the potential impact of CATIs in simulated epidemics. CATIs were implemented with realistic logistical delays after cases presented for care using different combinations of prophylactic antibiotics, OCV, and/or point-of-use water treatment (POUWT) starting at different points during the epidemics and targeting rings of various radii around incident case households. Our findings suggest that CATIs shorten the duration of epidemics and are more resource-efficient than mass campaigns. OCV was predicted to be the most effective single intervention, followed by POUWT and antibiotics. CATIs with OCV started early in an epidemic focusing on a 100-m radius around case households were estimated to shorten epidemics by 68% (IQR 62% to 72%), with an 81% (IQR 69% to 87%) reduction in cases compared to uncontrolled epidemics. These same targeted interventions with OCV led to a 44-fold (IQR 27 to 78) reduction in the number of people needed to target to avert a single case of cholera, compared to mass campaigns in high-cholera-risk neighborhoods. The optimal radius to target around incident case households differed by intervention type, with antibiotics having an optimal radius of 30 m to 45 m compared to 70 m to 100 m for OCV and POUWT. Adding POUWT or antibiotics to OCV provided only marginal impact and efficiency improvements. Starting CATIs early in an epidemic with OCV and POUWT targeting those within 100 m of an incident case household reduced epidemic durations by 70% (IQR 65% to 75%) and the number of cases by 82% (IQR 71% to 88%) compared to uncontrolled epidemics. CATIs used late in epidemics, even after the peak, were estimated to avert relatively few cases but substantially reduced the number of epidemic days (e.g., by 28% [IQR 15% to 45%] for OCV in a 100-m radius). While this study is based on a rigorous, data-driven approach, the relatively high uncertainty about the ways in which POUWT and antibiotic interventions reduce cholera risk, as well as the heterogeneity in outbreak dynamics from place to place, limits the precision and generalizability of our quantitative estimates.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that CATIs using OCV, antibiotics, and water treatment interventions at an appropriate radius around cases could be an effective and efficient way to fight cholera epidemics. They can provide a complementary and efficient approach to mass intervention campaigns and may prove particularly useful during the initial phase of an outbreak, when there are few cases and few available resources, or in order to shorten the often protracted tails of cholera epidemics.

Current views and challenges on clinical cholera.

Cholera, an acute diarrheal infection has become a major global threat. Vibrio cholerae the causative agent of cholera has been responsible for six previous pandemics since 1817 that spanned four continents and Australia with the seventh pandemic ongoing since 1961. Two serogroups of V. cholerae O1 and O139 have the ability to secrete the enterotoxin with potential to cause epidemics. The prior six pandemics were caused by the classical biotype of the O1 serogroup. However, the emergence of the El Tor biotype and subsequent variants of El Tor with classical traits are the main isolates in the seventh pandemic.Cholera outbreaks have increased among vulnerable communities affected by war, earthquakes, conflicts and famines. Annually, 2.9 million cases of cholera occur globally in 69 endemic countries with 95,000 deaths. Early detection followed by prompt fluid and electrolyte replacement can reduce the case fatality ratio significantly. Improvements in water systems, sanitation and hygiene have effectively eliminated the transmission of cholera in high-income countries and reduced transmission in some developing nations. However, an estimated 1.8 billion are still at risk for cholera due to lack of potable water, inadequate sanitation and hygiene. Interventions focusing on hygiene in conjunction with proper disposal and treatment of sewage and provision of safe drinking water are likely to be effective in preventing the recurrence of cholera. Lastly, the use of current oral vaccines in endemic settings in combination with WASH interventions may be an effective approach to prevent and reduce the spread of cholera infection.

Identifying cholera "hotspots" in Uganda: An analysis of cholera surveillance data from 2011 to 2016.

BackgroundDespite advance in science and technology for prevention, detection and treatment of cholera, this infectious disease remains a major public health problem in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda inclusive. The aim of this study was to identify cholera hotspots in Uganda to guide the development of a roadmap for prevention, control and elimination of cholera in the country.Methodology/Principle findingsWe obtained district level confirmed cholera outbreak data from 2011 to 2016 from the Ministry of Health, Uganda. Population and rainfall data were obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, and water, sanitation and hygiene data from the Ministry of Water and Environment. A spatial scan test was performed to identify the significantly high risk clusters. Cholera hotspots were defined as districts whose center fell within a significantly high risk cluster or where a significantly high risk cluster was completely superimposed onto a district. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was employed to identify the district level risk factors for cholera. In total 11,030 cases of cholera were reported during the 6-year period. 37(33%) of 112 districts reported cholera outbreaks in one of the six years, and 20 (18%) districts experienced cholera at least twice in those years. We identified 22 districts as high risk for cholera, of which 13 were near a border of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), while 9 districts were near a border of Kenya. The relative risk of having cholera inside the high-risk districts (hotspots) were 2 to 22 times higher than elsewhere in the country. In total, 7 million people were within cholera hotspots. The negative binomial component of the ZINB model shows people living near a lake or the Nile river were at increased risk for cholera (incidence rate ratio, IRR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97 to 0.99, p < .01); people living near the border of DRC/Kenya or higher incidence rate in the neighboring districts were increased risk for cholera in a district (IRR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.00, p = .02 and IRR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.03, p < .01, respectively). The zero inflated component of the ZINB model yielded shorter distance to Kenya or DRC border, higher incidence rate in the neighboring districts, and higher annual rainfall in the district were associated with the risk of having cholera in the district.Conclusions/significanceThe study identified cholera hotspots during the period 2011–2016. The people located near the international borders, internationally shared lakes and river Nile were at higher risk for cholera outbreaks than elsewhere in the country. Targeting cholera interventions to these locations could prevent and ultimately eliminate cholera in Uganda.

Use of oral cholera vaccine as a vaccine probe to define the geographical dimensions of person-to-person transmission of cholera

BackgroundCholera is known to be transmitted from person to person, and inactivated oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) have been shown to confer herd protection via interruption of this transmission. However, the geographic dimensions of chains of person-to-person transmission of cholera are uncertain. The ability of OCVs to confer herd protection was used to define these dimensions in two cholera-endemic settings, one in rural Bangladesh and the other in urban India. MethodsTwo large randomized, placebo-controlled trials of inactivated OCVs, one in rural Matlab, Bangladesh and the other in urban Kolkata, India, were reanalyzed. Vaccine herd protection was evaluated by relating the risk of cholera in placebo recipients to vaccine coverage of surrounding residents residing within concentric rings. In Matlab, concentric rings in 100-m increments up to 700m were evaluated; in Kolkata, 50-m increments up to 350m were evaluated. ResultsOne hundred and eight cholera cases among 24667 placebo recipients were detected during 1year of post-vaccination follow-up at Matlab; 128 cholera cases among 34968 placebo recipients were detected during 3 years of follow-up in Kolkata. Consistent inverse relationships were observed between vaccine coverage of the ring and the risk of cholera in the central placebo recipient for rings with radii up to 500m in Matlab and up to 150m in Kolkata. ConclusionsThese results suggest that the dimensions of chains of person-to-person transmission in endemic settings can be quite large and may differ substantially from setting to setting. Using OCVs as ‘probes’ to define these dimensions can inform geographical targeting strategies for the deployment of these vaccines in endemic settings.

Identification of burden hotspots and risk factors for cholera in India: An observational study.

BackgroundEven though cholera has existed for centuries and many parts of the country have sporadic, endemic and epidemic cholera, it is still an under-recognized health problem in India. A Cholera Expert Group in the country was established to gather evidence and to prepare a road map for control of cholera in India. This paper identifies cholera burden hotspots and factors associated with an increased risk of the disease.Methodology/Principle findingsWe acquired district level data on cholera case reports of 2010–2015 from the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program. Socioeconomic characteristics and coverage of water and sanitation was obtained from the 2011 census. Spatial analysis was performed to identify cholera hotspots, and a zero-inflated Poisson regression was employed to identify the factors associated with cholera and predicted case count in the district. 27,615 cholera cases were reported during the 6-year period. Twenty-four of 36 states of India reported cholera during these years, and 13 states were classified as endemic. Of 641 districts, 78 districts in 15 states were identified as “hotspots” based on the reported cases. On the other hand, 111 districts in nine states were identified as “hotspots” from model-based predicted number of cases. The risk for cholera in a district was negatively associated with the coverage of literate persons, households using treated water source and owning mobile telephone, and positively associated with the coverage of poor sanitation and drainage conditions and urbanization level in the district.Conclusions/SignificanceThe study reaffirms that cholera continues to occur throughout a large part of India and identifies the burden hotspots and risk factors. Policymakers may use the findings of the article to develop a roadmap for prevention and control of cholera in India.

Supporting local health decision making with spatial video: Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika risks in a data poor, informal community in Nicaragua

One challenge facing spatial scientists trying to support public health outreach and intervention in challenging environments is the lack of fine scale spatial data. These data are required to gain a better understanding of both physical and social systems; why disease occurs where it does, and how to disrupt it. While data options exist, including high resolution aerial imagery, remotely sensed data, and even online mapping products like Google Street View, these all come with limitations. One option that has previously been utilized to assess cholera risk is spatial video. Here it is used to map potential mosquito breeding sites in an endemic Dengue and Chikungunya, and emerging Zika impacted community. We show how this method can provide mapping support in the hands of non-specialist public health workers who, working in collaboration with out-of-area geographic information systems (GIS) teams, can identify where to target limited intervention resources. We use a case study of an impoverished informal style Nicaraguan community suffering from a high disease burden to show spatial variation in potential mosquito breeding habitats. A field team collected street-by-street spatial video data to produce fine scale risk maps of standing water and trash locations, which, when interpreted with the associated spatial video imagery, were used to suggest where intervention strategies should be targeted. We also discuss how these same data layers can be used to address other health concerns traditionally found in informal settlements.

Socioeconomic risk factors for cholera in different transmission settings: An analysis of the data of a cluster randomized trial in Bangladesh.

Cholera remains a threat globally, and socioeconomic factors play an important role in transmission of the disease. We assessed socioeconomic risk factors for cholera in vaccinated and non-vaccinated communities to understand whether the socioeconomic risk factors differ by transmission patterns for cholera. We used data from a cluster randomized control trial conducted in Dhaka, Bangladesh. There were 90 geographic clusters; 30 in each of the three arms of the study: vaccine (VAC), vaccine plus behavioural change (VBC), and non-intervention. The data were analysed for the three populations: (1) vaccinees in the vaccinated communities (VAC and VBC arms), (2) non-vaccinated individuals in the vaccinated communities and (3) all individuals in the non-vaccinated communities (non-intervention arm). A generalized estimating equation with logit link function was used to evaluate the risk factors for cholera among these different populations adjusting for household level correlation in the data. A total of 528 cholera and 226 cholera with severe dehydration (CSD) in 268,896 persons were observed during the two-year follow-up. For population 1, the cholera risk was not associated with any socioeconomic factors; however CSD was less likely to occur among individuals living in a household having ≤4 members (aOR=0.55, 95% CI=0.32-0.96). Among population 2, younger participants and individuals reporting diarrhoea during registration were more likely to have cholera. Females and individuals reporting diarrhoea during registration were at increased risk of CSD. Among population 3, individuals living in a household without a concrete floor, in an area with high population density, closer to the study hospital, or not treating drinking water were at significantly higher risk for both cholera and CSD. The profile of socioeconomic factors associated with cholera varies by individuals' vaccination status as well as the transmission setting. In a vaccinated community where transmission would be expected to be lower, socioeconomic factors may not increase the risk of the disease.

Assessment of Risk of Cholera in Haiti following Hurricane Matthew.

Damage to the inferior and fragile water and sanitation infrastructure of Haiti after Hurricane Matthew has created an urgent public health emergency in terms of likelihood of cholera occurring in the human population. Using satellite-derived data on precipitation, gridded air temperature, and hurricane path and with information on water and sanitation (WASH) infrastructure, we tracked changing environmental conditions conducive for growth of pathogenic vibrios. Based on these data, we predicted and validated the likelihood of cholera cases occurring past hurricane. The risk of cholera in the southwestern part of Haiti remained relatively high since November 2016 to the present. Findings of this study provide a contemporary process for monitoring ground conditions that can guide public health intervention to control cholera in human population by providing access to vaccines, safe WASH facilities. Assuming current social and behavioral patterns remain constant, it is recommended that WASH infrastructure should be improved and considered a priority especially before 2017 rainy season.

Neighborhood-targeted and case-triggered use of a single dose of oral cholera vaccine in an urban setting: Feasibility and vaccine coverage.

IntroductionIn June 2015, a cholera outbreak was declared in Juba, South Sudan. In addition to standard outbreak control measures, oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was proposed. As sufficient doses to cover the at-risk population were unavailable, a campaign using half the standard dosing regimen (one-dose) targeted high-risk neighborhoods and groups including neighbors of suspected cases. Here we report the operational details of this first public health use of a single-dose regimen of OCV and illustrate the feasibility of conducting highly targeted vaccination campaigns in an urban area.Methodology/Principal findingsNeighborhoods of the city were prioritized for vaccination based on cumulative attack rates, active transmission and local knowledge of known cholera risk factors. OCV was offered to all persons older than 12 months at 20 fixed sites and to select groups, including neighbors of cholera cases after the main campaign (‘case-triggered’ interventions), through mobile teams. Vaccination coverage was estimated by multi-stage surveys using spatial sampling techniques. 162,377 individuals received a single-dose of OCV in the targeted neighborhoods. In these neighborhoods vaccine coverage was 68.8% (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 64.0–73.7) and was highest among children ages 5–14 years (90.0%, 95% CI 85.7–94.3), with adult men being less likely to be vaccinated than adult women (Relative Risk 0.81, 95% CI: 0.68–0.96). In the case-triggered interventions, each lasting 1–2 days, coverage varied (range: 30–87%) with an average of 51.0% (95% CI 41.7–60.3).Conclusions/SignificanceVaccine supply constraints and the complex realities where cholera outbreaks occur may warrant the use of flexible alternative vaccination strategies, including highly-targeted vaccination campaigns and single-dose regimens. We showed that such campaigns are feasible. Additional work is needed to understand how and when to use different strategies to best protect populations against epidemic cholera.

Cholera – management and prevention

Cholera is an acute secretory diarrhoeal infection caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. It is likely to have originated in the Indian sub-continent; however, it spread to cause six worldwide pandemics between 1817-1923. The ongoing seventh worldwide pandemic of cholera began in 1961. The intensity, duration and severity of cholera epidemics have been increasing, signaling the need for more effective control and prevention measures. The response to the cholera pandemics of the 19th century led to the development of safe and effective sanitation and water systems which have effectively removed the risk of cholera in many settings. However, such systems are not in place to protect billions of people worldwide. Although some progress has been made in expanding access to water in recent years, achieving optimal infrastructure will, in the most optimistic scenario, take decades. Climate change, extreme weather events and rapid urbanisation suggests that alternatives to the current paradigm of providing large centralised water and sanitation systems should be considered, including smaller decentralised systems. The aim of this review paper is to provide an overview of current knowledge regarding management of cholera with a focus on prevention measures including vaccination and water and sanitation interventions.

Cholera returns to southern Vietnam in an outbreak associated with consuming unsafe water through iced tea: A matched case-control study

BackgroundAfter more than a decade of steadily declining notifications, the number of reported cholera cases has recently increased in Vietnam. We conducted a matched case-control study to investigate transmission of cholera during an outbreak in Ben Tre, southern Vietnam, and to explore the associated risk factors.Methodology/Principal findingsSixty of 71 diarrheal patients confirmed to be infected with cholera by culture and diagnosed between May 9 and August 3, 2010 in Ben Tre were consecutively recruited as case-patients. Case-patients were matched 1:4 to controls by commune, sex, and 5-year age group. Risk factors for cholera were examined by multivariable conditional logistic regression. In addition, environmental samples from villages containing case-patients were taken to identify contamination of food and water sources. The regression indicated that drinking iced tea (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 8.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.84–39.25), not always boiling drinking water (aOR = 2.62, 95% CI: 1.03–6.67), having the main source of water for use being close to a toilet (aOR = 4.36, 95% CI: 1.37–13.88), living with people who had acute diarrhea (aOR = 13.72, 95% CI: 2.77–67.97), and little or no education (aOR = 4.89, 95% CI: 1.18–20.19) were significantly associated with increased risk of cholera. In contrast, drinking stored rainwater (aOR = 0.17, 95% CI: 0.04–0.63), eating cooked seafood (aOR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.10–0.73), and eating steamed vegetables (aOR = 0.22, 95% CI: 0.07–0.70) were protective against cholera. Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa carrying ctxA was found in two of twenty-five river water samples and one of six wastewater samples.Conclusions/SignificanceThe magnitude of the cholera outbreak in Ben Tre was lower than in other similar settings. This investigation identified several risk factors and underscored the importance of continued responses targeting cholera prevention in southern Vietnam. The association between drinking iced tea and cholera and the spread of V. cholerae O1, altered El Tor strains warrant further research. These findings might be affected by a number of limitations due to the inability to capture asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic infections, the possible underreporting of personal unhygienic behaviors, and the purposive selection of environmental samples.

El Niño and the shifting geography of cholera in Africa

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other climate patterns can have profound impacts on the occurrence of infectious diseases ranging from dengue to cholera. In Africa, El Niño conditions are associated with increased rainfall in East Africa and decreased rainfall in southern Africa, West Africa, and parts of the Sahel. Because of the key role of water supplies in cholera transmission, a relationship between El Niño events and cholera incidence is highly plausible, and previous research has shown a link between ENSO patterns and cholera in Bangladesh. However, there is little systematic evidence for this link in Africa. Using high-resolution mapping techniques, we find that the annual geographic distribution of cholera in Africa from 2000 to 2014 changes dramatically, with the burden shifting to continental East Africa-and away from Madagascar and portions of southern, Central, and West Africa-where almost 50,000 additional cases occur during El Niño years. Cholera incidence during El Niño years was higher in regions of East Africa with increased rainfall, but incidence was also higher in some areas with decreased rainfall, suggesting a complex relationship between rainfall and cholera incidence. Here, we show clear evidence for a shift in the distribution of cholera incidence throughout Africa in El Niño years, likely mediated by El Niño's impact on local climatic factors. Knowledge of this relationship between cholera and climate patterns coupled with ENSO forecasting could be used to notify countries in Africa when they are likely to see a major shift in their cholera risk.

Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2015-2016 El Niño: Lessons learned.

A substantial body of work supports a teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera incidence in Bangladesh. In particular, high positive anomalies during the winter (Dec-Feb) in sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific have been shown to exacerbate the seasonal outbreak of cholera following the monsoons from August to November. Climate studies have indicated a role of regional precipitation over Bangladesh in mediating this long-distance effect. Motivated by this previous evidence, we took advantage of the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event to evaluate the predictability of cholera dynamics for the city in recent times based on two transmission models that incorporate SST anomalies and are fitted to the earlier surveillance records starting in 1995. We implemented a mechanistic temporal model that incorporates both epidemiological processes and the effect of ENSO, as well as a previously published statistical model that resolves space at the level of districts (thanas). Prediction accuracy was evaluated with “out-of-fit” data from the same surveillance efforts (post 2008 and 2010 for the two models respectively), by comparing the total number of cholera cases observed for the season to those predicted by model simulations eight to twelve months ahead, starting in January each year. Although forecasts were accurate for the low cholera risk observed for the years preceding the 2015–2016 El Niño, the models also predicted a high probability of observing a large outbreak in fall 2016. Observed cholera cases up to Oct 2016 did not show evidence of an anomalous season. We discuss these predictions in the context of regional and local climate conditions, which show that despite positive regional rainfall anomalies, rainfall and inundation in Dhaka remained low. Possible explanations for these patterns are given together with future implications for cholera dynamics and directions to improve their prediction for the city.

Potential future risk of cholera due to climate change in northern Nigeria

Cholera is one of the infectious diseases that remains a major health burden in West-Africa and especially in Nigeria. Several studies have raised concern that climate change may exacerbate the risk of the disease in the future. Projecting the future risk of this disease is essential, especially for regions where the projected climate change impacts, and infectious disease risk, are both large. Projections were made by forcing an empirical model of cholera with monthly simulations of four meteorological variables from an ensemble of ten statistically downscaled global climate model projections for Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Result indicates statistically significant increases in cases during April-September for RCPs 6.0 and 8.5 in both near (2020-2035) and far (2060-2075) future. The months with the largest increases coincide with the months (May and June) in which maximum temperature increases are also large. Cases only showed potential increases in the wettest months of July and August in the far future projections for RCPs 6.5 (8.3 and 7.9%) and 8.0 (17 and 21%) respectively. Keywords: Climate change; Cholera; Projections; Nigeria

Factors associated with cholera in Kenya, 2008-2013.

IntroductionKenya experienced widespread cholera outbreaks in 1997-1999 and 2007-2010. The re-emergence of cholera in Kenya in 2015 indicates that cholera remains a public health threat. Understanding past outbreaks is important for preventing future outbreaks. This study investigated the relationship between cholera occurrence in Kenya and various environmental and demographic factors related to water, sanitation, socio-economic status, education, urbanization and availability of health facilities during the time period 2008-2013.MethodsThe primary outcome analyzed was the number of cholera cases at the district level, obtained from the Kenya Ministry of Health's national cholera surveillance records. Values of independent variables were obtained from the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census and other national surveys. The data were analyzed using a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model.ResultsMultivariate analysis indicated that the risk of cholera was associated with open defecation, use of unimproved water sources, poverty headcount ratio and the number of health facilities per 100,000 population (p < 0.05). No statistically significant association was found between cholera occurrence and education, percentage of population living in urban areas or population density.ConclusionThe Sustainable Development Goals and Kenya's blueprint for development, Kenya Vision 2030, call for access to sanitation facilities and clean water for all by 2030. Kenya has made important economic strides in recent years but continues to be affected by diseases like cholera that are associated with low socio-economic status. Further expansion of access to sanitation facilities and clean water is necessary for preventing cholera in Kenya.

Geospatial Assessment of Cholera in a Rapidly Urbanizing Environment.

This study mapped out and investigated the spatial relationship between cholera incidences and environmental risk factors in the study area. The study area was stratified into eight zones. Water samples from each zone were collected and analyzed to determine the colony forming units. GIS layers including housing density, digitized roads, rivers, buildings, and cholera incidence data from hospital archives were also collected and analyzed using ArcGIS 10.1. It was observed that there was an association between the ERFs (p < 0.001). Similarly, 18 out of the 44 waste dump sites, seven out of 18 markets, and two out of 36 abattoirs were found near the historical cholera cases. Similarly, 4 (21.1%) locations were traced to be predominantly close to rivers and waste dump site. All the historical cholera cases were found adjoining to roads and buildings. Highest CFU count was found in the wells and streams of areas with a cluster of all the environmental risk factors and high housing density. This study revealed that waste dump sites and market had the highest predisposing attribute while the least was abattoir. The uniqueness of the study lies in the combination of mapping and microbial analyses to identify and assess the pattern of cholera risk and also to provide clear information for development of strategies for environmental supervision.

Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity

Although a differential sensitivity of cholera dynamics to climate variability has been reported in the spatially heterogeneous megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh, the specific patterns of spread of the resulting risk within the city remain unclear. We build on an established probabilistic spatial model to investigate the importance and role of human mobility in modulating spatial cholera transmission. Mobility fluxes were inferred using a straightforward and generalizable methodology that relies on mapping population density based on a high resolution urban footprint product, and a parameter-free human mobility model. In accordance with previous findings, we highlight the higher sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the highly populated urban center than in the more rural periphery. More significantly, our results show that cholera risk is largely transmitted from the climate-sensitive core to the periphery of the city, with implications for the planning of control efforts. In addition, including human mobility improves the outbreak prediction performance of the model with an 11 month lead. The interplay between climatic and human mobility factors in cholera transmission is discussed from the perspective of the rapid growth of megacities across the developing world.

Immune Responses to an Oral Cholera Vaccine in Internally Displaced Persons in South Sudan.

Despite recent large-scale cholera outbreaks, little is known about the immunogenicity of oral cholera vaccines (OCV) in African populations, particularly among those at highest cholera risk. During a 2015 preemptive OCV campaign among internally displaced persons in South Sudan, a year after a large cholera outbreak, we enrolled 37 young children (1–5 years old), 67 older children (6–17 years old) and 101 adults (≥18 years old), who received two doses of OCV (Shanchol) spaced approximately 3 weeks apart. Cholera-specific antibody responses were determined at days 0, 21 and 35 post-immunization. High baseline vibriocidal titers (>80) were observed in 21% of the participants, suggesting recent cholera exposure or vaccination. Among those with titers ≤80, 90% young children, 73% older children and 72% adults seroconverted (≥4 fold titer rise) after the 1st OCV dose; with no additional seroconversion after the 2nd dose. Post-vaccination immunological endpoints did not differ across age groups. Our results indicate Shanchol was immunogenic in this vulnerable population and that a single dose alone may be sufficient to achieve similar short-term immunological responses to the currently licensed two-dose regimen. While we found no evidence of differential response by age, further immunologic and epidemiologic studies are needed.

Transmission of Infectious Vibrio cholerae through Drinking Water among the Household Contacts of Cholera Patients (CHoBI7 Trial).

Recurrent cholera causes significant morbidity and mortality among the growing population of Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh. Previous studies have demonstrated that household contacts of cholera patients are at >100 times higher risk of cholera during the week after the presentation of the index patient. Our prospective study investigated the mode of transmission of Vibrio cholerae, the cause of cholera, in the households of cholera patients in Dhaka city. Out of the total 420 rectal swab samples analyzed from 84 household contacts and 330 water samples collected from 33 households, V. cholerae was isolated from 20%(17/84) of household contacts, 18%(6/33) of stored drinking water, and 27%(9/33) of source water samples. Phenotypic and molecular analyses results confirmed the V. cholerae isolates to be toxigenic and belonging to serogroup O1 biotype El Tor (ET) possessing cholera toxin of classical biotype (altered ET). Phylogenetic analysis by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) showed the V. cholerae isolates to be clonally linked, as >95% similarity was confirmed by sub-clustering patterns in the PFGE (NotI)-based dendrogram. Mapping results showed cholera patients to be widely distributed across 25 police stations. The data suggesting the transmission of infectious V. cholerae within the household contacts of cholera patients through drinking water underscores the need for safe water to prevent spread of cholera and related deaths in Dhaka city.

Observed Handwashing with Soap Practices Among Cholera Patients and Accompanying Household Members in a Hospital Setting (CHoBI7 Trial).

Household members of cholera patients are at a 100 times higher risk of cholera than the general population. Despite this risk, there are only a handful of studies that have investigated the handwashing practices among hospitalized diarrhea patients and their accompanying household members. To investigate handwashing practices in a hospital setting among this high-risk population, 444 hours of structured observation was conducted in a hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh, among 148 cholera patients and their household members. Handwashing with soap practices were observed at the following key events: after toileting, after cleaning the anus of a child, after removing child feces, during food preparation, before eating, and before feeding. Spot-checks were also conducted to observe the presence of soap at bathroom areas. Overall, 4% (4/103) of key events involved handwashing with soap among cholera patients and household members during the structured observation period. This was 3% (1/37) among cholera patients and 5% (3/66) for household members. For toileting events, observed handwashing with soap was 7% (3/46) overall, 7% (1/14) for cholera patients, and 6% (2/32) for household members. For food-related events, overall observed handwashing with soap was 2% (2/93 overall), and 0% (0/34) and 3% (2/59) for cholera patients and household members, respectively. Soap was observed at only 7% (4/55) of handwashing stations used by patients and household members during spot-checks. Observed handwashing with soap at key times among patients and accompanying household members was very low. These findings highlight the urgent need for interventions to target this high-risk population.