Risk Management In China Research Articles

A Comparative Study of The Cost Risk of EPC Models for Engineering Construction at Home And Abroad

EPC projects with large engineering and procurement volumes, long construction cycles and management difficulties, the risks faced are also more complex and varied than in other contracting models. This paper establishes a risk index system by documentary method and evaluates and calculates the cost risk in two different environments at home and abroad by hierarchical analysis, so as to find the similarities and differences and propose countermeasures to provide a basis for risk management in China’s EPC contracting model.

One year of African swine fever outbreak in China

African swine fever (ASF) is a major threat to domestic pigs and wild boars. Since 2018, ASF outbreaks have been ongoing in China. As of August 3, 2019, a total of 151 ASF clusters of outbreaks reported in China have caused severe economic losses for the industry, the pig farmers and pork producers, due to the lack of an efficacious vaccine. The present study aims to analyze the epidemiologic characteristics of ASF outbreak that occurred in several regions across China during the period August 2018- August 2019. Particular focus was on the epidemic distribution, main transmission routes, incidence/fatality, impact on pig production capacity, and the main preventive measures adopted to mitigate the risk of ASF spread in pig farming systems by Chinese government. Results show that anthropogenic factors, spatial distribution, efficient measures taken by China,and good response timely in implementation of preventive measures are important on the transmission of ASF and these suggest that effective ASF risk management in China will require a comprehensive and integrated approach linking science and implemented by all relevant stakeholders. This provides an empirical basis to optimize current interventions as well as develop new tools and strategies to reduce the risk transmission of African swine fever virus (ASFV) to domestic pigs and wild boars.

Safety information perception, forewarning & forecast of Chinese small reservoir based on risk classification

In order to effectively manage more than 90000 small reservoirs in China, aiming at their characteristics, based on engineering classification, this article established a system of safety information perception, early warning and prediction based on safety risk classification in terms of the safety risk factors such as occurrence environment, structural materials, supervision and management, and accident loss. It solved the standardization and pertinence problems of small reservoir risk management in China.

Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation concentration and their potential links to drought in mainland China

Climate warming triggers increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, and due to disequilibrium precipitation at spatial and temporal scales, droughts or floods may occur frequently. Therefore, it is necessary to assess spatiotemporal variation of precipitation concentration and its potential impact on drought. The study calculated the Concentration Index (CI) and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) of 780 stations during 1961–2016 in mainland China, and monthly temperature and precipitation data were adapted to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Changepoint method was used to determine the turn and change points of CI and PCI, and Sen’s slope method was used to calculate the trend before and after the year of turn points (YTPs) and the overall trend of drought was also analyzed. The Pearson correlation method was employed to evaluate the correlation between CI/PCI and SPEI to explore potential influence of precipitation concentration on drought from qualitative and quantitative perspectives. The results demonstrate that the annual CI ranges from 0.56 to 0.75, and the 25% rainiest days account for 68.35%–85.92% of total precipitation. The summer CI was the largest and the winter CI was the smallest among all seasons. 9.74% and 9.62% of stations were observed with change points for annual CI and PCI, respectively. Meanwhile, 80.13% and 69.36% of stations for annual CI and PCI showed a decreasing trend, respectively, and 73.21% of stations exhibited a trend of drought. Annual SPEI was positively correlated with CI and PCI, accounting for 88.59% and 70.77% of stations in mainland China, respectively, indicating that the variation of drought was more sensitive to CI than to PCI. The results can provide a basis for decision-making in water resources and drought risk management in China.

Financial stress dynamics in China: An interconnectedness perspective

Since the subprime crisis, financial stress has been subjected to increased attention. However, related research of emerging economics is still in its infancy. Considering that the financial market is quite interconnected due to its complexity, we measure the stress dynamics of the Chinese financial market from an interconnectedness perspective. Multiple manifestations of interconnectedness are first investigated in this paper. It is found that the interbank and bond market are highly connected and play a central role in stress transmission. Then, financial stress is measured with the consideration of the interconnectedness. Finally, the asymmetric and nonlinear economic effects of financial stress are investigated, and thresholds are determined to distinguish between periods of financial stress and normal periods. The Financial Stress Index constructed in this paper effectively captures real-time status and identifies stressed periods, thus contributing to the early warnings and subsequent risk management in China. A systemic but focused strategy is suggested to deal with financial stress.

Classification Method of Small Reservoir in China Based on Risk Analysis

In order to effectively manage more than 90000 small reservoirs in China, aiming at their characteristics, based on risk analysis, this article established a small reservoir dynamic risk Classification method and corresponding indexes including Safety risks factors and connecting with current specifications. in terms of the safety risk factors such as occurrence environment, structural materials, supervision and management, and accident loss. It solved the standardization and pertinence problems of small reservoir risk management in China.

Water quality criteria of total ammonia nitrogen (TAN) and un-ionized ammonia (NH3-N) and their ecological risk in the Liao River, China.

Ammonia has drawn great concern worldwide due to its ubiquity in surface water and high toxic effect. In China, ammonia pollution issues in the Liao River were highlighted from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment annual report. In this study, water quality criteria (WQC) for two types of ammonia (total ammonia nitrogen (TAN) and un-ionized ammonia (NH3-N)) and related temporal concentration distributions and ecological risks in the Liao River were investigated. For sampling sites (2014) and national monitoring sites (2008, 2013, 2016, 2017 and 2018) of the Liao River, there were seasonal variations identified for TAN and NH3-N. More specifically, high concentrations of TAN and NH3-N occurred separately in winter and summer, and there were increasing trends for TAN and NH3-N from 2013 to 2018. The acute and chronic WQC values for TAN based on the toxicity values of the Liao River species were 16.86 and 4.39 mg/L (pH of 7.0 and temperature of 20 °C), and the acute and chronic WQC values for NH3-N were 0.067 and 0.017 mg/L. The exceedance probabilities of 5% species affected for long-term exposure of TAN and NH3-N were ≥30% in 2014. In addition, the increasing trend of concentrations and ecological risks posed by NH3-N from 2013 should be paying more attention. This study could provide useful information for ammonia environmental risk management in China and ecological risk assessment procedure for NH3-N and TAN exposure in similar surface waters worldwide.

Dealing with distributional effects of flood risk management in China: compensation mechanisms in flood retention areas

ABSTRACTOne of China’s flood protection strategies is to create flood retention areas. This article focuses on how China deals with the infringements of property use rights caused by the creation and use of flood retention areas. It describes the legal framework of flood retention areas, the associated compensation mechanisms and other mechanisms that may be used in the future to offset the adverse consequences of the rights of individuals in flood retention areas.

Spatio-temporal variations in extreme drought in China during 1961–2015

Understanding the past variations in extreme drought is especially beneficial to the improvement of drought resistance planning and drought risk management in China. Based on the monitoring data of meteorological stations from 1961 to 2015 and a meteorological drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the spatio- temporal variations in extreme drought at inter-decadal, inter-annual and seasonal scales in China were analyzed. The results revealed that 12 months cumulative precipitation with 1/2 to 5/8 of average annual precipitation will trigger extreme drought. From the period 1961–1987 to the period 1988–2015, the mean annual frequency of extreme drought (FED) increased along a strip extending from southwest China (SWC) to the western part of northeast China (NEC). The increased FED showed the highest value in spring, followed by winter, autumn and summer. There was a continuous increase in the decadal-FED from the 1990s to the 2010s on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the southeast China (SEC) and the SW. During the period 1961–2015, the number of continuous drought stations was almost the same among 4 to 6 months and among 10 to 12 months of continuous drought, respectively. It can be inferred that drought lasting 6 or 12 months may lead to more severe drought disasters due to longer duration. The range of the longest continuous drought occurred in the 21st century had widely increased compared with that in the 1980s and the 1990s. Our findings may be helpful for water resources management and reducing the risk of drought disasters in China.

The research of the time-varying risk of concrete dam based on first transcendental probability theory

With the gradual transition of dam safety management work from engineering safety management to engineering risk management in China, the dam risk degree has become a more and more important research field. Under the influence of mutiple random uncertain and fuzzy factors, the dam risk degree exhibits strong time-varying characteristics. This paper adopted the bivariate Gaussian method to compute the time-varying risk degree based on parallel-system method by transforming the time-varying risk computation into the risk computation of the failure of static parallel system. By computing the static dam risk degree at fixed times based on the JC method in generalized random space, the time-varying risk degrees were obtained based on first transcendental probability theory. Finally, the case study took a certain concrete gravity dam on the foundation interface as an example and the time-varying risk degree of the dam sliding failure was computed with the proposed method by introducing feasible random-process variable model of the resistance and load effects, verifying the effectiveness of the model, which is of certain theoretical and practical values.

The Risk Measurement of China’s Insurance Fund Investment—Based on VaR Model

Since the 19th National Congress of CPC (the Communist Party of China), China has put forward more stringent requirements for the prevention and control of risks in the insurance industry. In order to measure the risk and performance of four main investment types of China’s insurance fund (bank deposit, bond investment, stock investment, fund investment), the paper first introduces the development and present situation of the insurance fund investment in China, and then uses the VaR model to measure the risk of each investment type. Finally, the performance evaluation of each investment type is carried out through the RAROC (Risk Adjusted Return on Capital) method. The result shows that China’s insurance industry still has problems such as asset-liability mismatch, hidden liquidity risk and increased credit risk. Additionally, it also reveals that there is still room for improvement in the investment structure of China’s insurance fund investment. This result not only provides relevant policy suggestions for risk management in China’s insurance industry, but also fills the blank of research in this field in recent years.

Two Ways of Calculating VaR in Risk Management ——An Empirical Study Based on CSI 300 Index

As the financial market of China continues to grow, how to control the potential risks in the financial market and to maintain the bottom line without large systemic financial risks becomes a problem that must be faced. The VaR method has become the most widely used financial risk measurement method by its simplicity, flexibility and flexibility. Based on the data of the CSI 300 Index in the past five years, this paper uses Monte Carlo simulation and historical simulation to calculate the VaR of the five-year index and test its validity. Finally, combining with the characteristics of China’s market economy, it puts forward some suggestions on financial risk management in China’s financial market.

Factors Contributing to Social Risk Management in China: Evaluation in the Context of SSRA Initiative

Managing social risk has become a policy concern in contemporary public administration. In China, the Social Stability Risk Assessment (SSRA) was conceived as a government-driven and performance-based system to tackle the challenges of social instability, with the last decade witnessing an increasing imperative to promote its implementation. In practice, local administrations have asserted the importance of social risk management in improving the capability of handling uncertainties, yet studies on SSRA effectiveness are relatively limited. To fill the gap, this paper examines factors for mobilizing local administrators in implementing effective SSRA enforcement through a framework constructed from the perspective of government agencies. Using field survey data collected from four provincial regions, we refined five theoretical constructs and affiliated thirty-five items critical for SSRA operational effectiveness, and found that administrative intervention by the local government plays a crucial role. This study contributes to an understanding of China's social risk management practice, and offers assessment criteria to monitor its effectiveness in public administration.

Pig empire under infectious threat: risk of African swine fever introduction into the People's Republic of China

Pig production and pork consumption are very important to the People's Republic of China for both economic and cultural reasons. The incursion and spread of a disease such as African...

Ambient Air Pollution and Morbidity in Chinese.

The rapid economic growth in China is coupled with a severe ambient air pollution, which poses a huge threat to human health and the sustainable development of social economy. The rapid urbanization and industrialization over the last three decades have placed China as one of countries with the greatest disease burden in world. Notably, the prevalence rate of chronic noncommunicable diseases (CND), including respiratory diseases, CVD, and stroke, in 2010 reaches 16.9%. The continuous growth of the incidence of CND urgent needs for effective regulatory action for health protection. This study aims to evaluate the impact of rapid urbanization on status of ambient air pollution and associated adverse health effects on the incidence and the burden of CND and risk assessment. Our findings would be greatly significant in the prediction of the risk of ambient air pollution on CND and for evidence-based policy making and risk management in China.

Enterprise risk management in China: the impacts on organisational performance

This paper examines the impacts of enterprise risk management (ERM) on organisational performance in China. By using data gathered from the manufacturing sector, the paper examines the valuation of ERM through its effects on firm cost and efficiency. The empirical evidence shows that ERM can benefit larger size firms with lesser earning variability and higher returns on equity. With fewer insiders, ERM firms can take more systematic risks and gain more benefits from international diversification. The results suggest significant value premiums attached to effective ERM through mitigating firm cost and enhancing firm efficiency. The results also suggest that the strong valuation effects of ERM are associated with cost management, inventory management, asset management and cash flow management.

Spatially-Aggregated Temperature Derivatives: Agricultural Risk Management in China

In this paper, a new form of weather derivative contract, namely the climatic zone-based growth degree-day (GDD) contract, is introduced. The objective is to increase the risk management efficiency in the agricultural sector of China and to reduce the model dimension of multi-regional temperature-based weather derivatives pricing. Since the proposed contract serves as a risk management tool for all of the cities in the same climatic zone, we compare the risk hedging power between the climatic zone-based and the city-based GDD contracts. As a result, we find that the differences between the two types of temperature-based weather contracts are maintained within a certain range.

Proposal for Development Cooperation to Enhance the Capacity on Disaster Emergency Response in Developing Countries : A Case Study of Curriculum Development in the People’s Republic of China

Although the importance of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) has been recognized internationally as exemplified by the UN World Conference on DRR, funding for emergency relief teams and relief supplies accounts for approximately 66% of the total amount paid for emergency management as a part of international cooperation. Stable economic development requires improvement of DRR and also the mitigation of damage. This paper: 1. Identifies the challenges for enhancing the capacity for emergency management in China; and 2. Examines methods of development cooperation that could help to resolve the above-mentioned challenges. The challenges in China have been brought to light through the Project “Japan-China Cooperation Plan of Earthquake First-Aid Capacity Training” to enhance capacity for earthquake emergency management under JICA’s Technical Cooperation. The timeline analysis for emergency management and after action review were used to assess the China’s emergency management framework and systems. The system and framework of China were also examined by comparing international systems and frameworks such as ISO22320, Japanese DRR system and the United States system. Based on this, curriculum and texts were developed for the National Earthquake Response Support Service (NERSS) to train the personnel engages in earthquake risk management in China. Guidance curricula were developed for the beginners and the intermediate user, which effectiveness was verified by instructional design.

Study on Assess of Enterprise Risk Management in China Based on Entropy Weight/TOPSIS Method

Enterprise risk management (ERM) has raised increasing concern in the field of risk management, and brought practical revenues to enterprises in today’s complex interrelated global business environment. It is a valuable question for China enterprises how to improve the ERM performance. Based upon ERM implemental goals published by COSO, we user elevant data from non-financial listed corporations in SSE, from the perspectives of strategic effectiveness, operational efficiency, reporting reliability and corporate compliance. The data of 509 Chinese enterprises is validly interpreted by entropy weight/TOPSIS method to assess the ERM performance, and to analyze the status of ERM in China. Such models provide means quantitatively improve decision making with respect to the ERM performance.

BIM-Risk System for Chinese International Contractors

As the external environment of the international construction project has become increasingly complex, risk management is emphasized in the project management. BIM(Building Information Model) has bring change to the Construction Industry in China. It has contributed to the schedule and cost management. However, BIM is not widely used to solve the problem of risk management. This thesis cites the possibility about BIM application to risk management and evaluates the progress it may bring to the process of risk management. Furthermore, a BIM-Risk System is proposed for Chinese international contractors to solve some major risks the international contractors may face. By using this system, the level of the project risk management will significantly improve. Then the barriers and the potential problems of applying BIM to risk management in China are analyzed. The BIM application to risk management has great value to be further researched.