The research of the time-varying risk of concrete dam based on first transcendental probability theory

Abstract

With the gradual transition of dam safety management work from engineering safety management to engineering risk management in China, the dam risk degree has become a more and more important research field. Under the influence of mutiple random uncertain and fuzzy factors, the dam risk degree exhibits strong time-varying characteristics. This paper adopted the bivariate Gaussian method to compute the time-varying risk degree based on parallel-system method by transforming the time-varying risk computation into the risk computation of the failure of static parallel system. By computing the static dam risk degree at fixed times based on the JC method in generalized random space, the time-varying risk degrees were obtained based on first transcendental probability theory. Finally, the case study took a certain concrete gravity dam on the foundation interface as an example and the time-varying risk degree of the dam sliding failure was computed with the proposed method by introducing feasible random-process variable model of the resistance and load effects, verifying the effectiveness of the model, which is of certain theoretical and practical values.