Sex Offender Risk Research Articles

Are risk assessment tools more accurate than unstructured judgments in predicting violent, any, and sexual offending? A meta-analysis of direct comparison studies.

We conducted a pre-registered meta-analysis of studies that directly compared the predictive validity of risk assessment tools to unstructured judgments of risk for violent, any, or sexual offending. A total of 31 studies, containing 169 effect sizes from 45,673 risk judgments, met inclusion criteria. Based on the results of three-level mixed-effects meta-regression models, the predictive validity of total scores on risk assessment tools was significantly higher than that of unstructured judgments for predictions of violent, any, and sexual offending. Tools continued to outperform unstructured judgments after accounting for risk of bias. This finding was also robust to variations in population, assessment context, and outcome measurement. Although this meta-analysis provides support for the use of risk assessment tools, it also highlights limitations and gaps that future research should address.

Preventing Child Sexual Abuse and the Use of Child Sexual Abuse Materials: Following up on the German Prevention Project Dunkelfeld.

Sexual interest in minors (i.e., pedophilia and hebephilia) is considered a risk factor for Child Sexual Abuse (CSA) and the use of Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM). This study examined the long-term development of CSA, CSAM use, associated cognitions, and quality of life among self-referred, help-seeking individuals diagnosed with pedophilic or hebephilic disorder (PHD) outside the judicial system. Of the 110 eligible men who had undergone therapy for PHD due to psychological distress or risk of offending, 56 were available for follow-up assessment 1-11 years after treatment. Behavioral manifestations, offense-supportive cognitions, and quality of life were evaluated using interviews and psychometric measures. At follow-up, 7.7% of participants with a history of CSA had re-offended, whereas 89.1% of previous CSAM users reported recidivism, although with less severe material. No new CSA offenses occurred among those without prior CSA. Treatment led to increased cognitive victim empathy and reductions in CSA-supportive and CSAM-supportive attitudes, but only the latter improvement persisted through follow-up. Participants exhibited elevated CSA-supportive attitudes relative to community norms at all time points and diminished quality of life at follow-up. Pedophilic and hebephilic disorder carry a persistent risk of sexual offending, particularly regarding CSAM use. Therapeutic gains in offense-supportive cognitions may erode over time without ongoing care. A comprehensive public health approach encompassing early detection, prevention, and expanded treatment access that addresses both the risk of reoffending and overall well-being is crucial for reducing sexual victimization and improving mental health outcomes for individuals from this target group.

Convergent and predictive validity of the Sexual Violence Risk-20 and risk for sexual violence protocol with older sexual offenders

ABSTRACT Structured professional judgement (SPJ) guidelines for assessing risk of sexual offending have existed for more than two decades, yet the literature investigating the validity of these tools remains relatively limited. Recent research has shown that actuarial sexual offending risk assessment tools should be adjusted to reflect reduced risk as offenders age (Helmus et al., 2012), leading to questions about the validity of extant SPJ guidelines for older people who sexually offend. The current study investigated the reliability and predictive validity of the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20) and the Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol (RSVP) with a sample of 95 Australian individuals aged 50 years or over who had sexually offended. Sixteen (16.84%) participants sexually recidivated over a mean follow-up period of 9.07 years. Contrary to results with younger offenders, structured judgements using the SVR-20 or RSVP did not significantly differentiate recidivists from non-recidivists in this sample (AUC = .57). However, the total scores for both instruments were predictive at particular time periods. Certain risk factors were potentially important and accounted for unique variance that was not accounted for by actuarial instruments. The implications and limitations of this study are discussed, as well as recommendations for future research and practice.

Negative emotionality and coping in forensic outpatients with sexually transgressive behaviour

ABSTRACT Negative emotionality has been consistently linked to an increased risk of sexual offending. Ninety-one Dutch males treated in outpatient forensic psychiatry for sexually transgressive behaviour were studied on self-reported negative emotionality, coping and sexual coping, and therapist assessed corresponding dynamic risk factors. Outpatients reported more prevalence of high negative emotionality than therapists. Correlation analyses showed, amongst others, a significant positive association between emotional coping and all subscales of negative emotionality: stress (strong), aggression (weak) and alienation (weak). Furthermore, regression analyses revealed that self-reported stress was a significant predictor of several types of self-reported coping (task, emotional, avoidant, and sexual consent and molest) and assessed sexual coping. Additionally, self-reported aggression predicted consent and rape-themed sexual coping. These results indicate a nuanced relationship between different aspects of negative emotionality and coping mechanisms, underscoring the relevance of careful consideration tailored to characteristics of the patient involved when addressed in forensic treatment. PRACTICE IMPACT STATEMENT The observed associations between (aspects of) negative emotionality and coping, promote the use of patient-tailored emotion regulation interventions in the forensic treatment of outpatients with sexually transgressive behaviour. Moreover, self-report appears to provide useful additional information for further tailoring therapy.

Risk assessment and treatment - Evaluation of a group therapy for people with pedophilia

IntroductionDeviant sexual interest for children (pedophilia, hebephilia) is associated with a higher risk of sexual offending against children (CSA) and consuming child sexual abuse images (CSAI). There is a general shortage of therapeutic programs for individuals who feel sexually attracted to juvenile bodies and are concerned about their sexual behaviour. Efforts to establish regional centres throughout Germany offering preventive support led to the prevention network “Don’t become an offender” (“Kein Täter werden”).ObjectivesTo identify dynamic risk factors (DRFs) and evaluate a treatment programme aiming to reduce CSA and CSAI among potential or existing pedosexual offenders (who have not been legally charged). In addition, changes in the course of therapy are examined to provide information about the accessibility and motivation of the target group and its therapeutic responsiveness.MethodsParticipants undergo standardized diagnostic and treatment procedures. Therapy comprises an outpatient psychotherapy program (group therapy) over the course of approx. 48 weekly sessions, optional individual and partner/relative including sessions, as well as additional pharmaceutical treatment. Assessments are carried out through self- and other-reported psychometric test batteries pre-, during and post-treatment up to a 3.5 year follow-up. The test battery includes clinical questionnaires (WHO-5, CTQ-SF), personality questionnaires (ISK-K, NEO-FFI), sexuality questionnaires (EKK-R, KV-M, MSI, HBI-19) and risk assessment procedures (VRAG-R, STATIC-99, VRS:SO). Main outcome measures are self- and externally-reported DRF changes well as offending behaviour characteristics.ResultsBy September 20, 2023, N=12 individuals were enrolled in the treatment program. All individuals had a deviant sexual preference (exclusive/non-exclusive pedo-/hebephilia). Nine individuals reported past and/or current use of CSAI. Of these, two individuals reported at least one CSA in the past. Three had no previous use of CSAI or CSA history.In the first treatment group (N=6), preliminary results show reduction in dynamic risk factors (e.g., Cognitive Bias, Sexual Compulsivity, Impulsivity) after the first 12 weeks of treatment. The evaluation of additional clinical data is pending.ConclusionsTo date, therapy for individuals with pedophilia or hebephilia has been insufficient – particularly when not offending. Ongoing evaluation of the therapy program should provide further insight into responsiveness and therapeutic motivation of this target group. In particular, the impact of therapy on changing dynamic risk factors for CSA and CSAI remains to be examined.Disclosure of InterestNone Declared

The Counterintuitive Consequences of Sex Offender Risk Assessments at Sentencing

Virginia adopted a risk assessment to help determine sentencing for sex offenders. It was incorporated as a one-way ratchet toward higher sentences: expanding the upper end of the sentence guidelines by up to 300 per cent. This led to a sharp increase in sentences for those convicted of sexual assault. More surprisingly, it also led to a decrease in sentences for those convicted of rape. This raises two questions: (a) why did sentencing patterns change differently across these groups, and (b) why would risk assessment lead to a reduction in sentence length? The first question is relatively easy to answer. While both groups saw an expansion in the upper end of the sentencing guidelines, only sexual assault had the floor lifted on the lower end, making leniency more costly. The second question is less straightforward. One potential explanation is that the risk assessment served as a political or moral shield that implicitly justified leniency for those in the lowest risk category. Even though the risk assessment did not change sentencing recommendations for low-risk individuals, it provided a ‘second opinion’ that could mitigate blame or guilt should the low-risk offender go on to reoffend. This decreased the risks of leniency and counterbalanced any increase in severity for high-risk individuals.

Recidivism risk in male adult sex offenders with psychopathic traits assessed by PCL-R: A systematic review.

Psychopathy has been empirically associated with various forms of antisocial behavior including sexual assault. In fact, the lack of empathy characterizing psychopathic offenders may facilitate the perpetration of more extreme violence. This systematic review aims to explore the relationship between psychopathy traits in male adult sex offenders and the increase in recidivism risk for any type of reoffence, with a special focus on sexual recidivism. From an initial sample of 757 articles related to the topic, only 14 were selected from the current literature at the end of the inclusion process. Each of these assessed the relation between psychopathy traits (measured by PCL-R) and recidivism risk in male sex offenders (age > 18), providing an effect size (quantitative findings). The results of their analysis agree with the currently available literature: the presence of psychopathic traits in sex offenders would seem to correlate with an increased risk of recidivism of general but non-sexual. Furthermore, almost half of the included works highlighted a positive relationship between psychopathy and violent reoffences. However, the limited availability of studies and the unevenness in their results indicate the need to expand future research in this direction.

There Is No Such Thing as Zero Risk of Sexual Offending

The public is justifiably concerned about the risk presented by individuals with a history of sexual crime. Given that recidivism risk varies across individuals and over time, what level is so low as to be indistinguishable from sexual recidivism risk in the general population (a desistance threshold)? This risk is not zero. Comparing census data with the number of males convicted of sexual offences in the province of British Columbia in two cohorts (2006, N = 362; 2011, N = 422), we found that approximately 1% of all adult males in British Columbia would be expected to be convicted of a sexual offence by age 50. Across the full lifespan (until 99), that proportion was estimated to be 1.38% for the 2006 cohort and 1.50% for the 2011 cohort. Other research has found that most individuals released from a sexual offence present a similarly low residual risk (< 2%) after 10 years of being offence-free in the community. Consequently, applying long-term restrictions (e.g., lifetime registration; Criminal Code of Canada §161) to such individuals serves no public protection function.

Optimal threshold for static 99R

The Static 99R is an actuarial instrument that is widely used to assess the sexual recidivism risk of sex offenders. It is frequently applied in jurisdictions as a decision-making tool for release or indefinite admission to a psychiatric hospital within the jail of sex offenders. The decision to release or retain a criminal depends solely on the total score which is considered as the only independent variable. In our study, two models of Static 99R are considered: the 5-year high risk model and the 10-year high risk model. To identify the most appropriate threshold, we performed four independent methods. These are: the point closest-to-(0,1), the concordance probability (CZ), the index of union (IU), and the plot of sensitivity versus specificity. Remarkably, all four methods yielded identical results. For the 5-year high risk model, the optimal threshold is 0.184, which corresponds to a cut-off score of 5. Consequently, a score of 5 or higher implies that the offender is very likely to recidivate. Similarly, for the 10-year high risk, the optimal threshold is 0.293 which corresponds also to a cut-off score of 5.

Changes in sexual thoughts and behaviors in a clinical sample of child sexual abuse material users under the COVID-19 pandemic

In this article, we describe a qualitative study in which we examined perceived effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on help-seeking individuals who access child sexual abuse material (CSAM, legally referred to as child pornography). The study recruited 18 participants who were part of the internet based Prevent It Cognitive Behavior Therapy (CBT) clinical trial, which aims to reduce CSAM use and child exploitation, and were willing to answer questions during a semi-structured interview about the perceived impact of the pandemic restrictions on their lives, including their sexual thoughts and behaviors. Key themes that were identified from the participants’ answers included changes in day-to-day life, mental health, sexual thoughts, behaviors or urges, responses and coping strategies used to deal with sexual urges, changes on the forums, positive changes, and how they could best be assisted with coping in this situation. Our qualitative analysis also suggested that the pandemic affected urges to use CSAM, therefore potentially increasing the risk of online sexual offending. These results support that there is a need to investigate this potential negative side effect of quarantines or lockdowns before future pandemics.

The paraphile project: primary prevention program for people with paraphilia and their important others

<h3>Objectives</h3> In 2019, the pilot research project Paraphile started due to the lack of policy and early interventions focused on people at higher risk of sexual offending in the Czech Republic. Descriptive data and case histories of clients will be presented. <h3>Methods</h3> In the first 12 months after the programme´s official launch, 49 individuals contacted the project and stated an interest in participating. Awareness of the programme has been ensured through media campaigns, peers and self-supportive communities, and the internet. A telephone screening has been conducted via a 17-item semi-structured interview. Of the 44 who completed the screening, forty individuals were interviewed by a clinician, and thirty-eight completed the full assessment battery. <h3>Results</h3> Twenty-four men with self-identified paraphilia/hypersexual impulses and five close persons have taken part in an anonymous and confidential treatment program. The remaining ten individuals neither met the diagnostic criteria of paraphilia. No sociodemographic data are available due to guaranteed anonymity. Nine men (37,5%) reported fetishist sexual preference, eight men (33,3%) reported pedo-hebephilic sexual preference, three men (12,5%) reported coercive sexual preference, and four men (16,7%) reported hypersexual impulses or behaviour. With respect to criminal history, two of the sample of pedophiles and hebephiles reported having committed child pornography offenses. <h3>Conclusions</h3> The present abstract reports first preliminary results of a prevention project Paraphile, which aims at reaching self-identified paraphiles at higher risk of sexual offending in the Czech Republic. <h3>Conflicts of Interest</h3> No conflict of interest.

Sexualized Behavior Among Adolescents Who Sexually Offended

Early or excessive sexualized behaviors and preoccupations with sexuality (SB) exhibited by juveniles who have sexually offended (JSO) are considered risk factors for sexual recidivism. However, research into SB among JSO is scarce. The present study retrospectively examined prevalence rates and patterns of SB among JSO prior to sexual offending and their relation to psychopathology and sexual recidivism. We systematically assessed information from psychiatric and psychological expert reports in case files of 230 JSO aged 12–18 years (M = 14.46, SD = 1.49) from a population sample of JSO with contact sexual offenses. A total of 93 (40.4%) JSO exhibited SB prior to the index sexual offense. Latent class analysis revealed three SB profiles: (1) “low/no SB” (n = 188), (2) “preoccupied SB” (preoccupation with sexuality, e.g., early pornography consumption, excessive masturbation; n = 29), and (3) “dysregulated SB” (exhibiting inappropriate sexualized behaviors toward others, e.g., sexualized speech, touching others inappropriately; n = 13). The preoccupied SB and the dysregulated SB groups showed higher prevalence of psychiatric disorders than the low/no SB. However, none of the JSO of the preoccupied SB or dysregulated SB groups reoffended sexually within 365 days after conviction for the sexual index offense (low/no SB: 12.8%). Overall, our findings do not support a general notion of the presence of SB as an indicator of high risk for persistent sexual offending among JSO. Instead, JSO with SB appear particularly burdened regarding a range of psychiatric disorders that should be treated accordingly.

Examining the Predictive Validity of Korean Sex Offender Risk Assessment Scale(KSORAS) from the Perspective of Offender Typology

Examining the Predictive Validity of Korean Sex Offender Risk Assessment Scale(KSORAS) from the Perspective of Offender Typology

Sexual and Violent Recidivism of Empirically-Typed Individuals Convicted of Rape

Men convicted of rape are a heterogenous group among individuals with sexual offending history. This may contribute to the difficulty of establishing adequate treatment during institutionalization and preventing recidivism after release. Therefore, we aimed to identify an empirical typology of individuals convicted of rape based on (a) common criminological variables (age at first offense, number of prior convictions, relation to the victim), (b) offense behavior (alcoholization during the offense) and (c) clinical diagnoses (substance abuse and dependence, psychopathy, sexual sadism, Cluster B personality disorders, paraphilias, paraphilia-related disorders) associated with the risk of sexual offending. Data of N = 575 adult males with raping history were analyzed. We found four types with different profiles in the described variables: an antisocial impulsive, a sexualized, a highly violent and a non-criminal situational type. The types significantly varied in prognostic validity for violent, but not sexual, recidivism. Also, the typology exhibited a slightly higher predictive validity for violent recidivism than Static-99 scores. In contrast to Static-99, the typology failed to significantly predict sexual recidivism. Although the types explained more variance of violent recidivism than Static-99 scores, the value of applying a broad set of risk factors in contrast to combining only few are discussed.

Police officers’ perceptions of a dynamic sex offender risk assessment tool (the ‘SHARP’) and registered sex offenders

The current study reports on survey results of 10 participants responsible for assessing the risk of recidivism of sex offenders on a police sex offender register. The survey aimed to gather the insights of police officers currently utilising a dynamic risk assessment tool, the ‘SHARP’. The SHARP includes four risk factors and one protective factor frequently associated with sexual recidivism: Sexual deviance, History of supervision violation, Antisocial orientation, Risky environment and Protective factors. The research combined quantitative and qualitative responses to ascertain police officers’ perceptions of a sex offender register and the SHARP. Participants were satisfied with the use of the SHARP, including their ability to code factors such as sexual deviance. Qualitative results revealed favourable attitudes towards the SHARP, especially around the SHARP’s usefulness as improved by the inclusion of dynamic risk factors. This research provides direct insights into police perceptions of the register and SHARP risk assessment tool.

Assessment of Recidivism Risk in Sex Offenders: A Pilot Study in Central Italy.

Knowing the risk factors of recidivism in sex offenders is important in order to prepare effective preventative interventions and treatment in custody. In this regard, the following paper shows the results of a pilot study carried out in the prisons of central Italy in which 44 sex offenders participated. These participants were given the following tests: Historical Clinical Risk Management-20-version 3 (HCR20v3), Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) and Personal Inventory Dimensional (PID-5). The results show a high positivity in the factors of the sub-scales H (historical factors) and C (clinical factors) of HCR20v3; the average total score of the PCR-L is 16.47, with five subjects who are in the “high psychopathy” range (X ≥ 30); with regard to PID-5, the most positive domain is negative affectivity (56.10%).

The Dilemma of Penile Prosthesis Implantation in Sex Offenders

BackgroundPenile prosthesis surgeons face an ethical dilemma when confronted with a sex offender who seeks surgical management of erectile dysfunction. AimTo provide practice guidelines to screen and manage patients with a history of sexual violence prior to surgery. MethodsThree urologists with expertise in penile prosthesis surgery and 1 medical bioethicist were asked to contribute their opinions and provide recommendations to address this controversial topic. OutcomesExpert opinion supported by analysis of available literature and institutional experience. ResultsThe authors review current United States legislation, published literature on sex offender registration, and institutional data on the prevalence of sex offenders among men seeking penile prosthesis placement. Within a context established by medical bioethical principles, the authors propose a practice guideline for screening sex offenders prior to penile implantation surgery and referral for trained psychological evaluation prior to surgical management. Strengths & LimitationsStrengths: multidisciplinary approach in data acquisition including bioethical and legal review. Limitations: Lack of available evidence regarding recidivism risk in sex offenders who undergo penile prosthesis placement. ConclusionSex offenders exist among the population of patients seeking surgical placement of a penile prosthesis. A standardized practice guideline for management of this population should be employed with the intention to reduce future harm.Zhang JH, DeWitt-Foy M, Jankowski J, et al. The Dilemma of Penile Prosthesis Implantation in Sex Offenders. J Sex Med 2021;18:1826–1829.

Online child pornography offender risk assessment using digital forensic artifacts: The need for a hybrid model.

The prevalence of online child pornography is a major societal issue. The criminal justice system has struggled with assessing the risk of individuals involved in online sexual offenses against children, especially when it involves the possession of child pornography. Research suggests there are different categories of offenders involved in this type of behavior (e.g., Online Child Pornography Offenders, Dual Offenders, Contact Offenders), with each category having different motivations, contributing factors, and levels of risk to re-offend or escalate their criminal behavior to more serious offenses (i.e., collecting pictures to contact offending). Determining the risk that individuals involved in online sexual offenses against children pose to re-offend or escalate their criminal behavior has been problematic. Traditional sexual offender risk measures have lower predictive validity when dealing with online child pornography offenders. This article discusses the need for a formalized hybrid risk assessment model that combines the current online sex offenses against children risk measures with digital forensics artifact analysis. The evidence derived from digital forensics artifact analysis can supplement the predictive risk factors obtained from these risk assessment tools, thus increasing the reliability and validity of the risk assessment.

Psychopathy Profiles and Personality Assessment Inventory Scores in a Sex Offender Risk Assessment Field Setting.

A growing body of research suggests there are identifiable psychopathy subtypes among offenders scored on Hare's Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; Hare, 2003). We used latent profile analysis to examine the generalizability of these subtype findings to PCL-R scores (N = 615) assigned in a sex offender risk assessment field setting and to examine how offender subtypes differ on measures of comorbid psychopathology, risk, and treatment amenability from the Personality Assessment Inventory. Consistent with prior research, we identified four subtypes when using PCL-R scores from all offenders: Prototypic psychopathy (n = 239, 38.9%), callous-conning (n = 154, 25.0%), sociopathic (n = 96, 15.6%), and general offenders (n = 126, 20.5%). Prototypic and sociopathic subtypes exhibited the highest levels of comorbid psychopathology and risk for potential violence. We identified classes consistent with primary (n = 66, 36.7%) and secondary (n = 114, 63.3%) psychopathy among offenders with PCL-R total scores ≥ 25, and found higher levels of comorbid psychopathology and potential for violence among those in the secondary psychopathy class. Findings provide support the generalizability of existing PCL-R subtype findings to field scores and show how those with similar PCL-R total scores may differ on scores from commonly used multiscale inventories.

교정시설 내 성폭력 치료프로그램이 고위험 성범죄자의 강간통념에 미치는 효과분석

교정시설 내 성폭력 치료프로그램이 고위험 성범죄자의 강간통념에 미치는 효과분석