Sex Offender Risk Research Articles

The predictive properties of dynamic sex offender risk assessment instruments: A meta-analysis.

This meta-analysis is the first to our knowledge to evaluate the predictive properties of dynamic sex offender risk assessment instruments, which are designed to assess factors associated with recidivism that are amenable to change. Based on 52 studies (N = 13,446), we found that dynamic risk assessment instruments have small-to-moderate predictive properties, with Cohen's d ranging between 0.71 for sexual recidivism (41 studies, 22 unique samples, N = 5,699) and 0.43 for violent (including sexual) recidivism (27 studies, 14 unique samples, N = 10,368). Incremental predictive validity of dynamic over static risk assessment instruments was significant but modest; Cox hazard ratios varied between 1.08 for sexual recidivism (19 studies, 13 unique samples, N = 3,747) and 1.05 for any recidivism (11 studies, 8 unique samples, N = 2,511). Cox hazard ratios for the predictive validity of change scores on dynamic risk assessment instruments, controlling for static and initial dynamic scores, varied between 0.91 for sexual recidivism (6 studies, 6 unique samples, n = 1,980) and 0.95 for any recidivism (3 studies, 3 unique samples, n = 1,172). These findings indicate that dynamic risk assessment instruments can, in terms of Andrews and Bonta's (2010) risk and need principles, be a useful tool for improving sex offender treatment. They have the potential to contribute to the selection of appropriate, more individually tailored treatment approaches (focusing on individually relevant criminogenic need factors) and can assist in the evaluation of treatment effects. Considering this, further development of dynamic risk assessment instruments is warranted. (PsycINFO Database Record

Pharmacological treatment of patients with paraphilic disorders and risk of sexual offending: An international perspective

Objectives: The present study aims to evaluate existing policy and practice relating to the use of pharmacological treatments with patients suffering from paraphilic disorders who are at risk of committing further sexual offences.Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted to document current legal policies across 26 different countries. In addition, a questionnaire assessing the practice of pharmacological treatment was sent to practitioners involved in the treatment of patients with paraphilic disorders.Results: Legal policies concerning the preconditions of using pharmacological treatments differ considerably between countries, and for most jurisdictions do not exist. Drawing on the responses of 178 practitioners, pharmacological agents are a useful addition to psychotherapeutic interventions, especially with those patients classified as medium or high risk for sexually violent behaviours. It would appear that most patients are medically examined, are informed of the risks and possible side effects before treatment commences and are also obliged to sign a consent form.Conclusions: Although pharmacological agents can be seen as an intrusion into a patients’ sexual self determination, results indicate that ethical and clinical standards are being met in the majority of cases. However, further promotion of current WFSBP treatment guidelines would help to standardise practice across North American and European countries.

Updating Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

Actuarial scales like the Static-99R are widely used to predict an individual's risk of sexual recidivism. However, current actuarial scales only provide rates of detected sex offenses over 10-year follow-up and do not account for all recidivism risk factors. Therefore, some forensic evaluators extrapolate, adjust, or override recidivism rates derived from actuarial scales to predict the lifetime risk of committed offenses that accounts for external risk factors, those not addressed by the actuarial scales. However, critics contend that altering rates from actuarial scales degrades their predictive validity. This article makes the case for extrapolating risk for time of exposure and for evidence-based external risk factors. It proposes using odds ratios (ORs) from case-control studies to adjust predictions from follow-up cohort studies. Finally, it shows how evaluators can apply ORs and their margins of error to sex offender risk assessment.

Similar Predictive Accuracy of the Static-99R Risk Tool for White, Black, and Hispanic Sex Offenders in California

Although considerable research has found overall moderate predictive validity of Static-99R, a sex offender risk prediction tool, relatively little research has addressed its potential for cultural bias. This prospective study evaluated the predictive validity of Static-99R across the three major ethnic groups (White, n = 789; Black, n = 466; Hispanic, n = 719) in the state of California. Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among White, Black, and Hispanic sex offenders (all area under the curve [AUC] values >.70; odds ratios >1.39). Base rates (at a Static-99R score of 2) with a fixed 5-year follow-up across ethnic groups were very similar (2.4%-3.0%) but were significantly lower than the norms (5.6%). The current findings support the use of Static-99R in risk assessment procedures for sex offenders of White, Black, and Hispanic heritage, but it should be used with caution in estimating absolute sexual recidivism rates, particularly for Hispanic sex offenders.

Field measures of psychopathy and sexual deviance as predictors of recidivism among sexual offenders.

Offenders with high levels of both psychopathy and deviant sexual interests are often described as being more prone to recidivate than other sexual offenders, and many forensic evaluators report considering this psychopathy and sexual deviance interaction when coming to conclusions about sex offender risk. However, empirical support for the interaction comes from studies using sexual deviance measures that are rarely used in the field. We examined the ability of Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) field scores and possible field measures of sexual deviance (e.g., paraphilia diagnosis, offense characteristics) to predict sexual recidivism among 687 offenders released after being evaluated for postrelease civil commitment (M follow-up = 10.5 years). PCL-R total scores and antisocial personality diagnoses were predictive of a combined category of violent or sexual recidivism, but not sexual recidivism. Paraphilia diagnoses and offense characteristics were not associated with an increased likelihood of reoffending. There was no evidence that those with high levels of both psychopathy and sexual deviance were more likely than others to reoffend. Although the psychopathy and sexual deviance interaction findings from prior studies are large and compelling, our findings highlight the need for research examining the best ways to translate those findings into routine practice. (PsycINFO Database Record

Actuarial risk assessment of sexual offenders: The psychometric properties of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG).

The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) is one of the most commonly used actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. The aims of the present field study were to examine the predictive validity of the German version of the SORAG and its individual items for different offender subgroups and recidivism criteria in sexual offenders released from the Austrian Prison System (N = 1,104; average follow-up period M = 6.48 years) within a prospective-longitudinal research design. For the prediction of violent recidivism the German version of the SORAG yielded an effect size of AUC = .74 (p < .001, 95% CI = .70-.78). The predictive accuracy for general and violent recidivism was slightly higher than for general sexual and sexual hands-on recidivism. The effect sizes were found to be higher for the child molester sample than for rapists. However, the differences were significant only for general recidivism (z = 2.48, p = .001). Further analyses exhibited the SORAG to have incremental predictive validity beyond the VRAG and the PCL-R, and to remain the only significant predictor for violent recidivism once all 3 instruments were forced into a combined regression model. Twelve out of the 14 SORAG items were found to have a significant positive relationship with violent recidivism. The comparison of the relative and absolute risk indices between the Austrian and the Canadian samples showed that the normative data distribution yielded more (absolute risk indices) or less (relative risk indices) meaningful differences between the 2 countries. (PsycINFO Database Record

Field validity of Static-99/R scores in a statewide sample of 34,687 convicted sexual offenders.

The Static-99 (and revision, the Static-99R) reflect the most researched and widely used approach to sex offender risk assessment. Because the measure is so widely applied in jurisdictions beyond those on which it was developed, it becomes crucial to examine its field validity and the degree to which published norms and recidivism rates apply to other jurisdictions. We present a new and greatly expanded field study of the predictive validity (M = 5.23 years follow-up) of the Static-99 as applied system-wide in Texas (N = 34,687). Results revealed stronger predictive validity than a prior Texas field study, especially among offenders scored after the release of an updated scoring manual in 2003 (AUC = .66 to .67, d = .65 to .69), when field reliability was also stronger. But calibration analyses revealed that the Static-99R routine sample norms led to a significant overestimation of risk in Texas, especially for offenders with scores ranging from 1 to 5. We used logistic regression to develop local Texas recidivism norms (with confidence intervals) for Static-99R scores. Overall, findings highlight the importance of revisiting and updating field study findings, and the potential benefits of using statewide data to develop local norms. (PsycINFO Database Record

The Influence of Risk Assessment Instrument Scores on Evaluators’ Risk Opinions and Sexual Offender Containment Recommendations

In Colorado, evaluators conducting sex offender risk assessments are required to assess 17 risk factors specified by the state’s Sex Offender Management Board (SOMB), in addition to scoring actuarial risk assessment instruments. This study examined the association between instrument scores, the 17 SOMB risk factors, and evaluator opinions concerning risk and need for containment in 302 Colorado cases. Evaluators’ ratings of risk indicated by noninstrument factors were often higher than their ratings of risk indicated by instrument results, but only their ratings of noninstrument factors were independently predictive of containment recommendations. Several of the most influential noninstrument factors (e.g., denial, treatment motivation) have been described by researchers as potentially misleading because they are not predictive of future offending. Findings highlight the need for more studies examining the validity of what risk assessment evaluators actually do, as opposed to what researchers think they should do.

Communicating the results of criterion referenced prediction measures: Risk categories for the Static-99R and Static-2002R sexual offender risk assessment tools.

This article describes principles for developing risk category labels for criterion referenced prediction measures, and demonstrates their utility by creating new risk categories for the Static-99R and Static-2002R sexual offender risk assessment tools. Currently, risk assessments in corrections and forensic mental health are typically summarized in 1 of 3 words: low, moderate, or high. Although these risk labels have strong influence on decision makers, they are interpreted differently across settings, even among trained professionals. The current article provides a framework for standardizing risk communication by matching (a) the information contained in risk tools to (b) a broadly applicable classification of "riskiness" that is independent of any particular offender risk scale. We found that the new, common STATIC risk categories not only increase concordance of risk classification (from 51% to 72%)-they also allow evaluators to make the same inferences for offenders in the same category regardless of which instrument was used to assign category membership. More generally, we argue that the risk categories should be linked to the decisions at hand, and that risk communication can be improved by grounding these risk categories in evidence-based definitions. (PsycINFO Database Record

A neuropsychological study of older adult first-time sex offenders

ABSTRACTBackground/Aims: The issue of whether sex offenders have cognitive deficits remains controversial. The objective of this study was to compare the neuropsychological function of older adult first time sex-offenders (FTSO), who had not previously been charged with a sexual offence prior to the age of 50, to historical long-term sex offenders (HSO) and non-sex offenders (NSO). The hypotheses were (a) that FTSO would demonstrate greater deficits in executive function, decision-making, and memory compared to non-sex offenders; and (b) the HSOs would present similar neuropsychological deficits to non-sex offenders.Method: A battery of neuropsychological measures was administered to 100 participants comprising 32 FTSOs, 36 HSOs, and 32 NSOs.Results: Both FTSOs and HSOs showed significant impairment on tests of executive function (including verbal fluency, trail-making, and the Hayling test of response inhibition) as well as on tests of verbal and verbal memory compared to NSOs; however, there was no difference between the two sex offender groups.Conclusions: Older adult sex offenders, overall, demonstrated poorer neuropsychological performance than older adult non-sex offenders did, although there was no difference between older first-time and historical offenders. Cognitive deficits may increase the risk of sexual offending due to impaired capacity in self-regulation, planning, judgment, and inhibition. A proportion of older adult sex offenders may be harboring acquired frontal lobe pathology.

Usage exploratoire d’outils d’évaluation structurée du risque de récidive en France

This communication shows the demographic and legal characteristics and statistics levels of risk of recidivism of a sample of 55 criminal offenders sentenced to lengthy prison terms. Assessments of risk levels were conducted on an exploratory basis, using the Hare Psychopathy Check-List-Revised (PCL-R), the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) and STATIC 99-R. We report the average result, the distribution of scores into risk categories, inter-correlation of tools and several statistical analyzes.

Calculating Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

Risk is the probability of an adverse event or outcome. In a previous article, I compared the Bayesian and Frequentist models of defining probability. This article compares the Bayesian and regression models of quantifying probability. Both approaches are widely used in the biomedical and behavioral sciences even though they yield different results. No consensus has emerged as to which is more appropriate. The choice between them remains controversial. This article concludes that the Bayesian model provides a viable alternative to logistic regression and may be more useful in quantifying the absolute recidivism risk of individual sex offenders. It shows how evaluators can easily calculate Bayesian probabilities and their associated credible intervals from an actuarial data set. Last, the article proposes a forensic practice guideline that evaluators do not conclude that an offender meets an absolute risk threshold unless the subject's risk exceeds the threshold by a credible margin of error.

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

An Evaluation of the Reliability, Construct Validity, and Factor Structure of the Static-2002R.

The fundamental psychometric properties of the subscales found in the Static-2002R, an actuarial measure of sexual recidivism risk, were evaluated in the current study. Namely, the reliability, concurrent and construct validity, and factor structure of the Static-2002R subscales were examined with a sample of 372 adult male sex offenders. In addition to using validated measures of sexual violence risk to examine concurrent validity, construct-related measures taken from extant risk measures and psychometric tests were correlated with three of the subscales to assess overall construct validity. Moderate support was found for the reliability of the Static-2002R. The concurrent and construct validity of the General Criminality, Persistence of Sexual Offending, and Deviant Sexual Interest subscales were supported. Generally, these findings further support the Static-2002R as a valid sex offender risk appraisal instrument that encompasses multiple distinct, clinically relevant, risk domains.

Developing Nonarbitrary Metrics for Risk Communication

Nominal risk categories for actuarial risk assessment information should be grounded in nonarbitrary, evidence-based criteria. The current study presents numeric indicators for interpreting one such tool, the Risk Matrix 2000, which is widely used to assess the recidivism risk of sexual offenders. Percentiles, risk ratios, and 5-year recidivism rates are presented based on an aggregated sample ( N = 3,144) from four settings: England and Wales, Scotland, Germany, and Canada. The Risk Matrix 2000 Sex, Violence, and Combined scales showed moderate accuracy in assessing the risk of sexual, non-sexual violent, and violent recidivism, respectively. Although there were some differences across samples in the distributions of risk categories, relative increases in recidivism for ascending risk categories were remarkably consistent. Options for presenting percentiles, risk ratios, and absolute recidivism estimates in applied evaluations are offered, with discussion of the advantages, disadvantages, and limitations of these risk communication metrics.

The predictive validity of common risk assessment tools in men with intellectual disabilities and problematic sexual behaviors

This CIHR-funded study examined whether certain current risk assessment tools were effective in appraising risk of recidivism in a sample of sex offenders with intellectual disabilities (ID). Fifty men with ID who had engaged in problematic sexual behavior (PSB) were followed for an average of 2.5 years. Recidivism was defined and measured as any illegal or problematic behavior, as well as any problematic but not necessarily illegal behavior. At the beginning of the study, each participant was rated on two risk assessment tools: the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). During each month of follow-up, participants were also rated on the Short-Dynamic Risk Scale (SDRS), an assessment tool intended to measure the risk of future problematic behaviors. Data was analyzed using t-tests, Cohen’s d and area under the curve (AUC) to test predictive validity of the assessment tools. Using the AUC, results showed that the VRAG was predictive of sexual (AUC=0.74), sexual and/or violent (AUC=0.71) and of any criminally chargeable event (AUC=0.69). The SORAG was only significantly predictive of sexual events (AUC=0.70) and the SDRS was predictive of violent events (AUC=0.71). The t-test and Cohen’s d analyses, which are less robust to deviations from the assumptions of normal and continuous distribution than AUC, did not yield significant results in each category, and therefore, while the results of this study suggest that the VRAG and the SORAG may be effective tools in measuring the short term risk of sexual recidivism; and the VRAG and SDRS may be effective tools in appraising long term risk of sexual and/or violent recidivism in this population, it should be used with caution. Regardless of the assessment tool used, risk assessments should take into account the differences between sex offenders with and without ID to ensure effective measurement.

Crime and victimisation in people with intellectual disability: a case linkage study.

BackgroundStudies have suggested that people with intellectual disability are disproportionately involved in crime both as perpetrators and victims.MethodA case linkage design used three Australian contact-level databases, from disability services, public mental health services and police records. Rates of contact, and official records of victimisation and criminal charges were compared to those in a community sample without intellectual disability.ResultsAlthough people with intellectual disability were significantly less likely to have an official record of victimisation and offending overall, their rates of violent and sexual victimisation and offending were significantly higher. The presence of comorbid mental illness considerably increased the likelihood of victimisation and offending; several sex differences were also noted.ConclusionsPeople with intellectual disability are at increased risk for both violent and sexual victimisation and offending. The presence of comorbid mental illness aggravates the risk of offending and victimisation. Future research should focus on a more nuanced exploration of the risks associated with intellectual disability and specific mental disorders and related indices of complexity.

Exploring Neural Correlates of Empathy in Juveniles Who Have Sexually Offended.

To effectively address the needs of youth who perpetrate sexual violence and reduce rates of recidivism, a better understanding of the mechanisms of juvenile sexual offending is needed. Current literature identifies various factors that are believed to put youth at risk for sexual offending, two of which are empathy deficits and childhood sexual abuse (CSA). The extent to which empathy deficits contribute to juvenile sexual offending, however, is often debated, though studies have not yet explored a neurobehavioral model of this mechanism. This pilot study used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to explore the neural correlates of empathy in juveniles who sexually offend (JSOs), and the possible role of CSA. A total of 38 males (ages 12-20) were enrolled, including 11 healthy control subjects and 27 JSOs, of which, 11 had a history of CSA. Participants underwent clinical assessment and completed an empathy task during fMRI. Using both whole-brain and region-of-interest analysis, results of the fMRI data showed no statistical differences in engagement of brain regions associated with empathy between controls and all JSOs. There were also no significant differences between JSOs with and without a history of CSA. These null findings pose implications for guiding future research studies with larger samples and more statistical power, and may support the need to further explore empathy-related explanatory models and interventions for JSOs. Neuroimaging may demonstrate to be a useful tool to identify individualized risk factors and aid in tailoring interventions for this population.

The 2015 Static-99R: Alternative Recidivism Tables for High-Risk Offenders.

The Static-99R is an actuarial scale that is commonly used to assess the recidivism risk of male sex offenders. Hanson, Thornton, Helmus, and Babchishin recently revised the Static-99R norms based on revised analyses that excluded the large Bridgewater sample. As a result, the sample size of the high risk/high need (HR/HN) group was reduced substantially, which increased the confidence intervals around the predicted recidivism rates. This study provides alternative 5- and 10-year recidivism rates based on logistic regression analyses of the entire 2009 Static-99R HR/HN group that includes the Bridgewater sample. These rates fit the observed 2009 data well and have smaller confidence intervals. We propose that using alternative sexual recidivism rates from the 2009 HR/HN group is a viable option for assessing sexually violent person (SVP) and other high-risk offenders.

Socially desirable responding and psychometric assessment of dynamic risk in sexual offenders against children

ABSTRACTDoes socially desirable responding (SDR) represent a threat to the validity of dynamic risk assessment in sex offenders’ self-reports? We studied a sample of men (N = 218) who completed a psychometric assessment battery while enrolled at Kia Marama, a prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders against children. SDR, as measured by the Marlowe-Crowne scale, was elevated compared to non-offender samples, increased from pre- to post-treatment, and was negatively correlated with dynamic risk (rs = −.30 to −.40), consistent with previous research. Measures of dynamic risk factors derived from the psychometric battery were correlated with sexual recidivism, but correlations were little changed when variance associated with SDR was removed using a regression procedure [Mills, J. F., & Kroner, D. G. (2006). Impression management and self-report among violent offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21(2), 178–192.]. These results suggest that there is a substantial component of the variance in psychometric self-reports of sexual offenders that is associated with SDR (approximately 10%), but that it does not compromise the predictive or construct validity of dynamic risk measures derived from these reports.