Risk Compensation Research Articles

A Study on Revenue Distribution of Chinese Agricultural E-Commerce Supply Chain Based on the Modified Shapley Value Method

With the rapid development of e-commerce in China, “live broadcast + e-commerce” has become an emerging mode of the e-commerce industry. The speedy growth of the digital economy has also provided a favorable external environment for fresh agricultural products to ride on the e-commerce express train. As a result, more and more suppliers of fresh agricultural products choose to sell their products on e-commerce platforms and conduct live streaming. This paper utilizes the e-commerce supply chain field survey data, takes tomato as the specific analyzed variety, and studies the revenue distribution pattern of each subject in the supply chain. The purpose of this paper is to explore the optimization strategy of the revenue distribution of an agricultural e-commerce supply chain, and the results show that the agricultural e-commerce supply chain effectively promotes the matching of supply and demand of medium- and high-end agricultural products, realizes the quality premium of medium- and high-end agricultural products, and significantly improves the overall revenue level of the supply chain. The field survey found that under the supply chain model of “farmers + cooperatives + e-commerce platform”, farmers, cooperatives, and e-commerce platforms gained $2865, $3098, and $1111, respectively, for operating one mu of tomatoes in a year. According to the traditional Shapley value method, from the point of view of the contribution to the cooperative income, part of the income of the farmers and cooperatives should be compensated to the e-commerce platform, and the specific results are as follows: the income of the farmers should be reduced from $2865 to $2729, the income of the cooperatives should be reduced from $3099 to $2955, and the income of the e-commerce platform should be increased from $1111 to $1390. According to the Shapley value method based on the risk coefficient correction, from the perspective of risk compensation, part of the earnings of the e-commerce platform should be compensated to farmers and cooperatives, so as to establish a more equitable and reasonable pattern of earnings distribution, with the specific results: the earnings of farmers should be increased to $3205, the earnings of cooperatives should be increased to $3148, and the earnings of the e-commerce platform should be reduced to $722.

Measuring Risk Perception and Risk Compensation among Local Residents toward COVID-19 in the Tourism Sandbox Islands: Comparative Evidence from the Phuket Sandbox and Samui Plus Model in Thailand

Since Thailand is a tourism-dependent country, its economy suffered tremendously during the COVID-19 lockdown. In a pioneering effort to re-open the country, two islands (Phuket and Koh Samui) began to welcome fully vaccinated international visitors in July 2021 under the “Phuket Sandbox”1 and “Samui Plus Model.” Even though the sandbox programs were found to create more income and some benefits for tourism businesses, they also generated concern among local people about contracting such an infectious disease as COVID-19. The aim of this study was to measure perception of COVID-19 infection among local residents due to contacts with in-ternational tourists. Using secondary data from a survey of 400 local residents living on the two islands, monetary compensation under the contingent valuation methods (CVM) and risk perception scale of 0–10 were analyzed to get an indication of the level of local residents’ risk perception toward COVID-19 possibly being transmitted by international tourists. Our results show that the risk perception was found to be higher among those who believed that the coronavirus could possibly result in death. Older individuals, especially females, and those with higher incomes seemed to have a higher risk perception. Residents who were working in the tourism sector were found to have a lower risk level than those who were working in other branches. There were also discordances in terms of education level and risk perception between residents in two islands. The paper suggests that awareness of residents’ risk perception and effective communication regarding such risk perception should be put in place to ensure appropriate practices that affect local residents in such sandbox areas in the future.

Mobile phone conversation during nighttime driving: Effects on driving behavior

Objectives This study aims to investigate the impact of mobile phone use (specifically, conversation), considering various use modes, on driving behavior at night. Mobile phone use is a source of driver distraction and has been associated with increased accident risk. Driving at night also entails higher accident risk and severity compared to daytime driving. Several studies have investigated the impact of mobile phone use on driving behavior; however, only a few have explored the differences between the different use modes. Most present studies involved daytime driving, although mobile phone use at night is equally if not more prevalent. Method A driving simulator experiment was designed in which 55 participants drove under nighttime simulator conditions, in different road environments (urban and rural) and under different types of distraction: no distraction, handheld, wired earphone, and speaker mode. The drives were performed during late afternoon and evening hours to resemble nighttime conditions both in the simulator and in the actual environment. Participants also completed a questionnaire for collection of different types of data. Results Results highlight the effect of mobile phone use on driving behavior, through specific indicators. Mobile phone use resulted in reduced 85th percentile driving speed and 85th percentile acceleration and increased reaction time and lateral deviation. However, safer stopping distance was observed in rural roads. Parameters relative to mobile phone use familiarity and exposure were found to mitigate mobile phone use effects. Conclusions Mobile phones affect driving behavior at night in a similar manner to that noted in several different studies considering daytime driving. The hands-free regulation should be revisited, because driver distraction also occurred under this particular use mode. Further research is required considering mobile phone use familiarity and exposure and effects of mobile phone use, because the latter is reduced with an increase in the former. Stopping distance, an understudied but more immediate surrogate measure of road safety, was increased with mobile phone use, mainly as a result of the risk compensation behavior that drivers adopt, indicating that more research is required in this field.

Self-Reported PrEP Use and Risk of Bacterial STIs Among Ontarian Men Who Are Gay or Bisexual or Have Sex With Men.

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may increase rates of bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM) through risk compensation (eg, an increase in condomless sex or number of partners); however, longitudinal studies exploring the time-dependent nature of PrEP uptake and bacterial STIs are limited. We used marginal structural models to estimate the effect of PrEP uptake on STI incidence. We analyzed data from the iCruise study, an online longitudinal study of 535 Ontarian GBM from July 2017 to April 2018, to estimate the effects of PrEP uptake on incidence of self-reported bacterial STIs (chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis) collected with 12 weekly diaries. The incidence rate was calculated as the number of infections per 100 person-months, with evaluation of the STIs overall and individually. We used marginal structural models to account for time-varying confounding and quantitative bias analysis to evaluate the sensitivity of estimates to nondifferential outcome misclassification. Participating GBM were followed up for a total of 1,623.5 person-months. Overall, 70 participants (13.1%) took PrEP during the study period. Relative to no uptake, PrEP uptake was associated with an increased incidence rate of gonorrhea (incidence rate ratio = 4.00; 95% CI, 1.67-9.58), but not of chlamydia or syphilis, and not of any bacterial STI overall. Accounting for misclassification, the median incidence rate ratio for gonorrhea was 2.36 (95% simulation interval, 1.08-5.06). We observed an increased incidence rate of gonorrhea associated with PrEP uptake among Ontarian GBM that was robust to misclassification. Although our findings support current guidelines for integrating gonorrhea screening with PrEP services, additional research should consider the long-term impact of PrEP among this population.Annals Early Access article.

Mapping the inter-provincial pathways of resources and socio-economic impacts in China's just transition of coal power

In the sustainable transition of the power system, China's resource distribution characteristics lead to a distinct geographical separation between the main production and consumption areas of coal and coal power. This separation leads to the transmission of complex inter-regional social risks and responsibilities associated with the phase-out of coal power. Considering the inter-provincial transmission of coal and coal power, this paper constructs a novel two-layer network framework incorporating both coal mining and coal power. This method systematically assesses the contributions of coal power production and consumption to provincial employment and tax revenue, and identifies key paths of inter-provincial impact transmission for the first time. In terms of total contribution, coal mining contributes significantly more to employment and tax revenue (1.45 million jobs and 143 billion RMB) than coal power production (0.69 million jobs and 58.2 billion RMB). Spatially, employment and tax revenue related to coal power are concentrated in North China's production areas and the coastal consumption regions. Provinces like Shanxi, characterized by abundant resource reserves yet low consumption, are more exposed to socio-economic risks from other provinces reducing coal use, whereas economically developed provinces like Guangdong currently benefiting more from coal consumption, should assume corresponding responsibility in the future sustainable transition of power sector. Our analysis emphasizes the need for future policies to consider inter-provincial economic and social impacts, innovating horizontal risk compensation and shared responsibility mechanisms, to secure the interests of resource-based provinces in the just transition of China's coal power industry.

Cash is King? Understanding Financing Risk in Housing Markets

Abstract In Los Angeles, all-cash home purchases quintupled during the last decade. Compared with an else-equal mortgage offer, a cash offer is associated with 29% shorter time-to-close and a 2-3.9% price discount, indicating a substantial amount of financing risk—the risk to a seller that a transaction may not close on time and may fail to occur again because a mortgage contingency fails. The estimated cash discount aligns well with a canonical model calibrated to the sample market. Our findings reveal that closing risk alone is insufficient to explain the cash discount. Rather, it turns on the possibility that a property back on the market may fail to sell, requiring a substantial risk compensation. The estimated cash discount is smaller during booms and in larger markets, highlighting the inseparability of financial frictions in the mortgage market and search frictions in the housing market.

From prevention to treatment: Prescription medication, information, and health behaviors.

Medical innovations may lessen the perceived risk of disease which can decrease the take-up of healthy behaviors, a phenomenon known as risk compensation. In contrast, a diagnosis provides updated information about the state of one's health which may motivate positive behavior change. In this paper, I consider how behavior changes in response to a diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) before and after the FDA approval of new classes of drugs to treat high blood pressure and high cholesterol in 1973. I find that individuals diagnosed with CVD are more likely to follow a diet and decrease body-mass index in response to the diagnosis, irrespective of medication approvals. Nonsmoking is a notable exception. Prior to medication availability, there is no change in smoking behavior in response to a CVD diagnosis. Conversely, when medication is available, there is a significant decline in smoking. The empirical complementarity of medication and smoking cessation may be driven by increased exposure to medical professionals (who emphasize the harms of smoking) or because medication decreases the risk of CVD death which heightens the importance of investing in future health.

Interconnectedness in the Corporate Bond Market

Does interconnectedness improve market quality? Yes.We develop an alternative network structure, the assets network: assets are connected if they are held by the same investors. We use several large datasets to build the assets network for the corporate bond market. Through careful identification strategies based on the COVID-19 shock and “fallen angels,” we find that interconnectedness improves market quality especially during stress periods. Our findings contribute to the debate on the role of interconnectedness in financial markets and show that highly interconnected corporate bonds allow for risk sharing and require a lower compensation for risk.

Drone Warfare and Threshold of the Use of Force

The proliferation of drones among both state and non-state actors, as evidenced by their widespread use, signals a shift towards more accessible forms of military engagement. In this context, the paper discusses how drones, as unmanned, remotely operated aircraft, have revolutionized warfare by enabling remote engagement and minimizing personnel risk. Concepts such as risk compensation, the 'body bag syndrome', and the potential for drones to lower the threshold for use of force has also been explored. The precision and long endurance of drones, coupled with their cost-effectiveness, emerge as double-edged swords, enhancing military capabilities while raising questions about the ease of resorting to force. The paper highlights the operational advantages of drones over manned aircraft, including rapid deployment, reduced training requirements, and operational flexibility. This paper also explores the transformative role of drone technology in contemporary military operations and examines the impact of drones on the threshold of use of force in contemporary times. Following the thematic analysis of qualitative sources backed by quantitative data, this paper explores how drones have lowered the threshold for the use of force.

Law, politics, and trade credit in China

This paper explores the interplay between politics and law enforcement in China and its effects on firm financing decisions. By examining a sample of corporate lawsuits involving listed firms in China, we find that politically connected firms are less likely to be defendants, have higher win rates, and experience shorter litigation durations than non-connected firms. Additionally, we observe that firms with higher legal risk extend more accounts receivable and receive less accounts payable, but this relationship holds only for non-connected firms. Our findings support the financing advantage theory for politically connected firms and the legal risk compensation view for non-connected firms. Moreover, reforms in China's judicial system do not appear to mitigate the disadvantages faced by non-connected firms in terms of lawsuit outcomes and trade credit provision. Our findings suggest that well-functioned judicial independence might be still lacking in China, and that political connections continue to negatively impact law enforcement and corporate policies.

How do Capital Market Pressures Affect Pay Structures? Evidence Based on Short Selling and Firms’ Internal Pay Gaps

This paper examines the relationship between short selling and internal pay gaps of listed companies, and explores how short selling affects the company's pay structure. To this end, this paper utilizes the data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2022, and adopts the staggered-DID method, and finds that short selling significantly increases the internal pay gaps of firms subject to the short selling mechanism, but gaps are instead narrowed in SOEs and technology-intensive firms. The mechanism analysis suggests that short selling widens pay gaps by increasing the demand for highly educated managers and their compensation for job risk. The result of this paper provides a new perspective for understanding the socio-economic effects of capital market policies, as well as a rationale for formulating fair and reasonable pay policies.

A Review of Multi-Agent Game in Intellectual Property Pledge Financing

To promote the theoretical research and business development of intellectual property pledge financing, this paper summarizes the research status of multi-agent game in intellectual property pledge financing. At present, scholars’ research on multi-agent game in intellectual property pledge financing mainly focuses on the game between borrowers and lenders, the game between lenders and third-party intermediaries (or platforms), and the game between borrowers, lenders and third-party intermediaries (or platforms). Overall, scholars have conducted extensive research on the game between borrowers and lenders, while research on the game between borrowers, lenders, and third-party intermediaries (or platforms) is relatively weak. Especially when the government implements financial subsidies and interest subsidies for borrowers, financial subsidies for third-party intermediaries (or platforms), and risk compensation for lenders, there is a lack of research on the intellectual property pledge financing game with the government as an independent game subject. Future research can focus on the game between borrowers, lenders, and the government under government incentives, as well as the game between borrowers, lenders, third-party intermediaries (or platforms) and the government under government incentives.

How do Treasury dealers manage their positions?

Using 31 years of data (1990–2020) on U.S. Treasury dealer positions, we find that Treasury issuance is the main driver of dealers’ weekly inventory changes. Such inventory fluctuations are only partially offset in adjacent weeks and not significantly hedged with futures. Dealers are compensated for inventory risk by means of subsequent price appreciation of their holdings. Amid increased balance sheet costs attributable to post-crisis regulatory changes, dealers significantly reduce their position taking and layoff inventory faster. Moreover, the increased participation of non-dealers (investment funds) in the primary market contributes to diminishing compensation for inventory risk taken on at auctions.

Efficacy of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision to Prevent HIV Infection Among Men Who Have Sex With Men : A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Observational studies suggest that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) may lower HIV risk among men who have sex with men (MSM). A randomized controlled trial (RCT) is needed to confirm this. To assess the efficacy of VMMC in preventing incident HIV infection among MSM. An RCT with up to 12 months of follow-up. (Chinese Clinical Trial Registry: ChiCTR2000039436). 8 cities in China. Uncircumcised, HIV-seronegative men aged 18 to 49 years who self-reported predominantly practicing insertive anal intercourse and had 2 or more male sex partners in the past 6 months. VMMC. Rapid testing for HIV was done at baseline and at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Behavioral questionnaires and other tests for sexually transmitted infections were done at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. The primary outcome was HIV seroconversion using an intention-to-treat analysis. The study enrolled 124 men in the intervention group and 123 in the control group, who contributed 120.7 and 123.1 person-years of observation, respectively. There were 0 seroconversions in the intervention group (0 infections [95% CI, 0.0 to 3.1 infections] per 100 person-years) and 5 seroconversions in the control group (4.1 infections [CI, 1.3 to 9.5 infections] per 100 person-years). The HIV hazard ratio was 0.09 (CI, 0.00 to 0.81; P = 0.029), and the HIV incidence was lower in the intervention group (log-rank P = 0.025). The incidence rates of syphilis, herpes simplex virus type 2, and penile human papillomavirus were not statistically significantly different between the 2 groups. There was no evidence of HIV risk compensation. Few HIV seroconversions and limited follow-up period. Among MSM who predominantly practice insertive anal intercourse, VMMC is efficacious in preventing incident HIV infection; MSM should be included in VMMC guidelines. The National Science and Technology Major Project of China.

The Predictive Ability of U.S. Stock Market Skewness on Indonesian Stock Market Returns

The three-moment capital asset pricing model (three-moment CAPM) suggests that the expected excess return on stocks should include compensation for skewness risk. This study aims to investigate the ability of U.S. stock market skewness to predict Indonesian stock market returns. The data used in this research includes the S&P500 Index, JCI, JII, and LQ45 from January 2001 to December 2022. The results of this study indicate that U.S. stock market skewness can predict future excess returns of the Indonesian stock market. Additionally, when the estimation model incorporates alternative variables from both the U.S. and Indonesian stock markets, the predictive ability of U.S. stock market skewness remains significant and outperforms these alternative variables. The findings of this research can be used as a strategy for investors when trading in the Indonesian stock market. When the skewness of the U.S. stock market increases, the return of the Indonesian stock market is expected to decrease in the following month.

A temporal statistical assessment of the effectiveness of bicyclist safety helmets in mitigating injury severities in vehicle/bicyclist crashes

This study estimates mixed logit models taking into account heterogeneity in means and partially constrained parameters in order to explore possible shifts within parameters over time to study factors influencing bicyclist injury severity outcomes. Separate statistical models are estimated for two bicyclist helmet-wearing scenarios (helmet and non-helmet) using a comprehensive dataset from Florida covering a three-year period to assess COVID-19 effects from the 1st of January 2019 to the 31st of December 2021. This research evaluates several factors influencing helmeted and non-helmeted bicyclist injury severity, encompassing the attributes of drivers and cyclists, the environment and weather, the features of the roads and their temporal aspects, and the different types of vehicles. The performed analysis further enhances model robustness by assessing the temporal stability and transferability across different contexts through likelihood ratio tests, alongside an in-depth examination of the temporal consistency of explanatory variables via marginal effects analysis, confirming significant variations between non-helmeted and helmeted bicyclist models and revealing temporal shifts in factors affecting injury severity during the study period. Findings from the model estimations identify several significant variables with consistent parameter estimates across years. Stop signs, cycling with traffic, and dark, unlit conditions increase severe injury risk in non-helmet models, while the stop sign indicator consistently reduces severe injury risk in helmet models. Statistically significant random parameters are identified across different years and helmet-wearing scenarios, including the male driver indicator, which exhibits varying effects on injury severity. Out-of-sample prediction analysis suggests helmets reduce severe injury probability but may increase minor injuries and decrease no-injury accidents, indicating potential risk compensation behavior among helmeted bicyclists. Although helmets offer protection against severe injuries for bicyclists, it is crucial to adopt a comprehensive safety approach, particularly given the evolving demographics of bicyclists amid the COVID-19 outbreak. This entails considering factors like bicyclist and driver behavior, environmental conditions, and infrastructure enhancements. Policymakers, road safety professionals, and advocacy groups should collaborate to develop holistic strategies to address the determinants of bicycle crash severity outcomes and enhance safety measures for bicyclists across diverse road environments.

Is badger culling associated with risk compensation behaviour among cattle farmers?

Risk compensation theory suggests that behaviours are modified in response to interventions that remove risks by substituting them with other risky behaviours to maintain a 'risk equilibrium'. Alternatively, risk reduction interventions may result in spill-over behaviours that seek to minimise risks further. This paper assessed evidence for these behavioural risk responses among farmers in response to badger culling that seeks to remove the risk of bovine tuberculosis in cattle. Data from the UK's randomised badger culling trial were re-analysed, comparing farmers' cattle movement practices in proactive and reactive culling areasand control areas. Analysis compared cattle movementsduring and after the trial using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. The analysis found no strong evidence of risk compensation behaviours among farmers who experienced proactive culling. However, strong evidence for a reduction in cattle movements in reactive culling areas was found. The results indicate high levels of inertia within farming systems in relation to cattle purchasing. Data do not account for the risk of cattle purchases and reflect previous policy regimens. Evidence from recent badger culling interventions should be analysed. Proactive badger culling was not associated with risk compensation behaviours, while reactive badger culling was associated with decreased risk taking among farmers.

Acceptability of a Future HIV Vaccine: A Rapid Scoping Review.

A HIV vaccine is not available yet, but perceptions of HIV vaccines will be important to explore before their roll-out for effective vaccine promotion. This article presents the findings of a rapid scoping review of the literature to identify individual, social, and vaccine-related factors associated with the acceptability of a future HIV vaccine. We searched 5 databases (Medline OVID, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Cochrane) using relevant keywords and Medical Subject Headings. All articles, regardless of study design, publication year, and geographic location, were included if they examined HIV vaccine acceptability and its underlying factors. We retrieved 2386 unique articles, of which 76 were included in the final review. Perceived benefits (34.2%) and perceived susceptibility (25.0%) were primary individual factors of HIV vaccine acceptability. Misinformation (17.1%) and distrust (22.4%) regarding future HIV vaccines, HIV stigma (30.3%), and social support (10.5%) were social factors of HIV vaccine acceptability. Vaccine efficacy (42.1%), cost (28.9%), and side effects (67.1%) were common vaccine characteristics influencing HIV vaccine acceptability. Altruism (10.5%) and risk compensation (26.3%) were also key factors. Our analyses revealed that skeptical beliefs, negative perceptions, and misconceptions about HIV vaccines are real barriers to their acceptability. To alleviate HIV vaccine hesitancy and address trust concerns, strategic vaccine communication should be disseminated by trustworthy sources. Messages should impart accurate vaccine information and emphasize both individual and social benefits of HIV vaccination, as well as leverage social support in increasing willingness to get a future HIV vaccine.

Risk compensation after COVID-19 vaccination: Evidence from vaccine rollout by exact birth date in South Korea.

We utilize the phased rollout of COVID-19 vaccines by exact birth date in South Korea as a natural experiment for testing risk compensation. People may resume face-to-face social activities following vaccination because they perceive lower risk of infection. Applying a regression discontinuity design based on birth date cutoffs for vaccine eligibility, we find no evidence of risk-compensating behaviors, as measured by large, high-frequency data from credit card and airline companies as well as survey data. We find some evidence of self-selection into vaccine take-up based on perception toward vaccine effectiveness and side effects, but the treatment effects do not differ between compliers and never-takers.

Are facemasks effective against particulate matter pollution? Evidence from the field

The use of anti-pollution facemasks (APFs) in defense against particulate matter (PM) pollution is subject to debate as air pollution and wildfire events intensify. Inward leakage due to imperfect fitting and the Peltzman effect of people spending more time outdoors when wearing masks have led to mixed evidence regarding the effectiveness of APFs, which in turn has contributed to conflicting public messages about APFs with potentially large public health costs. We conduct a large-scale randomized field study on individuals' daily outdoor time and mask wearing behaviors and the associated health outcomes during an entire winter heating season in a provincial capital city in Northeastern China. We find that APFs used in everyday life achieved an overall efficiency of 80% in reducing respiratory or cardiovascular disease related doctor visits. Mask wearing, due to its discomfort, reduced outdoor time. However, the added protection provided by masks against PM led respondents to spend more time outdoors on smog days, and this relative Peltzman effect wiped out about 12% of APFs' health benefits. Taken together, APFs’ health benefits far exceed their financial costs. These findings call for affirmatory but careful messaging to the public about using APFs as personal protection against PM pollution.