Mapping the inter-provincial pathways of resources and socio-economic impacts in China's just transition of coal power

Abstract

In the sustainable transition of the power system, China's resource distribution characteristics lead to a distinct geographical separation between the main production and consumption areas of coal and coal power. This separation leads to the transmission of complex inter-regional social risks and responsibilities associated with the phase-out of coal power. Considering the inter-provincial transmission of coal and coal power, this paper constructs a novel two-layer network framework incorporating both coal mining and coal power. This method systematically assesses the contributions of coal power production and consumption to provincial employment and tax revenue, and identifies key paths of inter-provincial impact transmission for the first time. In terms of total contribution, coal mining contributes significantly more to employment and tax revenue (1.45 million jobs and 143 billion RMB) than coal power production (0.69 million jobs and 58.2 billion RMB). Spatially, employment and tax revenue related to coal power are concentrated in North China's production areas and the coastal consumption regions. Provinces like Shanxi, characterized by abundant resource reserves yet low consumption, are more exposed to socio-economic risks from other provinces reducing coal use, whereas economically developed provinces like Guangdong currently benefiting more from coal consumption, should assume corresponding responsibility in the future sustainable transition of power sector. Our analysis emphasizes the need for future policies to consider inter-provincial economic and social impacts, innovating horizontal risk compensation and shared responsibility mechanisms, to secure the interests of resource-based provinces in the just transition of China's coal power industry.