Risk-averse Investors Research Articles

Volatility spillovers across NFTs news attention and financial markets

The aim of this study is to investigate the volatility spillover connectedness between NFTs attention and financial markets. This paper firstly proposes a new direct proxy for the public’s attention in the NFT market: the non-fungible tokens attention index (NFTsAI), based on 590m news stories from the LexisNexis News & Business database and applies the historical decomposition to assess the historical variations of the NFTsAI. Then the empirical analysis is performed via a TVP-VAR volatility spillover connectedness model. The empirical results show that NFTsAI indicates NFT markets are dominated by cryptocurrency, DeFi, equity, bond, commodity, F.X. and gold markets. And NFT markets are volatility spillover receivers. In addition, NFT assets could impede financial contagion and have significant diversification benefits. Employing a panel pooled OLS regression model as a supplementary analysis and a GARCH-MIDAS model as a robustness test. This study reveals that NFTsAI has sufficient power to explain the return of NFT assets from a fixed effect perspective, and NFTsAI contains useful forecasting information for both short and long-term volatility of NFT markets, separately. The new NFTsAI and the empirical findings contain useful insights for risk-averse investors, portfolio managers, institutional investors, academics and financial policy regulators.

Is Bitcoin a Safe Haven for Indian Investors? A GARCH Volatility Analysis

This paper attempts to understand the dynamic interrelationships and financial asset capabilities of Bitcoin by analysing several aspects of its volatility vis-a-vis other asset classes. This study aims to analyse the volatility dynamics of the returns of Bitcoin. An asymmetric GARCH model (EGARCH) is used to investigate whether Bitcoin may be useful in risk management and ideal for risk-averse investors in anticipation of negative shocks to the market (leverage effect). This paper also examines Bitcoin as an investment and hedge alternative to gold as well as NSE NIFTY using a multivariate DCC GARCH model. DCC GARCH models are also used to check whether correlation (co-movement) between the markets is time-varying, examine returns and volatility spillovers between markets and the effect of the outbreak of COVID-19 in India on the investigated markets. The results show that given the supply of Bitcoin is fixed, low returns realisation is equivalent to excess supply over demand wherein investors are selling off Bitcoin during bad times. The positive co-movement between Bitcoin and gold during the COVID-19 outbreak shows that investors perceived Bitcoin as a relatively safe investment. However, overall analysis shows that Bitcoin was not considered a safe hedge and an investment option by Indian investors during the study period.

Risk and Uncertainty at the Outbreak of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The classic paradigm in finance maintains that asset returns are paid as a compensation for bearing risk. This study extends the literature and explores whether asset prices are also affected by uncertainty. This research invokes the Expected Utility with Uncertainty Probabilities Model and utilizes the natural experiment conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, in order to determine whether investors’ behavior during the sharp economic decline was driven by risk, or uncertainty. We limit this research only to the outbreak of the pandemic, since the recovery of the markets suggests investors have adjusted to the unexpected nature of the crisis. Using high-frequency data of the S&P 500 Index, we estimate the investors’ risk and ambiguity aversions, finding that in the pre-pandemic period investors exhibited risk aversion as well as an ambiguity-seeking attitude, while during the pandemic they demonstrated risk- and ambiguity-neutral behavior. The implications of these findings could suggest that in regular times, the financial markets are operated by risk-averse investors with decreasing risk-averse behavior.

An optimal portfolio method based on real time prediction of gold and bitcoin prices

Aiming at the portfolio problem of gold and bitcoin with a given linear trading commission, this paper puts forward the stage implementation forecast and optimal portfolio model. In the aspect of data prediction, SMA is used to predict the initial data, LSTM is used to predict the price trend of long-term data, and daily updated real-time price data is predicted. Considering the risk aversion of investors, the heuristic algorithm is used to solve the daily trading strategy of maximizing utility from September 12th, 2016 to September 12th, 2021. The simulation analysis of the sliding window shows that the algorithm can realize reasonable prediction, which verifies the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Is geopolitical risk priced in the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns?

We examine the role of geopolitical risk in the cross-sectional pricing of cryptocurrencies. We calculate cryptocurrency exposure to changes in the geopolitical risk index and document that coins with the lowest geopolitical beta outperform those with high geopolitical beta. Our findings suggest that risk-averse investors require additional compensation as motivation to hold cryptocurrencies with low and negative geopolitical betas, and they are willing to pay a premium for assets with high and positive geopolitical betas. The effect cannot be explained by known return predictors and is robust to many considerations.

Should risk-averse investors target the portfolios of socially responsible companies?

Research background: Companies are required to implement Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) policies to mitigate the adverse social and environmental effects of their activities and gain legitimacy in the eyes of society. Sustainability initiatives are costly for companies but, at the same time, they are important value-creation drivers. Retail and institutional investors are increasingly choosing portfolios based on CSR performance. However, the relationship between CSR and market beta has hardly been studied at all in the literature, and no direct comparison of the U.S. and European markets has been conducted. Purpose of the article: The two fundamental variables that define an investment are return and risk, and the appropriate risk-return combination depends on the profile of the investors. This research aims to analyze the relationship between CSR and market risk, understood as price volatility and measured by market beta in the U.S. and European markets. Methods: Companies listed in the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 300 indexes from 2015 to 2019 were examined using OLS regressions with instrumental variables (IV) and fixed effects panel data. Findings & value added: The results show that those companies with higher CSR have betas below the market index in the U.S. market as well as lower volatility, and are, therefore, more appropriate choices for risk-averse investors. However, this relationship was not confirmed in the European market. This difference may be justified by two reasons: 1) The non-adherence of the United States to the Kyoto Protocol, resulting in less strict legal regulations than in Europe; 2) In the U.S. market, betas are more aggressive, while in the European market they are more defensive, with little margin for reduction. This research contributes to the current state of knowledge by providing empirical evidence that social, environmental, and corporate governance sustainability practices reduce stock volatility in the U.S. capital market, which is highly relevant for private and institutional investors who make their investments based on moral criteria. The results are current and reliable since they cover a broad and recent period for two of the most important stock market indexes.

A value-at-risk approach to futures hedge

AbstractThis paper examines the value-at-risk (VaR) implications of mean-variance hedging. We derive an equivalence between the VaR-based hedge and the mean-variance hedging. This method transfers the investor's subjective risk-aversion coefficient into the estimated VaR measure. As a result, we characterize the collapse probability bounds under which the VaR-based hedge could be insignificantly different from the minimum-variance hedge in the presence of estimation risk. The results indicate that the squared information ratio of futures returns is the primary factor determining the difference between the minimum-variance and VaR-based hedges.

OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO CHOICE WITH CRASH AND DEFAULT RISK

We consider the worst-case scenario portfolio approach, introduced by Korn & Wilmott (2002), in a multi-asset setting, where asset defaults can occur in addition to asset crashes. In our model, the strictly risk-averse investor does not know which asset is affected by the worst-case scenario. Based on a reformulation of the value function we define the set of minimum constant portfolio processes. We prove the existence of such a process that solves the worst-case crash/ default portfolio problem. In particular, we prove the existence of a portfolio process that is optimal for the investor and at the same time makes him/ her indifferent to the time of occurrence of the worst possible crash or default scenario. The optimal portfolios are derived from solutions of non-linear differential equations. Therefore, we construct an algorithmic framework to analyze selected examples. These examples show the importance of adapting the portfolio process when considering such worst-case scenarios in the investment problem.

Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure Projects: The Role of Ida Status of a Country

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly promoted by advocates as an innovative policy tool for redressing inefficiency in traditional public procurement mechanisms. Governments, operating on razor-thin budgets in many developing countries, also pursue PPPs on the grounds that they will bridge their countries' infrastructure gaps. This paper empirically investigates the main incentives that motivate both public and private entities to pursue PPPs as an infrastructure investment tool, focusing on the International Development Association (IDA) status of a country. This study uses a cross-country panel regression for 36 developing countries over 1990-2019, where the outcome variable is the project count as well as the level of PPP investment (PPI). For the regression of the former the study applies Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP), while for the latter it uses tobit model. While IDA status is negatively associated with PPPs, GDP per capita, economic growth, market size, M2 money supply and inflation are all positively related with PPPs. While volatile exchange rates discourage risk-averse investors, fuel export and foreign aid encourage them to participate in PPPs. Findings also suggest that private investors are less inclined toward PPPs in highly indebted and effectively governed countries. Although the years of PPP experience initially attract more PPPs, further experiences are proving to be frustrating and discouraging of future PPPs. The size of the market, purchasing power in terms of per capita GDP, and inflation all emerge as the most relevant factors in attracting PPPI. Countries with substantial foreign exchange reserves and higher fuel exports are found to attract greater PPPI. Similarly, crisis-ridden nations also pursue more PPPIs. Finally, government effectiveness is found to exert a negative impact on PPPI. The findings could be useful for governments of these countries to guide the design and implementation of policies conducive to a sound investment environment. The prevalence of PPPs in richer countries and the private sectors' preference for higher inflation and less effective government hint a rent-seeking motive on the part of private entities. Alternatives should, therefore, be investigated before pursuing the PPP route. If governments opt to engage in PPPs, they have to pay attention to certain macro conditions.

EVALUATION OF EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE IN INDONESIA USING SHARPE, TREYNOR AND JENSEN METHODS

Besides investing in stocks, bonds, or gold, investors can also opt to invest in mutual funds. Mutual funds can be an alternative investment solution for beginner or risk-averse investor that doesn't have much knowledge in analyzing portfolio performance or know how to make a proper portfolio. There are four types of mutual funds, equity mutual funds, fixed income mutual funds, money market mutual funds, and balanced mutual funds. Equity mutual funds themselves are a type of mutual funds that invest at least 80% in stocks; therefore, the risk is quite higher than other types of mutual funds. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of equity mutual funds available in Indonesia by using the Sharpe Index, Treynor Ratio, and Jensen Index from 2018 to 2020. The writer chooses to use the population of 7 equity mutual funds and Composite Stock Price Index of Indonesia data for the market return. Out of 7 chosen equity mutual funds, it can be concluded that Sucorinvest Equity was the best-performing equity fund during the study period.

Comparative analysis of risk-aversion and strategic investment behavior in generation expansion

Both risk-averse behavior and strategic bidding may distort the outcome of energy and capacity markets. Although these two behavioral aspects may trigger similar bidding behavior and investments into generation capacity, they are fundamentally different.While in the literature risk-aversion and strategic behavior have been investigated separately, the presented research offers a comparative analysis to identify situations in which both types of behavior result in the same outcome. First, a framework is introduced in which both strategic and risk-averse behavior can be investigated for a generation expansion planning problem. The problem including the risk-averse investor is modeled as a Nash-equilibrium problem and solved via Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers, whereas the Stackelberg game between the strategic agent and the markets is formulated as a bi-level optimization problem and solved using disjunctive constraints.Using a set of 1920 problem instances we reveal that the distinguishability of the two types of behavior is highly technology-dependent and influenced by the way the capacity target is set. Implications of this work may support regulators in disentangling risk-aversion and strategic behavior based on observed market outcomes.

Climate risk disclosure and climate risk management in UK asset managers

PurposeFramed within global policy debates over the need for private financial flows to align with the capital requirements of the Paris Agreement, this paper examines UK asset managers in their approaches to disclosing and managing climate risk. This paper identifies and evaluates climate risk management practices among this under-researched investor group in their capacity to address fundamental behavioural obstacles to low-carbon investment.Design/methodology/approachThis paper takes an inductive approach to document analysis, applying content and thematic analysis to the annual disclosures of the 28 largest UK asset managers (by assets under management), including the investment management arms of insurance and pension companies.FindingsThe main takeaway from this research is that today’s climate risk management strategies hold potential to effectively address traditionally climate risk-averse investor behaviour and investment processes in the UK asset management context. However, this research finds that the use of environmental, social and governance (ESG) investment strategies to mitigate climate risks is a “grey area” in which climate risk management practices are undefined within broad sustainability and responsible investment agendas. In doing so, this paper invites further research into the extent to which climate risks are considered in ESG investment.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to research in sustainable finance and behavioural finance, by identifying the latest climate risk management techniques used among UK-headquartered asset managers and uniquely evaluating these in their capacity to address barriers to low-carbon investment arising from organisational behaviours and processes.

Single Index Model: An Implication on Bankex Stocks

The objective of the study is to find out whether the Bankex stocks (17 bank stocks) are undervalued or overvalued with respect to the current Sensex high levels using Single Index Model. It also aims at finding out the future expectations from these stocks. In the financial economics literature, it is generally assumed that risk-averse investors expect higher returns for investing in relatively riskier assets and therefore, the risk premium represents the compensation to the investor for assuming risk. The non-zero risk premiums are not only directly unobservable but also vary substantially over time. Apart from the 'animal spirits' driving investor exuberance, short-term volatility in risk premiums could result from shifts in inflation expectations, monetary policy shocks, changes in market perceptions relating to the underlying 'fundamentals', all of which cause frequent corrections in expectations about future cash flows. The relationship between premiums or excess returns, representing the excess of expected returns over risk free returns and risk, measured by the volatility of market prices of assets is an intensely debated theme in the literature. In particular, the focus of empirical investigation has been on the dynamics of the risk-return relationship in equity markets. This paper undertakes an empirical verification of the rational markets excess returns and stock excess return based on Single Index Model.

Investment Preferences of Women:A Comparative Study of Women Stock and Non Stock Investors

With the changes in the social structure of a society, the individuals need to manage their wealth and resources in such a way so as to ensure that the various personal and family goals that arise during their lifetime are met. This calls for a choice of investment options that would meet the individual's needs and personal preferences. Since the investment preferences of women are different from that of men, therefore, the financial institutions need to target women as a separate market segment.Moreover, although the involvement of women in various sectors has grown over the past few decades, their participation in the stock market is still very limited. Thus, with greater number of women entering the workforce and with tremendous changes in financial behavior of women, studying the investment preferences of women has become all the more important. Therefore, the current study is an attempt to examine the investment preferences of women stock as well as non-stock investors in Punjab. For the purpose of the study, data were collected from primary sources using a pre tested, well-structured questionnaire. To analyze the collected data, Descriptive Statistics have been used. The results of the study brought out that Fixed Deposits are the most preferred investment avenue of women investors in Punjab. Women non stock investors aspire to invest in the stock market in the near future while women stock investors show less inclination towards the stock market. The finding highlights the fact that women who are already investing in the stock market are not satisfied and want to withdraw their investments from the stock market.The paper suggests that education and awareness camps should be organized especially for women. Increase in awareness about the stock market will lead to trust and satisfaction among women, thereby improving their participation in the stock market.Women being risk averse investors need to trust the stock market in order to continue investing in it.

Does risk sorting explain overpricing in experimental asset markets?

Sorting according to the gender or cognitive abilities of the traders has been investigated as a potential source of overpricing in asset markets. Here we study if sorting according to risk attitudes matters, motivated by the fact that filtering out risk-averse investors is practiced widely in Europe and is in line with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) of the EU.Despite the central role of risk attitude in the literature, our study is the first that sorts participants into markets by risk tolerance and tests its effect on overpricing. We show that risk sorting can explain overpricing only partially: Markets with the most risk-tolerant traders exhibit larger overpricing than markets with the most risk-averse traders. In our study, risk aversion does not correlate with gender or cognitive abilities, bringing in an additional factor to understand overpricing.

Flight-to-safety and retail investor behavior

Flight-to-safety (FTS) episodes are associated with substantial yet short-lived changes in expected returns on equities and bonds. These price changes are typically surrounded by active trading and/or risk transfer between different investors. Using aggregate net exchanges, flows from bond to equity mutual funds, in the US for a period 1984 until 2015, I empirically investigate retail investor behavior around FTS episodes. Overall, I find a reversal statistical relation between net exchanges and market excess returns. A one-standard-deviation shock to net exchanges leads to an increase of market excess return of 1.75%, of which 72% is reversed within 5 months. In particular, FTS episodes are preceded by periods where more risk averse investors, e.g. retail investors, rebalance their portfolios towards risky assets. A trading strategy that is based on signals from past net exchanges outperforms the market portfolio, significantly during FTS periods by 1.4% monthly. However, I find that the observed reversal relationship is not necessarily due to price ‘noise’ induced by uninformed trading. It is more reasonable that the sudden increase in market stress and selling of risky assets is caused by other demand/supply shocks driven by increased economic uncertainty.

Searching for higher-performance, income-generating assets: a mutual fund assessment on asset-backed securities

PurposeIn the search for alternative income-generating assets, the paper addresses the following question, one that the literature has yet to answer: what is a reasonable allocation, if any, to asset-backed securities within a 60–40% stock-bond balanced portfolio of mutual funds?Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the Black–Litterman model of Modern Portfolio Theory to test the efficacy of adding asset-backed securities to the classic 60–40% stock-bond portfolio of mutual funds. The authors use out-of-sample tests of one, three, five, and ten years to determine a reasonable asset allocation. The data are monthly and range from January 2000 through September 2021.FindingsThe statistical evidence indicates a modest reward-risk added value from the addition of asset-backed securities, as measured by the Sharpe “reward-to-variability” ratio, in holding periods of three, five, and ten years. Based on the findings, the authors conclude that a reasonable asset allocation for income-seeking, risk-averse investors who follow the classic 60%–40% stock-bond allocation is 8%–10%.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings apply to a stock-bond balanced portfolio of mutual funds. Other fund combinations could produce different results.Practical implicationsInvestors and money managers can use the findings to improve portfolio performance.Originality/valueFor investors seeking higher income-generating securities in the current record-low interest rate environment, the authors determine a reasonable asset allocation range on asset-backed securities. This study is the first to provide such direction to these investors.

Are Shariah-compliant firms less prone to stock price crash risk? Evidence from Malaysia

PurposeThe term “Shariah compliance” states that a firm conducts business activities within the boundaries stipulated by Islamic law. The purpose of this study is to empirically examine whether a firm’s Shariah compliance helps in reducing firm-specific stock price crash risk (SPCR).Design/methodology/approachUsing the data of 10,391 firm-year observations of non-financial public listed firms in Malaysia from 2001–2017, this study uses the panel data estimation technique for regression analysis. Moreover, a series of alternative estimations has been applied to check the consistency of results.FindingsThe findings reveal a significant negative impact of firms’ Shariah compliance on SPCR. The results indicate that Shariah-compliant (SC) firms are less likely to hoard bad news, ultimately reducing SPCR. The results also unveil a possible mechanism through which SC firms reduce SPCR. The findings reveal that SC firms are less likely to be involved in earnings management, which reduces the risk of a stock price crash in SC firms. It highlights the behavioral differences in financial reporting between SC firms and Shariah non-compliant (SNC) firms.Practical implicationsThis research adds to the existing literature of Islamic capital markets from the perceptive of SPCR. The SPCR exhibits a tail risk of the stocks and is very important for risk management and investment decisions. The findings of this study will help risk-averse investors to include SC firms in their investment portfolios for risk minimization. The results also guide policymakers and regulatory bodies to rethink the monitoring mechanisms of publicly listed firms.Originality/valueThis study is unique, as it highlights that firms’ Shariah compliance reduces SPCR.

Market risk aversion under volatility shifts: An experimental study

We propose an experiment to analyze the relationship between volatility regimes and investors’ behavior and explore the mechanism by which aggregated risk aversion is configured. We design a market in which the volatility of the fundamentals is controlled and exogenously manipulated. Then we analyze the participation and trading behavior of participants under different volatility states. We observe a decrease in the market risk aversion during high volatility periods. In these periods, relatively more risk-averse investors do not participate in the risky market while less risk-averse investors trade. The individual risk aversion level of agents does not change during the experiment which leads us to conclude that the changes in market risk aversion during high volatility periods are mainly due to a participation effect.

The diversification benefits of cryptocurrency asset categories and estimation risk: pre and post Covid-19

We examine the diversification benefits of cryptocurrency asset categories. To mitigate the effects of estimation risk, we employ the Bayes-Stein model with no short-selling and variance-based constraints. We estimate the inputs using lasso regression and elastic net regression, employing the shrunk Wishart stochastic volatility model and Gaussian random projection. We consider nine cryptocurrency asset categories, and find that all but two provide significant out-of-sample diversification benefits. The lower is investor risk aversion, the more beneficial are cryptocurrencies as portfolio diversifiers. During uncertain economic environments, such as the post-Covid-19 period, cryptocurrencies provide the same diversification benefits as in more stable environments. Our results are robust to different portfolio benchmarks, regression technique, transaction cost, portfolio constraints, higher moments and Black–Litterman models.