Risk Assessment Output Research Articles

A broad-scale assessment of the risk to coastal seagrasses from cumulative threats

Informing the management of coastal marine habitats at broad spatial scales is difficult because of the costs associated with collecting and analyzing ecological data at that scale. Spatially explicit assessments of the risk to coastal marine habitats from cumulative threats provide an alternative approach by identifying sites that are exposed to multiple anthropogenic threats at broad scales. In this study, qualitative measures of vulnerability were combined with geospatial data to evaluate the risk to coastal seagrasses at the scale of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region (∼26,000 km2) of Queensland, Australia. The risk assessment outputs identified agricultural, urban and industrial runoff, and urban and port developments as the major anthropogenic activities threatening coastal seagrasses. ‘Hot spots’ with multiple threat exposure were all in industrial port locations and the southern two-thirds of the GBR. There is a distinct discontinuity in threat exposure along the GBR coast with 98% of seagrass meadows in the northern third exposed to only low levels of anthropogenic risk. The clustering of threat exposure is discussed in terms of coastal management policy. The approach outlined in this study provides management agencies a method of achieving maximum return for minimal investment in data collection at broad spatial scales by identifying sites where management intervention would be best targeted.

Assessing environmental risks through fuzzy parameterized probabilistic analysis

A fuzzy parameterized probabilistic analysis (FPPA) method was developed in this study to assess risks associated with environmental pollution-control problems. FPPA integrated environmental transport modeling, fuzzy transformation, probabilistic risk assessment, fuzzy risk quantification into a general risk assessment framework, and was capable of handling uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-parameterized stochastic distributions. The proposed method was applied to two environmental pollution problems, with one being about the point-source pollution in a river system with uncertain water quality parameters and the other being concerned with groundwater contaminant plume from waste landfill site with poorly known contaminant physical properties. The study results indicated that the complex uncertain features had significant impacts on modeling and risk-assessment outputs; the degree of impacts of modeling parameters were highly dependent on the level of imprecision of these parameters. The results also implied that FPPA was capable of addressing vagueness or imprecision associated with probabilistic risk evaluation, and help generate risk outputs that could be elucidated under different possibilistic levels. The proposed method could be used by environmental managers to evaluate trade-offs involving risks and costs, as well as identify management solutions that sufficiently hedge against dual uncertainties.

Predictive microbiology models vs. modeling microbial growth within Listeria monocytogenes risk assessment: What parameters matter and why

Predictive microbiology models are essential tools to model bacterial growth in quantitative microbial risk assessments. Various predictive microbiology models and sets of parameters are available: it is of interest to understand the consequences of the choice of the growth model on the risk assessment outputs. Thus, an exercise was conducted to explore the impact of the use of several published models to predict Listeria monocytogenes growth during food storage in a product that permits growth. Results underline a gap between the most studied factors in predictive microbiology modeling (lag, growth rate) and the most influential parameters on the estimated risk of listeriosis in this scenario (maximum population density, bacterial competition). The mathematical properties of an exponential dose–response model for Listeria accounts for the fact that the mean number of bacteria per serving and, as a consequence, the highest achievable concentrations in the product under study, has a strong influence on the estimated expected number of listeriosis cases in this context.

Comparison of Ergonomic Risk Assessment Output in Four Sawmill Jobs

The objectives of this study were to examine the agreement between 5 ergonomic risk assessment methods calculated on the basis of quantitative exposure measures and to examine the ability of the methods to correctly classify 4 at risk jobs. Surface electromyography and electrogoniometry were used to record the physical exposures of 87 sawmill workers performing 4 repetitive jobs. Five ergonomic risk assessment tools (rapid upper limb assessment [RULA], rapid entire body assessment [REBA], American conference of governmental industrial hygienist’s threshold limit value for mono-task hand work [ACGIH TLV], strain index [SI], and concise exposure index [OCRA]) were calculated. Dichotomization of risk to no risk and at risk resulted in high agreement between methods. Percentage of perfect agreement between methods when 3 levels of risk were considered was moderate and varied by job. Of the methods examined, the RULA and SI were best (correct classification rates of 99 and 97% respectively). The quantitative ACGIH-TLV for mono-task hand work and Borg scale were worst (misclassification rates of 86 and 28% respectively).

Expert judgement and lethal toxicity of inhaled chemicals

The application of formal expert judgement for assessing quantitative data of the toxicity of large amounts of inhaled chemical substances after a potential major hazards incident is described. In this particular application, the expert assessments were used to derive probit relations for the acute lethal effects of five hazardous substances: ammonia, acrylonitrile, hydrogen fluoride, sulphur trioxide and azinphos-methyl. The purpose of the study was to develop a protocol for selecting experts and the elicitation and analysis of expert assessments, to apply this protocol to generate probit relations for representative substances, and to evaluate the overall performance of the protocol. The use of formal expert judgement includes quantitative estimates of variables, calibration of experts and representation of uncertainty on the variables. This enables analysts to optimize combined experts' assessments for establishing quantitative results for further use in probit relations. Twenty-seven experts, distributed over the five substances, gave medians and 90% central confidence bands of the lethal dose-response relations under several conditions. The calculated dose-response relations are shown and compared to existing probit relations with respect to its impact on risk assessment outputs. The calculated relations can be applied in quantitative risk assessments, for example, under the Dutch law on major hazards installations. The scientific and practical efforts and costs of using the expert judgement technique are described.