Climate Change Risk Assessment Research Articles

Research and policy priorities to address drought and irrigation water resource risks in temperate agriculture

Abstract Droughts are a major global natural hazard, creating negative environmental and socio-economic impacts across a broad spectrum of sectors. However, agriculture is often the first sector to be impacted due to prolonged rainfall shortages reducing available soil moisture reserves with negative consequences for both rainfed and irrigated food crop production and for livestock. In the UK, recent droughts in 2018 and 2022 have highlighted the vulnerability of the agricultural and horticultural sectors since most production is rainfed and entirely dependent on the capricious nature of summer rainfall. Surprisingly, despite recognition of the agronomic and economic risks, there remains a paucity of evidence on the multi-scalar impacts of drought, including the impacts on crop yields and quality, the financial implications for farming and the consequences for fresh produce supply chains. Drawing on published grey and science literature, this review provides a comprehensive synthesis of drought impacts on U.K. agriculture, including characterisation of the sensitivity of the main sub-sectors to different types of drought, a critique of the short-term coping responses and longer-term strategies and identification of the main knowledge gaps which need to be addressed through a concerted effort of research and development to inform future policies focussing on climate change risk assessment for agriculture. Although the review focuses predominantly on U.K. evidence, the insights and findings are relevant to understanding drought impacts and risk management strategies in other temperate and humid regions where agriculture is a fundamentally important component of the economy.

Climate change adaptation cycle for pilot projects development in small municipalities: The northwestern Italian regions case study

More than half of the European population live in small and medium size municipalities, where climate adaptation planning is an under-researched topic within the climate change field. Many constraints might hinder the implementation of adaptation pilot projects due to lack of economic, knowledge, and technical available resources. Local institutions find difficulties in building a coherent local adaptation planning and design processes with international and national frameworks. In this context, this article proposes a methodology based on the available international frameworks to support the small communities with the aim to implement adaptation pilot projects within different sectors. In doing so, this paper tests a climate change adaptation cycle for pilot projects development in small municipalities; the first in Italy for small municipalities under 20.000 inhabitants. The proposed methodology could lead local adaptation initiatives in climate change risk assessment by supporting the research communities in developing a coherent vision for the local territories and to identify proper oriented measures to enhance demonstrative pilot projects and to increase the level of resilience in small municipalities, avoiding maladaptation.

What's at stake? A human well-being based proposal for assessing risk of loss and damage from climate change

Current scientific discourse on the assessment of loss and damage from climate change focuses primarily on what is straightforwardly quantifiable, such as monetary value, numbers of casualties, or destroyed homes. However, the range of possible harms induced by climate change is much broader, particularly as regards residual risks that occur beyond limits to adaptation. In international climate policy, this has been institutionalized within the Loss and Damage discourse, which emphasizes the importance of non-economic loss and damage (NELD). Nevertheless, NELDs are often neglected in loss and damage assessments, being intangible and difficult to quantify. As a consequence, to date, no systematic concept or indicator framework exists that integrates market-based and non-market-based loss and damage. In this perspective, we suggest assessing risk of loss and damage using a climate change risk and vulnerability assessment (CRVA) framework: the Impact Chain method. This highly adaptable method has proven successful in unraveling complex risks in socio-ecological systems through a combination of engaging (political) stakeholders and performing quantitative data analysis. We suggest expanding the framework's logic to include not only the sources but also the consequences of risk by conceptualizing loss and damage as harm to nine domains of human well-being. Our approach is consistent with the risk conceptualization by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Conceptualization and systematic assessment of the full spectrum of imminent loss and damage allows a more comprehensive anticipation of potential impacts on human well-being, identifying vulnerable groups and providing essential evidence for transformative and comprehensive climate risk management.

National Climate Change Risk Assessments to inform adaptation policy priorities and environmental sustainability outcomes: a knowledge systems perspective

National Climate Change Risk Assessments (CCRAs) have a key role in informing priorities for adaptation policy but face significant challenges due to multiple facets of risk and adaptation. Issues are especially pronounced for meeting goals of environmental sustainability due to the complex dynamics of socio-ecological systems. In practice, a CCRA can therefore differ from its original conceptual blueprint. These challenges are explored from a knowledge systems perspective, focusing on the role of stakeholders/policymakers, risk descriptors, methods, evidence sources, and scientists. A UK case study evaluates recent developments (CCRA3) including identification of policy urgency through adaptation shortfalls and its application to the natural environment. Important science-policy issues are also highlighted regarding inclusion of opportunities, systemic risks, residual risks, and risk tolerance. A general conclusion is that CCRAs inevitably leave open questions which lead back to their evolving role in the science-policy interface. A knowledge systems perspective identifies CCRAs as open, adaptive, reflexive processes that help redefine interpretations of risk and adaptation, rather than just providing a specific policy-relevant product. This perspective identifies scope for progressive refinement of CCRAs to enhance collective science-policy adaptive capacity whilst also engaging wider society. For environmental sustainability, this open process can be used to iteratively redefine robust future pathways and system reference conditions that also better reflect evolving societal perceptions and tolerance on sustainability risk in the face of climate change.

Conducting Climate Change Risk Assessments for Companies: Lessons Learned

Abstract As the private sector becomes increasingly aware of the risks associated with climate change, climatologists have been engaging with companies to assess climate change risks and opportunities. Here, we outline how we have collaborated with a Fortune 500 company to assess the physical risks of climate change to their facilities. We provide a template for a climate change report card that we generated for >100 facilities globally. This report card is designed to communicate risk to company leadership and local facility managers. We believe that by sharing our experiences, climate scientists will be able to quantify and communicate climate risk more effectively to the private sector.

Connecting Risk Management Theory and Practice on the Frontline of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction: The Experience of the West Yorkshire Fire and Rescue Service in the United Kingdom

Risk management is fundamental to the pursuit of climate change adaptation, particularly in public sectors, through integrated cross-sectoral policies and government planning. This integration with Adaptation to Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction is a way of transforming policies into local actions. Climate emergencies are explored as a potential risk to one public sector, the Fire and Rescue Services, due to the increase in the frequency and intensity of climate-related incidents (floods and wildfires). The research assesses Britain's national policies on climate adaptation, which have developed significant environmental research and legislation since 1997: the Civil Contingencies Act (2004), Climate Change Act (2008), Climate Change Risk Assessment (2012) and periodically the National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. From interviews with West Yorkshire firefighters, integrated community risk management is critical for gathering quality-assured data to implement positive change in public sectors, consolidating Climate Change Adaptation and supporting Disaster Risk Reduction. Although multi-agency community engagement is suitable for understanding local vulnerabilities, the frequency of incidents dictates investments and limited resources are barriers for action.

Gendered exposure, vulnerability, and response: Malaria risk in a changing climate in Western Kenya

Climate change has been linked to increasing rates of malaria infection in Western Kenya. Projections show an increased risk of malaria infection under climate change scenarios, impacting vulnerable populations and placing millions of people at risk. Developing suitable risk management strategies requires understanding the hazard, exposure, vulnerability and response to climate change and malaria risk in the context of other local environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural factors (including gender) that influence exposure, vulnerability and capacity to cope. This paper draws upon two analytical frameworks, using data gathered from focus group discussions with small-scale farmers in Western Kenya: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Risk Assessment Framework; and Feminist Political Ecology (FPE) to analyze social constructions underpinning farming responsibilities and decision-making power and how these influence the gendered dimensions of exposure, vulnerability and response to climate change and malaria risk in the community. This paper finds that gender influences the risk of malaria through feminization of agricultural activities in the region, socially constructed gendered responsibilities for care and farm work, which increases exposure and vulnerability to mosquito bites and malaria infection, and socially constructed rights of women to make farming decisions and manage farm income, which influences their capacity to manage risk and cope in the long term. Drawing on these findings, this paper proposes that an intersectional gender lens needs to be incorporated into climate and malaria adaptation policy and programming. It concludes with recommendations for implementing the UNFCCC Enhanced Lima Work Program on Gender at the country levels and the development of gender-responsive climate change and malaria risk management.

Performance Evaluation of Bias Correction Methods and Projection of Future Precipitation Changes Using Regional Climate Model over Thanjavur, Tamil Nadu, India

The use of regional climate models in climate change risk assessments is uncertain because of the threat of biases. Prior to using simulations, some corrections must be made. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of simple and complex correction approaches on CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) precipitation datasets over Thanjavur in Tamil Nadu, India. The various bias correction approaches were assessed using the two-sample cross-validation technique, and the best method was chosen using statistical metrics such as the correlation coefficient, root mean square error, and percent bias for correcting the future scenario datasets. According to the findings, all methods significantly improved raw simulated estimations after correction. The Delta Change method was used to adjust the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios datasets for this study region because it produced good agreement (0.98) and low wet bias (1%) against observed precipitation. In addition, this study found that the annual mean precipitation projections showed an increase in precipitation intensity of between 4.2 and 6.8% under the RCP2.6 scenario and between 14 and 20.1% under the RCP8.5 scenario, compared to observed data (1976–2005). Furthermore, the analysis showed that most years in the twenty-first century will experience heavy precipitation, resulting in floods. This research has offered reliable knowledge about future precipitation to environmentalists, urban administrators, and policy-makers, enable them to make plausible strategies to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change.

Usable, but unused: A critical story of co-producing the UK’s Climate Change Risk Assessments

Non-use of climate information is often attributed to scientists failing to understand what decision-makers need. In response, co-production offers one promising method to improve the usability, and therein, use of climate information. Yet it remains unclear to what extent usability and use are linked, or if other factors influence the non-use of climate information. This paper critically examines two efforts to co-produce climate information for UK adaptation decision-making: the first and second cycles of the climate change risk assessment to gather evidence and then inform the national adaptation programme. To do this, a mixed methods approach was used: (i) textual analysis of official Government documents, and (ii) in-depth interviews with key actors. Our research found that the institutional-political context in which climate information is produced and used, played a significant role in defining who the user should be, how the data analysis was performed, and the extent to which that information was used. Just because something is co-produced does not mean it will be usable, nor does something that’s usable automatically mean it will be used. Unless new research seeks to better understand how the modes of production (linear vs. co-production) influence the use of climate information, who uses it, and how it’s used, questions will remain over whether the right barriers to climate inaction have been tackled.

Assessing Future Flood Risk and Developing Integrated Flood Risk Management Strategies: A Case Study from the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

As Earth’s climate changes, individual nations must develop adaptation plans to respond to increasing or new climate risks. This study focuses on changing flood risk in England, UK, and examines the policy framework and actions that underpin England’s adaptation from a flood risk management (FRM) perspective. Specifically, the flood risk projections that fed into the UK’s Climate Change Risk Assessment were analysed alongside newly developed FRM adaptation portfolios that modified the flood risk projections to identify the potential of different measures to reduce Expected Annual Damages (EAD). The key findings indicate that: the range of EAD for all flood sources combined is projected to increase by 18–160% by the 2080s depending on the climate change, population growth and adaptation assumptions applied; adopting an enhanced adaptation approach presents an opportunity to manage much of the climate driven change in flood risk, particularly from river flooding; EAD from coastal flood risk shows the greatest increase relative to present day; and surface water flooding will become an increasingly more significant source of flood risk. Interpretation of the results in the context of the policy framework shows how greater coordination and integration of risk managers and interventions is required to improve adaptation planning.

The Climate Science for Ecological Forecasting symposium

The Climate Science for Ecological Forecasting symposium

Threats of COVID-19 arouse public awareness of climate change risks

Public climate change awareness is indispensable to dealing with climate change threats. Understanding whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic impacts on individuals’ climate change risk perception would thus be critical to green economic recovery. We conducted a longitudinal survey study in China when the pandemic was at its height and when it was mitigated. The cross-lagged analysis confirmed our assumed “arousal” effect of perceived COVID-19 risks on climate change risk awareness. We further tested and verified the proposed “dual-pathway” mechanisms of affective generalization (i.e., negative affective states aroused by COVID-19 “spillover” to the assessment of climate change risk) and cognitive association (i.e., the outbreak of COVID-19 awakens people’s recognition of the human-nature-climate issues) via multiple mediation analyses. Our results implied that climate policies could be integrated into pandemic control, and that the public should be more awakened to confront multiple crises with proper guidance.

Weather Preferences for Ski Tourism: An Empirical Study on the Largest Ski Resort in Greece

Numerous studies have demonstrated the tourism industry to be especially sensitive to weather and climate variability. Snow-related tourism, being largely dependent on climatic resources, is particularly affected by climate change. Our study provides a new index to reflect the climatic suitability of a given destination for snow-related tourism activities, focusing on resorts with usually limited snowfall. The proposed Skiing Utility Index (SUI) is based purely on the weather preferences of skiers, extracted by questionnaires distributed at the Parnassos ski center (Greece). The index incorporates four different weather variables considered to be the most influential for this type of tourism. The ideal temperature for skiing was found to be close to 0 °C, the ideal wind speed between 0–3.3 m/s, the ideal cloud cover between 0–25% and the snowfall duration between 1–2 h, with the latter found to be the most important variable for skiing. For each climatic variable, a mean utility score profile was developed from all respondents. Following, a utility function was fitted via linear regression to the above-mentioned utility score. All four utility functions were aggregated into one total SUI score. When combined with climate projections, the SUI can support the assessment of climate change risks for snow-related tourism destinations.

Climate change risk assessment of heritage tourism sites within South African national parks

Climate change and variability are among the most critical threats facing heritage sites across the world. However, despite the threats posed by climate change and variability on heritage tourism sites, there are limited research and management interventions to help build the resilience of threatened sites. South African national parks are home to numerous heritage sites, including unique ecosystems, prehistoric ruins and rock art, which are still undocumented. This research assesses the risks imposed by climate change and variability on heritage sites within selected South African national parks. Assessing and prioritising risk is important to designing effective conservation and preservation strategies. The participatory Climate Vulnerability Index was used to assess climate vulnerability on three heritage sites within Kruger, Mapungubwe and Table Mountain national parks. The research developed and used a seven scale semi-quantitative risk analysis tool to rank and prioritise the identified climate related threats. Survey questionnaires were administered to park visitors to assess their perceptions of climate change impacts on heritage sites. Discussions with key informants were also done using in-depth interviews and focus groups. The results show that the vulnerability of heritage sites to climate change was high at all sites. Warming temperatures, drought and flooding intense rainfall are the main climatic stressors. A SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, and Timely) action list for the identified critical climate related risks was developed. To build future resilience, the paper recommends changes in how threatened tourism heritage sites are presented to visitors, improved funding for the documentation of the impacts of climate change on the heritage sites and developing anticipatory action to manage potential impacts.

Assessment of climate change risks and adaptation of improved farming practices in dekhar haor of sunamganj district

Flash flood is the most commonly occurring water related disaster in the haor area of Bangladesh. It’s occurs during the pre-monsoon season (March-April-May). The haor area is very susceptible to climatic risk and prone to early flash flood in consecutive year. In response, the government of Bangladesh has initiated a number of institutional interventions through development plans to better support sustainable adaptation. A study was carried out to assess the climate change risks and adaptation of indigenous farming practices of dekhar haor in Sunamganj district. Data were collected through direct interview from randomly selected 96 farmers, 4 Focus Group Discussion and 10 Key Informant Interviews during September 2019 to January 2020. It was found that the most potential climatic hazards of the study area were flash flood, thunderstorm, hailstorm and drought. The data related to agricultural adaptation strategies to climate change indicated that the majority (54.2%) farmers had medium adaptation and 45.8% low adaptation and no farmers were found with high adaptation. Climatic risks at different agricultural sectors such as crop protection, community protection, fisheries, livestock and risk of drought were assessed through comparative analysis of climatic hazards, vulnerability to climate change and adaptation capacity. Bangladesh J. Agri. 2022, 47(1): 39-65

Optimal Validated Multi-Factorial Climate Change Risk Assessment for Adaptation Planning and Evaluation of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Indonesia.

(1) Background: This paper will present an elaboration of the risk assessment methodology by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ), Eurac Research and United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) for the assessment of dengue. (2) Methods: We validate the risk assessment model by best-fitting it with the number of dengue cases per province using the least-square fitting method. Seven out of thirty-four provinces in Indonesia were chosen (North Sumatra, Jakarta Capital, West Java, Central Java, East Java, Bali and East Kalimantan). (3) Results: A risk assessment based on the number of dengue cases showed an increased risk in 2010, 2015 and 2016 in which the effects of El Nino and La Nina extreme climates occurred. North Sumatra, Bali, and West Java were more influenced by the vulnerability component, in line with their risk analysis that tends to be lower than the other provinces in 2010, 2015 and 2016 when El Nino and La Nina occurred. (4) Conclusion: Based on data from the last ten years, in Jakarta Capital, Central Java, East Java and East Kalimantan, dengue risks were mainly influenced by the climatic hazard component while North Sumatra, Bali and West Java were more influenced by the vulnerability component.

Improving Estimates of U.S. Tornado Frequency by Accounting for Unreported and Underrated Tornadoes

Abstract Many tornadoes are unreported because of lack of observers or are underrated in intensity, width, or track length because of lack of damage indicators. These reporting biases substantially degrade estimates of tornado frequency and thereby undermine important endeavors such as studies of climate impacts on tornadoes and cost–benefit analyses of tornado damage mitigation. Building on previous studies, we use a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to estimate and correct for tornado reporting biases over the central United States during 1975–2018. The reporting biases are treated as a univariate function of population density. We assess how these biases vary with tornado intensity, width, and track length and over the analysis period. We find that the frequencies of tornadoes of all kinds, but especially stronger or wider tornadoes, have been substantially underestimated. Most strikingly, the Bayesian model estimates that there have been approximately 3 times as many tornadoes capable of (E)F2+ damage as have been recorded as (E)F2+ [(E)F indicates a rating on the (enhanced) Fujita scale]. The model estimates that total tornado frequency changed little over the analysis period. Statistically significant trends in frequency are found for tornadoes within certain ranges of intensity, pathlength, and width, but it is unclear what proportion of these trends arise from changes in damage survey practices. Simple analyses of the tornado database corroborate many of the inferences from the Bayesian model. Significance Statement Prior studies have shown that the probabilities of a tornado being reported and of its intensity, track length, and width being accurately estimated are strongly correlated with the local population density. We have developed a sophisticated statistical model that accounts for these population-dependent tornado reporting biases to improve estimates of tornado frequency in the central United States. The bias-corrected tornado frequency estimates differ markedly from the official tornado climatology and have important implications for tornado risk assessment, damage mitigation, and studies of climate change impacts on tornado activity.

APPROACHING CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT – SOME CONSIDERATIONS

As one of the objectives of the CASCADE project is to carry out a cost-benefit analysis to enhance resilience, in order to develop the CCRA (Climate Change Risk Assessment) methodology, the guidelines include a capacity analysis. The ability to adapt to change or to respond in the event of a disaster, as well as the ability to recover from damage within a specified timeframe, are key elements of resilience. Because changes are inevitable, the investment in these three elements is necessary. This is due to the fact that disaster scenarios are uncertain and the question arises as to how to invest in risk reduction to reach a satisfactory goal. The proposal comprised by the CCRA guidelines is to use the game theory. Actually, this proposal is a part of game theory, namely Game with Nature where Nature is not interested in benefit and probability of Nature State in future is unknown. As there are many possibilities of Nature State a probability that a correct investment decision would be made is low. To a much greater extent the decision will be wrong or almost wrong in the case of an optimised decision. The only thing the decision maker can do is randomly select investments or apply the game theory to minimise his sense of loss.

A Methodological Proposal for the Climate Change Risk Assessment of Coastal Habitats Based on the Evaluation of Ecosystem Services: Lessons Learnt from the INTERREG Project ECO-SMART

Climate change is seriously impacting coastal biodiversity and the benefits it provides to humans. This issue is particularly relevant in the case of the European Union’s Natura 2000 network of areas for nature protection, where the sensitivity of local ecosystems calls for intervention to increase resistance and resilience to climate-related risks. Given the complex ways in which climate can influence conservation hotspot areas, there is a need to develop effective strategic approaches and general operational models to identify priorities for management and inform adaptation and mitigation measures. Here, a novel methodological proposal to perform climate risk assessment in Natura 2000 sites is presented that implements the systematic approach of ISO 14090 in combination with the theoretical framework of ecosystem services assessment and local stakeholder participation to identify climate-related issues for local protected habitats and improve the knowledge base needed to plan sustainable conservation and restoration measures. The methodology was applied to five Natura 2000 sites located along the Adriatic coast of Italy and Slovenia. Results show that each of the assessed sites, despite being along the coast of the same sea, is affected by different climate-related issues, impacting different habitats and corresponding ecosystem services. This novel methodology enables a simple and rapid screening for the prioritization of conservation actions and of the possible further investigations needed to support decision making, and was found to be robust and of general applicability. These findings highlight the importance of designing site-specific adaptation measures, tailored to address the peculiar response to climate change of each site in terms of biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Feature extraction and classification of climate change risks: a bibliometric analysis

Risks brought by climate change are inevitable obstacles to global development. Clarifying the features of climate change risks helps us to further understand and cope with climate change. There lacks a systematic review of climate change risks in terms of feature extraction and classification. The bibliometric analysis can be used to analyze and extract climate change risk features. The literature in the field of climate change was searched in the Web of Science database. Coauthors, citations, bibliographic coupling, co-citations, and keyword co-occurrence were analyzed. From five dimensions including nature, politics, economy, society, and culture, the risk features of climate change were extracted and summarized. Through text mining and cluster analysis, the climate change risk feature system was established, which is embodied in five different aspects: ecosystem and sustainability; uncertainty, vulnerability, and efficiency; behavior and decision-making; governance and management; and adaptation and mitigation. The feature system reflects that the current climate change risk presents strong variability and that the risk boundary is gradually blurred. The areas affected by risk are expanding and deepening. The strategies and governance for addressing risks are gradually diversified. This research contributes to the domain of climate change risk identification and assessment. The features of climate change indicate that we need to adjust policymaking and managerial practices for climate change in the future. Interdisciplinary cooperation, human cognition and preferences, public participation in global governance, and other unnatural factors related to climate change should be strengthened with a more positive attitude.