APPROACHING CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT – SOME CONSIDERATIONS

Abstract

As one of the objectives of the CASCADE project is to carry out a cost-benefit analysis to enhance resilience, in order to develop the CCRA (Climate Change Risk Assessment) methodology, the guidelines include a capacity analysis. The ability to adapt to change or to respond in the event of a disaster, as well as the ability to recover from damage within a specified timeframe, are key elements of resilience. Because changes are inevitable, the investment in these three elements is necessary. This is due to the fact that disaster scenarios are uncertain and the question arises as to how to invest in risk reduction to reach a satisfactory goal. The proposal comprised by the CCRA guidelines is to use the game theory. Actually, this proposal is a part of game theory, namely Game with Nature where Nature is not interested in benefit and probability of Nature State in future is unknown. As there are many possibilities of Nature State a probability that a correct investment decision would be made is low. To a much greater extent the decision will be wrong or almost wrong in the case of an optimised decision. The only thing the decision maker can do is randomly select investments or apply the game theory to minimise his sense of loss.