Rising Sea Surface Temperatures Research Articles

Numerieal prediction of storm surge in the Qingdao area under the impact of climate change

A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie (8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie (8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie (8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature (SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future (the end of the 21st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie (8509) was also estimated in this study.

Response of the atmosphere at high and middle latitudes to the reduction of sea ice area and the rise of sea surface temperature

The response of the polar atmosphere to the reduction of sea ice area in the Arctic and the rise of sea surface temperature is considered using the atmospheric general circulation model with prescribed boundary conditions on the ocean surface. Boundary conditions include the observed sea ice concentration and the sea surface temperature in recent three decades. The study demonstrates that the reduction of sea ice extent is the major factor contributing to the amplification of the warming in the Arctic. However, the spatiotemporal distribution of the warming is not uniform. It is mostly pronounced in autumn and winter and extends up to the height of about 1 km in the areas of large reduction of sea ice concentration or of its complete disappearance. It is demonstrated that the rise of the sea surface temperature also provides some contribution to the warming in the Arctic. Due to the global warming in recent decades statistically significant changes occurred in the distribution of the sea-level pres sure and geopotential heights in the polar region and at mid-latitudes in autumn, winter, and spring. However, these changes are mainly associated with the increase in the sea surface temperature but not with the reduction of sea ice extent. The study has not revealed any significant ret ationships between ice cover anomalies in the Arctic and the evolution of pressure patterns of the synoptic scale that could contribute to the development of cold weather episodes over Eurasia in winter.

Alterations in gill structure in tropical reef fishes as a result of elevated temperatures

Tropical regions are expected to be some of the most affected by rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) because seasonal temperature variations are minimal. As temperatures rise, less oxygen dissolves in water, but metabolic requirements of fish and thus, the demand for effective oxygen uptake, increase. Gill remodelling is an acclimation strategy well documented in freshwater cyprinids experiencing large seasonal variations in temperature and oxygen as well as an amphibious killifish upon air exposure. However, no study has investigated whether tropical reef fishes remodel their gills to allow for increased oxygen demands at elevated temperatures. We tested for gill remodelling in five coral reef species (Acanthochromis polyacanthus, Chromis atripectoralis, Pomacentrus moluccensis, Dascyllus melanurus and Cheilodipterus quinquelineatus) from populations in northern Papua New Guinea (2° 35.765′ S; 150° 46.193′ E). Fishes were acclimated for 12–14days to 29 and 31°C (representing their seasonal range) and 33 and 34°C to account for end-of-century predicted temperatures. We measured lamellar perimeter, cross-sectional area, base thickness, and length for five filaments on the 2nd gill arches and qualitatively assessed 3rd gill arches via scanning electron microscopy (SEM). All species exhibited significant differences in the quantitative measurements made on the lamellae, but no consistent trends with temperature were observed. SEM only revealed alterations in gill morphology in P. moluccensis. The overall lack of changes in gill morphology with increasing temperature suggests that these near-equatorial reef fishes may fail to maintain adequate O2 uptake under future climate scenarios unless other adaptive mechanisms are employed.

Emerging coral diseases: a temperature‐driven process?

AbstractIn the last few decades there has been a surge in research focusing on coral disease. While climate change, specifically rising sea surface temperature, has been proposed as a major and growing driver of the emergence of marine diseases, to date a solid connection between disease epizootics and elevated sea surface temperature has not been established. However, a wealth of data now exists, compiled from many different perspectives, that may support such a connection. In this work we provide a comprehensive review targeting one coral disease, black band disease, that spans the infection process, pathobiology, and epizootiology, and links specific mechanisms of the disease process to increasing temperatures. This temperature‐driven pattern of infection can be expanded to include similar processes associated with other temperature‐related coral diseases. The conclusions presented here are based upon the results of many studies using a diverse suite of approaches that have been synthesized to argue that the emergence and continuing spread of black band disease is linked to warming sea surface temperatures. In summary, as global ocean temperatures increase seasonally and over decades, the environment shifts to become more favorable for the growth of potentially pathogenic microorganisms endemic to the immediate environment of the reef. The increase in the relative number of potential pathogens in the microbial community produces microenvironments conducive to the growth of other potential pathogens, leading to infection by a polymicrobial consortium. This consortium is easily perturbed by a (seasonal) temperature decrease, but remains associated with the coral host and can be reactivated with a subsequent seasonal increase in temperature, resulting in a cycle of temperature‐dependent disease emergence.

Impact of the sea surface temperature rise on storm‐track clouds in global nonhydrostatic aqua planet simulations

AbstractAqua planet experiments were conducted to investigate storm‐track cloud change due to sea surface temperature (SST) rise. Fourteen kilometer mesh global nonhydrostatic model was employed with an explicit cloud microphysical process, and the model output data were composited to the cyclone center. Both the column‐integrated liquid and ice cloud contents are significantly increased around the cyclone center due to the SST rise. The occurrence of low‐level liquid clouds becomes more frequent not only near the cyclone center but also for all of the higher latitudes, which cannot be seen in low‐resolution models. This as well as thicker liquid clouds enhances shortwave cooling. Upper level ice clouds occur more frequently on the east side of the cyclone center, and they partly offset the enhanced shortwave cooling through longwave warming. These results may imply an importance of the cloud‐scale process with cloud microphysics on the storm‐track clouds and their radiative forcing.

Climate Change Trends and Its Impact on Tourism Resources in Mu Ko Surin Marine National Park, Thailand

The objective of this paper is to investigate the current and potential future impacts of climate change on tourism resources and tourism activities in Mu Ko Surin National Park. The research method for this paper involved the collection of information from interviews with key informants, non-participant observation, and secondary data. The results found that the park has experienced changes in climate, including increasing temperatures, changes in precipitation, rising sea surface temperature, and sea-level rise. The impact of increasing temperature can lead to mass coral bleaching. The beach was shown to have eroded at a rate of about 0.38 m per year. However, water resources are still sufficient for tourism activities. The impacts of climate change have led to coral reefs and fish being less attractive and reduced in quantity, some snorkeling and diving sites being closed. Therefore, for sustainable tourism management, adaptation action should take place in this area.

Incidence of lesions on Fungiidae corals in the eastern Red Sea is related to water temperature and coastal pollution

As sea surface temperatures rise and the global human population increases, large-scale field observations of marine organism health and water quality are increasingly necessary. We investigated the health of corals from the family Fungiidae using visual observations in relation to water quality and microbial biogeochemistry parameters along 1300 km of the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia. At large scales, incidence of lesions caused by unidentified etiology showed consistent signs, increasing significantly from the northern to southern coast and positively correlated to annual mean seawater temperatures. Lesion abundance also increased to a maximum of 96% near the populous city of Jeddah. The presence of lesioned corals in the region surrounding Jeddah was strongly correlated with elevated concentrations of ammonium and changes in microbial communities that are linked to decreased water quality. This study suggests that both high seawater temperatures and nutrient pollution may play an indirect role in the formation of lesions on corals.

Tropical cyclone cooling combats region‐wide coral bleaching

Coral bleaching has become more frequent and widespread as a result of rising sea surface temperature (SST). During a regional scale SST anomaly, reef exposure to thermal stress is patchy in part due to physical factors that reduce SST to provide thermal refuge. Tropical cyclones (TCs - hurricanes, typhoons) can induce temperature drops at spatial scales comparable to that of the SST anomaly itself. Such cyclone cooling can mitigate bleaching across broad areas when well-timed and appropriately located, yet the spatial and temporal prevalence of this phenomenon has not been quantified. Here, satellite SST and historical TC data are used to reconstruct cool wakes (n=46) across the Caribbean during two active TC seasons (2005 and 2010) where high thermal stress was widespread. Upon comparison of these datasets with thermal stress data from Coral Reef Watch and published accounts of bleaching, it is evident that TC cooling reduced thermal stress at a region-wide scale. The results show that during a mass bleaching event, TC cooling reduced thermal stress below critical levels to potentially mitigate bleaching at some reefs, and interrupted natural warming cycles to slow the build-up of thermal stress at others. Furthermore, reconstructed TC wave damage zones suggest that it was rare for more reef area to be damaged by waves than was cooled (only 12% of TCs). Extending the time series back to 1985 (n=314), we estimate that for the recent period of enhanced TC activity (1995-2010), the annual probability that cooling and thermal stress co-occur is as high as 31% at some reefs. Quantifying such probabilities across the other tropical regions where both coral reefs and TCs exist is vital for improving our understanding of how reef exposure to rising SSTs may vary, and contributes to a basis for targeting reef conservation.

Model finds bigger, stronger tropical cyclones with warming seas

In the wake of powerful tropical cyclones such as Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina and Typhoon Haiyan, questions about the likely effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity are on the public's mind. The interactions between global warming and cyclone activity, however, are complex, with rising sea surface temperatures, changing energy distributions, and altered atmospheric dynamics all having some effect.

Identification of MicroRNAs in the Coral Stylophora pistillata

Coral reefs are major contributors to marine biodiversity. However, they are in rapid decline due to global environmental changes such as rising sea surface temperatures, ocean acidification, and pollution. Genomic and transcriptomic analyses have broadened our understanding of coral biology, but a study of the microRNA (miRNA) repertoire of corals is missing. miRNAs constitute a class of small non-coding RNAs of ∼22 nt in size that play crucial roles in development, metabolism, and stress response in plants and animals alike. In this study, we examined the coral Stylophora pistillata for the presence of miRNAs and the corresponding core protein machinery required for their processing and function. Based on small RNA sequencing, we present evidence for 31 bona fide microRNAs, 5 of which (miR-100, miR-2022, miR-2023, miR-2030, and miR-2036) are conserved in other metazoans. Homologues of Argonaute, Piwi, Dicer, Drosha, Pasha, and HEN1 were identified in the transcriptome of S. pistillata based on strong sequence conservation with known RNAi proteins, with additional support derived from phylogenetic trees. Examination of putative miRNA gene targets indicates potential roles in development, metabolism, immunity, and biomineralisation for several of the microRNAs. Here, we present first evidence of a functional RNAi machinery and five conserved miRNAs in S. pistillata, implying that miRNAs play a role in organismal biology of scleractinian corals. Analysis of predicted miRNA target genes in S. pistillata suggests potential roles of miRNAs in symbiosis and coral calcification. Given the importance of miRNAs in regulating gene expression in other metazoans, further expression analyses of small non-coding RNAs in transcriptional studies of corals should be informative about miRNA-affected processes and pathways.

Projected coral bleaching in response to future sea surface temperature rises and the uncertainties among climate models

We quantitatively evaluated the effects of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on coral bleaching and the uncertainties resulting from differences in global warming projections. To do so, we used monthly SSTs in the twenty-first century obtained from 23 climate models under the A1B scenario (from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) and SST-based indices for coral bleaching. All of the projections indicated that severe bleaching or death of corals will be common and severe in wide areas of the tropical and subtropical oceans by the middle of this century. However, decadal oscillation could modify the exact timing by around ±10 years. Such projections are important for conserving marine biodiversity and designing future strategies to avoid tropical and subtropical coral extinction. To obtain more reliable projections and reduce uncertainties, climate models should be improved by using higher spatiotemporal resolutions, and more realistic biological indices should be embedded into existing models.

Dramatic Declines inEuphausia pacificaAbundance in the East China Sea: Response to Recent Regional Climate Change

As with other marine ecosystems around the world, water temperature has been anomalously warm in recent years in the East China Sea. We analyzed historical data to explore the effects of climatic change on the abundance and distribution variation of Euphausia pacifica in the East China Sea (the Changjiang River estuary and adjacent areas). In 1959, the highest abundance occurred in the spring and autumn, and this krill species was still abundant in May 1974; however, its abundance was significantly reduced in 2002, markedly in spring. Euphausia pacifica was the numerically dominant euphausiid in the East China Sea in 1959. Its mean abundance was up to 1.91 ind m(-3) and 1.64 ind/m(3) in 1959 and 1974, respectively; however, this figure decreased to 0.36 ind m(-3) in 2002. Since 2003, the abundances have been near zero in the most years. Both inter-annual (between November 1959 and 2002) and inter-monthly (between May and June 1959) comparisons suggest that E. pacifica has had a temperature-driven northward movement in response to rising sea surface temperature, especially the positive anomalies since 1997. However, E. pacifica did not come back to the previous habitat when temperature became relative cold. Hence additional factors affecting the E. pacifica distribution and abundance need to be investigated in the future study.

Climate change and Mediterranean seagrass meadows: a synopsis for environmental managers

This synopsis focuses on the effects of climate change on Mediterranean seagrasses, and associated communities, and on the contribution of the main species, Posidonia oceanica, to the mitigation of climate change effects through its role of sequestering carbon dioxide. Whilst the regression of seagrass meadows is well documented, generally linked to anthropogenic pressures, global warming could be a cause of new significant regressions, notably linked to the introduction of exotic species, the rise of Sea-Surface Temperature (SST), and relative sea level. Seagrass communities could also be affected by climate change through the replacement of seagrass species having high structural complexity by species of lower complexity and even by opportunistic introduced species. Although it is currently very difficult to predict the consequences of these alterations and their cascade effects, two main conflicting trends in the functioning of seagrass ecosystems that could occur are acceleration of the herbivore pathway or of the detritivore pathway. The mean net primary production of the dominant species, Posidonia oceanica, is relatively high and can be estimated to range between 92.5 to 144.7 g C m-2 a-1. Around 27% of the total carbon fixed by this species enters the sedimentary pathway leading to formation, over millennia, of highly organic deposits rich in refractory carbon. At the Mediterranean scale, the sequestration rate might reach 1.09 Tg C a-1. The amount of this stored carbon is estimated to range from 71 to 273 kg C m-2, which when considered at the Mediterranean scale would represent 11 to 42% of the CO2 emissions produced by Mediterranean countries since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The greatest value of the P. oceanica ecosystem, in the context of mitigation of global climate change, is linked to this vast long-term carbon stock accumulated over the millennia, and therefore, efforts should be focused on preserving the meadows to keep this reservoir intact.

Water mass evolution of the Greenland Sea since late glacial times

Abstract. Four sediment cores from the central and northern Greenland Sea basin, a crucial area for the renewal of North Atlantic deep water, were analyzed for planktic foraminiferal fauna, planktic and benthic stable oxygen and carbon isotopes as well as ice-rafted debris to reconstruct the environmental variability in the last 23 kyr. During the Last Glacial Maximum, the Greenland Sea was dominated by cold and sea-ice bearing surface water masses. Meltwater discharges from the surrounding ice sheets affected the area during the deglaciation, influencing the water mass circulation. During the Younger Dryas interval the last major freshwater event occurred in the region. The onset of the Holocene interglacial was marked by an increase in the advection of Atlantic Water and a rise in sea surface temperatures (SST). Although the thermal maximum was not reached simultaneously across the basin, benthic isotope data indicate that the rate of overturning circulation reached a maximum in the central Greenland Sea around 7 ka. After 6–5 ka a SST cooling and increasing sea-ice cover is noted. Conditions during this so-called "Neoglacial" cooling, however, changed after 3 ka, probably due to enhanced sea-ice expansion, which limited the deep convection. As a result, a well stratified upper water column amplified the warming of the subsurface waters in the central Greenland Sea, which were fed by increased inflow of Atlantic Water from the eastern Nordic Seas. Our data reveal that the Holocene oceanographic conditions in the Greenland Sea did not develop uniformly. These variations were a response to a complex interplay between the Atlantic and Polar water masses, the rate of sea-ice formation and melting and its effect on vertical convection intensity during times of Northern Hemisphere insolation changes.

Ocean acidification and climate change: advances in ecology and evolution

Atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] has increased from a pre-industrial level of approximately 280 ppm to approximately 385 ppm, with further increases (700–1000 ppm) anticipated by the end of the twenty-first century [[1][1]]. Over the past three decades, changes in [CO2] have increased global

Upper tropospheric warming intensifies sea surface warming

One of the robust features in the future projections made by the state-of-the-art climate models is that the highest warming rate occurs in the upper-troposphere especially in the tropics. It has been suggested that more warming in the upper-troposphere than the lower-troposphere should exert a dampening effect on the sea surface warming associated with the negative lapse rate feedback. This study, however, demonstrates that the tropical upper-tropospheric warming (UTW) tends to trap more moisture in the lower troposphere and weaken the surface wind speed, both contributing to reduce the upward surface latent heat flux so as to trigger the initial sea surface warming. We refer to this as a ‘top-down’ warming mechanism. The rise of tropospheric moisture together with the positive water vapor feedback enhance the downward longwave radiation to the surface and facilitate strengthening the initial sea surface warming. Meanwhile, the rise of sea surface temperature (SST) can feed back to intensify the initial UTW through the moist adiabatic adjustment, completing a positive UTW–SST warming feedback. The proposed ‘top-down’ warming mechanism and the associated positive UTW–SST warming feedback together affect the surface global warming rate and also have important implications for understanding the past and future changes of precipitation, clouds and atmospheric circulations.

Do Clouds Save the Great Barrier Reef? Satellite Imagery Elucidates the Cloud-SST Relationship at the Local Scale

Evidence of global climate change and rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is now well documented in the scientific literature. With corals already living close to their thermal maxima, increases in SSTs are of great concern for the survival of coral reefs. Cloud feedback processes may have the potential to constrain SSTs, serving to enforce an “ocean thermostat” and promoting the survival of coral reefs. In this study, it was hypothesized that cloud cover can affect summer SSTs in the tropics. Detailed direct and lagged relationships between cloud cover and SST across the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR) shelf were investigated using data from satellite imagery and in situ temperature and light loggers during two relatively hot summers (2005 and 2006) and two relatively cool summers (2007 and 2008). Across all study summers and shelf positions, SSTs exhibited distinct drops during periods of high cloud cover, and conversely, SST increases during periods of low cloud cover, with a three-day temporal lag between a change in cloud cover and a subsequent change in SST. Cloud cover alone was responsible for up to 32.1% of the variation in SSTs three days later. The relationship was strongest in both El Niño (2005) and La Niña (2008) study summers and at the inner-shelf position in those summers. SST effects on subsequent cloud cover were weaker and more variable among study summers, with rising SSTs explaining up to 21.6% of the increase in cloud cover three days later. This work quantifies the often observed cloud cooling effect on coral reefs. It highlights the importance of incorporating local-scale processes into bleaching forecasting models, and encourages the use of remote sensing imagery to value-add to coral bleaching field studies and to more accurately predict risks to coral reefs.

A 400-year record of hydroclimate variability and local ENSO history in northern Southeast Asia inferred from tree-ring δ18O

We present here a chronology of tree ring cellulose δ18O for the period 1588–2002 based on individual measurements of seven Fokienia hodginsii trees growing in northern Laos. Response function analysis of meteorological data revealed that this oxygen isotope chronology has a significant negative correlation with monsoon season precipitation, the water level of the Mekong River, and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Our reconstructed monsoon season PDSI, which accounts for 41.5% of PDSI variance, showed that wetter phases occurred during the periods AD 1660–1695 and AD 1705–1790, that the main drier periods were AD 1630–1660, AD 1900–1940, and AD 1954–2002, and that there has been a trend of decreasing moisture during the monsoon season over the last 200years. A reduction in monsoon activity can also be seen in various tree ring oxygen isotope records from the Himalaya, Tibet Plateau, and Southeast Asia. Rising sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean could be responsible for this reduction in the Asian summer monsoon. By combining proxies sensitive to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in northern Laos and Vietnam, we were able to reconstruct the annual multivariate ENSO index (MEI) and local ENSO event history, and so improve our understanding of long-term variations in ENSO and its influences on Southeast Asia.

Density banding in corals: barcodes of past and current climate change

The predicted sea surface temperature (SST) rise over the next decades is likely hazardous to coral health because precipitation of the calcareous skeleton depends primarily on SST. Temperature modulates vertical growth and density of the skeleton with seasonal SST changes resulting in an alternation of high-density and low-density bands (HDB and LDB). Notably, growth rates and the timing of the HDBs and LDBs relative to the seasons differ on a global scale within geographic regions. In this contribution, we use combined information of skeletal density and seasonally resolved oxygen isotope SST estimates from massive Porites from a Late Miocene (9 Ma) reef in the eastern Mediterranean Sea (Crete, Greece) to understand reef vulnerability over short and geological periods of time. Three types of HDB–SST relationships have been found: (1) coincidence of HDB with summer, (2) winter or (3) autumn and spring. The latter doubles HDBs in a year and implies maximum calcification is coupled to the taxon-specific optimum SST during the transitional seasons and reduced at its respective critical winter and summer SSTs. Modeling with a nonlinear temperature–calcification relationship reproduces the climate barcode of density bands. The model should be relevant for other poikilothermic carbonate producers in reefs and platforms and has implications for judging geographic distributions and causes of extinctions of corals, benthic carbonate communities and entire carbonate systems. With regard to the causes underlying expansion and demise of carbonate platforms and reefs in geological history, we expect the model predictions to help for a deeper understanding of biotic responses during hyperthermals or coolings and possibly also for identifying regions in the modern ocean where corals are endangered or taking advantage of global warming.

Can marine cloud brightening reduce coral bleaching?

AbstractIncreases in coral bleaching events over the last few decades have been largely caused by rising sea surface temperatures (SST), and continued warming is expected to cause even greater increases through this century. We use a Global Climate Model to examine the potential of marine cloud brightening (MCB) to cool oceanic surface waters in three coral reef provinces. Our simulations indicate that under doubled CO2 conditions, the substantial increases in coral bleaching conditions from current values in three reef regions (Caribbean, French Polynesia, and the Great Barrier Reef) were eliminated when MCB was applied, which reduced the SSTs at these sites roughly to their original values.