Relative Sea-level Rise Research Articles

Sea level rise and the drivers of daily water levels in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Water levels in deltas and estuaries vary on multiple timescales due to coastal, hydrologic, meteorologic, geologic, and anthropogenic factors. These diverse factors increase the uncertainty of, and may bias, relative sea level rise (RSLR) estimates. Here, we evaluate RSLR in San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, USA by applying a physics-based, nonlinear regression to 50 tide gauges that determines the spatially varying controls on daily mean water level for water years 2004–2022. Results show that elevated river flow and pumping (99th percentile) raise water level up to 6 m and lower it up to 0.35 m, respectively, and coastal water level variations are attenuated by 30-60% within the Delta. Strong westerly winds raise water level up to 0.17 m, and tidal-fluvial interaction during spring tides and low discharge raises water level up to 0.15 m. Removal of these interfering factors greatly improves RSLR estimates, narrowing 95% confidence intervals by 89–99% and removing bias due to recent drought. Results show that RSLR is spatially heterogeneous, with rates ranging from − 2.8 to 12.9 mm y-1 (95% uncertainties < 1 mm y-1). RSLR also exceeds coastal SLR of 3.3 mm y-1 in San Francisco at 85% of stations. Thus, RSLR in the Delta is strongly influenced by local vertical land motion and will likely produce significantly different, location-dependent future flood risk trajectories.

Causes of accelerated High-Tide Flooding in the U.S. since 1950

The U.S. coastlines have experienced rapid increases in occurrences of High Tide Flooding (HTF) during recent decades. While it is generally accepted that relative mean sea level (RMSL) rise is the dominant cause for this, an attribution to individual components is still lacking. Here, we use local sea-level budgets to attribute past changes in HTF days to RMSL and its individual contributions. We find that while RMSL rise generally explains > 84% of long-term increases in HTF days locally, spatial patterns in HTF changes also depend on differences in flooding thresholds and water level characteristics. Vertical land motion dominates long-term increases in HTF, particularly in the northeast, while sterodynamic sea level (SDSL) is most important elsewhere and on shorter temporal scales. We also show that the recent SDSL acceleration in the Gulf of Mexico has led to an increase of 220% in the frequency of HTF events over the last decade.

Growth of the sandy isthmus of tyre and ensuing relocation of its harbors

The renowned Phoenician city of Tyre was settled on a small coastal island from which it resisted invasions and sieges for centuries. In 332 BCE, the city was taken when Alexander-the-Great built a 750 m-long causeway to seize the island. The causeway interrupted longshore sediment transport, forcing sand to accumulate along the causeway, creating a isthmus that today still connects the island to the mainland. This isthmus is no less than 530 m wide and 13 m high. We studied the impact of isthmus growth on city development during Antiquity, by combining archeological data, core stratigraphy, and multibeam bathymetry to track the paleogeographic evolution of the land-facing coast of Tyre, from the Holocene marine transgression up to today. In Phoenician time (900-300 BCE), sea-level markers indicate that relative sea level lied more than 2.5 m below current sea level, defining a 1500 × 600 m rocky island, 450 m longer in the south than the modern rocky headland. Between the island and the mainland, diffracted/refracted waves built a submerged sand bank that rests on eroded transgressive lagoonal clays. Along the mainland-facing coast of Tyre Island, Phoenician walls were built on the emerged end of the sand bank. Middle infrared spectroscopy (MIRS) shows that the sand of the bank and its successor isthmus is made of carbonate clasts (90–100%). 36Sr/37Sr ratios further indicate that these are modern bioclastic sands. Coeval, heterogeneous clay-rich sediments were deposited between the rocky island, and the sand bank. We interpret these as harbor sediments, deposited behind buried and/or submerged Phoenician breakwaters. The sand bank inflated dramatically after the building of Alexander's causeway, rising 5 m during the Hellenistic and Roman periods. It rose another 4 m–8 m in successive stages during Byzantine and Medieval times, up to the 19th century. The rapid growth of the sandy isthmus after 332 BCE led to the demise and burial of the harbors that had been developed along the mainland-facing coast. The Phoenician southern harbor of Tyre appears to have been buried in Roman times during the repurposing of the SE corner of the island for monumental baths. We interpret this repurposing as a response to the growth of the sandy isthmus, and suggest that the northern Phoenician harbor was then relocated to its present position. Subsequent relative sea level rise led to the erosion of the landfill overlying the southern harbor, exposing the formerly buried port on the seafloor.

Global distribution and dynamics of muddy coasts

Muddy coasts provide ecological habitats, supply food and form a natural coastal defence. Relative sea level rise, changing wave energy and human interventions will increase the pressure on muddy coastal zones. For sustainable coastal management it is key to obtain information on the geomorphology of and historical changes along muddy areas. So far, little is known about the distribution and behaviour of muddy coasts at a global scale. In this study we present a global scale assessment of the occurrence of muddy coasts and rates of coastline change therein. We combine publicly available satellite imagery and coastal geospatial datasets, to train an automated classification method to identify muddy coasts. We find that 14% of the world’s ice-free coastline is muddy, of which 60% is located in the tropics. Furthermore, the majority of the world’s muddy coasts are eroding at rates exceeding 1 m/yr over the last three decades.

A ∼200-year relative sea-level reconstruction from the Wellington region (New Zealand) reveals insights into vertical land movement trends

The sea-level rise threat to New Zealand's coastal cities is regionally exacerbated due to spatially varying vertical land movement (VLM). At Wellington, the capital city, situated adjacent to a major active plate boundary, strong regional spatial and temporal variability of VLM is indicated by the relatively short (∼25 year-long) continuous Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) network, but until now longer records of VLM have been lacking. Here, a ∼ 200-year-long relative sea-level reconstruction is presented from Pāuatahanui salt marsh in the northern Wellington region. The foraminifera-based relative sea-level reconstruction indicates that ∼1 ± 0.45 m of sudden uplift occurred during the 1855CE Mw 8.2 Wairarapa earthquake. Following this, Pāuatahanui has experienced a mean rate of relative sea-level rise (1855CE to present) of 1.5 ± 0.6 mm/yr, or 2.4 ± 0.8 mm/yr since the start of the twentieth century, consistent with ongoing subsidence in concert with climate-driven sea-level rise. Further acceleration to >3 mm/yr since the 1990s (with 4 mm/yr also possible if the full 95% confidence range is taken into consideration) is consistent with the globally documented acceleration in sea-level rise, although low model precision hampers confidence in this interpretation. This record is the first of its kind from a tectonically complex setting in New Zealand, shedding light on the effects of the historically significant 1855 earthquake, and fills a gap between millennial-scale and contemporary records of VLM with important implications for future sea-level projections in the region.

The accumulation and carbon sequestration potential of biogenic silica in coastal salt marshes: Implications for relative sea-level rise

The fate of soil biogenic silica (BSi) in coastal salt marshes is of global importance because of its role in providing both available silicon (Si) for the growth of plants and diatoms and in sequestering carbon (C) (blue C) in soils and sediments. However, the accumulation of BSi and BSi-occluded C (BSiOC) under different vegetation habitats in coastal ecosystems, particularly in response to relative sea‐level rise (RSLR), remains poorly understood. Here we established a paired waterlogging-control system and collected the soil samples under both waterlogged and non-waterlogged conditions from three vegetation habitats (single Phragmites australis, a mixture of P. australis and Suaeda salsa, and single S. salsa) corresponding to a gradient of distance from the coastline in three independent salt marshes. Our findings indicated that RSLR decreased average BSi content, especially in the 0–20 cm soil layer of the single P. australis and the mixed P. australis and S. salsa community. Although RSLR increased soil organic C (SOC) content, it generally decreased soil BSiOC content and its contribution to SOC. Consequently, RSLR resulted in lower soil BSi and BSiOC densities, particularly in the salt marsh dominated by the Si accumulator P. australis. Here, BSi and BSiOC densities at depths of 0–80 cm decreased by an average of 19% and 18% following waterlogging, respectively. The BSi pool was dominated by phytoliths in non-waterlogged soils, while both diatoms and phytoliths were present in soils subjected to RSLR. Soil physicochemical properties including SOC, electrical conductivity and dissolved Si were influenced by RSLR. These factors, along with erosion were suggested as key influencers for BSi and its C sequestration in coastal salt marshes. Our results provide a scientific basis for elucidating biogeochemical Si cycles and predicting changes in BSiOC sequestration to optimize its storage.

Mapping the vulnerability of groundwater to saltwater intrusion from estuarine rivers under sea level rise

Surface water bodies connected to the ocean such as estuarine rivers can act as pathways for saltwater intrusion (SI, i.e., the displacement of fresh groundwater by saltwater in an aquifer) far inland of the coast, presenting one of the earliest risks associated with relative sea level rise (SLR). However, SI vulnerability mapping approaches have largely focused on SI from the coast and do not consider estuarine surface water bodies, except for GALDIT–SUSI (Kazakis et al., 2019); a weighted indexing approach designed for regional-scale mapping applications using a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework. However, GALDIT-SUSI is subjective in ranking the importance of factors that can contribute to SI and combining these into a vulnerability index. A less subjective approach to assessing SI vulnerability than weighted indexing methods involves the use of physically-based analytic solutions such as Strack (1976), but these have not been applied in a GIS framework or along estuaries and rivers previously. Here, these analytic solutions, surface water salinity, and surface water-groundwater freshwater head gradients are used in the development of a new SI vulnerability tier system. This new approach was applied in the low-lying coastal city of Ōtautahi Christchurch, Aotearoa New Zealand, along 70 km of coastal, estuary, and river margins under current sea level and SLR using GIS, then compared to GALDIT–SUSI. The main advantage of the SI vulnerability tiers method is that it considers surface water behaviour, e.g., increased saltwater encroachment up rivers under SLR, which exposed new areas of the aquifer to saltwater and increased SI vulnerability upstream. In contrast, GALDIT-SUSI does not consider surface water conditions and accounts for topography and groundwater level as the main SI vulnerability drivers in this application. The SI vulnerability tiers proposed here are more theoretically robust than GALDIT-SUSI and provide a physically-based, large-scale, relatively low-budget and rapid screening tool to highlight areas most vulnerable to SI under current and future conditions for further monitoring and management; a gap of national and international relevance.

Aptian major changes in accommodation. New sedimentary evidence from the Maestrat Basin (E Iberia)

Global sea-level fluctuations with amplitudes of tens of metres and durations between 0.5 and 3 Myr are well-known oceanographic events of the Cretaceous Period. During recent years, major Cretaceous changes in accommodation recorded in different basins have been mainly interpreted as eustatically driven. Two episodes of major relative sea-level fall and rise of late early and early late Aptian age were investigated in the Maestrat Basin (E Iberian Peninsula). Previously documented in eight outcrops, these Aptian records of major changes in accommodation have now been identified in five additional localities within the basin, suggesting at least a basin-wide significance of these relative sea-level fluctuations. The records of relative sea-level fall analysed are associated with the local development of incised valleys and forced regressive wedges. Two upper lower Aptian incised valleys, which are downcutting highstand platform carbonates dominated by rudists and corals, were studied and show depths of approximately 10 and 80 m. The incision depths measured indicate amplitudes of relative sea-level variations in the order of tens of metres. During subsequent base-level rise, the lower part of these incised valleys was respectively infilled with orbitolinid limestones and high-energy carbonate deposits influenced by tides. Further evidence of major relative sea-level drop and rise during the late early Aptian includes a detached backstepping carbonate platform of reduced extension, underlain and overlain by basinal marly deposits, which flourished basinwards of a highstand platform margin. Although incised valleys or smaller-scale incisions are local features, evidence for relative declines in sea level can be identified from other evidence. For example, by the development of palaeokarst or by the presence of sharp or slightly erosive stratigraphic surfaces covered by deposits of higher energy influenced by tides, as observed in the late Aptian examples investigated herein. Comparable Aptian sedimentary features of subaerial exposure and subsequent transgressive genetic types of deposits have been observed in other basins across different tectonic plates, indicating that eustasy likely played a role in controlling accommodation changes during this stage. The discovery of new evidence for major relative Aptian sea-level fluctuations in various outcrops within the Maestrat Basin calls for further investigation in other underexplored Aptian platform carbonate successions in this basin. These investigations would contribute to a more accurate understanding of oceanographic dynamics during the Aptian Stage along the western margin of the Alpine Tethys.

Marsh migration and beyond: A scalable framework to assess tidal wetland resilience and support strategic management

Tidal wetlands are critical but highly threatened ecosystems that provide vital services. Efficient stewardship of tidal wetlands requires robust comparative assessments of different marshes to understand their resilience to stressors, particularly in the face of relative sea level rise. Existing assessment frameworks aim to address tidal marsh resilience, but many are either too localized or too general, and few directly translate resilience evaluations to recommendations for management strategies. In response to the deficiencies in existing frameworks, we identified a set of metrics that influence overall marsh resilience that can be assessed at any spatial scale. We then developed a new comprehensive assessment framework to rank relative marsh resilience using these metrics, which are nested within three categories. We represent resilience as the sum of results across the three metric categories: current condition, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability. Users of this framework can add scores from each category to generate a total resilience score to compare across marshes or take the score from each category and refer to recommended management actions we developed based on expert elicitation for each combination of category results. We then applied the framework across the contiguous United States using publicly available data, and summarized results at multiple spatial scales, from regions to coastal states to National Estuarine Research Reserves to finer scale marsh units, to demonstrate the framework’s value across these scales. Our national analysis allowed for comparison of tidal marsh resilience across geographies, which is valuable for determining where to prioritize management actions for desired future marsh conditions. In combination, the assessment framework and recommended management actions function as a broadly applicable decision-support tool that will enable resource managers to evaluate tidal marshes and select appropriate strategies for conservation, restoration, and other stewardship goals.

Sediment Compaction in Experimental Deltas: Toward a Meso‐Scale Understanding of Coastal Subsidence Patterns

AbstractWe present the first investigation of subsidence due to sediment compaction and consolidation in two laboratory‐scale river delta experiments. Spatial and temporal trends in subsidence rates in the experimental setting may elucidate behavior which cannot be directly observed at sufficiently long timescales, except for in reduced scale models such as the ones studied. We compare subsidence between a control experiment using steady boundary conditions, and an otherwise identical experiment which has been treated with a proxy for highly compressible marsh deposits. Both experiments have non‐negligible compactional subsidence rates across the delta‐top, comparable in magnitude to our boundary condition relative sea level rise rate of 250 μm/hr. Subsidence in the control experiment (on average 54 μm/hr) is concentrated in the lowest elevation (&lt;10 mm above sea level) areas near the coast and is likely related to creep induced by a rising water table near the shoreface. The treatment experiment exhibits larger (on average 126 μm/hr) and more spatially variable subsidence rates controlled mostly by compaction of recent marsh deposits within one channel depth (∼10 mm) of the sediment surface. These rates compare favorably with field and modeling based subsidence measurements both in relative magnitude and location. We find that subsidence “hot spots” may be relatively ephemeral on longer timescales, but average subsidence across the entire delta can be variable even at our shortest measurement window. This suggests that subsidence rates over a short time frame may exceed thresholds for marsh platform drowning, even if the long term trend does not.

Dairy farming exposure and impacts from coastal flooding and sea level rise in Aotearoa-New Zealand

Globally, episodic coastal flooding is expected to have increasingly severe impacts on agriculture in low-lying coastal areas, as climate change continues to cause relative sea level rise (RSLR). This study analyses dairy farm exposure and impacts from extreme sea levels (ESL) and RSLR in Aotearoa-New Zealand (A-NZ). Spatio-temporal modelling is undertaken using: 1) a dairy production land layer; 2) a static coastal inundation model from 10, 100, 200 and 500-year annual recurrence interval (ARI) ESL events at 0–2 m RSLR (0.5 m increments); and 3) an Impact State (IS) scheme relating percentage of farmland inundated and depth of flooding at milking shed locations to categorise the severity of damage. Through this analysis we highlight the increasing exposure of the dairy industry to coastal flooding, with 472 farms potentially impacted (at or greater than IS 1) by a 10-year ARI event and 1276 farms exposed to a 500-year ARI event at current sea levels, rising to 1276 (10-year ARI) and 1344 farms (500-year ARI) with 2 m RSLR. RSLR is identified as the factor driving this increase in exposure and severity of impacts to dairying, with the increase in the number of farms impacted in a 500-year compared to 10-year event only 5 % greater when considered with 1 m of RSLR, compared to 37 % greater at 0 m RSLR. This has significant implications for A-NZ where the dairy industry is of high economic and social importance, demonstrating the need for industry targeted climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction measures.

The SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 webGIS: The Online Platform for Relative Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Scenarios up to 2100 for the Mediterranean Coasts

Here we show the SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 web-based geographic information system (webGIS) that supports land planners and decision makers in considering the ongoing impacts of Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) when formulating and prioritizing climate-resilient adaptive pathways for the Mediterranean coasts. The webGIS was developed within the framework of the SAVEMEDCOASTS and SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 projects, funded by the European Union, which respond to the need to protect people and assets from natural disasters along the Mediterranean coasts that are vulnerable to the combined effects of Sea Level Rise (SLR) and Vertical Land Movements (VLM). The geospatial data include available or new high-resolution Digital Terrain Models (DTM), bathymetric data, rates of VLM, and multi-temporal coastal flooding scenarios for 2030, 2050, and 2100 with respect to 2021, as a consequence of RSLR. The scenarios are derived from the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and encompass different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for climate projections. The webGIS reports RSLR scenarios that incorporate the temporary contribution of both the highest astronomical tides (HAT) and storm surges (SS), which intensify risks to the coastal infrastructure, local community, and environment.

Contributors to tidal duration asymmetry with varied coastline configurations on western shelf of Yellow Sea

Coastal management in China is confronted with an urgent choice between natural restoration and maintenance of existing seawalls and reclaimed land for economic development. A key criterion for making this decision is the resilience to coastal flooding, which depends on the ability to predict tidal level. Tidal duration asymmetry (TDA) is a key parameter in determination of the arrival and duration of flood tides. This study selected the western inner shelf of the Yellow Sea (WYS) as the study area and investigated the responses of TDA to different shoreline configurations and relative sea level rise. The responses of TDA to shoreline reconstruction yielded spatial variability locally and remotely. In the nearshore area, the responses of TDA to the complex ocean environment mainly originated from the combined functions of reflection, bottom friction, and advection, which controlled the energy transfer from M2 or S2 constituents to their overtides or compound tides. The sensitivity of TDA to coastline typologies was not limited to coastal waters but could stretch over the entire inner shelf. The vulnerability of tidal responses was due to the displacement of the M2 amphidrome of the Kelvin wave on the WYS, which in turn changed tidal energy fluxes over the regime. The relative sea level rise could intensify the feedback of TDA to seawalls and land reclamation.

Early–mid Holocene relative sea-level rise in the Yangtze River Delta, China

Regional-scale Holocene sea-level reconstruction is the key to understanding natural climatic variability. The tidal flat, salt marsh, and tidal floodplain in the Yangtze River Delta were very sensitive to morphological changes and sea-level variation during the early Holocene. In this study, the lithology, radiocarbon ages, sediment grain size, benthic foraminifera, and ostracods of three new cores were analyzed. Twenty-four sea-level index points were extracted from incised-valley fills beneath the westernmost part of the Yangtze River Delta and used to construct a detailed relative sea-level curve for 11.03–7.25 ka. The relative sea level were − 38.90 ± 3.48 and 1.59 ± 3.28 m at 11.03 and 7.25 ka, respectively, and the average rate of sea-level rise was 10.71 mm/yr. The relative sea level gradually increased at 11.03–10.10 and 9.29–8.33 ka from 4.80 to 13.30 and 3.19 to 19.59 mm/yr, respectively. The rate of relative sea-level rise gradually decreased from 19.59 mm/yr at 8.33 ka to 13.40 mm/yr at 7.82 ka and further decreased to 5.53 mm/yr at 7.25 ka. The Yangtze River Delta recorded accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise from 8.72 to 8.18 ka of 14.2–19.59 mm/yr, corresponding to the pre-8.2 ka event. A comparison of the sea-level histories of the Yangtze River Delta and other regions indicates tectonics, glacial isostatic adjustment, and coastal levering effects caused by the marine inundation of the continental shelves. These new sea-level data contribute to the understanding of the difference in the sea-level rise rate during the early–mid Holocene.

Relative Sea-Level Rise Projections and Flooding Scenarios for 2150 CE for the Island of Ustica (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy)

The island of Ustica (Italy) is constantly exposed to the effects of sea-level rise, which is threatening its coastal zone. With the aim of assessing the sea levels that are anticipated by 2150 CE under the climatic projections shown in the AR6 report from the IPCC, a detailed evaluation of potential coastal flooding under different climatic scenarios and the ongoing land subsidence has been carried out for three coastal zones. Scenarios are based on the determination of the current coastline position, a high-resolution digital terrain and marine model, and the SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climatic projections. Relative sea-level rise projections allowed the mapping of the potential inundated surfaces for 2030, 2050, 2100, and 2150. The results show rising sea levels for 2150, ranging from a minimum of 66 ± 40 cm (IPCC AR6 SSP2.6 scenario) to a maximum of 128 ± 52 cm (IPCC AR6 SSP8.5 scenario). In such conditions, considering the SSP8.5 scenario during storm surges with return times (RTs) of 1 and 100 years, the expected maximum wave run-up along the island may vary from 3 m (RT = 1) to 14 m (RT = 100), according to the coastal morphology. Our results show that adaptation and mitigation actions are required to protect the touristic and harbor installations of the island.

The Multi-Channel System of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Impacts on the Flow Dynamics under Relative Sea-Level Rise Scenarios

The Mekong Delta has the world’s third-largest surface area. It plays an indisputable role in the economy and livelihoods of Vietnam and Cambodia, with repercussions at regional and global scales. During recent decades, the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta underwent profound human interventions (construction of dykes and multi-channel networks), which modified the hydrodynamic regime, especially cycles of field submersion. In this study, we first applied a full 2D numerical hydraulic model, TELEMAC-2D, to examine the effects of the complex channel and river networks on the spatial and temporal distribution of the flow in the 40,000 km2 of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Then, two scenarios of relative sea-level rise in 2050 and 2100 were implemented to simulate the future patterns of water fluxes in the delta. The results show that dykes and multi-channel networks would reduce the inundation area by 36% and lessen the peak water level by 15% and the discharge over the floodplains by 24%. Despite this protection, under a relative sea-level rise of 30 cm and 100 cm, the maximum flooded area could occupy about 69% and 85% of the whole delta in 2050 and 2100, respectively.

People and coastal ecosystems adapt to relative sea-level rise

People and coastal ecosystems adapt to relative sea-level rise

Localized uplift, widespread subsidence, and implications for sea level rise in the NewYork City metropolitan area.

Regional relative sea level rise is exacerbating flooding hazards in the coastal zone. In addition to changes in the ocean, vertical land motion (VLM) is a driver of spatial variation in sea level change that can either diminish or enhance flood risk. Here, we apply state-of-the-art interferometric synthetic aperture radar and global navigation satellite system time series analysis to estimate velocities and corresponding uncertainties at 30-m resolution in the NewYork City metropolitan area, revealing VLM with unprecedented detail. We find broad subsidence of 1.6 mm/year, consistent with glacial isostatic adjustment to the melting of the former ice sheets, and previously undocumented hot spots of both subsidence and uplift that can be physically explained in some locations. Our results inform ongoing efforts to adapt to sea level rise and reveal points of VLM that motivate both future scientific investigations into surface geology and assessments of engineering projects.

Upper Plate Faults May Contribute to the Paleoseismic Subsidence Record Along the Central Hikurangi Subduction Zone, Aotearoa New Zealand

AbstractEarthquake‐driven subsidence can cause cascading hazards at the coast by exacerbating relative sea level rise, storm surges, tsunami, and tidal flooding. At Ahuriri Lagoon near Napier, Aotearoa New Zealand, paleoseismic uplift and subsidence are typically attributed to upper plate faults and subduction interface earthquakes, respectively. We test this assumption with elastic dislocation models of upper plate and subduction interface earthquakes informed by historical events, seismic surveys, and modern interface coupling data. We compared our surface deformation results to paleoseismic records preserved at Ahuriri Lagoon, which includes eight rapid subsidence (c. 0.5–1.2 m) and two rapid uplift events over the last c. 7 kyr. Our models demonstrate that offshore upper plate faults could cause subsidence of c. 0.5–1 m at Ahuriri Lagoon at recurrence intervals of c. 2 kyr. A range of subduction interface earthquakes can also produce subsidence at Ahuriri Lagoon, and may explain larger (&gt;1 m) subsidence, but must rupture the currently creeping (i.e., aseismic) portions of the interface. We demonstrate that both upper plate fault and subduction interface earthquakes may have contributed to the Ahuriri Lagoon records, and that interface coupling may be more spatially or temporally heterogeneous than modern geodetic data suggest. Models of sea‐level rise and earthquake multi‐hazards that do not include the effects of upper plate faulting may mischaracterize risk at the coast.

Coastal response to Holocene Sea-level change: A case study from Singapore

The deceleration of early to mid-Holocene (10–7 cal. ka BP) relative sea-level rise (RSLR) played a key role in transforming coastal systems from estuaries to deltas. Palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of coastal evolution provide case studies that can help project the response of modern coastal systems to future RSLR. The response of deltas to future RSLR is particularly important to South, Southeast and East Asia which collectively contain 71% of the global coastal population living below 10 m in elevation and 75% of the global coastal floodplain population. However, few Holocene studies of equatorial delta systems exist.Here, we investigate the early to mid-Holocene coastal response to decelerating rates of RSLR through paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the Kallang River Basin, Singapore. We produce a multi-proxy (sedimentology, stable carbon isotope, XRF elemental ratios) record from sediment core MSBH01B to compare with the Holocene relative sea-level record for Singapore. We identify different phases of coastal response through the interplay between accommodation space (A) driven predominantly by RSLR and sedimentation rate (S).In the early Holocene rapid RSLR coupled with low sedimentation rates (A/S = 5.1 ± 0.3) led to mangrove disappearance in the Kallang River Basin coastal area within ∼300 years (9.5–9.2 cal. ka BP). Estuarine sediments were deposited from 9.2 to 8.8 cal. ka BP during continued high rates of RSLR coupled with highest sedimentation rates (A/S = 3.1 ± 0.8) as the coastline retreated. Prodelta sediments were deposited from 8.8 to 8.2 cal. ka BP during decreasing rate of RSLR and high sedimentation rates (A/S = 4.6 ± 5.2). Delta front sediments were deposited during this delta initiation phase from 8.2 to 7.6 cal. ka BP as during a period of low and consistent RSLR and sedimentation rates (A/S = 1.7 ± 0.2). Finally, a prograding delta started forming from 7.6 to 7.2 cal. ka BP during lowest rates of RSLR and sedimentation rates (A/S = 1.7 ± 0.2). Our record provides a case study of possible responses of modern delta systems under a spectrum of predicted sea-level rise scenarios and accompanying sedimentation rates. This study provides an estimated threshold A/S value of 1.7 for coastal retreat to inform policy and mitigation/adaptation measures for Singapore and a simple methodology to obtain local threshold values of other equatorial cities built on floodplain and/or delta systems.