Rice Self-sufficiency Research Articles

KETAHANAN PANGAN DAN BEBERAPA ASPEKNYA

Food self-sufficiency mainly for rice has been known since the old order regime by the implementation of five efforts to agricultural technology, seven, ten and suprainsus ones. In that condition Indonesia has been succeeded in rice self-sufficiency, therefore Indonesia got appreciation from FAO in 1984. In the reformation era, there was a new paradigm namely food security and in President Joko Widodo's regime known as food-sovereignty. In the first step to realized food security and sovereignty, Indonesia has to be able to food self-sufficiency, especially for rice. In that condition Indonesia has been succeeded in rice self-sufficiency in 1984, therefore Indonesia got appreciation from FAO. The main factors affected these paradigms as mentioned above were technical as agricultural technology and now technically ones as socially, economically and behavioral culture of farmer or community. The first factor easily to be solved because so many technologies have been resulted by the research institute, university and private, but the adoption of technology, which has been resulted in the farmer still not yet optimum. The second ones were more difficult to be solved due to the behavior of the farmer or community. Other than three aspects of food, food safety also necessary to be interested, because healthy food has to be free from bacteria and dangerous chemical substances. The success of all paradigms mentioned before not only need cooperation between agriculture and trade departments, but also other sides concern with all paradigms.

Moving toward Rice Self-Sufficiency in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030: Lessons Learnt from 10 Years of the Coalition for African Rice Development

The Coalition for African Rice Development (CARD) was initiated as policy framework with the aim of doubling rice production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period from 2008 to 2018. This paper assesses the contribution of the CARD policy to rice production and forecasts the local rice supply and demand for a better understanding of the policies needed to attain rice self-sufficiency by 2030. A combination of the autoregressive integrated moving average method and counterfactual approach was adopted using rice statistical data from 23 countries in SSA. Results showed that the contribution of CARD to paddy rice production in 2018 was 10.2 million ton, equivalent to 74% of target. This resulted from the increasing of area and yield by 23% and 19%, respectively. However, yield growth rate was not sustainable in almost two-third of countries. Investments on supply-push factors such as fertilizer and irrigation development, which was the focus in the past, have less effect on the rice production. We conclude that sustainable investments on demand-pull factors such as private-led modern milling sector and contract farming development should be prioritized for achieving rice self-sufficiency in SSA.

Mapping suitability for rice production in inland valley landscapes in Benin and Togo using environmental niche modeling

Inland valleys (IVs) in Africa are important landscapes for rice cultivation and are targeted by national governments to attain self-sufficiency. Yet, there is limited information on the spatial distribution of IVs suitability at the national scale. In the present study, we developed an ensemble model approach to characterize the IVs suitability for rainfed lowland rice using 4 machine learning algorithms based on environmental niche modeling (ENM) with presence-only data and background sample, namely Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Maximum Entropy (MAXNT) and Random Forest (RF). We used a set of predictors that were grouped under climatic variables, agricultural water productivity and soil water content, soil chemical properties, soil physical properties, vegetation cover, and socio-economic variables. The Area Under the Curves (AUC) evaluation metrics for both training and testing were respectively 0.999 and 0.873 for BRT, 0.866 and 0.816 for GLM, 0.948 and 0.861 for MAXENT and 0.911 and 0.878 for RF. Results showed that proximity of inland valleys to roads and urban centers, elevation, soil water holding capacity, bulk density, vegetation index, gross biomass water productivity, precipitation of the wettest quarter, isothermality, annual precipitation, and total phosphorus among others were major predictors of IVs suitability for rainfed lowland rice. Suitable IVs areas were estimated at 155,000–225,000 Ha in Togo and 351,000–406,000 Ha in Benin. We estimated that 53.8% of the suitable IVs area is needed in Togo to attain self-sufficiency in rice while 60.1% of the suitable IVs area is needed in Benin to attain self-sufficiency in rice. These results demonstrated the effectiveness of an ensemble environmental niche modeling approach that combines the strengths of several models.

Forecasting of rice self-sufficiency in the Benin Republic using ARIMA model

Rice is one of the staple foods in the Benin Republic. Annual rice consumption is increasing faster than annual rice production. That is why Benin is not yet self-sufficient in rice production. To meet the local demand, huge quantities of rice are imported. For country planning, forecasting is the main tool for predicting rice variables. This paper describes an empirical study that used a time series modeling approach (Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA model) to forecast rice production, rice consumption, rice importation, rice exportation and finally rice self-sufficiency in Benin. Based on ARIMA model, the rice self-sufficiency rate in Benin is forecasted to be 44%, 52%, 56%, 53% and 60% respectively in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The forecasts would be helpful for the policy makers to foresee ahead of time the future requirements of rice production, adopt appropriate measures to develop rice sector for effective rice self-sufficiency and to reduce rice importation.

Improving Upland Rice Production for Sustainability of Rice Self-Sufficiency in Ratanakiri Province, Cambodia

Improving Upland Rice Production for Sustainability of Rice Self-Sufficiency in Ratanakiri Province, Cambodia

Efficiency in the Rice Farming: Evidence from Northwest Bangladesh

Rice production takes a leading role in the agricultural sector of Bangladesh contributing to 35% of the gross value added of total agricultural production (December 2011), employing 48% of the rural workforce. While the country achieved self-sufficiency in rice, continuous population growth requires Bangladesh to further increase the production of this staple cereal. However, considering the steady decline of the cropped area and available rural workforce, such increase could be reached by increasing the efficiency in rice production. This study aims to examine the resource use efficiency and its drivers in the performance of rice farms in the Northwest region of Bangladesh, which is considered as the food bowl of the country. The study applied a two-stage approach of Data Envelopment Analysis followed by Ordinary Least Squares to estimate the impact of contextual variables on rice production. The empirical research results show that 83% of rice farms among the sample of 184 farms are efficient being located on efficiency frontier, while the 2% farms are inefficient and could improve their efficiency. The remaining 15% of farms are at level that is close to the efficiency frontier. Such factors as the cost of irrigation, pest control, and crop harvesting and carrying are the main drivers of efficiency amongst the considered rice farms.

An analysis of irrigated paddy land contribution to maintain regional self sufficiency of food (rice) at Bantul regency of the special province of Yogyakarta

Bantul Regency is a rice barn area for the Special Province of Yogyakarta. For a long time, this regency has been self-sufficient in rice. In the last five years, the conversion of irrigated rice fields has changed to become settlements at the rate of 81.2 ha a year as a result of the population growth rate of 2.04% a year. The study aimed to determine the contribution of irrigated land in maintaining regional rice self-sufficiency. The analytical methodology used applies the quantitative analytical description approach to estimate the rice supply-demand balance position for 2006-2015. The results were applied to predict the balance position for the next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years with 10 scenarios. The results showed that this regency had surplus of rice in 2006-2015 with self-sufficiency rate of 1.08-1.28. The realistic scenario simulation results showed that the rate of population growth causes the rice deficit to be wider and faster to occur. To prevent the occurrence of the rice deficit, control of land conversion and control of the population must be carried out simultaneously. Land use change also had a high risk for irrigation activities carried out because it caused changes in the water balance, losses to irrigation network infrastructure, lack of water in Planting Season II and Plating Season III.

DETERMINANTS SELF SUFFICIENCY OF RICE IN SUPPORTING FOOD INDEPENDENCE

The research objective is to determine the future trends of rice self-sufficiency and to know the factors that influence rice self-sufficiency so as to achieve food independence. Previous research reviews rice self-sufficiency in terms of production factors. In this study, price stability, rice supply and farmers' welfare are taken into account as research variables. The results showed that the trend of analysis with quadratic models to measure rice self-sufficiency tends to increase. Variables that influence rice self-sufficiency are rice productivity, rice supply stability, application of technology and dummy during the New Order government with reform. Whereas the gap between rice price and grain price, the level of rice consumption and the welfare of farmers, does not affect rice self-sufficiency. The conclusion of this research is that to increase rice self-sufficiency, it is necessary to increase rice productivity, ensure that government rice reserves are always available so as to stabilize food supply stability, and always develop appropriate technological innovations to support increased production.

PROYEKSI STOKASTIK PRODUKSI PADI DI INDONESIA

Rice is the staple food for Indonesian people and Indonesia was in self-sufficiency for rice in 1984. Based on the Agricultural Ministry’s Strategic Planning for 2015 – 2019, the government targeted that the self-sufficiency in rice in 2019 by 82,078 million tons of the rice production. It is better that the production is stochastically forecasted in form of the interval of projection possibility with the certain probability level. Therefore, the objective of this research is to know the growth of rice production and to stochastically forecast it. The data used in this research is the production of rice in the period of 1961 – 2015 obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), Indonesia. The research data is analyzed by econometric method. The result revealed that the rice production would be 77,487 million tons in 2019 and it was 95% confidence interval would be between 74,901 and 80,071 million tons. The growth rate of the rice production in 2018 – 2020 would be 0.6 percent per year. We could conclude that the government target of the rice production was higher than the result of stochastic forecasting.Key words: forecast, paddy, production

Self-Sufficiency and International Trade Policy Strategies in the Malaysian Rice Sector: Approaches to Food Security Using Spatial Partial Equilibrium Analysis

While the status quo of the national rice economy remains ambiguous, the Malaysian rice policy stand and tendency is more likely to move to a self- sufficiency strategy. Despite this, Malaysia has made an extreme policy decision to pursue an autarky economy in its primary staple, i.e., rice, thus closing its borders from international markets. The existing body of evidence shows that self-sufficiency is not an efficient policy strategy to address food security concerns and to alleviate poverty. Thus, this study evaluates and analyzes the impact of two alternative approaches to achieve food security. In particular, these approaches are through pursuing rice self-sufficiency and through free trade in rice. The results indicate that although Malaysia could achieve rice self-sufficiency, the net welfare impact on Malaysia would be negative and would be driven primarily by consumer welfare losses. This is because pursuing rice self-sufficiency may result in significantly higher rice prices, which would accordingly offset the gains acquired in producers’ welfare. On the other hand, free trade results in lower consumer prices and greater rice consumption. This would consequently increase consumers’ welfare and would yield a net welfare gain for Malaysia. However, this approach may deteriorate producer welfare due to higher import competition and lower producer prices.

Cellular Automata Markov Method, An Approach for Rice Self-Sufficiency Projection

Cellular Automata Markov Method, An Approach for Rice Self-Sufficiency Projection

Factors Affecting the Adoption of Hybrid and High-Yielding Rice Varieties in the Philippines

The Philippines has recently been aiming to achieve self-sufficiency in rice. Recent programs and policies have been anchored on the development and adoption of high-yielding rice varieties in order to achieve this goal. Thus, this paper aims to identify the factors that significantly affect the farmers’ adoption of high-yielding varieties such as hybrid and certified inbred rice. Using a multinomial logistic model, these factors were estimated. Results show that the age, input assistance, and collective marketing significantly affect the adoption of certified inbred rice over farmers’ recycled seeds. On the other hand, irrigation, farm size, and trainings significantly affect the adoption of hybrid over farmer’s recycled seeds. In general, there was a low adoption rate of hybrid rice. Key informant interviews revealed that several issues arise in the process of seed growing, production, and marketing. Therefore, to increase the farmers’ incentive to adopt hybrid rice, a hybrid variety that produces superior grain quality and resistance to stresses must be developed and distributed at a reasonable price.

Impacts of climate change on self-sufficiency of rice in China: A CGE-model-based evidence with alternative regional feedback mechanisms

Climate change would pose a direct and severe challenge to China's rice production and self-sufficiency. Here we use Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the self-sufficiency of rice in China due to 2 °C rise in temperature, and further analyze the impact and transmission mechanisms of climate change through market and trade. Our simulation method switches different regional mechanisms in the GTAP model by employing alternative closures and scenarios. Our results suggest that the fluctuation in rice price is much larger than that of rice production. The active regional feedback mechanism has much larger effects than the passive one in assessing climate change impacts. With the passive regional feedback mechanism (Single Regional General Equilibrium, SRGE and Multi-Regional General Equilibrium with China's shock, MRGE_C), China's rice export would decrease by more than 8%, and import would increase by over 5%, which leads to a decrease in rice self-sufficiency by more than 0.06 percentage points. With the active regional feedback mechanism (Multi-Regional General Equilibrium with global shock, MRGE_W), climate change will increase China's rice export by 2.7% as rising rice exports to South Korea overweight the export decrease to other countries, concurrently, China's rice import would decrease by 0.04%, which leads to a slight increase in rice self-sufficiency. As a whole, climate change will not severely threaten China's rice self-sufficiency. By the decomposition analysis, climate change impacts on China's rice self-sufficiency mainly depend on the changes in China's domestic rice production. Interestingly, the source of China's rice import will switch from Vietnam to Pakistan under MRGE_W, which derives from the input structure of paddy rice and rice sectors in different countries.

Persepsi Petani terhadap Program Upaya Khusus Peningkatan Produksi Padi, Jagung, dan Kedelai (Kasus Teknologi SRI di Subak Lungatad, Desa Peguyangan Kangin, Kecamatan Denpasar Utara, Kota Denpasar)

Perception of Farmers on Special Efforts to Increase Rice, Corn and SoybeanProduction (The Case of SRI Technology in Subak Lungatad,Peguyangan Kangin Village, Denpasar City)The need for food is one of the main aspects for the survival of society. Special Foodfor food self-sufficiency 2015-2017 is the effort of the Ministry of Agriculture tosucceed in self-sufficiency in rice, corn, soybeans in 2017. One of the hopes as the bestsolution for agriculture in Indonesia in increasing production is through a method offarming patterns with the System of Rice Intensification (SRI). The purpose of thisstudy was to find out the perception of farmers on the Upsus Pajale program, especiallySRI technology in Subak Lungatad, Peguyangan Kangin Village, North DenpasarDistrict. The number of samples was 30 farmers. The data were gathered throughquestionnaires using quantitative and qualitative data types. The data that had beenprocessed were further analyzed using qualitative descriptive analysis method.Research results show that the farmers' perceptions of SRI technology: (1) innovationwas in good category with a score of 3.96, (2) social aspects were in good category witha score of 3.61, (3) economic aspects were in good category with a score of 4.09. And(4) the technical/ environmental aspects were also in the good category with a score of3.48.Based on the results of the research and conclusions obtained, the suggestion that can bemade to the government is that they should provide more input on the SRI plantingsystem, both through technical guidance, field practice (making demonstration plots)and mentoring during each planting season, so that the results achieved could berailored to the expectations of all parties. It is also recommended that they should paymore attention to the rice sales system which is currently being sold using a slashsystem, with the calculation using the area (acre), thus making it difficult for farmers toobtain optimal benefits.

Closing yield gaps for rice self-sufficiency in China

China produces 28% of global rice supply and is currently self-sufficient despite a massive rural-to-urban demographic transition that drives intense competition for land and water resources. At issue is whether it will remain self-sufficient, which depends on the potential to raise yields on existing rice land. Here we report a detailed spatial analysis of rice production potential in China and evaluate scenarios to 2030. We find that China is likely to remain self-sufficient in rice assuming current yield and consumption trajectories and no reduction in production area. A focus on increasing yields of double-rice systems on general, and in three single-rice provinces where yield gaps are relatively large, would provide greatest return on investments in research and development to remain self-sufficient. Discrepancies between results from our detailed bottom-up yield-gap analysis and those derived following a top-down methodology show that the two approaches would result in very different research and development priorities.

Rice Supply Patterns in Kalimantan Selatan: Part of solution for regional food security

South Kalimantan is a largest rice producer in Kalimantan island. More than five years its rice met by their own production, moreover it has supplied to other area such as Kalimantan Tengah, Kalimantan Timur and Kalimantan Utara. In many studies, rice stocks play a critical role in determining the regional’s food security. In recent issues, rice stocks has a wide impact on an array of economic, political, societal stabilities. Unfortunately, most of the land in Kalimantan Selatan is classified as wetlands, where the land productivity is low. Therefore, this study analyzes rice supply patterns in Kalimantan Selatan in order to provide policies development toward rice self-sufficiency. This research is using system dynamics approach to explore the system which then develop any alternatives of rice policies. Eventually, this study provides evidences for the need to consider rice supply system in the regional’s food security policies.

The Identification of Priority Food Potential in Pidie District

In this study the priority food studied is rice commodity. The area of rice commodity production centers is based on Location Quotient (LQ) consists of 11 sub-districts: Glumpang Baro, Mutiara, Tangse, Keumala, Mila, Delima, Peukan Baro, Kembang Tanjong, Simpang Tiga, Batee and Muara Tiga. Meanwhile for the buffer sub-districts for rice production, it is become the government priority to support and encourage agricultural development in the food sector as sub-districts included in the priority list of rice commodity development in Pidie District in an effort to support national rice self-sufficiency.

Rice Postharvest Technology in Nigeria: An Overview of Current Status, Constraints and Potentials for Sustainable Development

In 2016, the total estimated paddy production in Nigeria was 17.5 million metric tons (MMT) which is equivalent to 5.7 MMT milled rice. This is 1.3 MMT lower than the projected 7.0 MMT national consumption demands. This implies that Nigeria is progressing towards achieving self-sufficiency in rice if this data is compared with 3.5 MMT milled rice production in 2010. But about 10% - 30% or more of this increase does not reach the final consumers largely due to inefficient postharvest management practices. Huge postharvest grain loss (PHGL) and postharvest grain quality loss (PGQL) have been reported and significant efforts have been made towards reducing them and improving food security, but this is hampered by lack of simple, cost effective, adoptable and well-defined practical postharvest management practices and technologies. This situation has presented huge opportunity for investment and strategic interventions. From the point of harvest till rice reaches the consumers table, rice passes through wide range of unit operations which may have impact on the quantity and quality of the milled rice, these have made value chain actors adopt different practices to manage the process as it passes through the various unit operations. This paper examines the current rice post-harvest management technologies in Nigeria, with attention focusing on the current practices, constraints militating against the improvement of the rice postharvest system and opportunities it presents for improvement taking into account the main contribution of the research and development organizations in solving rice postharvest related challenges and lessons to be learned that will sharpen future direction for sustainable development.

Analysis of Rice Imports in Indonesia: AIDS approach

Rice is a staple food for Indonesian households. After achieving self-sufficiency of rice in 1984, Indonesia still had to import rice because the domestic rice consumption always exceeded the domestic rice production. This study attempts to analyze a rice import during the 1998-2014 period. The rice import was analyzed based on the main partner of Indonesian rice imports encompassing of Vietnam, Thailand, USA, Other countries. This research applied the demand system method using Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). The results indicate that price elasticity of rice import from Vietnam and Thailand was inelastic while from other countries, they were elastic. Based on the expenditure elasticity of rice import, rice is the normal goods for rice import from Thailand and USA. The policy simulation shows that the increase in the price of rice import leads to the decrease of rice import. However, rice import from certain countries such as Thailand still increase. Rice is the staple food, therefore, the government must set up policy to increase domestic rice production for reducing dependency on rice imports.

The Impact of Price Subsidy on Rice Self-Sufficiency Level in Malaysia: A System Dynamics Approach

The Malaysian government had targeted for the rice industry in the country to achieve 100% rice self-sufficiency where Malaysia’s rice self-sufficiency level (SSL) is currently at 65% to 75%. Thus, the government had implemented few policies to increase the rice production in Malaysia to meet the growing demand of rice. This paper focus on analyzing the impact of price subsidy on the rice production system in Malaysia using a system dynamics modelling approach. Scenario analysis was conducted using the developed system dynamics model by making changes on the price subsidy and observe the impact of the changes on the rice production and rice SSL. The developed system dynamics model offers better understanding of the effect of price subsidy on the rice self-sufficiency level. Based on the scenario analysis, the result shows that a 50% increase in the price subsidy leads to a substantial increase in demand as the rice price drops. Accordingly, the local production increases by 15%. However, the SSL slightly decreases as the local production is insufficient to meet the large demand.